Lefties, especially the hard-throwing variety, get every chance to succeed in the majors. If they come as highly touted prospects, or show positive results early in their careers, they’ll get plenty of chances even after their original team gives up. The Pirates have experienced this twice in the past few years, with Oliver Perez and then Tom Gorzelanny. While they made the right call in the case of the former, it appears they gave up prematurely in the case of the latter.

Something happened to Oliver Perez when he went to Pittsburgh in the Brian Giles trade. Almost immediately upon arrival he added a few ticks to his fastball and his slider. That might have been skewed due to a small sample, but he repeated those results again in 2004, when his fastball averaged 93 mph. At age 22, he ranked among the league’s best starters. His 2.98 ERA went nicely with a 3.45 FIP, and his 10.97 strikeouts per nine lead the league. The Pirates looked to have absolutely robbed the Padres, having also acquired Jason Bay, who posted a .378 wOBA in 2004, in the trade.

The following years would not be so kind to Perez. His fastball velocity dropped down to 91 mph, where it had been previously in his career. He also lost command of it and started walking hitters like crazy, 6.12 per nine in 2005. After another poor showing in 2006, the Pirates had apparently seen enough. After 15 horrendous starts they traded him to the Mets, though they received only Xavier Nady in return. They did, however, trade Nady two years later in a trade that got them Jose Tabata and a slew of pitchers, so that can be considered a win. It’s not like the Pirates had much of a chance to contend in the years between anyway.

The move appears to have worked out. Perez did have a good year for the Mets in 2007, but he has steadily declined since. Why the Mets signed him to a multi-year contract, never mind one for $36 million, defies comprehension. They have paid for it, though, as Perez pitched 66 horrible innings last year and managed just 38.2 this year before hitting the DL. While the Pirates might have gotten more for Perez had they hung onto him and experienced his quality 2007 season, there is no guarantee that things would work out that way. By all appearances they got rid of him perhaps not at the right time, but at time when they could still get something useful in return.

Last year, Pirates’ GM Neal Huntington apparently took a cue from his predecessor. Littlefield was the man behind the Perez move, and in similar fashion Huntington cut his losses on Gorzelanny, trading him to the Cubs at the deadline. Like Perez, Gorzelanny showed potential at a young age, a 3.88 ERA against a 4.24 FIP at age 24. Also like Perez he lost his control in the following years and produced terrible results. Perez had his excellent season in 2004 and was traded at the deadline a year and a half later. Gorzelanny had his good season in 2007 and was traded at the deadline a year and a half later.

The similarities continue. Upon joining their new teams, both Perez and Gorzelanny raised their strikeout rates and cut their walk rates. Both made seven starts, though Gorzelanny also pitched six times in relief. In their second years both realized further improvement. Perez kept his strikeout rate high and got his walks somewhat under control. In 177 innings he had a 3.56 ERA, 4.35 FIP, and 4.65 xFIP. It’s not ace material, but it’s serviceable for a middle of the rotation pitcher. Gorzelanny has proven even better during his first season with a new team, a 3.31 ERA with a 3.46 FIP and 3.98 xFIP.

Despite the similarities, Perez and Gorzelanny are different pitchers and so we cannot expect the parallel paths to continue. In fact, Gorzelanny has enough going for him that he can be expected to continue pitching well. I’m not even sure exactly why Pittsburgh, a team desperate for pitching, traded him in the first place. He was quite excellent in the high minors prior to his full-time MLB promotion, and even when the Pirates demoted him in 2008 and 2009 he pitched very well in the minors. Perez, on the other hand, struggled with his control even against lesser hitters.

Control seems like the biggest issue going forward with Gorzelanny. His walk rate, 4.63 per nine, can continue to hold him back, though he does make up for it by striking out a ton of hitters, 9.13 per nine this year, and keeping the ball inside the park, partly the effect of his 43.8 percent groundball rate. That’s not stellar, but it’s very good for a pitcher who strikes out more than a batter per inning. His walk rate is a bit better when looking at him only as a starter, 4.23 per nine, but even that will have to improve if he’s going to fulfill his promise as a No. 2 starter.

