If It Counted: National League
Same premise as this afternoon, only we’re dealing with the Senior Circuit this time around.
Andrew McCutchen, CF
Chase Utley, 2B
Hanley Ramirez, SS
Albert Pujols, 1B
Adrian Gonzalez, DH
Matt Holliday, LF
Ryan Zimmerman, 3B
Jayson Werth, RF
Brian McCann, C
Bench: Yadier Molina (C), Joey Votto (1B/PH), David Wright (3B), Jose Reyes (SS/PR), Colby Rasmus (OF)
Roy Halladay, SP
Bullpen: Jonathan Broxton (R), Billy Wagner (L), Luke Gregerson (R), Hong-Chih Kuo (L), Sean Marshall (L), Matt Belisle (R, long guy)
With the American League putting a left-handed Cliff Lee on the mound, the NL line-up leans pretty heavily to the right-hand side. It would anyway, as most of the NL’s best hitters are right-handed, but it would be interesting to see how the match-ups unfolded after Lee left the game. For those wondering about the starter/reserve decisions, Zimmerman gets the nod due to his better defense, which is more important with Halladay’s sinker, while Gonzalez edges out Votto because I had to pick someone – there’s no wrong answer between those two.
In terms of in-game management, you’d probably pinch-hit Wright for McCann at some point when the AL had an LHP on the mound and Votto for McCutchen if there was a righty on the hill, but besides that, you’re not making a whole lot of changes. Even using Reyes as a pinch-runner would be tougher because you’d lose your only reserve shortstop, but the need to have both a RH and LH bat off the bench for pinch hitting limits the flexibility.
What the team lacks on the position player side of things, though, they make up for on the mound. Even as good as the AL hitters are, I don’t see them putting together a lot of offense against Halladay and that bullpen. An extreme groundball guy with great command being relieved by four guys who are nearly impossible to hit, plus a couple of nifty multi-inning relievers from each side if the game goes into extra innings? That’d be quite the challenge for American League hitters to overcome.
All told, this would be a fascinating game to watch. If MLB wants to give home field advantage to one league or another based on one game, how about having this affair right after the World Series ends? Who wouldn’t watch that? It’d be great theatre.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Have the game right after the WS? When most of the players have been off for a month?
Sounds like a great idea!
I think you forgot Omar Infante….
Dave, I’ll put possible bias upfront here, but to have Zimmerman over Wright is just odd.
Zimmerman vs lefties (2010): 148 wRC+ (.397 wOBA)
Wright vs lefties (2010): 253 wRC+ (.551 wOBA)
Zimmerman vs lefties (career): 141 wRC+ (.387 wOBA)
Wright vs lefties (career): 177 wRC+ (.441 wOBA)
Considering that this is one game where a groundball may never even come towards third base, and considering what we know about the limitations of defensive stats, there is no way you can say that the tipping point is a ball hit to third that may never come, that may not be important if it does, and that Wright probably gets anyway, when the offensive disparity is that large.
In fact, Wright, who has a .404 wOBA on the year, should be leading off instead of McCutchen (.368).
The fewest GB Halladay has generated in any single game all year is six. The average is 11. The odds of a third baseman getting no chances in a game he starts are slim to none.
You have to regress split data as much or more than defensive data. You can’t take one at face value and scoff at the other.
Still, what are the odds that one of those ground balls would be a single against Wright but an out for Zimmerman? I think it would be smaller than the chances of Wright getting one extra total base than Zimmerman at the dish.
The potential defensive run differential gained/lost between Wright and Zimmerman at third base for one game, even with 11 groundballs, can no way outweigh the 37 (.393 to .356) point differential in wOBA over their careers. Especially if you leadoff with Wright instead of McCutchen, which would also gain you offensive value.
Wright’s .441 career wOBA versus lefties is in over one thousand plate appearances. He’s amazing versus lefties. Regress it, and he’s still great.
Regress split data more than you are. You have to.
