Okay, so, the list has been revealed – now, let’s talk about some of the questions that came up during the last week, including about some of the more notable guys that didn’t make it.

Probably the most discussion centered around Roy Halladay. He is unquestionably the best pitcher in baseball today, and the contract he just signed with the Phillies is both below his market value and short enough to not saddle a team with a potential albatross. He’s a highly valuable asset, no doubt. However, as we just saw over the last year, the actual market for Halladay’s services is significantly smaller than the theoretical one, because he holds a full no-trade clause that he puts to maximum use.

The Blue Jays spent months working on potential deals for their ace, but in the end, they were limited to just a few options, as Halladay’s NTC ruled out most of the teams in baseball as potential trade partners. Because of his selectiveness, there’s just no way the Phillies could drum up enough of a competition for his services to get one of the guys from this list in return. We just saw Toronto work for months to deal Halladay, eventually settling for multiple guys nowhere near this list in value, and they had to pick up a significant portion of his 2010 salary in order to pull that off.

He’s a great pitcher, the best in baseball, and he’s underpaid relative to the market. But part of why he’s underpaid is because he’s not willing to open himself up to go to any of the 30 MLB teams, limiting the potential demand for his services. That gets reflected in his actual trade value, and is the main reason why he didn’t make the list.

The other name pitcher who didn’t make the cut was Dan Haren. While his ERA is higher than usual this year, his underlying performance shows that he’s still one of the better pitchers in the game, and he’s proven to be a durable workhorse. However, when I talked with folks in MLB about him, the reaction to what they’d give up for him was surprisingly lukewarm.

The main issue that was brought up is that he’s a guy whose best skill is command and has achieved most of his success in the National League. There’s a good amount of skepticism about NL arms without top-shelf stuff, and Haren was lumped into that category. Combine that with his escalating salaries (he’s due $40 million over the next three seasons), and I just couldn’t get anyone in the game to get very excited about giving up premium talent to acquire him.

I was pretty surprised, honestly. He started out in the 30s on my original list, but by the end of the weekend, he just missed the cut. The sense that I got in Anaheim was that guys like us like him more than major league teams do.

Moving on to the hitters who didn’t make the cut, there’s one group that certainly took a beating from where they ranked last year – young, athletic center fielders. Last year, Grady Sizemore (#12), Matt Kemp (#14), Adam Jones (#19), B.J. Upton (#21), and Curtis Granderson (#22) all scored very highly in this series. This year, none of them made the cut, as almost all of them have taken steps backwards in their development (and Sizemore got hurt).

Maybe it’s just a coincidence that five somewhat similar players have all regressed in the last year. That’s certainly possible. Also possible – I overrated that particular skillset. Besides Sizemore, all of those guys have issues making contact and general problems with the strike zone, which has been exploited by MLB pitchers this year. For all their physical gifts, they had a pretty big flaw, which was perhaps too easily overlooked by focusing on what they did well.

For those arguing for Carlos Gonzalez’s inclusion on this year’s list, I’d suggest those guys offer a pretty significant warning. Aggressive hitters can be easy outs when pitchers figure out how to get them to chase, and it takes a pretty special talent to succeed long term with that approach.

Thanks for participating, everyone. It was a fun exercise, and we’ll do it again next summer. And yes, by popular demand, coming later this week – the 10 least valuable assets in baseball. Look for that on Thursday.

Last week, David Ortiz expressed his desire for a multi-year extension from the Red Sox. After a down season in 2009 and a dreadful start to 2010, Ortiz’s bat has come around, and he is currently hitting .256/.376/.538 (.384 wOBA) on the season. Ortiz says he doesn’t want to deal with the uncertainty of a one-year deal, a clear reference to his current situation, as the Red Sox hold a $12.5 million dollar club option for 2011 with no buyout. It might annoy some people for Ortiz to complain not-so-subtly about a contract to which he himself agreed, but that’s the nature of these things. To invoke the inevitable cliché: it’s a business.

