As has been written before, Royals outfielder David DeJesus is the sort of player who tends to fly under the radar because he does no one thing exceptionally well, but he does a number of things at an average or above-average level. He’s been about a 3 WAR player most of his career, and has accumulated almost that much value already in 2010. DeJesus probably isn’t an average center fielder any more, but runs saved in left or right field count, too. Despite having only average-ish power and being a terrible basestealer, DeJesus has a .344 career wOBA (.290/.361/.429). At 30, DeJesus is having a career year in 2010 offensively, with a .379 wOBA (.329/.397/.466). That probably is not his true talent level, but ZiPS’ rest-of-season projection is bullish nonetheless: .299/.369/.444 (.358 wOBA). One good test to see if a sports journalist has a clue is whether he or she says “David DeJesus is a fourth outfielder on a good team.” By my calculations, those people think that a fourth outfielder is someone whose true talent level over a full season is (conservatively, based on current projections) about 3 WAR. Draw your own conclusions.

Given DeJesus’ subtle combination of skills, it is ironic that the poorly-constructed-but-“official” Elias Rankings might somehow catch on to his value. According to the latest “reverse engineered” Elias Rankings at MLB Trade Rumors, if free agency started today, DeJesus would be Type A, meaning that if the Royals were to offer him arbitration and he turned it down then signed with another team, the Royals would get the signing team’s first round pick in the 2011 draft as well as supplemental pick.

This is particularly interesting because DeJesus is one of the Royals’ best trading chips due both to his value on the field and his team-friendly contract: $4.6 million for all of 2010 with a $6 milllion club option for 2011 (with a $500,000 buyout). Assuming DeJesus is only owed about two million dollars over the rest of the season and (using the conservative 3 WAR full season estimate) is projected to be worth about 1.5 wins at four million dollars per win, that’s four million dollars of surplus value this season. Assuming the team is smart and picks up the option, a half-win decline to 2.5 WAR for 2011 and inflation to about $4.5 million per win, that’s another five million dollars of surplus. Nine million dollars surplus could fetch something like good (if non-elite) prospect and perhaps some filler, and again, that’s based on a conservative estimate of DeJesus’ value.

But if DeJesus ends up a Type A free agent, that potentially adds an interesting wrinkle. In a Kansas City Star article from last month discussing DeJesus, several possible courses of action are mentioned, including trading DeJesus, picking up the 2011 option and keeping him, picking up the 2011 option and trading him in the offseason, and declining the option and then offering him arbitration in hopes he would turn it down and sign with another team, thus netting the Royals draft compensation. This last possibility is what interests me here.

It is an intriging suggestion, but ultimately, it is something the Royals should not do for two reasons. First of all, Victor Wang’s research on Type A compensation (summarized here) values average Type A compensation at about six million dollars. Assuming the Royals could make a fair trade (there is little point in analyzing possible screw-jobs) now at the conservatively-projected above surplus of nine million, the draft pick compensation wouldn’t hold up. Indeed, it is not clear that the draft pick compensation would even be more valuable than picking up DeJesus’ option and trading him in the offseason.

The second reason the arbitration-offer route is a bad idea is that DeJesus would be very likely to accept it. DeJesus is a good player that could help a lot of teams, but he isn’t a top-level talent like Matt Holliday was or Carl Crawford will be. He’s more like Orlando Hudson — a good player, but not good enough that teams are willing to overlook the draft pick they would have to give up to sign him. In each of the last two offseasons, Hudson ended up signing deals below his market value because teams were conscious of giving up the draft pick. DeJesus and his agent have no doubt noticed this, and realize they are likely to get a larger award in arbitration than free agency. If the Royals offer arbitration and DeJesus accepts, they not only don’t get the draft picks, but they would end up paying more in the arbitration award than they would have if they had picked up the option. Moreover, this would further reduce the surplus value (and thus potential return) DeJesus would have on the 2011 trade market.

DeJesus’ Type A status may bring send images of draft picks floating through the heads of Royals fans and officials. But given the likely outcome of that decision combined with the team’s current state, Kansas City should be looking to trade DeJesus now, as his value will never be higher.