I’ve written about my thoughts on splits:
http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/blog_article/how-do-you-spot-a-lefty-masher/
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/ryan-howard-and-handedness/
I think we sometimes look for data than we need to in order to observe a skill with regards to splits.
Besides that, Wright is just way better offensively in general. The defensive stats don’t just come with regression issues, they come with problems inherent to themselves that offensive stats (relatively) do not.
ZIPS projects a .404 wOBA going forward for Wright versus a .375 wOBA for Zimmerman. A 29 point gap in wOBA, over three plate appearances, is equal to about .07 runs.
If Zimmerman is +10 runs better defensively than Wright over a 150 games season (I don’t think you can realistically argue for much less), then the gap between the two with the glove in one game is – drumroll, please – .07 runs.
I think Halladay’s groundballness (which we know is real) outweighs Wright’s split data (which we do not know is real). Reasonable people can disagree on that, but it’s obviously close either way. People who are painting this as a cut and dried case are just not doing the math correctly.
And this is coming from a Nats (and Cards) fan. As of June 28th, I had been saying that Zimm should start over Wright. Now? Not so much.
Is looking at career splits vs lefties not enough regression? Obviously the 2010 #’s are a small sample size, but the career #’s show a 54point difference as opposed to the 29point delta you’ve chosen, because you ignore lefty data (and lefty data over multiple years).
When you say regress it more, specifically what exactly do you mean (other than “I’m right and Pat’s wrong”). It seems like you’ve chosen to regress it to all AB’s regarding handiness of the pitcher and chose a ZIPS projection as opposed to actual performance… is that what you mean by regress it more?
Also there’s a pretty good chance at 4AB’s unless there are only 6 baserunners allowed. But whatever you can do to limit the wOBA delta and make it as similar as possible to UZR impact, right?
“ZIPS projects a .404 wOBA going forward for Wright versus a .375 wOBA for Zimmerman. A 29 point gap in wOBA, over three plate appearances, is equal to about .07 runs.”
this doesn’t account for the fact that the opponents starter is a lefty? if we are factoring in the fact that halladay gets a lot of groundballs agianst wright then you cant argue that factoring in that lee is a lefty…
Read this.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/estimating-hitter-platoon-skill/
Also, try to avoid making baseless claims that I’m cooking the numbers when you don’t understand how the numbers should be treated.
And no, it won’t be 4 PA difference. Lee won’t throw a CG, especially against that kind of line-up, and Wright will be used as a pinch-hitter in a high leverage situation, likely against a lefty, or at the very least, in a situation where the other option would have been McCann vs an LHB.
So the #7 batter won’t bat 4 times in the game? (not just against Lee, but in general) At least call it 3.5… If your thinking is they may be pinchhit for late in the game with a righty on the mound, then you probably shouldn’t use a full 9innings of defensive value for Zimmerman either.
I will avoid making baseless claims when you avoid arrogant comments like “anyone who thinks this is cut and dry is just not doing the math correctly”… I wasn’t questioning the math… I was questioning the inputs you were using (there is a difference).
1) As was said, you need to factor in Wright facing Lee, a lefty. Moreover, you assume a lefty is not replacing Lee or facing Wright at any other point. 2) Wright leading off versus McCutchen leading off not only is a plus, but makes it eminently more likely Wright gets more PA’s vs. Lee. 3) Legitimacy of offensive stats vs. UZR. I don’t think this is “open and shut.” Just clear.
It’s not an arrogant claim – you don’t understand how split data needs to be interpreted. You said so yourself.
And, look, the PA thing is easy. If Wright starts, you assume 4 PA for him and 1 for Zimmerman. If Zimmerman starts, you assume 4 PA for him and 1 for Wright. The difference? 3 PA.
Wow, typical “I’m smarter than you and I don’t need to explain why” kind of response from Dave.