Putting aside the notion of a multi-year deal, what about that club option? Let’s begin with one reminder: while Ortiz is in his mid-thirties and in 2009 (particularly the first half) performed abysmally, Marcel and the other projection system rightly see one year as a relatively limited sample. Prior to the start of 2010 only ZiPS saw Ortiz comeing close to his current production (projecting a .380 2010 wOBA), but neither Marcels nor CHONE saw Ortiz’s bat as dead, both projecting him for the mid-.360s — not his usual standard, but still useful even at DH. Where does Ortiz’s projected true talent stand now? ZiPS updated RoS projections see him as a .383 wOBA hitter, or about +25 runs over a full season. CHONE’s July 1 Update has him as a +23 hitter at the moment. once adjusting for position and replacement level, 2.5 WAR a season seems to be the appropriate estimate for his likely true talent — a very good hitter with no position; a bit above average as a player overall.

But what about 2011? Ortiz turns 35 in the off-season, and is carrying a piano on his back, as Bill James once wrote of Mo Vaughn. Nonetheless, let’s simply attribute to him the standard 0.5 win-a-season decline due to injury risk and skill attrition, making 2 WAR is a fair estimate of his projected 2011 value. If each marginal win is worth 4 million dollars on the open market this season, and we assume a 10% inflation, then he’s likely worth about nine million on the open market next season — more than three million dollars less than his club option. Even if one assumes that the cost of a marginal win will inflate by 25% next season (to five million dollars), he still would be overpaid. If one assumes the 25% inflation and no decline from the massive slugger in his mid-30s, $12.5 million would be a market-value deal, but that’s not the kind of thinking that made Boston’s front office one of the best in baseball.

Now, if Ortiz were to agree to a multi-year contract at a lower annual salary, that might work out for the Red Sox. That doesn’t seem like a likely scenario, however, given that players rarely go for pay cuts. Boston does have the second-largest payroll in baseball, but they they don’t usually fill it with excessive or sentimental contracts. They might want to pursue Prince Fielder in the off-season (assuming he’s available from the Brewers or whichever team he’s on at that point) or perhaps they can revisit their seemingly never-ending (and long-rumored) quest for Adrian Gonzalez. Whatever the case may be, in the wake of the glory he brought to the franchise through his Home Run Derby victory, the Red Sox should plan on honoring at least the first part of Big Papi’s wish during the coming off-season by freeing him from his 2011 club option.

Coming out of the All-Star break the Tigers had a chance to change the landscape of the AL Central. The two other teams in the race, the White Sox and the Twins, faced off against each other, while the Tigers took on the last-place Indians. The Twins did their part to change the standings by taking three of four, but the Tigers could not capitalize. They left Cleveland without a win. So while the AL Central landscape did change, it did not benefit Detroit. Instead, the weekend series left them with a woeful road record of 16-29, which is worse than all but six teams in the league. Those six teams reside in the cellars of their respective divisions.

The team’s road troubles, unsurprisingly, come from both the offense and the pitching. As a team the Tigers have a 5.22 road ERA, worst in the AL. They’ve started seven pitchers for more than two games on the road and the lowest ERA of the bunch, 4.94, belongs to a guy no longer on the team, Dontrelle Willis. Tigers pitchers allow opponents to get on base when on the road, recording a .355 OBP-against that ranks second to last in the AL and a 1.49 WHIP that ranks third to last.

At home, the pitching staff is much better. It has a collective 3.53 ERA, good for fourth in the AL. Its OBP against falls to .318 at home, which is right in the middle of the AL pack. Its WHIP is also middle of the pack at 1.31. Those starters with inflated ERAs on the road perform much better at home. The highest ERA of those with more than two home starts is Dontrelle at 5.03. Of the active Tigers Rick Porcello leads the way at 4.37.

On offense, the Tigers have something of a power problem on the road. When away from Comerica Park the team is slugging .394 with a .133 ISO. At home they’re a bit better: a .445 SLG with a .159 ISO. There is also a .017 difference in BABIP, which helps account for the .025 difference in AVG. Even still, that puts the Tigers in a decent position, eighth in the AL in road SLG and fifth in road OBP. In other words, the offense might be worse on the road than at home, but that doesn’t make them totally bad on the road. First-place Texas, for instance, ranks ninth in road OBP and 12th in road SLG among AL teams.