Ryan Franklin’s outing last night was historically bad. Given that the worst possible WPA for a pitcher in a single inning is -1.00, Franklin — with his -.99 WPA last night in Colorado — came dangerously close to setting a record that could never be broken. However, there have been three pitchers since 2002 to eclipse the -1.00 WPA mark in relief appearances spanning two innings.

Click on the game graphs below for the entire FanGraphs game logs, box scores, etc.

June 5th, 2002: Hideki Irabu, Texas Rangers

Hideki “The Fat Toad” Irabu entered this game against the Angels up 4-2 in the bottom of the 9th inning, looking to close it out. Back-to-back solo homers by Brad Fullmer and Tim Salmon tied the game, but Irabu managed to get out of the ninth inning with the game tied. At this point, Irabu already had a -.410 WPA.

The Rangers took the lead in the top of the tenth, thanks to a Herbert Perry RBI triple. The Rangers had a terrible bullpen in 2002, with a 4.99 ERA and a 4.76 FIP. Only Francisco Cordero, C.J. Nitkowski, and Joaquin Benoit posted FIPs below 4.00 in the Texas bullpen that season. That only slightly explains why the team would send Irabu out for the 10th.

A Darin Erstad RBI fielder’s choice scored Adam Kennedy, tying the game at 5-5. With Erstad at first, Troy Glaus homered off of Irabu to end the game. Irabu racked up another -.801 WPA in the 10th, and finished with an unenviable total of -1.211 WPA on the game.

June 1st, 2007: Todd Jones, Detroit Tigers

Todd Jones entered in the 8th inning of a 9-5 contest against the Cleveland Indians after Wil Ledezma gave up two straight two out hits, putting runners at the corners and two outs. Back-to-back hits by Trot Nixon and Josh Barfield scored two runs, making it 9-7 before Jones could get out of the inning. The Tigers still had an 91.7% chance of winning despite the scoring; Jones’s WPA was a mere -.036.

Thanks to RBIs by Mike Rabelo and future all-star Omar Infante, the Tigers had an 11-7 lead and a 97.8% chance of victory entering the bottom of the 9th. Despite getting the first batter to ground out, Jones got into trouble quickly, as the next two batters reached and then scored on a Victor Martinez home run. A Jhonny Peralta double and then back-to-back singles by Barfield and David Delucci plated the final two runs of the game to give the Indians a 12-11 victory. Jones’s WPA in the 9th was -.978 for a total of -1.014.

April 7th, 2009: Brandon Lyon, Detroit Tigers

Yet another Detroit Tiger, this one came on Brandon Lyon’s first appearance with the team. Edwin Jackson ran out of gas in the 8th inning of a start against the Blue Jays, and between Jackson and Bobby Seay, the Tigers had allowed two baserunners in a 3-1 game. Lyon entered and immediately allowed a home run to Aaron Hill, putting the Jays up 4-3. That would be all the damage against Lyon in the 8th; his WPA was -.712 at the time.

The Tigers tied it in the top of the 9th against B.J. Ryan, and Lyon was given the chance to get the game into extras. After getting a groundout to start the inning, the next three batters reached via the walk, single, and intentional walk. Rod Barajas then hit the game-winning sacrifice fly, closing out easily the worst relief pitching debut this decade. Lyon’s WPA in the 9th was -.358, and his total for the game came in at -1.070.

The loss for the Cardinals last night was heartbreaking, both for their fans and for Ryan Franklin as well. At least Franklin can take solace in the fact that these guys had worse nights than he did in Colorado last night.

Sorry about the lateness – some internet problems on my end.

Pitcher wins and losses are poor statistics to use when evaluating pitchers, as many readers here surely know. Wins and losses give full credit to the pitcher for the performance, or lack thereof, of the whole team. As such, it can often miscredit pitchers, such as the 5 IP, 6 ER performance in a 17-8 victory or the CG, 1 ER loss when the offense is shut out.

In Colorado last night, however, the loss was completely deserved – or at least 99% deserved. Cardinals closer Ryan Franklin entered the ninth inning with one out and two on but a 9-4 lead. Despite the threat of runners on base, the leading team will win this game 99% of the time – even a home run leaves the trailing team with a mere 5.5% chance of winning the game.

