Zobrist and OBP
More Twitter giveback. This time from Ramedy. The topic: Ben Zobrist’s on-baseness.
The 2009 season was unusual for Ben Zobrist. He started the season in a super-sub and pinch-hitting capacity where he become synonymous with extra base hits late in games – earning the nickname “Late Inning Lightning” from Tommy Rancel. As the season shifted and Akinori Iwamura was injured, he took over at second base and made the All-Star game in part because of his power and in part because of his ridiculous defense. The entire Rays’ infield (minus catcher) actually made the All-Star game despite finishing the year in third place; Zobrist basically led the Light Brigade.
In 2010 that power is all but gone. Ben Zobrist walked in 13.7% of his first half plate appearances. He held a .113 ISO. Of the 15 batters with higher walk rates only two had ISO below .150 (little blue pill Chipper Jones and Daric Barton) and none below .120. That’s not to say Zobrist is some endangered species of bird; Ian Kinsler has nearly identical figures and Chone Figgins isn’t far off with far less power. It is to say it would be no surprise if the March of Dimes began sponsoring Zobrist’s Baseball-Reference page.
That ability to get on base has kept Zobrist amongst the Rays’ most valuable hitters. His .362 wOBA is third behind only AL MVP candidate Carl Crawford and Evan Longoria — just ahead of a similar batter in John Jaso. He’s still playing tremendous defense at second and right field. He even filled in at center for a span, although he looked rather out of place and only his athleticism allowed him to overcome some rather putrid routes.
Despite the solid walk rate, Zobrist has actually expanded his zone this year. He’s offering at pitches out of the zone more often than before and while is contact rate has actually improved, it’s up to anyone’s guess whether the increased willingness to fish is residual from his power show or simply Zobrist being more aggressive because he felt the pitch was hittable.
Regardless, coming off a season where he looks destined to receive his own collection of Louisville Slugger advertisements, Zobrist has proven he’s a hopeless romantic who enjoys 90 foot walks on paved dirt and that’s enough to make Rays’ fans swoon.
I’m assuming his lack of power is David Wright syndrome?
All the rest of his numbers other than home runs are on par(or better) to the last two season.
Is it just me, or does it seem like many hitters are swinging out of the strike zone. From the games I’ve watched, it seems like outside pitches not over the plate are being called for strikes more often. I’ve seen some hitters expand their zone because of it. Coud just be SSS though.
Zobrist is solid, but he’s no Jason Bartlett.
They’re both better than BJ Upton.
Don’t you dare speak ill of Upton in RJ’s presence. He takes it very, VERY personally. And I’m sure he’ll be sure to mention how soft-spoken Upton is. And how he walks every now and again. Keep on defending the indefensible! Hahaha.
“Zobrist has proven he’s a hopeless romantic who enjoys 90 foot walks on paved dirt and that’s enough to make Rays’ fans swoon.”
Loved that.
So Zobrist’s 2009 season was a fluke? SHOCKING.
Enlightening.
Clearly a guy who is on pace for another 6+ WAR season is a fluke.
Is it possible that part of the reason for his diminished power is the fact that he’s swinging at more pitches out of the zone, resulting in worse contact? For example, his IFFB% is 10.7% this year as opposed to 5.2% last year. As seen in 2006 and 2007 (despite much smaller sample sizes) his much higher O-Swing% resulted in higher IFFB% in both years.
2006: O-Swing%: 23.3 IFFB%: 12.8 ISO: .087 HR/FB%: 4.3%
2007: O-Swing%: 26.7 IFFB%: 10.7 ISO: .052 HR/FB%: 3.6%
2010: O-Swing%: 25.3 IFFB%: 10.7 ISO: .113 HR/FB%: 6.0%
as opposed to
2008: O-Swing%: 17.8 IFFB%: 5.8 ISO: .253 HR/FB%: 17.4%
2009: O-Swing%: 19.5 IFFB%: 5.2 ISO: .246 HR/FB%: 17.5%
It’s easy to see that Zobrist loses power when he swings at pitches out of the zone. This is not surprising, considering it is harder to make good contact on a ball outside of the zone. If Zobrist wants to return to his power-hitting form, he is going to have to cut down his O-Swing%
I have a tough time believing that Zobrist is anything but a 20 homer threat every year. We are talking about a guy who has hit a grand total of 43 homers in 2 years (770 at bats).
I say most of that power will come back, when he starts hitting some more flyballs.
And the point of this article is….?
At least offer a little more insight rather than just “his numbers have gone down oh and he made the all star game because of his great defense.” Yeah, like the dumb mindless sheep voters care about defense. Swing and a miss, RJ.