Earlier this season I mused that life was unfair because Bruce Chen had a bullpen job and Russ Springer did not. Today, life is still unfair as Chen has a rotation spot. Springer, though, is back in the thick of matters too, signing a contract with the Cincinnati Reds for a little less than $1 million. He’ll be up to the big leagues probably around the trade deadline, which probably shouldn’t affect the Reds’ plans too much, but who knows.
Springer is basically a right-handed specialist. Against lefties he has a FIP of 5 since 2003 while righties have only walked, homered, and struck out their way to a 3.22 FIP against him. While it’s a nice signing in the sense that the Reds will get a reliever who has posted FIP of 2.83, 3.51, and 4.06 over the last three seasons who is ever so familiar with the National League Central, it’s just … well, he doesn’t really fit their ballpark.
A byproduct of extreme flyballers is that some balls will clear the fences. Springer has held his home run per flyball percentage mostly in check over the last three seasons, but that’s while spending time with the St. Louis Cardinals, Oakland Athletics, and Tampa Bay Rays. StatCorner has park factors by the batter’s hand and suggests that the parks Springer has succeeded in recently and the one he’s about to enter are at opposite ends of the spectrum. Here’s how those three home parks factor for right-handed batters’ home run rates:
TB: 96
STL: 73
OAK: 73
You know what Great American Ballpark’s figure is? 133. Springer had a decent career in Houston — albeit not like his past few seasons — and the park factor for RHB HR there is only 117. He’s about to enter an environment that just won’t suit his talents for at least half the games. He may succeed still, but if he doesn’t, I won’t be surprised. Of all the ballparks to pitch in, he just had to choose this one. Life just isn’t fair.
For the player poll that will appear in the July 19th edition of Sports Illustrated and is now online here, 187 players responded to the question of who is the most overrated player in the Major Leagues. To me, it’s always interesting to see how players evaluate other players, and how they perceive how those of us outside the game evaluate them. This question sort of kills these two birds with one stone, although the question is also very vague. Are these players overrated by other players? By GMs? By fans? By writers? Let’s dive in and take a look at what the players answered.
J.D. Drew has been a point of contention between the sabermetric analysts and much of the mainstream media for a good bit now. Typically, we don’t side with the players here. Dave Cameron says that Drew has been worth the money, and I defended the contract here. The fact is, Drew is a fantastic player when he’s on the field, and despite the time that he misses, he remains one of the best right fielders in the league. Drew put up 4.0 WAR in 2008 and 4.8 in 2009 and is on pace to go over 4.0 once again in 2010 (and he might even reach 600 PAs this time!).
Why would the players think he’s overrated? Honestly, that’s a good question. I have a feeling that it is because he misses time, and the machismo aspect of sports would lead the players to believe that anyone that is injured as often as Drew can’t possibly be worth that much. However, I have a hard time placing Drew as “overrated” because he seems to be almost universally panned by the mainstream media, who complain about his contract, work ethic, and injuries multiple times every year.
Another interesting choice, this one comes on the heels of Swisher’s first All-Star selection. I would think that Swisher is underrated, if anything, as he was traded for Wilson Betemit, the player equivalent of a bag of balls. Swisher has been consistently solid and has really turned it up this season, with a career high .391 wOBA and 2.7 WAR through only 360 plate appearances this year. That’s certainly All-Star caliber production.
Why would the players find him overrated? Swisher doesn’t exactly have the most fantastic body, and he doesn’t (usually) hit for a great average. There also seems, as you might notice as we continue, to be a bit of an anti-Yankees feel to this list. There also could be some hard feelings from the .219 batting average he put up with the White Sox in 2008. Swisher certainly isn’t your typical All-Star or even your good player, but his production for the last few years is hard to ignore.
This one is spot on. Matthews basically parlayed one decent year and one fantastic catch into a $50 million contract and whined when he couldn’t get playing time with the Angels. Why would he be considered overrated, after the Mets finally dumped him last month? Possibly because he managed to make the opening day lineup for the Mets in center field, despite the fact that he’s just plain not good: GMJ has posted a total of -1.1 WAR since 2007.
The players find him overrated for the same reasons we do: he’s bad, overpaid, and somehow manages to keep finding roster spots. The Reds signed him to a minor league deal recently, so there’s still a chance that Matthews’ MLB career isn’t over.