Performances like the one he turned in against the Diamondbacks don’t help his case. He lasted just five innings and needed 104 pitches along the way, only 61 of which were strikes. That led to six walks, his highest total of the season. Yet because he stranded eight of 11 baserunners he held Arizona to three runs and eventually earned the win. Strangely, it was only the 159th time since 1920 that a pitcher went five innings, walked six, and still got the win. Even more strangely, both Jorge de la Rosa and Kyle Davies accomplished it last year, on back-to-back days no less.

Like Perez, Gorzelanny’s resurgence could be a temporary thing. His control still isn’t where it needs to be, and that will be an important component of his game going forward. Yet Gorzelanny’s peripherals, both in the minors and the majors, make him look like a better case for permanent recovery. The Cubs, to their benefit, have three more years of team control, so they’ll get a long look at what Gorzelanny can do in the long run. Considering the state of the Pirates’ pitching, I’m sure Hungtington would love to get backsies on this one.

With the likes of Stephen Strasburg, Jason Heyward, and Carlos Santana in the majors this season, I wanted to take a look at some rookies who have performed well under the radar in 2010.

OF Chris Heisey, Cincinnati Reds
2010 Debut: 5/3
2010 WAR: 0.9

Despite playing in just 39 games this season, Heisey has put up 0.9 WAR for the year, which would be worth 3.5 WAR over 150 games. At twenty-five, Heisey is a little older than some of the more hyped-up rookies, and his Triple-A numbers this year (.241/.307/.430) weren’t too pretty. He started 0 for his first 7 big league at-bats, striking out three times. However, Heisey has hit .271/.371/.542 for the entire campaign, good for a .386 wOBA. He’s also done well in the field with 3.1 runs saved (UZR) while playing all three outfield positions.

1B Gaby Sanchez, Florida Marlins
2010 Debut: 4/5
2010 WAR: 2.2

Sanchez, twenty-six years old, had two cups of coffee in the big leagues prior to 2010 totaling 31 plate appearances. However, he’s broken out in a big way this season as the Marlins’ regular first baseman by hitting .308/.376/.481; that’s a .379 wOBA and 137 wRC+. His .342 BABIP may be above his true talent level, but ZiPS still projects a .356 wOBA going forward. Sanchez has also played well in the field with 1.9 runs saved at first base.

3B David Freese, St. Louis Cardinals
2010 Debut: 4/5
2010 WAR: 1.4

Freese may be the most interesting prospect of the bunch. At twenty-seven years old, his relatively low .404 SLG this year is odd considering his minor league rate of .532. With a .361 OBP, that’s a .342 wOBA and a 115 wRC+. His .376 BABIP is generally unsustainable, and with a 7.8 BB%, his rate of getting on base may see a dip in the future. His defense has been slightly below average this year according to UZR, but his 1.4 WAR overall has to have the Cardinals happy.

Next week, the AL and NL will hook up for an exhibition game. MLB is still pushing the “it counts” theme since home field advantage in the World Series is on the line, but no one treats the game like it really matters; the best players come out halfway through the game, guys are used out of position, and the roster is assembled with goals that directly conflict with putting the best team on the field. So, no, it doesn’t count.

But what if it did? What would the roster look like if the American League and National League were to play one game that really mattered, and their singular goal was to win that day? That’s what we’re going to take a look at today.

Below is my take on the 21 guys that would comprise the AL Roster. We won’t bother filling out the #2-#5 starter spots in the rotation, since this is just a one game deal, and we’re not going to convert starters into relievers for a day. The rosters are put together with not just the goal of having the best players, but the ones who make the most sense from a line-up construction/match-up standpoint, as well as tactical advantages for late game maneuvering. If the AL had to win just one game, this is the team I think they would put on the field.

Carl Crawford, LF
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Joe Mauer, C
Miguel Cabrera, DH
Josh Hamilton, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Derek Jeter, SS
Ichiro Suzuki, CF

Bench: Victor Martinez (C/1B), Justin Morneau (1B/PH), Ben Zobrist (UT), Brett Gardner (OF/PR), Elvis Andrus (SS/PR)

Cliff Lee, SP

Bullpen: Mariano Rivera (R), Matt Thornton (L), Neftali Feliz (R), Scott Downs (L), Rafael Soriano (R), David Hernandez (R, long guy)

The line-up is balanced, going from left/right from top to bottom, and it gets high on base guys in front of the guys who can pound the ball over the wall. Even Roy Halladay would have a tough time getting through that line-up too many times. Because of the high quality of hitters, you won’t do much pinch-hitting, which is why Morneau is the only “big bat” guy on the bench. You would probably have him pinch hit for Jeter against an RHP in a high leverage situation at some point in the game, which is why there are two guys on the bench who can play shortstop.