That means that even after Chris Iannetta, the first batter Franklin faced, went deep, the Cardinals were still in good shape. Dexter Fowler doubled to keep things interesting, but a Brad Hawpe groundout seemed to signal that the end was near for the Rockies, who had already plated one run off of reliever Dennys Reyes before Franklin entered the game. A Carlos Gonzalez single scored Dexter Fowler and made the game 9-8, but with two outs and Gonzalez out of scoring position, the Cardinals, even after allowing four runs in the inning, were still sitting pretty, with an 88.9% chance of victory.

Given the lead of the story, what follows is obvious. Jason Giambi singled, and an error allowed Gonzalez to score, tying the game and giving the Rockies the upper hand, with a 57.2% win expectancy. Miguel Olivo singled to push that number up to 64.2%. The Cardinals could’ve gone on to win the game in extra innings, but Seth Smith squashed any such thoughts with a three run blast to end the game.

Ryan Franklin managed to get one out. He faced seven batters. The Cardinals went from an all-but-assured victory to a loss. Ryan Franklin earned the loss on his record tonight.

For better or worse, today’s edition of One Night Only was penned by a white person.

Ya heard!

Minnesota at Toronto | Wednesday, July 7 | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Twins: Kevin Slowey (NERD: 4)
88.2 IP, 6.39 K/9, 1.83 BB/9, .325 BABIP, 27.9% GB, 8.7% GB, 4.64 xFIP

Blue Jays: Marc Rzepczynski (Season Debut)
61.1 IP, 8.80 K/9, 4.40 BB/9, .280 BABIP, 51.2% GB, 14.9% HR/FB, 3.70 xFIP (2009)

Hot Button Topic
It’s amazing how, for all the handwringing and outrage in re the ethics of human cloning, how no one’s mentioned that the Minnesota Twins have been doing it for years. Brad Radke, Carlos Silva, every single pitcher in their current starting rotation: they’re genetically engineered not to walk batters. (Actually, come to think of it, maybe “Twins” isn’t just an allusion to regional geography, but a sly clue as to the organization’s illicit bioengineering operation.)

In any case, Kevin Slowey is very clearly a product of the Twinkers’ advanced scientific efforts. On the season, 54.1% of his pitches have been in the zone. That places him fifth overall among 109 qualified pitchers.

Quick, Get a Graphing Calculator!
And plot the following points (x, y): (2008, 36.1%), (2009, 32.0%), (2010, 27.9%). Now insert a best-fit line up in that piece.

Notice anything? Those y-coordinates are Slowey’s groundball rates. They’re going down, down, down — like, to the point where they might be negative someday.

Question: Should the Twins just play with three infielders when Slowey pitches? Like, have a first baseman, two other infielders, and then a softball-type outfield? I’m not joking a lot.

Actually, What I Wanted to Say Is
Tonight’s starter for the Blue Jays, Marc Rzepczynski, is making his season debut after missing the first three months of the season to a fractured middle finger that he sustained while attempting to field a comebacker during spring training.

You can tell from his numbers above that the Rze had a pretty excellent major league debut, inducing strikeouts and ground balls at an above-average rate, and thus leading to his sub-4.00 xFIP. The Rze profiles — at least, statistically — like a couple others guys: Jonathan Sanchez (but with more grounders), Gio Gonzalez (but with more grounders), Jorge de la Rosa, and Manny Parra.

The thing is, the Rze’s fastball velocity (88.0 mph in 2009) doesn’t even come within 2 mph of the slowest guy on that list (Sanchez, who averages about 91 mph). Moreover, his (below-average) swinging-strike rate of 7.3% suggests that his strikeout totals might have been flukish. Even so, he’s an interesting case study.

How to Pronounce Rzepczynski
Put your lips together and blow — but while you’re blowing, say the entire alphabet in Polish.

Ta-da!

If I Had My Druthers
• Either Jose Bautista or Edwin Encarnacion would hit a Kevin Slowey fastball all the way to America.
• U.S. armed forces would shoot down said home run ball — via both air and ground fire — at the very moment it crossed into American air space.
• The entire thing would be videotaped using the same technology as in The Matrix.