The chances for a turnaround, then, seem to rest on the pitching staff. The good news is that despite the AL-worst road ERA, the staff actually has a decent road FIP, 4.05. If the Tigers’ ERA and FIP matched, they would have allowed only 172 earned runs on the road rather than 221. If we give them 181 total runs, that would leave them with a run differential of -3, which puts them in a much better position. If the Tigers can manage that kind of performance in the second half (even though they’ve gotten off to a bad start), they can continue making the AL Central a three-team shootout.

Then again, if they’re going to improve on the road they’ll also have to maintain some of their lofty production at home. At 32-13, the Tigers have a better home record than every team in baseball except Atlanta, and even then it’s a one-loss difference. Unsurprisingly, the team home ERA is considerably lower than its FIP, 3.53 to 3.91. Using the same method as above, that would translate to roughly 187 runs allowed. That’s good for a run differential of +44, or a .604 winning percentage.

Where does that leave the Tigers? If we correct for terrible pitching luck on the road and do the same for their home pitching performance, we get a rough estimate of a .553 winning percentage, which is actually a bit better than where they’re at right now. We can’t exactly expect the Tigers to start pitching more to their FIP either at home or on the road — who knows how long their poor and good luck situations can last — but it also looks like the Tigers might stick around in the second half despite their -2 run differential.

After getting those four games in Cleveland out of the way the Tigers have 36 games remaining on the road and 36 at home. If their current paces continue, obviously, they’ll stay in the same place, a .533 win percentage that probably won’t be good enough to win the division. But what can they do if they’re going to make a run? The team sports similar FIP numbers on the road and at home, yet have realized far worse results on the road. That doesn’t seem like something they can actively correct. Maybe they’ll add a piece or two, but for the most part they’ll have to wait it out. If their luck turns around we could see a compelling AL Central race. If it doesn’t, we might be tuning into the Twins and White Sox show come September.

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20-#16
#15-#11
#10-#6

#5 – Dustin Pedroia, 2B, Boston

Whether it is his size or the fact that he is overshadowed by other players on his team, Pedroia still hardly ever gets the recognition for being one of the best players in baseball. But he is one of the best in baseball at making contact while still hitting for power, and he rounds out his game by drawing walks, stealing bases at a high success rate, and playing excellent defense at second base. Over all, the package adds up to a +5 to +6 win player in his prime. Oh, and he’s under contract for the next five years at a total of $44 million – the last year is voided if he’s traded, but still, 4/33 for what Pedroia brings to the table is a huge bargain.

#4 – Hanley Ramirez, SS, Florida

Yet another guy for whom it was pretty tough to find a final spot. Ramirez obviously brings positives to the table, as he is an offensive monster for a shortstop, especially compared with the current group that comprises his peers. He’s a five tool player producing at a premium position, and at just 26 years of age, he could get even better. And yet, he’s had some pretty public issues with management and is still not considered the hardest worker around. Further his contract is no longer dirt cheap, as he’ll be paid $57 million over the next four years. The performance and talent, however, is too impressive to have him any lower on this list, as teams would gladly put up with Ramirez’s warts in order to get a shortstop with a career .394 wOBA.

#3 – Stephen Strasburg, SP, Washington

This may be as high as any pitcher will ever rank on this list. Strasburg has been nothing short of sensational so far in the big leagues, posting a ridiculous 2.11 xFIP in his first eight starts. His stuff is better than anyone in baseball, and it’s hard to see hitters figuring him out as long as he keeps throwing this hard. Oh, and the Nationals control his rights through 2016. He won’t make any serious money for another three years, so for now, the Nationals get one of the game’s best pitchers at about 5 percent of his market value. But, as with any pitcher, the risks are significant. The superlatives could all disappear with one pitch, as it has for so many phenoms before him. Pitcher attrition would keep other teams from giving up the kitchen sink to get Strasburg, but as good as he is, the refrigerator is probably on the table.