Is Alex Rodriguez actually overrated? Over his career, no chance. If we look at the last few seasons, possibly. At age 35, Rodriguez has posted a staggering 106.0 WAR in his career. That has him in the top 25 position players of all time and he should have at least a few good seasons left in him. Even recently, Rodriguez has been excellent, even though a 4.7 WAR season in 2009 doesn’t live up to his contract. Still, he posted 6.0 WAR in 2008 and a staggering 9.2 WAR in 2007. He has the ability to remain a premiere player, even though his 2.2 WAR so far this season doesn’t live up to that.
The reason for Rodriguez’s spot on this vote seems simple to me: the contract and the steroid use. Rodriguez easily makes the most of any player in the game right now and is quite clearly not the best player in the game: that would be Albert Pujols, and there are certainly arguments to be made on a number of other players too, including Chase Utley and Hanley Ramirez. Throw in the steroids and I’m actually surprised that Rodriguez wasn’t number one. There’s three easy ways to be a hated baseball player: get a huge contract, use steroids, and play for the Yankees, and Rodriguez has all of those down.
Joba “wins” — and in a landslide. Given the hype surrounding his ascent to the Major Leagues, the fact that Chamberlain isn’t the dominant pitcher that we expected is certainly disappointing. His ERAs the last two years of 4.75 and 5.79 certainly fuel that fire, but Chamberlain has actually pitched pretty well this year according to his peripherals. His FIP is below 3.00 and his tERA and xFIP are both below 3.40. Given the hype, it’s disappointing that Joba is settling in as a pretty good middle reliever, but it would be hard for me to say “most overated in baseball.”
But the players almost certainly see the hype and the media frenzy surrounding Chamberlain’s arrival, combined with the fact that some of them have hit him around this year, and the decision for them is simple. Not only that, but much has been made of Joba’s emotions on the mound, which could certainly irk some players on opposing teams. Given that perfect storm, I’m not terribly surprised to see Chamberlain on this list, although I am surprised that he is first by such a wide margin.
It would have been unfair to expect Greinke to repeat his remarkable 2009 season, and thus far, he hasn’t been able to do it. However, even after taking a step back, he’s still among the game’s best pitchers, and he is signed to a bargain contract that will pay him just $27 million in 2011 and 2012. Of all the guys in the Top 50, he’s probably the most likely to be moved before his current contract expires, so it will be interesting to see if we actually find out what Greinke’s trade value is in the next year or so.
Teams love players who can do everything, and that’s McCutchen in a nutshell. He’s above average in every area, and as a 23-year-old with a broad array of skills, he’s got room for even more development. He’s already one of the game’s best center fielders and would get significantly more notice if he played somewhere besides Pittsburgh. Given that the Pirates have him under team control for five more years, they don’t have to worry about losing their franchise player any time soon.
Anyone who wasn’t sure how good Wainwright’s curve was learned during Tuesday’s All-Star Game. His curve ball is probably the best in the game, and his fastball, slider, and change-up aren’t bad either. He throws strikes, gets groundballs, and misses bats. There are really no flaws in his game. The Cardinals control him through 2013 at a grand total of $27 million, and the last two years of the deal are team options, limiting the liability if something goes wrong and he ends up hurt. Overall, the combination of excellence, low cost, and minimal risk adds up to a highly valued asset.
A six-win player signed through 2013 for a grand total of $37 million? Yes, please. Youkilis has surpassed what anyone thought he would become, and has turned himself into one of the best all around players in the game. He hits for contact and power, draws a bunch of walks, and plays quality defense at multiple positions. Even at age 31, he’s showing no signs of slowing down, and while he has a skillset that generally doesn’t age all that gracefully, he should remain highly productive through the rest of his contract.
No, he’s not pitching as well as his ERA would suggest. Yes, he’s still a phenomenal pitcher. His combination of stuff and performance is up there with anyone, and when you see him light up radar guns, it isn’t hard to see why hitters are having such a tough time generating runs against him. Beyond just what he brings to the mound, though, his contract is super team friendly – he’s got four years left on his deal (the last two being club options) for a grand total of $21 million. The last option is voidable if he’s traded, however, so an acquiring team would only get three years from him, which keeps him out of the top 15, but still makes him a tremendously valuable asset.