While perusing the season’s infield hits leaders, I ran across a fair share of usual suspects. Ichiro leads the pack (as he is wont to do) and names like Juan Pierre, Brett Gardner, Rajai Davis, and Carl Crawford aren’t unexpected whatsoever. The sight of Ryan Braun, however, had me taken aback when really it shouldn’t have.

Braun is of course a former third baseman moved to the outfield who hasn’t latched onto the concept of playing good defense. His skill set as a batter is pretty well-established. He hits for power, doesn’t strike out too much, doesn’t walk too much either, but maintains a high BABIP in part because of his speed – he’s generally good for two or three full hands of stolen bases. I knew Braun stole some bases. Heck, I looked right afterwards to see whether: 1) Braun stole bases, and 2) if he often collected so many infield hits. Yet, I still didn’t feel comfortable with Braun being Ichiro-lite.

So I asked someone with more exposure to Braun than most people about it…Jack Moore. He surmised that while Braun was a poor defender, it had less to do with his speed and more to do with his instincts and angles. It adds up. Still, accepting that Braun has nearly as many infield hits as Derek Jeter (and more than Johnny Damon, Shane Victorino, Michael Bourn, Pierre, Crawford, and numerous others) the last three seasons felt odd because of his defensive limitations.

Thus I was wondering: what other players get poor raps on their speed and baserunning abilities because of their defensive reputations? The one name that I found more absurd than Braun is Jason Bay, who has 56 infield hits the past three years which is a few more than either Jose Reyes or David Wright have. When I think of Jason Bay, I don’t think of him busting down the line and beating out balls hit deep into the hole or down the line.

Who are some others with speed that simply doesn’t show up in the defensive evaluations because they lack other skills?

Over two months into the season, the OPS leader in the International League is Kila Ka’aihue, and it’s not particularly close. Ka’aihue’s 1.073 OPS is 60 points better than Omaha Royals teammate Alex Gordon, and only J.P. Arencibia joins them with a OPS above 1.000.

Kila Ka’aihue is 26 years old. In over 2800 minor league plate appearances, Ka’aihue has compiled an OBP above .400 and an .880 OPS. Last season at AAA, Ka’aihue walked his way to a .392 OBP and a .825 OPS – Ka’aihue walked over 100 times in less than 600 plate appearances. He had a poor .272 BABIP, too – adjusting for luck and park, according to Minor League Splits, gives him a 2009 line of .293/.424/.474.

He’s made a huge step forward this year. The BABIP is up to a more typical AAA number of .341. He’s walking even more – Ka’aihue has walked 74 times in 307 plate appearances, a 24.1% walk rate which is easily the highest in all of professional baseball, easily eclipsing MLB leader (>100 PA) George Kottaras’s 18.6% rate. The power is up as well, as Ka’aihue has 32 XBH including 16 HRs, good for a .283 ISO.

Ka’aihue has been, simply put, the best hitter in the minor leagues in 2010. At age 26, it’s unlikely that he has much left to learn, and the Royals have been the third worst power hitting team in the league, with a .120 ISO. Ka’aihue (along with Gordon) would seem to be a perfect shot in the arm for a struggling offense.

There are two possible reasons for the Royals leaving Ka’aihue in the minors: first, they simply don’t believe that he’s good enough to hit major league pitching, or second, they don’t believe he fits in the roster as currently constructed.

Given Kila’s fantastic season to date, I find the first to be hard to believe. There was certainly an argument to leaving him in the minors to start the season – ZiPS projected a mere .319 wOBA, and CHONE projected a .333 wOBA, neither of which is good enough given Ka’aihue’s position and questionable defensive skills. However, given Kila’s massive step forward in AAA, there’s reason to believe he can put up a solid, .350+ wOBA in the Major Leagues. His updated ZiPS projection is already up 16 points since the season started.

With many of these AAA players that we rave about (Alex Gordon, Matt Murton, etc.), the damning evidence against them is typically a season or two or marginal MLB performance. That excuse simply isn’t there with Ka’aihue – he’s received a total of 28 Major League plate appearances. At 26, he should still be on the good side of his peak. Yes, there’s a possibility that he flames out in the Major Leagues, but perhaps he rakes and becomes a stalwart .380+ wOBA first baseman – even a .350 wOBA Russell Branyan type would have value.