#2 – Jason Heyward, OF, Atlanta

The year’s other phenom, Heyward isn’t as good as Strasburg right now, but he’s a hitter, and that makes all the difference in the world when assigning risk. At just 20 years old, he’s already shown he’s ready for the big leagues, flashing both patience and power at the plate. He’s far from a finished product, but the skills are there for him to become the game’s premier outfielder. It may come sooner than later, in fact. Because the Braves brought him up at the start of the season, they “only” control his rights through 2015, but that’s still five more years of team control for the game’s best young talent who still can’t drink. Almost everyone who is this good at this age becomes a superstar, and few doubt that Heyward is headed that way.

#1 – Evan Longoria, 3B, Tampa Bay

In May, when Heyward was going nuts, I asked my fellow FG authors if they thought there was an argument for Longoria to get displaced from the top spot. The answer – no, that contract is still too ridiculous. And,upon a another look, it is. Despite being one of the game’s premier players, Longoria will make $2 million next year. Over the next six years, he’ll be paid $42 million, or about 25 percent of his market value, which is just crazy. No player in the game provides the same performance for anything close to this kind of cost, and I don’t know that there’s an offer out there that would make Tampa Bay trade their third baseman. Unless Heyward turns into the best player in the game next year, I’m not sure Longoria will be ceding this spot to anyone for quite some time. His contract is the most team friendly deal any player has ever signed.

So, that’s the 2010 Trade Value series. I’ll do another post at 5 pm talking about some of the questions that arose from the list, such as why I left off Roy Halladay and Dan Haren, and look at some of the guys who disappeared from last year’s list.

At 49-43, the Minnesota Twins are engaged in a three-team battle for the A.L. Central crown. The Twins are 1.5 games back of the resurgent Chicago White Sox following yesterday’s victory over the Pale Hose (the Detroit Tigers also sit a game and a half back of the division lead). There is essentially no chance that the Wild Card comes out of anywhere but the AL East, so it’s division title or bust for the Twins. The club’s odds of playing postseason baseball — currently 36 percent according to Cool Standings — are heavily influenced by Justin Morneau’s return to health. But the Twins could also use a return to 2008 form from Kevin Slowey.

A second-round pick out of Winthrop in the 2005 draft, Slowey has always boasted off-the-charts control. He issued just 1.3 walks per nine innings in the minors, punching out 8.8 per nine, and surrendering 0.5 HR/9 despite a low ground ball rate. According to Minor League Splits, Slowey induced grounders 41.1 percent of the time on the farm, but many of the fly balls hit against him were weak — his infield fly rate was 19.5 percent.

Slowey made his big league debut in 2007, tossing 66.2 innings with 6.35 K/9, 1.49 BB/9, and a 4.78 xFIP. He owned one of the five lowest ground ball rates among pitchers with 60+ IP, at 28.9 percent. Converesely, the low number of grounders led to lots of round trippers — Slowey gave up 2.16 HR/9. The prospect often compared to Brad Radke had a higher-than usual home run per fly ball rate (13.3 percent), but with so few grounders and ample fly balls hit, homers figured to be a big problem for Slowey if hitters continued to loft the ball so often.

The next year, Slowey’s ground ball rate increased (relatively speaking), and he posted a 4.02 xFIP in 160.1 innings after coming back from an early-season biceps strain. Since then, Slowey’s xFIP has gone in the wrong direction: in 2009, he had a 4.23 mark in 90.2 IP before right wrist surgery ended his season in July, and he currently holds a 4.68 xFIP in 100 innings this season. Slowey’s control remains superb, though he’s walking slightly more hitters (1.35 BB/9 in ’08, 1.49 BB/9 in ’09, and 1.71 BB/9 this year). His K rate, 6.9 per nine in 2008 and 7.44 per nine in 2009, is also a little worse than usual at 6.3 K/9. Another disconcerting sign for Slowey is his ground ball rate.