Brian McCann was the MVP of the All-Star Game on Tuesday, the first catcher to win the honor since Sandy Alomar Jr. in 1997. (Sandy’s brother Roberto won the award the following year, the only pair of siblings to share the honor.) He’s only the fifth catcher ever to win the award since 1962, the first year it was given out, along with Alomar, Mike Piazza, Terry Steinbach, and two-time winner Gary Carter.
Perhaps because they play the least single position on the diamond which produces the least offense, catchers seem underrepresented on the lists for baseball’s ultimate honors. And the National League has especially suffered.
In the last 50 years, five catchers have won the MVP. In the American League, Joe Mauer (2009), Ivan Rodriguez (1999), and Thurmon Munson (1976) have all won Most Valuable Player Awards since the award last went to a National League backstop, Johnny Bench in 1970 and 1972. The previous catcher MVP was also in the American League, the Yankees’ Elston Howard in 1963.
Six catchers have been named World Series MVP in the last fifty years. The last catcher to be named World Series MVP was an American Leaguer, Pat Borders in 1992. Prior to that, catchers went back-to-back in 1982 and 1983, the Cardinals’ Darrell Porter and the Orioles’ Rick Dempsey. Steve Yeager shared the award with two of his Dodger teammates in 1981 — the only such three-way tie in history — and Johnny Bench won the award by himself in 1976, as did the Athletics’ Gene Tenace in 1972.
The picture is slightly reversed in the League Championship Series, in which four catchers have won the MVP, all from the National League: Ivan Rodriguez in 2003, Benito Santiago in 2002, Eddie Perez in 1999, and Javy Lopez in 1996.
With the exception of the LCS, it seems that the number of catchers given awards has significantly decreased. We often complain that MVP voters focus exclusively on measures like home runs and RBIs, but it’s quite possible that is more true now than ever before. After all, as many catcher MVPs were given out in the 1950s — three apiece to Yogi Berra and Roy Campanella — as have been given out in the fifty years following. By contrast, fourteen of the last eighteen MVPs in both leagues have gone to corner infielders and corner outfielders, the players whom you’d expect to hit a lot.
Obviously, the list of MVP winners is a remarkably — dare I say it — small sample size from which to draw any strong conclusions about the changing nature of baseball analysis. But it’s striking all the same. Brian McCann has a long career ahead of him, and this likely won’t be the last award he receives. However, it looks like he may have to hit like a first baseman if he wants to be named Most Valuable Player once more.
The Red Sox put themselves in a hole early. They started the season 6-10, and even after they recovered by going 18-11 in their next 29 games they still found themselves down 8.5 games in the AL East on May 23. Since then they have rattled off a few winning streaks, but injuries have kept key players off the field. They headed into the All-Star Break in something of a funk, losing five of their last seven games. The Yankees sit five games ahead of them while the Rays are three up.
Buy or Sell?
One of the AL East powerhouses won’t make the playoffs, and all season it has looked like the Sox would be the odd team out. It started with the slump and continued with the injuries, and while they were as close as a half game out in early July, it looks like everything is catching up to them. The Red Sox might be buyers in name, but they shouldn’t get overeager. Players returning from injuries might be the only additions they need.
At catcher the Sox look particularly weak right now, with a combination of Kevin Cash and Gustavo Molina — not that kind of Molina — sharing the duties while Victor Martinez and Jason Varitek recover from injuries. That basically puts a pitcher in the No. 9 spot, which puts any American League team at a disadvantage. Reports suggest that the Sox could seek help here, with the names Chris Snyder and Chris Iannetta mentioned. To acquire one of these players, however, would be to ostracize Varitek. Martinez will certainly return to his catching duties upon return, since he has nowhere else to play. Would the Red Sox, with so many injuries, actually carry three catchers? It doesn’t strike me as a particularly smart move for a reputedly savvy front office.
If the Sox are going to add a piece it will likely be in the outfield or the bullpen. For most of the season the team has been without Jacoby Ellsbury, who continues to suffer rib and other torso injuries. There’s no timetable for his return, and judging from reports the Sox probably shouldn’t count on him too heavily. They have received excellent production from his fill-in, Daniel Nava, a late bloomer who raked at every level of the minors. He currently has a .371 wOBA through 89 PA, and while he could certainly remain in the .350 – .370 wOBA range, I don’t think the Sox are counting on it.