The second reason carries a bit more weight: Billy Butler and Jose Guillen, the primary 1B and DH, have two of the three best batting lines on the team. Butler’s .376 wOBA is only second to David DeJesus, and Guillen’s .349 comes third. Ideally, the team finds a trading partner for Guillen, but that probably won’t happen given his awful contract. It’s possible that the team could bench Mitch Maier and his .312 wOBA in CF, shift DeJesus there, play Guillen in right, and let Ka’aihue DH. However, this would leave the Royals with a terrible defensive outfield with Scott Podsednik in left field.

The solution for the Royals really isn’t that simple. Guillen is playing too well to simply jettison, and Butler is one of the team’s best players. It seems that Ka’aihue will have to continue paying his dues in Omaha, even though he’s clearly among the best hitters in the league and well deserving of a legitimate shot in the Majors. Still, it’s getting late for Ka’aihue, at 26, and the Royals should do whatever they can to get him in their lineup at this point.

The book on David Aardsma was always the same: power arm with a blessed fastball, but wild command and an affinity for fly balls – and by extension, home runs. He was essentially a major league journeyman. The former first round pick out of Rice had spent the first few seasons of his career within the Giants organization but only appeared in big league games for the club in 2004. His next major league appearance would come for the Cubs in 2006. In 2007 he’d stay in Chicago, but move to the Southside. In 2008 he’d remain a Stocking, but change hues from Black to Red.

Think about that. Aardsma pitched in every season from 2006 to 2009 and never spent time with any one team in consecutive seasons despite a live arm. That all changed in 2010 as Seattle became his home. His first real major league home. Consistency in role and location is supposed to make players better, right? Aardsma probably has a real comfort level with how the Safeco bullpen mound translates to the playing field mound. And how Safeco’s dimensions play on humid days and cool days alike. He mostly knows the divisional foes and how potent or weak their lineups are. That should make a player a little more aware, a little better.

Except it hasn’t; at all. It would be ridiculously unfair to expect Aardsma to fully replicate his 2009 season. He posted a 3.01 FIP, a 4.12 xFIP, and a 2.53 ERA. Those are pretty good numbers from anyone, but he always posted a 4.2% HR/FB and a career low groundball rate (25.3%) which, well, nobody needs to have what regression means spelled out to them. Moving forward, it was simply unrealistic to expect Aardsma to have that kind of luck continue. This season, his HR/FB is up to 12.1%; nearly a career high and well above his average. He’s gotten a few more groundballs than last, but his ERA is over a 5, his FIP is over 4.5, and his xFIP is 4.32.

Not much has gone right for the Mariners this season, and Aardsma is another example. While none of the projection systems figured he’d post an ERA less than 3.5 or a FIP less than 3.97; they also didn’t have him as one of the worst relievers in a bullpen that’s failed to impress. Nobody should’ve seen 2009 Aardsma walking through that door again, but nobody should expect to see 2010 Aardsma to continue at this pace either.

Same premise as this afternoon, only we’re dealing with the Senior Circuit this time around.

Andrew McCutchen, CF
Chase Utley, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Albert Pujols, 1B
Adrian Gonzalez, DH
Matt Holliday, LF
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Jayson Werth, RF
Brian McCann, C

Bench: Yadier Molina (C), Joey Votto (1B/PH), David Wright (3B), Jose Reyes (SS/PR), Colby Rasmus (OF)

Roy Halladay, SP

Bullpen: Jonathan Broxton (R), Billy Wagner (L), Luke Gregerson (R), Hong-Chih Kuo (L), Sean Marshall (L), Matt Belisle (R, long guy)

With the American League putting a left-handed Cliff Lee on the mound, the NL line-up leans pretty heavily to the right-hand side. It would anyway, as most of the NL’s best hitters are right-handed, but it would be interesting to see how the match-ups unfolded after Lee left the game. For those wondering about the starter/reserve decisions, Zimmerman gets the nod due to his better defense, which is more important with Halladay’s sinker, while Gonzalez edges out Votto because I had to pick someone – there’s no wrong answer between those two.