I used Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site to find Slowey’s batted ball distribution over the 2008 to 2010 seasons. I also included the MLB averages for pitchers, provided by Harry Pavlidis at The Hardball Times. These numbers differ from the BIS data on Slowey’s player page, but you’ll note a clear change in his batted ball profile:

(Note: Pitch F/X is showing more of Slowey’s fastballs as “sinkers” this season. It seems like this could be a classification change by Pitch F/X instead of a change on Slowey’s part, so I decided to lump all his fastballs together. For the purposes of this article, the MLB averages for the fastball are for four-seamers.)

Slowey’s ground ball rate, already low, has declined sharply. Some of those grounders have been replaced by pop ups, particularly in 2009. But this season, Slowey’s giving up lots of balls classified as flies and liners, which is not a happy development, given that fly balls typically have a slugging percentage between .550 and .600 (Slowey’s career SLG% on fly balls is .639) and liners fall for hits about 72 to 73 percent of the time (about 75 percent for Slowey).

Is Slowey doing anything different in terms of pitch selection this season? He is using his fastball less often, in favor of mid-80’s sliders and mid-70’s curveballs:

Using Lefkowitz’s Pitch F/X tool, I broke down Slowey’s batted ball distribution by pitch type:

Read the rest of this entry »

Billy Wagner turns 40 on the 25th of this month. His left arm, attached to a 5’10” frame, has tossed more than 870 innings and more than 8,300 pitches since 2002. The used car of free agent closers, the Braves allowed Mike Gonzalez to walk and traded Rafael Soriano for a crack at Wagner. Further, they even gave up their first round pick to sign Wagner to a one-year deal with a club option for 2011. A year ago, it would not have been the least bit surprising if Wagner retired. Right now, he could be fishing or resting that arm for good. Instead, Wagner is shining with the opulence of a newly christened game-saving prince from the nicest of Bobby Cox’s ninth inning dreams.

Velocity is a measure of speed that holds no grasp on age. That much is apparent from Wagner’s mid-to-upper 90 MPH heater. Depowering batters since the middle of the 1990s, Wagner is 39 appearances into the campaign and holds the best ERA through that mark of his career. ERA is hardly the best earmark of a good pitcher, but it works for a trivial purpose like this:

1997: 1.54
1998: 2.79
1999: 2.18
2001: 3.00
2002: 3.14
2003: 1.85
2004: 2.55
2005: 2.23
2006: 2.59
2007: 1.52
2008: 2.25
2010: 1.17

FIP supports that Wagner has pitched extremely well. His 2.12 figure would actually be the second best seasonal total of his career, which is a bit breath-taking within itself. Wagner gets lost in the shuffle with Mariano Rivera doing his thing as the premier salt-and-pepper whiskered closer, but he’s right there with him. Evidently Wagner is talking about retiring at season’s end.

Braves fans should convince him to reconsider given how he’s pitching.

On Saturday, August 7th, FanGraphs and River Avenue Blues are hosting their first ever Live Discussion. The event will consist of three hours of conversation about baseball, analysis of the sport, and how the game is covered. Hosting the event will be David Appelman and Dave Cameron of FanGraphs along with Joe Pawlikowski, Benjamin Kabak, and Mike Axisa of River Ave Blues.

Notable guests include former Deadspin editor and author Will Leitch, baseball consultant and analyst Mitchel Lichtman, Boston Herald writer Michael Silverman, WEEI contributor Alex Speier, Bloomberg Sports team leader Jonah Keri, Wall Street Journal writer David Biderman, as well as other writers from FanGraphs and around the web. This is your chance to talk baseball with analysts and fellow fans of the game.

A ticket to the event will cost $15, and can be purchased here. The event will be held from 9 am to 12 pm at the Florence Gould Hall, 55 East 59th Street, New York, New York.

Join us for a morning of baseball conversation that will entertain and enlighten.

Young players in baseball are always expected to improve. If a player falters from year one to year two, then the phenomenon is labeled a “sophomore slump” rather than what it likely is; a regression towards the player’s true talent level. For an example of what people think of as the textbook definition of a young player improving, take a certain member of the Reds. This is Jay Bruce’s third big league season. He improved from year one to year two and has since improved even more from year two to year three. At age 23, he seems to be on the right track towards projected stardom.