Adding to the trouble is Mike Cameron, who has suffered various injuries, including a sports hernia and kidney stones. He technically lost only 36 days to the DL, but has taken regular days off since his return, starting three days in a row just twice since May 25. Jeremy Hermida is also on the DL with fractured ribs, but he’s been ineffective even when healthy. The only fully healthy member of the opening day outfield is J.D. Drew. The Sox could look to add a piece here in order to fortify the unit, hedging against declining production from Nava and providing a more reliable option than Darnell McDonald to spell Cameron. David DeJesus is the oft-mentioned player here.
The rest of the offense seems just fine. Dustin Pedroia put on a laser show before fouling a ball off his foot, and it sounds like he’ll be back soon enough. David Ortiz has recovered after the press pronounced him dead in April. Kevin Youkilis, All-Star appearance or not, has been the rock of the team. Adrian Beltre has exceeded expectations in his first, and likely only, season with the Sox. Any other additions should come on the pitching staff.
Here, too, we see a team that requires patience. Both Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz are recovering from injuries and will help strengthen the rotation upon their returns. Jon Lester is pitching characteristically well, but beyond those guys there’s not much the Sox can really do. John Lackey and Daisuke Matsuzaka haven’t performed to expectations at all, and it’s not like they’re candidates for a move to the bullpen. Not that Matsuzaka would be a good option there. It often takes him more than 100 pitches to get through five, and the last thing the Sox need is a reliever who puts too many men on base. But they could certainly use help in the pen.
The problem with adding to the pen is that so many contenders also need help that relievers often become expensive. The Sox have an advantage in that they can absorb salary, so someone like Kerry Wood might be available to them and not many others. They’ll find more competition when going for slightly cheaper guys, like the trio of impending free agent relievers from the Blue Jays (Kevin Gregg, Jason Frasor, Scott Downs). Any way they do it, the Sox sure could use some help with their bullpen.
On the Farm
With both of their bigger issues, outfield and bullpen, the Sox might have an in-house solution. For the outfield they could call on 22-year-old Ryan Kalish. Marc Hulet ranked Kalish ninth among Sox prospects, saying that he, “will certainly jump on the Kalish train in 2010 if he can maintain a solid batting average while also at least equaling his ’09 power numbers.” Starting the season in AA, Kalish hit .293/.404/.527 and since his move to AAA he’s hitting .333/.407/.457. The power numbers might not be as impressive in AAA, but this comes in just 91 PA. He could help in the outfield if the Sox fail to land an established player.
On the mound the Sox have been preparing Michael Bowden for a call-up to the bullpen. Hulet ranked him 10th among Sox prospects, despite a poor showing in the majors last season. His last three appearances, four innings, have come in relief, and chances are the Sox will call him up shortly. But beyond Bowden the Sox will likely have to look elsewhere for pitching help.
The rest of the farm is strong, if not major league ready, and the Sox could use some of those chips to make a move. They won’t trade a blue-chipper like Casey Kelly, but they could use one of their lower level players to acquire a player like DeJesus or Wood.
Budget
The Sox 2010 payroll, $168 million, is the highest in club history, but that doesn’t mean they’ll skimp on the market if they can find a deal. They have some money coming off the books next year, but also owe many players raises. In total they have $100 million guaranteed to the 2011 payroll, though I’m not sure how that affects what they’ll do this year. Again, while payroll is high I doubt it would prevent them from making a move that could help the team.
I think one of the most interesting new ways teams can possibly gain a competitive edge going forward is by looking at the psychology of players, managers, and even their own scouts and front office executives. Of course, baseball pscyhologists have been around for quite some time, but there are always subtle aspects of the trade that can be applied to different areas.
A manifestation of the way managers, coaches, scouts, and execs think about players is the way in which athletes are assigned their roles and positions. As human beings looking to optimize order in every situation we can, we love to compare players. “What big leaguer does Prospect A remind you of?” “What player do you think your game is most similar to?” These are questions asked all the time. When we hear that x player is like y (i.e. I love saying Josh Thole is like a left-handed Paul LoDuca), it makes things easier for us to analyze. This was discussed over at The Book Blog last year, where I commented:
…I think a lot has to do with preconceived notations of what people think starters and relievers “look like.” Joba Chamberlain “looks like” a reliever. Jamie Moyer “looks like” a starter. I’m sure, on both a conscious and subconscious level, things like height, physical appearance, “makeup,” and even race are taken into account when managers are assigning roles to amateur pitchers.