Gardner is on the team to steal a base, as he’s probably the best runner in the game right now. There are enough slow guys on the team that it’s tough to say who he would run for, which is why a guy like Zobrist is necessary, since you don’t know which position you would be subbing out when you need a late game stolen base. Having the guy who can play anywhere gives you a lot of flexibility. Martinez gets the nod over all the other catchers because he can also play first base, so you can pinch run for Youkilis after you’ve used Morneau as a pinch-hitter and still have a first baseman.

The pitching side is more straight forward. Lee is the best pitcher in the league right now, and should be able to give you six innings, even against a loaded NL line-up. Rivera is the obvious pick to close out the game, and then it’s just a mix of good RH and LH guys to get it to him. David Hernandez gets the call as a long reliever who can bring some heat if the game goes to extra innings and you need a guy to stay out there until it ends – his overall numbers aren’t great, but he’s been lights out since moving to the bullpen and the stuff is certainly there.

Could the NL put 21 guys on the field to match this squad? We’ll find out at 5 pm.

New York Yankees center fielder Curtis Granderson is in the midst of his fifth full season in the major leagues. After performing at roughly a league-average clip at the plate in 2006 (.333 wOBA), Granderson went on to crush the ball in 2007 and 2008. The former third-round pick in the 2002 draft posted a .395 wOBA in ’07 and a .374 wOBA in ’08. Granderson’s bat, worth +1.2 runs above average during his first full season, jumped to +35.7 in 2007 and +23 in 2008.

Since then, however, Granderson’s lumber has been merely decent. He turned in a .340 wOBA last season (+6 runs above average), and he has a mild .318 wOBA (-1 run) during his first year in the Bronx. Granderson still possesses an above-average walk rate and good pop…

..but his BABIP has taken a big tumble. The lefty batter had a .333 BABIP in 2006, a .360 BABIP in 2007, and a .316 BABIP in 2008. His BABIP dipped to .275 last year, and it sits at .265 in 2010. Here are Granderson’s batted ball percentages over the years:

He’s hitting fewer grounders, and more balls classified as fly balls and liners. Fly balls have a lower BABIP than ground balls, but line drives fall for hits 72 to 73 percent of the time on average.

What are Granderson’s expected BABIP totals over the years? To help answer that, we can use this expected BABIP tool from The Hardball Times, based off the research of Peter Bendix and Chris Dutton. Dutton and Bendix found that hitter’s eye (BB rate/SO rate), line drive rate, Speed Score, pitches per PA and power all have a positive relationship with BABIP. The simple xBABIP tool uses a batter’s rate of home runs, stolen bases, line drives, fly balls, ground balls and pop ups to estimate BABIP. Here are Granderson’s actual BABIP and xBABIP totals since ’06:

While Granderson’s actual BABIP has been all over the place, his xBABIP has been fairly consistent. The exception is 2009, when his xBABIP was low due to a high rate of pop ups hit (13%, compared to a 7.6% career average and the 7-8% MLB average). His xBABIP is .310 this season, yet his BABIP is just .265. What gives? To shed further light on Granderson’s BABIP decline, here are his numbers by batted ball type over the years:

I highlighted the two biggest changes — Granderson’s BABIP on fly balls has gone from way, way above average to well below average. Further, his BABIP on liners is low this season. Here’s a graph that shows Granderson’s BABIP by batted ball type since 2006, compared to the AL average. The FB line falls off a cliff:

Granderson should show improvement in the second half of the season — his rest-of-season ZiPS calls for a .346 wOBA, with his BABIP climbing to .286. But I’m curious what you readers think, particularly Tigers and Yankees fans. Is Granderson doing something noticeably different at the plate over the past two years? Could it be related to his percentage of lefties faced, which is quite high this season (37 percent, compared to 28 percent in ’09, 25.3 in ’08, 19.7 in ’07, and 24.2 in ’06)? Do you buy the rest-of-season ZiPS BABIP, or do you expect something different?