Wright has about 1000 PAs against LHPs, so we need to roughly average that with the league average split (total 2200 PAs if you like), then do that same with Zimmerman (who has less PAs, at 741). So Wright is about 18% better against LHP and Zimmerman is 12% better. Now league average is about 6% better. So, Zimmerman also suffers from this regression. His split is lower, but so are his PAs, meaning more of that 2200 is league average. Anyway to do that math, we get that Wright is 11.45% better against LHP and Zimmerman is 7.97% better. Now if we like we could use Zips projections to adjust for future talent (assuming split skill stays constant), so 1.1145*.404 gives an wOBA of .450 for Wright and .405 for Zimmerrman (1.0797*.375). This gives us about a .045 wOBA skill difference between the two against LHP going foward. This is a far bit larger than Dave’s .029 difference used.
Anyway, it appears Dave should take his own advice and not scoff the split data off by using just the plain Zips projection. We just increased Wright’s expected runs over Zimmerman by 50%. by actually doing the math, instead of just making dismissive remarks about regressing “more” without really describing what exactly it would be or the effect it would have. And when it takes about 5 minutes to do this, I just wonder why Dave feels the need to make these remarks about not doing the math correctly without actually doing the math himself.
This might actually end up being a distinction without a difference, or Dave may actually be right, I just find it entertaining to watch Dave get all short and defensive when people bring up a valid criticism.
I think your #’s are off a bit (but thanks for running them) It should be:
[18%*1020+6.1%*2200]/(1020+2200)… actually more like 17.7%
Or looking at it a different way the ‘extra’ 12% Wright has vs lefties is ~1/3 real (1020/[1020+2200]) which is an extra ~4% + the 6.1% baseline or ~10% (you have it ~11%). Similarly I think your Zimm adjusted split is a bit higher than it should be. (Yes, I knowingly dumbed down the math and rounded liberally, but folks get the idea..)
Either way it gets back to the point that you need to regress it, but it doesn’t regress to league average… and that’s what is troubling. The “if it’s real” arrogance – Dave of all people should be very familiar with the regression and should know that with 1020 PA’s some of it is indeed real.
I don’t know if it’s a simple error, just assuming it’s a small impact, or not wanting to acknowledge a mistake, but I wonder if this will be acknowledged at all as a potentially real impact or just continued to be swept under the regression rug?
Hank, thanks for the correction. I forgot that 2200 stays in there.
Also, with the fielding Zimmerman is roughly +12, while Wright is basically league average. Can you remind us how the regression is done, I missed that whole UZR update. Though remembering the basics that cut was at 2000 innings, or roughly 2 seasons. Now Zimmerman has played about 4, so his fielding is only 2/3 real right? Taking him down to +8, not +10. as Dave claimed right?
Then we now seem to be weighing the difference between Wright and Zimmerman for 4 and 1 or 1 and 4 PAs respectively. So that hurts Zimmerman’s fielding value as much as it hurts Wright’s batting.
Wally – not as familiar with a specific UZR regression… what you hear thrown out a lot is that you should at least look at 3 years of data. Though to me that seems sketchy as it should be position dependent (as the # of chances at a position per year is obviously not the same across the board).
Zimmerman’s UZR and UZR/150 has been fairly consistent over his career and obviously coincides with the sabremetically dreaded “eye test” – the guy is without a doubt an elite fielder. Wright’s #’s have bounced around a bunch. Wright has either been -4.9 or worse (a poor fielder) or 5.0 or better (a good fielder) every year… but has never been in between.
Also there are some inconsistencies even when looking at 3 years of data…Have Nelson Cruz and Ryan Sweeney really been more valuable (and saved more runs) than Ichiro defensively over the last 3 years? And both of those guys have 2-3X the ARM runs above average over Ichiro? Have Joe Crede and Jack Hannahan been better than Zimmerman (in terms of UZR/150 over 3 years)?
I’d say Zimmerman’s #’s are real (based subjectively on observation), but I don’t see Wright as merely a league average 3rd baseman as the #’s suggest he is.
Wonder if Dave will respond…
Not going to get into this crap again, so I’ll bow out with this.