Sometimes, organizations may choose to put a player at a certain position simply because they “feel” that said player is a “good fit” there, not based on analytics or statistics, but on subjective and inherently prejudiced (not in the conotational sense) beliefs. When I started following Mets prospect Jenrry Mejia, a baby-faced righty with a fantastic arm, I instantly got nervous. Despite his potential to be an extremely valuable starting pitcher, Mejia had the “look” of a reliever, in the Francisco Rodriguez or Mariano Rivera mold. In an interview with my good friend Jeremy Greenhouse at The Baseball Analysts this past winter, I said the following:
I’m really worried the Mets are going to put [Jenrry Mejia] in the bullpen to start the season. I hope that doesn’t happen. I hope they put him back in Binghamton next year. His peripherals in Binghamton were really solid last year. I hope he continues to prosper there and move up the ranks. I don’t want to see him get thrown in. He has that look of a set-up guy or closer that people can think “Oh, this is one of those late-inning guys, a K-Rod because of that electric arm.” And they can forget that he can actually be a very good starter if they leave him in the minors for long enough.
And then it happened. Right at the start of Mets Spring Training, Jerry Manuel and others saw Jenrry Mejia, and the thought of him pitching anywhere else but the end of ballgames vanished:
“I went to Omar and told him, ‘You’ve got to make this guy a closer,'” [Darryl] Strawberry was saying in animated fashion Tuesday…”He’s the only guy I’ve ever seen that reminds me of Mariano Rivera…I played with Mo, I saw it up close. I know what his cutter looked like and I’m telling you, I haven’t seen a pitch move like his, with that kind of velocity, until I saw this kid Mejia.”
Mejia is currently in the minors after a decent stint throwing mostly mopup innings in the big leagues. He hurt his arm in his second start back after being sent down to try starting again, most likely due to rapidly going from starter to reliever to starter in less than a year.
But the examples don’t stop there. Andre Ethier was the starting centerfielder for the All-Star Game this year despite never playing a game there in the major or minor leagues. In fact, the craziest part was that Brewers outfielder Corey Hart had played over 350 innings in centerfield during his major league career and as recently as 2007! Manager Charlie Manuel’s explanation for the move was hysterically sad:
“The reason he’s playing center field is because when we did the fan voting and the player voting, we, uh, Hart had the … he was ahead of the outfielders,” Manuel said. “He has to start. He was supposed to start the game, and Ethier’s the one I chose to play center field because I remember he played there a lot.
“We do not have what they call a true center fielder right now. We have some on our roster… at the same time… that was the reason why he started in center field.”
Best attempt at translation: When Braves rookie Jason Heyward pulled out of the game with a thumb injury, Hart moved into the starting lineup by virtue of finishing third among NL outfielders in player voting. Braun is a left fielder. Ethier and Hart are right fielders. Manuel recalled that Ethier used to play center field “a lot,” so decided to pencil him in there.
Of course, Manuel’s recollection was incorrect.
In fact, it was Hart who used to play center field, doing so as recently as 2007, when he played 34 games — starting 28 times — at the position.
Ethier, who was voted into the game by the fans and topped player balloting, looked surprised when he was asked about the last time he played in center.
“Center field?” he asked. “Am I playing center field? I heard rumors. I don’t even know the lineup.”
“Last time I played center field would have to have been … ugff … in college, 2003,” he said.
Charlie Manuel looked at Andre Ethier and looked at Corey Hart and decided that Ethier clearly “looked like” a center fielder more so than Hart. In fact, he knew one of them had played center field before, and his gut instinct was so strong that he incorrectly stated it was Ethier!
The people who make baseball decisions are human, and are subject to making the same mistakes as everyone else. However, it’s about time we put a little more thought into our decisions; subjective assignments based on misinformation are not only costly, they’re lazy.
The young outfielder for the Reds possesses all the abilities to be a true superstar, and a breakout year is coming, likely sooner than later. One of the best power and speed players in the game, Bruce will be a middle of the order hitter with defensive value, making him a rare specimen. He still has some growing to do before he gets there, but he’s already a quality player and has barely scratched the surface of what he could be. The Reds having him under team control through 2014 only enhances his value.
If this was strictly about past performance, he’d rank much higher. The continued loss of velocity, however, raises questions about what kind of pitcher he’ll be going forward, and teams have long been skeptical of his durability due to his size, workloads, and unorthodox delivery. Once you add his escalating paychecks into the calculation, and this is where we end up – with a pitcher who has been as good as anyone, but has enough question marks about his future abilities to keep him out of the top tier in terms of trade value.