The most glaring improvement for Bruce is his offense. His wOBA in 2008 was .328 and in 2009 he raised that by a single point. In 2010, though, he’s up to .338. In large part because of a BABIP that sits .102 points higher than last season. Think about that for a moment: 10.2% more of Bruce’s balls in play are turning into hits. What a silly thought and reality.

Bruce appears to be a good fielder too. Perhaps the most surprising aspect of his game is on the basepaths. No, he’s not much of a basestealer. In 2006 he stole 19 bases in 117 games. Since then, he’s stolen 30 in nearly 500 games spanning multiple levels. That’s not the surprising part. Instead it’s Bruce’s ability to take the extra base. Baseball-Reference tracks this measure and the definition of what constitutes and extra base is pretty simple: it’s any advancement where the lead runner isn’t forced by the player behind him. Say Bruce is on first base when a single is hit into right field, if Bruce takes second and third during the run of play, he’s credited with an extra base taken.

Take the speediest runners; guys like Carl Crawford (47%), B.J. Upton (53%), and Ichiro Suzuki (42%) and they don’t compare to Bruce’s season. Take the most heads-up baserunners; like Scott Rolen (51%), J.D. Drew (46%), and even Pete Rose (49%) and they don’t compare. That’s because Bruce is taking the extra base 70% of the time this season. Incredulously Bruce only ranks fourth in the majors of players with at least 150 plate appearances to date behind Cameron Maybin, Seth Smith, and Alexis Rios (and just ahead of Chase Utley).

Baseball Prospectus keeps track of similar numbers and offers a run value of 2.1 (eighth best in the bigs) on Bruce’s hit advancement plays. All told, Bruce’s baserunning is valued at a little under a run because of a huge penalty in other areas of advancing; such as running after a ball is caught by an outfielder or scoring from third on a sac fly attempt. Given his ability advance otherwise I checked the rest of the Reds’ numbers to see if this might be a team-wide philosophy (i.e. don’t risk getting doubled up on one play) but that doesn’t seem to be the case.

So Bruce is good when it comes to taking an extra base on hits, but awful when it comes to taking a base on outs. Unless he has no confidence in his ability to accelerate (which makes no sense given his other numbers) or he’s getting a heavier than expected distribution of easy-to-advance on hits I really can’t think of an explanation.

What have the Reds fans in the crowd noticed?

In his latest column, Jon Heyman relays the asking price for Diamondbacks ace Dan Haren. According to Heyman’s source, Arizona wants “two starting pitchers plus bullpen help” back for the ace. That’s a pretty staggering asking price, and one that probably precludes any team actually completing a trade for Haren.

What it really comes down to, though, is that Haren is just a phenomenally good pitcher. The only pitcher (starter or reliever) that ZiPS projects to beat Haren’s projected 4.95 K/BB ratio is Roy Halladay, at 5.71. Haren has posted four straight seasons at or above 4.0 WAR and looks prepared to do it again, with 2.6 WAR through the All-Star break. Certainly, with the Diamondbacks completely out of it and Cliff Lee set with the Texas Rangers, Haren looks like the ultimate prize on the market.

That is, if there was any reason whatsoever for Arizona to consider moving him. Haren is locked up through 2012 for a mere $25.5 million and, barring injury or collapse, should be a good bargain in 2013 with a $15.5 million team option. The 3.26 FIP that ZiPS projects is a roughly 5.5-6-win mark over a full season, making Haren about a $24-27 million player. He has a tremendous value both in terms of pure talent and in terms of his contract – the fact that he turns 30 in September is probably the major reason he doesn’t factor into our trade value rankings.