I was responding to Pat’s assertion that the offensive difference, even when ignoring split data, was so large as to overwhelm the defensive gap. That’s simply not true, and I laid out why that’s not true, by showing the difference in expected runs in a neutral setting.
In reality, when the context neutral difference is zero, then the minor game specific effects aren’t going to matter enough to make it worth trying to discern exactly what the difference is. It’s hair splitting. We’re talking hundredths of a run here, well within any reasonable margin for error. The two are close enough in talent level that there is not going to be a conclusive obvious right answer either way or another.
If you want to run the numbers to determine whether the platoon effect or the groundball effect is .02 or .04 runs larger, go right ahead. You just don’t get to conclude that one player is clearly the right choice based on such a small difference, so finding out exactly what that number is doesn’t really interest me.
And now, I’ll leave you guys to your Dave bashing.
Holy smokes a DC response.
Nevermind, a day full of DC responses. I really liked the if it counted concept Dave. Especially good as a follow up to peoples response to the initial Allstar game roster. Good show.
Wait, but he just ran the numbers, and it WAS big enough. Wasn’t it concluded that there was at least a 0.040 wOBA difference?
Then:
0.040/1.15 * 3 which .104.
Assuming 6 innings difference of fielding at a +12 UZR/150 rate:
1/150 * 12 * 2/3 = 0.053.
So you get a difference of at least 0.05.
The point is your “I’m not going to get into this crap again comment” is “I’m wrong, I don’t want to admit it, so I’ll continue bashing the argument.”
This is really kind of pathetic. At least admit the people brought up a good argument, which they did, and AT LEAST APOLOGIZE TO THEM FOR BEING SO RUDE. You’re a quasi-professional journalist. Don’t get mad at people because they’re trying to help you get the right answer. Don’t get mad at people for stimulating debate. And really, golden rule of journalism?
DON’T INSULT YOUR READER BASE.
Yeah…yeah, what Andy said. Exactly what Andy said.
There’s a way to respectfully disagree, which you did at various points in the discussion, without coming off like a condescending prick (which you did at other points in the discussion).
Andy, thanks for putting that so well.
The numbers run correctly come out to pretty much exactly .040 difference in wOBA against LHPs. Then you use 12 UZR/150, but we should probably regress that number toward league average by maybe 33-50% (I can’t remember the exact accepted UZR regression formula). Leaving it somewhere between 6-9 runs/150. So we are probably talking about a difference of .07 runs/game at the very least, maybe up to .1 (using low estimates for UZR and 4 PAs). Also, I just always give offensive data more credit even past the regressions. Good defense is a skill lost earlier in a player’s career than good offense. So, if we’re using career numbers, even for a 26 year old like Zimmerman, he may very well not be as good as his past stats due to true talent changes, not just because of noise issues with the metric. Meaning, if everything seems to come out equal, I’m going to lean towards the guy with the better offense. And in this case the guy with the better offense already has a pretty good advantage considering we’re talking just one game. If they played a season with this kind of disparity, we’re talking 10-15 runs.
So yeah, I do think I’m doing the math correctly here Dave, and attempting to tell other’s they aren’t while you also are not doing it correctly is what causes these kinds responces from your readers. For the most part the people here are intellegent, well informed and not out to get you. They bring up this kind of stuff because they think you over looked something and want to know the true answer. There is nothing wrong with voicing a little criticism, but getting defensive when faced with valid criticisms only shows your own faults, not that of others.
Andy – thanks for the comment as I feel it in part was directed at me (or Wally or Pat or…).
I still can’t believe the “if its real” label he put on David Wright’s better than average splits against lefties… which basically is telling his readers there is not enough data to statistically determine it (which as we, and I think Dave, know by now is not the case).