Perhaps because of the expectations that came with the beginning of his career, Hernandez can often feel like a disappointment because he’s not the best pitcher in the game. He is, however, in the discussion of guys not named Halladay, and his combination of stuff and durability have teams convinced that he could be even better if he ever fully matures. The five year contract he signed last winter is far enough below his market value that most teams could add him to their budget without too many problems.
Speaking of best in the game, trying to figure out where Pujols should land was quite the challenge. On one hand, he’s baseball’s premier slugger and drastically underpaid, but his contract only lasts through next season, so his value is short term only. He provides so much production, however, that teams would still be beating down the Cardinals door if he was ever made available, even though he’ll be looking for a huge paycheck a year from now. He’s pretty much the only guy good enough to overcome the lack of long term value.
#21 – Carlos Santana, C, Cleveland
Of all the good young catchers on this list, Santana is the best. A switch-hitter with power and a tremendous approach at the plate, he projects as a better version of Victor Martinez at the plate, only with much better defensive skills than his predecessor. He’s wasted no time in establishing himself as one of the game’s best young players, and because he wasn’t called up until June, the Indians will control his rights for six more years. The Dodgers will regret trading him for a long, long time.
During every Yankees game for the past month or so the YES Network hyped the first ever Major League Baseball game broadcasted in HD. It happened last Saturday in Seattle, when the Yankees played the Mariners. The true 3D feed came two innings late thanks to a glitch in the production truck, but after that the experiment, by most accounts, was a success. The 3D era for baseball had officially begun.
On Tuesday night Panasonic, a forerunner in the 3D TV game, held an event at the Helen Mills Theater & Event Space in New York City. My colleagues from River Ave. Blues and I were invited, and we couldn’t pass up the opportunity to get our first 3D baseball experience. After a round of hot dogs and beers, we strapped on our glasses and enjoyed a strikeout-fueled All-Star performance. Watching it in 3D certainly added a different feel to the game.
The goggles
This past winter several 3D movies hit theaters. The movies required special glasses, but unlike the red and blue glasses of 80’s 3D technology, these were more like sun glasses. They were cheap enough that no one really minded if you left the theater with them. None of this is true for the goggles required for 3D TV viewing. The new glasses are quite a deal heavier than the movie 3D glasses because they contain electronics that help render the 3D image. This means that they are more cumbersome. They’re also more expensive, running $150 to $200.
And here they are while on my face.
Ze googles! They do nothing!
The goggles were not comfortable at all, though that shouldn’t come as a shocker. They kept sliding down my nose, and neither one of the two size settings helped. Then again, I do not wear glasses. Both of my colleagues, Mike and Ben, do, and they reported no discomfort. It sounds, then, like they will take some time getting used to at best. I’m still not sure that I’d want to watch games every night while wearing these things.
One aspect I found strange was that the goggles could focus on only one display at a time. We had three TVs in the room, and at first I thought that the other two were too far away and thus the goggles could not render the image. After a few innings I ended up staring at one of the other TVs for a few seconds, and eventually a better view did render. When I turned my attention back to the TV in front of me it took anther few seconds to adjust back. Again, this probably doesn’t have any implications for home viewing.
A side-effect of wearing the goggles is the loss of peripheral vision. The theater had people coming around to collect empty plates and bottles, and I jumped each time someone leaned into view. That, too, will take some time getting used to, though I don’t imagine it being as big an issue in a household setting.
The image
In 3D movies it seems like the images pop off the screen and into the theater. On 3D TV it’s more like they’re playing inside the box — like a diorama. I’m not saying the experience is worse by any degree; I actually did enjoy the presentation. The 3D aspect added a level of depth that an HDTV just can’t capture. Cameras have advanced in technology, and we can in some cases judge depth while watching a 2D image, but in 3D the distinctions become clearer.
One aspect that struck all of us as strange was how only certain aspects popped in 3D. It almost looks like the background — in this case the outfield wall and scenery beyond — was a stage set. The field, too, carried a similar effect. The players did pop off the field, but it seemed like the field and the background were flat surfaces. This is at least partly because we’ve grown so used to 2D broadcasts. watching in 3D still felt like a stage play at times when the background was a prominent part of the picture.