In terms of in-game management, you’d probably pinch-hit Wright for McCann at some point when the AL had an LHP on the mound and Votto for McCutchen if there was a righty on the hill, but besides that, you’re not making a whole lot of changes. Even using Reyes as a pinch-runner would be tougher because you’d lose your only reserve shortstop, but the need to have both a RH and LH bat off the bench for pinch hitting limits the flexibility.

What the team lacks on the position player side of things, though, they make up for on the mound. Even as good as the AL hitters are, I don’t see them putting together a lot of offense against Halladay and that bullpen. An extreme groundball guy with great command being relieved by four guys who are nearly impossible to hit, plus a couple of nifty multi-inning relievers from each side if the game goes into extra innings? That’d be quite the challenge for American League hitters to overcome.

All told, this would be a fascinating game to watch. If MLB wants to give home field advantage to one league or another based on one game, how about having this affair right after the World Series ends? Who wouldn’t watch that? It’d be great theatre.

Today’s edition of One Night Only is totally organic and farm-raised and all that crap.

Cleveland at Texas | Tuesday, July 6 | 8:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Indians: Justin Masterson (NERD: 8)
94.2 IP, 7.32 K/9, 3.99 BB/9, .345 BABIP, 64.2% GB, 9.8% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP

Rangers: C.J. Wilson (NERD: 2)
102.1 IP, 6.42 K/9, 4.22 BB/9, .258 BABIP, 51.0% GB, 5.9% HR/FB, 4.64 xFIP

A Possible Comment You’re Making
Hey, chief: what’s the deal? C.J. Wilson has a crap NERD score. What’re you thinking? Why not talk about Jered Weaver (8) versus Jake Peavy (6) tonight. Or CC Sabathia (7) versus Trevor Cahill (6)?

Two or Three Comments I’m Making Right Back
1. Don’t call me “chief.”

2. Yes, it’s true: we live in a post-NERD world now. And, yes, we have to face it: things just aren’t as simple as they used to be. I get it. But we also have to make sure that — despite the fact that simply because the incredibly proprietary and deadly accurate NERD score is designed to make our lives easier — we have to make sure that we don’t stop using our mind grapes. It’s like that part in the Bible where God says, “And I giveth thee Mind Grapes, so that ye will always use them, etc., etc.” That’s a direct quote. I’m not lying.

Anyway, if you’ll recall, when Jerome Holtzman invented the Save, he was doing so merely to credit a certain breed of pitcher for their otherwise nebulous contributions to the game. What happened, as we generally know, is that coaches began to deploy relievers not according to leverage (if they ever really did in the first place, I don’ know), but according to the criteria of the save. That’s what we in the industry refer to as “totally lame-o.”

3. My point: C.J. Wilson has become a credible starting pitcher — one with a groundball rate above 50% — after relieving all of last season and for most of his career before that.

Cleveland’s Rookie Crop
If, like that great philosopher Socrates, you’re into hairless youths, then the Cleveland Indians are very probably your jam. Here’s the Cleveland lineup from last night’s game at Texas.

Michael Brantley, CF, 23
Jayson Nix, 2B, 27
Carlos Santana, C, 24
Travis Hafner, DH, 33
Austin Kearns, RF, 30
Jhonny Peralta, 3B, 28
Matt LaPorta, 1B, 25
Trevor Crowe, LF, 26
Jason Donald, SS, 25

Per Baseball Reference, the average age of a field player in the MLB this year is 29.2 years old. Cleveland’s lineup last night had an average age of 26.8 years old.

Briefly, On Carlos Santana
He’s so good. Right now, he’s slashing .297/.436/.622. That’s good for a .447 wOBA and 184 wRC+. He’s walking (19 BB) more than he strikes out (14 K). He hit a ball 444 feet last night.

Briefly, On Jayson Nix
He appears to be the new second baseman for the Indians. He hit two homers for the Tribe last night. Also, if, hypothetically speaking, you’re the sort of person who owned both Dustin Pedroia and Chase Utley on your fantasy team, Nix might not be the worst replacement in the world. He had 12 homers and 10 stolen bases for the White Sox in just half a season last year.

If I Had My Druthers
The next person to whom I mention the name Carlos Santana will not, like almost all of his predecessors, make an allusion to Black Magic Woman or sweet guitar licks or anything else like that.