Putting aside the whole Zim vs Wright strawman… he’s telling his readers that 1000 PA’s against a lefty cannot tell you anything? And his answer is “regress it more”….when asked how much he wanted to regress it (so I could understand his argument ), I was condescendingly pointed to a link which more or less proves my point… some of it is indeed real. My question wasn’t how do I regress it, I wanted to understand how much Dave was regressing it as I thought he was discounting it far too much (which turned out to be the case)
Part of this is my fault with the initial attitude, but there does seem to be a common theme of attitude in people commenting on Dave’s articles (more so it seems than other authors). Correlation does not equal causation so folks can decide whether it is just Dave bashing and he is a victim of circumstance, or whether he possibly brings this on himself?
Wright has 1010 PA’s versus lefties… if you go by “the book” you’d end up regressing his career #’s about halfway between his actual split and an average righthanded hitter platoon split… (OK a little less than halfway with the 2200 PA’s theorized to be needed)
I wasn’t asking how to regress it, I was asking how much are YOU regressing it? Based on your comments you seemed to be more or less discounting it completely. You say you need to regress it more, then later you ask if it’s real… is at least some of Wright’s split not real?
That should probably be more like 1/3 real.
Dave, the difference between Wright and Zimmerman in ZiPS projected wOBA is 0.027 (.402-.375). I have that as a difference of 16.5 runs over 700 PA. Let’s say Wright has average defense, or -0.6 like over his career, and Zimmerman has +10, or +12.5 like over his career. Does Halladay’s groundball tendency make that much of a difference? What do you have as Wright’s wOBA against lefties and Zimmerman’s wOBA against lefties?
Why do you have Holliday over Willingham?
Or Ryan Braun. Justin Upton is also absent, as is Carlos Marmol. How can you pass that sort of strikeout machine in the bullpen with Broxton and Wagner?
Re: Marmol….It might have something to do with that 6+BB/9. Maybe. Wagner’s career BB/9 is half that and Broxton’s is under 2 this year.
I am a huge Gonzalez fan, but if we’re talking about the game behind held right now, its not a question between Votto and Gonzalez. Gonzalez is dealing with a shoulder problem that has sapped him over the past…2-3 weeks or so, maybe longer?
If you want to give the NL the best chance at winning, Votto should be in that lineup — if I’m going to use Gonzalez at all, its for a pinch hitting appearance.
If you’re going to point out Gonzalez’s shoulder injury, you probably should have also pointed out that Utley is practically incapable of playing right now.
Good point Bryz, I’m just fixated on Votto getting the snub 🙂
Call it the canuck in me 😉
I love the addition of Gregerson in the pen he has been unhittable this season. But I agree D Wright should be getting the start and if anything put Zimmerman in the game later for defense. I also would rather have Votto DH.
I’m wondering where fellow unhittable Padre Mike Adams is…
Agreed with the other posters: Votto over Adrian Gonzalez and Wright over Zimmerman. Offensively, Votto’s got Gonzalez beat by 10 runs and, like spindoctor mentioned, he doesn’t have any of the health issues currently afflicting AGonz. He’s also a better defender, though obviously that’s not too important when we’re dealing with a DH.
Wright over Zimmerman is a no-brainer, IMO. He’s not such an inferior fielder to negate the offensive edge he has over Zimmerman, and he’s a whole lot faster. On a team that isn’t exactly fleet of foot, that’s the deal breaker for me.
The offensive edge of Wright is more mirage than most here realize. If you go into the details and look at the quality of left handed pitchers that Wright has faced in his career and compare that to Zim you will see that Zim has faced a statistically significant higher quality of left handed pitchers than Wright. One easy example is that Wright gets to face John Lannan rather than Johan Santana, but there are far more examples than that. Think about it if 1 out of 10 of your games against lefties are against some loser with a 5 or 6 era (such as the nationals have routinely played the last 3-4 seasons) and you replace those with games against top quality pitching with 3 eras or better such as Santana, than that alone could account for allot of difference in numbers between Zimmerman and Wright. If you look closely at who each has had to face you will see Zim routinely faces significantly tougher lefties about 10% of the time. A second probably lessor factor is JFK vs Shea. Most people who adjust for park effects fail to recognize that JFK was much tougher on right handers than left handers, So Zim’s number against lefties career are being a skewed by that a bit. Whereas Shea has been tougher on lefties and kinder to righties. Those park differences make some difference as well and I am fairly sure park adjustments are not accounting those properly. But even if they are the difference in pitcher quality between who Zim has faced and Wright are different and will account for allot of the difference in their numbers versus lefthanders.