For most of the game I sat at the end of a couch, putting me at a pretty extreme angle facing the TV. For 2D broadcasts this is usually fine. The image is flat, so it looks the same from all angles. At first I thought the same was true for 3D, and I enjoyed the early goings. But then around the third inning I turned my head to a TV that was to the right of me, but gave me a straight-on view. The difference was noticeable. Everything seemed like it was deeper and more defined. If you’re going to enjoy a game in 3D, I suggest you make sure to get a seat front and center.
The presentation
From the first pitch we could tell that not only would the 3D picture be something different, but the entire presentation would, too. When David Price wound up and dealt to Hanley Ramirez we were watching from behind the left-handed batter’s box. Like most other aspects of the 3D experience this seemed odd at first. By the second batter, however, I was loving it. You just see so much more from a behind the plate angle.
The most noticeable difference when viewing from behind home plate, and in 3D, is the level of detail you can see in the pitcher’s delivery. Every little nuance of Ubaldo Jimenez’s elaborate windup was clearly visible, and that added to the viewing experience. Normally only fans sitting up close can see him go through the motions, while the rest of us view from afar, or from our 2D televisions. The 3D view allows all fans to experience the finer details of the game.
It does take a little extra focus to watch the game in 3D, at least initially. It took me a few batters to pick up the ball out of the pitcher’s hand, and then a few innings to pick up the ball off the bat. Again, this has to do with the differences in what we’ve become accustomed to and what 3D brings to the table. I imagine that it would take a few games to settle into the 3D viewing.
Part of the difficulty in picking up the ball came from the camera work. It seemed like the cameras and production crew were slow to pick up the ball, leaving us for a few seconds with little idea of where it went and who was fielding it, which was to be expected. Shooting a game in 3D is going to be different than shooting it normally, and it will take time for cameramen and production crews to figure it out. John Fillipelli, president of programming and production for the YES Network, made this point when talking about his station’s experiment.
Right now we are shooting a 3D game like we do a regular baseball game with the same basic camera positions. We have to find ways as we go along to accentuate the benefits of 3D in shooting baseball. These telecasts will allow us to start finding the best camera angles, determine how many cameras we need, things like that. To learn the nuances of shooting a game in 3D.”
Once the crews figure out what’s required for a 3D broadcast I imagine that they’ll pick up the flow of the game better. Considering I enjoyed the experience as presented on Tuesday night, any improvement in the presentation could make a big difference.
Additional observations
There were a few other aspects of the 3D experience that I noticed while watching the NL win its first All-Star game since I was in eighth grade.
The strike zone was difficult to judge because of the off-center angle — even more so than the off-angle center field cameras. This wasn’t a huge problem, but I’m sure it’s something they’ll look into as the technology develops.
At the outset the production crew used the behind-the-plate view for right-handed batters and the normal center field view for left-handed batters. I thought that was because of the camera sitting behind the left-handed batter’s box. But later in the game they switched to the rear camera exclusively. I was glad; I didn’t go to watch the All-Star game in 3D to see the same broadcast as I could on my own HD.
Repeated for emphasis: if 3D technology in this form is going to spread to homes around America, they’re going to have to do something about the glasses. Watching a special event, even a playoff series, with the glasses would be fine, but I can’t imagine watching 150 some-odd games a year while wearing them.
The bottom line
3D TV will not change the world. It will not make it feel like you’re at the game. But it does provide an interesting experience that allows you to view the game with nuance not available in 2D. I’m not sure how long it will take the technology to spread, but I hope that by the time it does they’ve worked out some of the kinks. They’re mostly minor, so I imagine it’s feasible if 3D takes as much time as HD did to progress into American homes.
After dealing with some current events over the last couple of days, we’re back with another entry in the Four Factors series, this time a request: Colorado Rockies uber-outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. Gonzalez is in his third season in the majors, and this is the first in which he will likely approach 600 plate appearances. Even in limited duty, though, Gonzalez has posted 5.2 WAR in just under 1000 plate appearances. His glove has always been solid, but his bat has really taken off in the last two seasons. In just under 700 plate appearances between 2009 and 2010, Gonzalez has slugged 30 home runs and posted a .377 wOBA. Let’s examine his progression through the four factors of hitting.
As a reminder, the four factors are BB%, K%, POW, and BABIP. As Julien Headley pointed out, I was using an incorrect form of POW. I was using XB/H instead of XB/(AB-K). The latter actually measures XB on balls in play, including HRs. League average is currently .185.