It seems to me that the ridicluous request of two starters and bullpen help is simply Arizona’s way of saying that Haren is untouchable. Although Arizona’s situation looks hopeless right now, they aren’t terribly far away from competing in 2011, 2012, or 2013, either. They have a legitimate superstar locked up in Justin Upton. Chris Snyder is under control until 2014 at catcher. Edwin Jackson is a decent mid-rotation pitcher. Mark Reynolds has tremendous power and is locked up until 2013. They have a variety of solid position players and starting pitchers. The bullpen, however, has been atrocious, and the unit’s historically bad -7.26 WPA is almost the complete reason for the team’s .382 winning percentage.

It’s certainly not going to be easy to fix all the holes that they have, but patching up a bullpen is much easier than attempting to add an ace or a superstar slugger. It may take more than one season, but there’s reason to believe that the core in Arizona can compete soon. Right now, it appears that the interim management in the desert knows that Dan Haren is going to be a major factor in any Diamondbacks team that competes any time in the near future.

Introduction
#50-#46
#45-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26
#25-#21
#20-#16
#15-#11

#10 – Chase Utley, 2B, Philadelphia

Probably the best all-around player in baseball, Utley is a true superstar. He’s a +7 win player who does everything well. There are legitimately no flaws in his game. The only reason he’s even this low is his age, as he’ll be 34 when the remainder of the three years on his contract are up. Second baseman generally don’t last much past their mid-30s, and Utley’s body is showing some signs of wear and tear, even if it hasn’t affected his play on the field yet. Still, over those next three seasons, he’s going to be extremely valuable, signed to a deal that pays him about half of what he’s actually worth. He’s the real franchise player in Philadelphia.

#9 – Josh Johnson, SP, Florida

The Marlins ace has gone from a good arm to a true #1 starter, dominating with classic power stuff. If you haven’t seen him pitch, you’re missing out. The fastball has both velocity and movement, the slider is a knockout, and the change-up plays up because of how hard he throws it. He’s also a massive dude at 6’7 and 250 pounds, which is the kind of frame teams look for in frontline workhorses. The only blemish is his arm problems from 2007, but he has shown zero ill effects since coming back two years ago. He just signed a three year extension over the winter that pays him only $35 million over the next three years, a fraction of what he would command as a free agent. One of the game’s premier pitchers, the Marlins asking price for him would be almost unthinkable.

#8 – Joey Votto, 1B, Cincinnati

While people talk about what Adrian Gonzalez would command in a trade, imagine if he was just 26 years of age and had three more seasons before he became a free agent. You don’t have to wonder what that would look like – just look at Votto, who is basically the same player, just with a much better contract situation. He’s a beast of a hitter, a true middle-of-the-order slugger who can pound the baseball but doesn’t chase pitches out of the zone. Given the going rate of power hitters, Votto’s should be a huge bargain through 2013. I can’t imagine any scenario where the Reds would trade him at this point.

#7 – Jon Lester, SP, Boston

Lester squeaks in front of Johnson mostly due to his contract, which pays him just $38 million through 2014, but it’s not like he’s chopped liver on the mound either. The Red Sox lefty continues to establish himself as one of the game’s best left-handers, and it’s hard to question the work ethic or desire of a guy who has already beaten cancer. His stuff may not be as initially intimidating as a guy like Johnson’s, but he mixes his pitches well and everything moves. This allows him to pitch like more of a power guy even though he doesn’t light up the radar guns as often as others. The Red Sox ability to control one of the game’s elite pitchers at such a low cost gives them a huge advantage in the ultra-competitive AL East.

#6 – Seattle Mariners, Org, Seattle

Self-explanatory…

Okay, fine, here’s the real #6.

#6 – Ryan Zimmerman, 3B, Washington

If there’s one ranking from last year I regret, it’s having him 43rd on the list. That was just not a good call. This is where he belongs as one of the game’s best players, and a guy who every team in baseball would covet. Just 25 years of age, he’s already a +6 win player thanks to his combination of offensive and defensive skills, and he’s signed through 2013 for a grand total of just $35 million. He looks like a bargain at this rate, but he may not be done developing yet – the scary part about Zimmerman is that there’s room for more improvement. At this price, the current performance and ability to provide even more in the future makes Zimmerman one of the game’s best values.