I don’t think you can leave Votto out of the lineup.
And the offensive difference b/w Wright and Zimmerman (especially with Wright’s dominance against LHP) more than makes up for the advantage Zim brings defensively
I would start Molina, agree Votto for DH but like he stated you could put either player in that spot and not be too disappointed. If I was allowed one roster move it would be to take Werth out of the lineup and to put Corey Hart in a little better against lefties this year.
NL starting lineup does not matter it cannot beat the AL lineup anyway.
Wright has to be above Zimmerman, especially against a lefty…..
Barmes
Barmes?!? Really?? At 2B or SS? At SS, I think he would slot in *WELL* behind Hanley. And Tulo. And Reyes. And Rollins. And Furcal.
At 2B? If Utley, and Phillips, and Uggla, and Prado all vanished, I might let him have a three-way fight to the death with Freddy Sanchez and Kelly Johnson for the honors.
Who would you replace Utley with since he’s hurt? Just curious.
Infante
Prado?
How can anyone justify starting Zimmerman over Wright? Wright is a much better hitter, not just against lefties, but overall and really isn’t that bad of a fielder either. Sure, he’s not Zimmerman great but he’s still about average.
So who do we think would win this game? The author seems to think the NL would win thanks to the pitching edge, or that’s how I read it. I would love to see a simulation of this series, that in and of itself would be theater. If the NL is going to be penalized for health though, looking at you Chace, I’d say the AL has a distinct edge.
Question: Pujols’ UZR has been heading the wrong way for a few years now. Is it possible that perhaps he should be the DH with Votto or Gonzalez (I’d go with Votto because he’s having a much better year so far) starting at 1st? I haven’t seen much of Pujols this year, so I don’t really know what he looks like in the field right now.
No, Pujols is still an excellent defender. Don’t look at UZR trends, just take an average. I think you’ll find very few scouts who will say Votto is a better defender than Pujols – most will say Pujols is one of the best in the league.
To further pick nits, I assume you realize that the only two NL hitters to get to 4 WAR this year are NOT starting in your lineup.
What is the reasoning for leaving Olivo out? Is it because he plays at Coors, or because he’s having a career year? I can’t think of any other reasons, but he’s been more productive than either Molina or McCann so far this year.
Guessing it’s mostly the career year thing. Even in Olivo’s career year and a not overly spectacular year from McCann they’re fairly comparable in value:
Olivo .383 wOBA, 131 wRC+, 3.0 WAR
McCann .369 wOBA, 130 wRC+, 2.6 WAR
But career wise, it’s just not particularly close:
Olivo .306 wOBA, 85 wRC+, 10.9 WAR
McCann .365 wOBA, 124 wRC+, 21.1 WAR
Wright is the hotter bat as of today than Zim. Usually the better hitter gets the start vs the slicker fielder. Utley is out for 8 weeks after thumb surgery. I’m guessing Prado gets the nod at 2B. AGon has been hurt since the first month of the season… pinch hitter at best. Votto is crushing the ball so I’d have him at DH. McCutchen didn’t make the team either and not sure he really deserved to be there anyway. Bat Wright leadoff, followed by Prado, Pujols, Votto, HanRam, Holliday LF, Werth CF, McCann, and Either RF.
Lastly, World Series home field advantage would be better being attached to who won the World Series the year before or which team won the most regular season games than the current scheme of making the All-Star Game winner the home field advantage for the World Series. Another consideration would be having the All-Star Game winner determine which League gets the next All-Star Game. Now that would make the NL try harder to win for a change.