First, Gonzalez’s 2008, with Oakland:
Two thousand and eight was a poor season by basically any measure. Gonzalez excelled at nothing, and only a solid BABIP kept it from being a complete failure. He showed little discipline and little contact, and when he did make contact, nothing much came of it. The result was a 69 wRC+, showing little potential, and this season likely resulted in his inclusion into the Matt Holliday trade, sending him to Colorado for the 2009 season.
Everything came together for Gonzalez in 2009. The walk rate nearly came up to average; his power spiked; his strikeouts fell a bit, and, to top it all off, Gonzalez had good results on balls in play. The particularly striking factor here is Gonzalez’s power, rising from 86% of league average to 173% of league average. It’s important to remember that Gonzalez moved from McAfee Coliseum to Coors Field- a pitcher’s park to a hitter’s park. According to Statcorner’s parkfactors, however, Oakland isn’t as tough on left handed batters as it is on righties, and Coors doesn’t help lefties as much as it helps righties, making the boost in power much more significant, although the small sample means, at this point in Gonzalez’s career, it must be regressed heavily.
Two thousand and ten showed more of the same on the power front, certainly an encouraging sign for Rockies fans. But Gonzalez’s BB% has dipped back to where it was in Oakland, which is obviously disappointing after the 2009 season, as his minor league track record – no extended stints with double digit walk rates – doesn’t particularly suggest an ability to walk at a high rate, and this start to 2010 is dashing some of the hopes that Gonzalez’s on-base skills would approach average. Cutting down on the strikeouts each of the last two seasons has helped mitigate that damage, although not as much as an unsustainable .360 BABIP disguises the issues.
Over all, Gonzalez’s more controllable skills have gone down this year. Obviously, half a season can only tell us so much, but without a walk rate rebound in the second half we would have to expect a drop in Gonzalez’s offensive production, and even 980 plate appearances into his career, there is still moderate regression necessary on his power. At this point, however, it looks like he indeed has more than enough power to be an above average hitter, and as a good defensive outfielder, that makes him an extremely valuable asset going forward, and good enough to earn him a spot on Dave’s honorable mentions for highest trade value in the league.
(Note on POW: I’m not sure if I like XB/H or XB/(SO-AB) better for this exercise, but the difference isn’t huge in this case. I’m not sure if I like the idea of equating an out to a single, as XB/(SO-AB) does, and I may want to take outs out of the equation. For now, though, I trust Julien, the creator of the statistic.)
More Twitter giveback. This time from Ramedy. The topic: Ben Zobrist’s on-baseness.
The 2009 season was unusual for Ben Zobrist. He started the season in a super-sub and pinch-hitting capacity where he become synonymous with extra base hits late in games – earning the nickname “Late Inning Lightning” from Tommy Rancel. As the season shifted and Akinori Iwamura was injured, he took over at second base and made the All-Star game in part because of his power and in part because of his ridiculous defense. The entire Rays’ infield (minus catcher) actually made the All-Star game despite finishing the year in third place; Zobrist basically led the Light Brigade.
In 2010 that power is all but gone. Ben Zobrist walked in 13.7% of his first half plate appearances. He held a .113 ISO. Of the 15 batters with higher walk rates only two had ISO below .150 (little blue pill Chipper Jones and Daric Barton) and none below .120. That’s not to say Zobrist is some endangered species of bird; Ian Kinsler has nearly identical figures and Chone Figgins isn’t far off with far less power. It is to say it would be no surprise if the March of Dimes began sponsoring Zobrist’s Baseball-Reference page.
That ability to get on base has kept Zobrist amongst the Rays’ most valuable hitters. His .362 wOBA is third behind only AL MVP candidate Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria — just ahead of a similar batter in John Jaso. He’s still playing tremendous defense at second and right field. He even filled in at center for a span, although he looked rather out of place and only his athleticism allowed him to overcome some rather putrid routes.
Despite the solid walk rate, Zobrist has actually expanded his zone this year. He’s offering at pitches out of the zone more often than before and while is contact rate has actually improved, it’s up to anyone’s guess whether the increased willingness to fish is residual from his power show or simply Zobrist being more aggressive because he felt the pitch was hittable.
Regardless, coming off a season where he looks destined to receive his own collection of Louisville Slugger advertisements, Zobrist has proven he’s a hopeless romantic who enjoys 90 foot walks on paved dirt and that’s enough to make Rays’ fans swoon.