One rumor that has been flying around twitter is that the Twins have offered outfield prospect Aaron Hicks and catcher prospect Wilson Ramos for Cliff Lee, which would be a solid haul for only half a season of Lee, as Aaron Gleeman outlines over at Hardball Talk. Hicks is a top 20 prospect according to Baseball America and Ramos is top 60. Gleeman calls giving both away for merely a rental to be “uncharacteristic” for the Twins.

Dan Wade of TwinsMVB tweeted the following upon hearing the rumor:

Losing Hicks and Ramos in the Lee deal would forever taint my opinion of Bill Smith. Beyond stupid to part with Hicks for a rental.

David Brown of Big League Stew then asked the obvious question: “What if the Twins win the World Series?”

I think the answer would be clear for most Twins fans. “Flags fly forever” – The World Series is the ultimate goal for the organization (outside of the business side, of course), and so a couple of good prospects and some future wins could easily be sacrificed to attain a World Championship. Praise would almost certainly be heaped upon Bill Smith for bringing in that key piece that would bring the Twins up past the level of the Johan Santana teams which simply couldn’t escape the first two rounds of the playoffs.

How should we evaluate Smith’s part of this potential trade and situation, though? His job is to put the Minnesota Twins in the best position to win as many World Series as possible, while working under a certain amount of restraints. I don’t know enough about Hicks and Ramos to say for sure, but given their lofty rankings in prospect circles, there’s a good chance that they could be major contributors for the Twins in the coming seasons. We could potentially run simulations, based on how good Ramos and Hicks project to be, and see how many World Series victories we would expect from the Twins with them and instead how many we would expect if the Twins execute the trade. The attitudes of people like Wade and seemingly Gleeman suggest that the Twins would likely win more World Championships with the two prospects as opposed to obtaining Lee for the 2010 stretch run and playoffs.

Consider that hypothetical situation – a Twins franchise with Ramos and Hicks is likely to win more World Championships than the Twins with Cliff Lee.

If that is indeed the case, even if a Lee trade results in a World Series victory, the trade would be a poor decisions on Bill Smith’s part. It all comes back to the “processes over results” mantra of sabermetrics, and this would be the ultimate result. The trade is still a bad trade, process-wise, despite the fact that the ultimate goal of the franchise for 2010 is reached. There is no doubt in my mind, however, that this trade would be constantly listed among the best deadline deals ever, simply because, as above, flags fly forever.

The heartless mathematician and economist screams at me about the potential loss of utility from this trade. Apart from a mathematician and an economist, however, I’m also a human being, and perhaps more importantly, a baseball fan. I was along for the Brewers ride to the postseason in 2008, largely fueled by a rental of CC Sabathia, which cost the Brewers Matt LaPorta, Michael Brantley, and Rob Bryson. The Brewers were eliminated in the first round, and a top-half farm system is now consensus bottom ten. But I don’t care that the Brewers sacrificed a large amount of talent and likely some wins in the future – that playoff ride was a phenomenal emotional experience, especially given the fact that my hometown team had never won anything in my lifetime. Forget the revenue and other tangible benefits that the playoff appearance brought the team – it was fun. Every time I think back to the trade for Sabathia, I always decide, once again, that it was the right move, because I can’t imagine that 2008 season without the magical playoff run, and I certainly give a large part of the credit to Doug Melvin, whether objectively right or wrong, for pulling the trigger.

Wade’s reaction makes logical sense given his estimation of the talent levels of the three players involved in this deal – it appears that it would be a heist for Seattle, despite how supremely good Cliff Lee has been this season. Still, if we see the Twins raising the Commissioner’s Trophy in November and a new World Series Championship banner in Target Field, I’m not sure that his current attitude towards the trade and Bill Smith will remain.

Jacob Arrieta and Wade Davis are both aged 24, right-handed, and rookie starting pitchers cutting their teeth in the frenzied American League East. Neither is recording the kind of whiffs their stuff would seemingly demand – as David Golebiewski covered with regards to Davis just a few days ago – and they share something else in common: their inability to finish batters after getting ahead 0-2.

It seems odd to discuss that attribute of pitchers with an FIP over 5.00 apiece. After all, isn’t the problem that they simply don’t get ahead enough? Well, no. As it turns out, Davis and Arrieta both go 0-2 on 25% of their plate appearances; that figure places them within the top 20 of American League pitchers- more often than Jon Lester, James Shields, John Danks, and equal to Felix Hernandez – worthwhile company, to say the least.