“…how about having this affair right after the World Series ends?”
How about right after the regular season ends? World Series teams are still undecided, and about half the players on the roster would know they’re going to be in the postseason. They’d likely have more reason to play hard from the first inning on.
For teams/starters not moving on it is still the parade of team studs, but there wouldn’t be any harrassment about Cliff Lee being on a 30-pitch limit because the Mariners want him to start three days later.
I think it would be a great way to start the postseason, honoring the actual season’s all-stars while also raising the level of intensity.
I’d add MarmoL. Walks only hurt if you give up homers (he doesn’t, 0.23 hr/9), or hits, or the bases are loaded.
His big plus is his 16.6 K/9 rate. Facing jitters of this quality, you’re looking for outs without contact. Factor in that the AL doesn’t see him regularly and there’s no pitcher like him in the AL and he’s a huge advantage.
Again, walking a guy in an inning is no big deal when you strike out 2 batters in the same inning. He only gets hurt if he fives up a bomb, and he doesn’t do that.
I would also start Yadi. If I understand correctly managers can re-enter one player. So have him in there to control the running game, hit for him (he’s currently in a 4-for-51 slump), and then re-enter him in the game to catch for 5-6 innings. Bat him last so you get more defense out of him … Then hit for him the 2nd time and let McCann finish the game.
With Halladay working down in the zone, you want Yadi in there to block balls in the dirt, etc.
I understand Dave didn’t want to give away the starting pitcher (at least entirely) in the AL side of things, but he’s obviously given some preference to RHBs in the NL thanks to Lee, so would things change much now knowing we should give LHBs some preference in the AL? Plus, maybe a RHB favorable bench?
I think you forgot about S. Rolen and C. Gonzalez.
I’m not starting Cliff Lee against these guys. Look for his teammate, King Felix, to take the rock.
So much discussion about infield defense (Zimmerman vs. Wright) but shouldn’t it be a consideration for the OF too? McCutchen has a negative UZR so far for his career and Rasmus isn’t that much better. Wouldn’t Andres Torres coming off the bench make more sense than Rasmus?
Rasmus isn’t a negative defender. He was +10 last year and has looked just as (really) rangy this year. 1/2 season of UZR means nothing, at worst average it all up and you still come up with an above average defender.
Yes average it all up and Rasmus is a slightly above average outfield defender (4.5 career UZR/150 in the OF), McCutchen is slightly below average (-3.7 UZR/15), and Torres is way way above average (20.2 UZR/150). Torres is also a legit base stealer who would be a better PR option. When we’re considering an OF for a bench role don’t those things provide more potential advantage than Rasmus’ edge with the bat? How many PAs are we imagining the backup OF is going to get anyway?
Dave,
I am very upset that the player I like from my favorite team was excluded from your hypothetical all-star team. Shame on you.
Aren’t Lincecum’s going-forward projections better than Halladay’s? Seems like you would rather have Lincecum.
Or maybe I don’t understand the premise. Are you trying to pick the best guys, as in the best guys going forward? Or are you picking the guys with the best first half of the season? If the game actually counted, which I believe was the premise given, I would pick the guys who are the best going forward.
And we are talking about forward-looking, you would want Manny Ramirez on your bench for a pinch-hitter. He still projects as the 2nd best hitter in the NL, and then you can avoid his defense. Or put him in the lineup as the #2 hitter, and take him out after the 1st inning…
I’m not about to suggest Martin Prado is a better player than Chase Utley, but he should at least be on the bench. The guy has been nothing but consistent ever since he made to the big league’s, and his power numbers are getting better and better every year. He plays excellent defense, he play 2B, 3B, 1B, LF, and RF, with 3B being his best position defensively. He is a high average guy(above 300), and right now I think he’l have 15-20 homers every year. He is a clutch hitter, he is a spark and will give you a good at bat every time up. He doesn’t walk much but he does work the count. He deserves to be in there.