Davis is actually just behind David Price for the best rate amongst Rays’ starting pitchers, while Arrieta leads the Orioles’ staff. League average is 23%, so both get to the optimal pitcher’s count at a steadier rate than a good number of their peers. The issue, though, is finishing. Golebiewski noted how Davis used his heater more often in two strike counts than league average, and while Arrieta doesn’t have that issue when it comes to non 0-2 counts, he does rely heavily on his fastball on 0-2 counts.

The results are Davis striking out batters after 0-2 counts less than 31% of the time while Arrieta is at a modest 35%. Compare that to some of the better pitchers in the American League, like Cliff Lee and Jered Weaver (45%) or David Price (44%) and the youngster’s strikeout rates look subpar. Major League average is at 42% while American League average is nearly identical.

Causation and correlation aren’t always bedmates and one of the byproducts of being a good pitcher is finishing batters after getting ahead- meaning it’s no surprise that bad pitchers struggle to finish while good pitchers excel at it. The issue just seems like a case where young pitchers need to make adjustments. That’s good news for these youngsters, although it could quickly turn sour if either fails to make those required adjustments in a reasonable frame of time.

Overview

The Phillies currently sit six games over .500 and three-and-a-half back of the Atlanta Braves. The New York Mets hold a two-game lead over the Phillies for the wild card position, although the Phillies are also behind the St. Louis Cardinals and Los Angeles Dodgers at this point. With Chase Utley and Placido Polanco both out for at least the next two weeks, and with Utley probably missing additional time after undergoing surgery, it might behoove the Phillies to look for at least one replacement infielder, as opposed to fielding Wilson Valdez and Greg Dobbs during a pennant chase.

Buy or Sell?

This is pretty clearly a buy situation, particularly on cheap-ish third base and second base options. That makes names like Kelly Johnson and Jose Lopez potential fits; although neither is quite Chase Utley.

The rotation features only two pitchers with xFIP under 4.5, with Joe Blanton being the trailer (4.96 xFIP). Given the money being paid to Blanton, though, it seems unlikely he’ll be moved to the bullpen. I won’t make the reference to a certain dominant AL starting pitcher, but you have to wonder how different this team would look right now with his presence.

Most Phillies fans would probably love to move Raul Ibanez’s contract, but again, that just seems unlikely. And unless there’s some blockbuster on the horizon, a Jayson Werth deal probably isn’t happening, no matter how quickly it would make the trade market so much more interesting.

On The Farm

Domonic Brown is the Phillies’ top prospect and perhaps the most untouchable player on the farm given Werth’s pending free agency and Ibanez’s pending trip to the glue factory. Phillippe Aumont, Juan Ramirez, and Tyson Gillies were acquired from Seattle in the off-season and are amongst the top 10 prospects. They have a dearth of middle infield prospects, which partially explains why their replacements for Utley and Polanco border on replacement level ballplayers.

Budget

The Phils’ payroll is already at an all-time high, just shy of $140 million. Nobody outside of the organization is quite sure what the roof on potential spending is, but it’s hard to imagine the Phillies rejecting a trade based purely on funds.

Episode Thirty-Eight
In which the guest gets all autobiographical.

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A Young Jeremy Brown
The Whole Open Letter Thing
On Work and Baseball

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Here’s the NL version. This morning’s AL version can be found here; the updated reverse engineered Elias rankings can be found at MLB Trade Rumors.

Ted Lilly, Chicago Cubs

Lilly will almost certainly be shopped by the Cubs as they will seek some financial freedom from the roughly $6 million remaining on Lilly’s contract. Although Lilly’s peripherals aren’t great, he has a 3.76 ERA, which could entice some suitors, and there is reason to believe that he can get his FIP closer to 4.00 than 4.50 by season’s end. The interesting question is whether or not the Cubs or a team that receives him in a trade would be willing to offer him arbitration

An arbitration offer can result in a one year salary no lower than 80% of the prior year’s salary – in this case, no lower than $9.6M, and there’s reason to believe that his arbitration salary would be equal to his $12M 2010 salary or higher. Lilly will turn 35 in January, and teams may be leery of that kind of financial commitment to an aging pitcher. If Lilly pitches well down the stretch, though, he can likely cash in on a weak market for SPs next season, and may turn down arbitration and bring his team some valuable draft picks.

Felipe Lopez, St. Louis Cardinals

Last season, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired Felipe Lopez from the Arizona Diamondbacks in a deadline deal as a result of the injury to Rickie Weeks. Lopez had easily his best MLB season between Arizona and Milwaukee, posting 3.9 WAR and a career high – by 30 points – .358 wOBA. The Brewers didn’t have a starting spot for Lopez with the return of Weeks, and they didn’t want to risk Lopez, a type B, accepting arbitration and receiving a contract for upwards of $5 million. Lopez almost certainly would have accepted, given the market for 2B – Orlando Hudson only got $5 million himself, and Lopez had to settle for $1 million from St. Louis.

Lopez’s wOBA has fallen to .338, but still above the .320 level that his career had settled upon prior to last year. He’s an average fielder at 2B and 3B, making him about a 2-2.5 WAR player over 600 PAs. With David Freese at 3B and Skip Schumaker at 2B, there probably aren’t 600 PAs available for Lopez, but there’s probably still enough to make an arbitration offer worth the risk for St. Louis if he remains Type A –

Some other players to watch include Jayson Werth, as Matt Klaasen looked at here, Adam Dunn, and Arthur Rhodes – the type A crop in the National League is thin this season.

Last week, a rumor circulated that the Philadelphia Phillies were exploring the trade market for right fielder Jayson Werth. I have no idea how much truth there is to this, and just to make things clear from the start, as long as the Phillies are in contention, I don’t think they should trade Werth. For a good take on the credibility of the rumor and the mess the Phillies have made for themselves in the outfield, see Rob Neyer’s blog post from last week. Hypothetically, though, how valuable would Werth be if the Phillies were to shop him?

Werth’s journey from Toronto to Los Angeles to Philadelphia makes for an interesting story, but I’m more interested in the present, in which Werth remains a somewhat under-appreciated star. Werth’s wOBA is over .380 for the fourth season in a row, and ZiPS rest-of-season projections projects a .384 wOBA (.276/.371/.500) over the rest of the season (CHONE’s July Update projects a very similar .273/.368/.491). In the 2010 run environment, that’s about a +30 hitter. Although Werth’s UZR numbers have gone down in 2009 and 2010, I still estimate him to be about a +10 right fielder over a full season. Taken together, +30 offense +10 fielding -7.5 position + 20 NL replacement level = about a 5 WAR player over a full season. Assuming he was traded now, with about half a season left, that’s 2.5 wins. Moreover, Werth is only being paid seven million dollars this season. Assuming four million dollars per marginal win, that’s about $6.5 million dollars in surplus value over the rest of the season. That could fetch a very good major league rental (depending on how much money does or doesn’t get thrown in by each team), or a solid (non-elite) prospect in a trade.

But wait, there’s more! Werth’s contract is up after the season, and he will almost certainly be a Type A free agent, meaning that if whichever team has him after the season offers him arbitration (which they should) and he turns it down (also likely) and signs with another team, the first team would get the signing team’s next first round draft pick plus supplemental pick. Victor Wang’s research on prospect and draft pick trade valuation (summarized by Sky Kalkman here) shows that the average value of Type A compensation is about $5.5 million. Whichever team has Werth at the end of the season (likely) gets that value as well, which nearly doubles Werth’s projected surplus value from the $6.5 million to $12 million. Prospects aside, this draft pick compensation boosts Werth’s value beyond his current performance and salary, and perhaps the Phillies could conduct a fair trade in which they add a player that helps their team even more than Werth over the remainder of the season, given that Werth’s value extends beyond his performance. This is an intriguing possibility… in principle.

Still, as I wrote at the beginning, barring an insanely favorable offer or an unforeseeable collapse that puts them out of contention, the Phillies should not go out of their way looking to trade Werth. For one thing, despite their current injury problems, Philadelphia is an old team built to win now, so unless they are willing to abandon that, they are not in a position to be looking to give up an outstanding player like Werth for prospects. More importantly, though hypothetically they might actually get a better “win now” player than Werth, in reality, it is hard to see it happening. The reason is obvious: only contending teams are looking to acquire a half-season rental like Werth, and although he has value beyond his projected performance/salary, in a fair trade, a contending team is not going to give up more current value for less current value plus a draft pick.

Jayson Werth is a very valuable player. For the Phillies, that value is best spent by keeping him around.