If It Counted: American League
Next week, the AL and NL will hook up for an exhibition game. MLB is still pushing the “it counts” theme since home field advantage in the World Series is on the line, but no one treats the game like it really matters; the best players come out halfway through the game, guys are used out of position, and the roster is assembled with goals that directly conflict with putting the best team on the field. So, no, it doesn’t count.
But what if it did? What would the roster look like if the American League and National League were to play one game that really mattered, and their singular goal was to win that day? That’s what we’re going to take a look at today.
Below is my take on the 21 guys that would comprise the AL Roster. We won’t bother filling out the #2-#5 starter spots in the rotation, since this is just a one game deal, and we’re not going to convert starters into relievers for a day. The rosters are put together with not just the goal of having the best players, but the ones who make the most sense from a line-up construction/match-up standpoint, as well as tactical advantages for late game maneuvering. If the AL had to win just one game, this is the team I think they would put on the field.
Carl Crawford, LF
Kevin Youkilis, 1B
Joe Mauer, C
Miguel Cabrera, DH
Josh Hamilton, RF
Evan Longoria, 3B
Robinson Cano, 2B
Derek Jeter, SS
Ichiro Suzuki, CF
Bench: Victor Martinez (C/1B), Justin Morneau (1B/PH), Ben Zobrist (UT), Brett Gardner (OF/PR), Elvis Andrus (SS/PR)
Cliff Lee, SP
Bullpen: Mariano Rivera (R), Matt Thornton (L), Neftali Feliz (R), Scott Downs (L), Rafael Soriano (R), David Hernandez (R, long guy)
The line-up is balanced, going from left/right from top to bottom, and it gets high on base guys in front of the guys who can pound the ball over the wall. Even Roy Halladay would have a tough time getting through that line-up too many times. Because of the high quality of hitters, you won’t do much pinch-hitting, which is why Morneau is the only “big bat” guy on the bench. You would probably have him pinch hit for Jeter against an RHP in a high leverage situation at some point in the game, which is why there are two guys on the bench who can play shortstop.
Gardner is on the team to steal a base, as he’s probably the best runner in the game right now. There are enough slow guys on the team that it’s tough to say who he would run for, which is why a guy like Zobrist is necessary, since you don’t know which position you would be subbing out when you need a late game stolen base. Having the guy who can play anywhere gives you a lot of flexibility. Martinez gets the nod over all the other catchers because he can also play first base, so you can pinch run for Youkilis after you’ve used Morneau as a pinch-hitter and still have a first baseman.
The pitching side is more straight forward. Lee is the best pitcher in the league right now, and should be able to give you six innings, even against a loaded NL line-up. Rivera is the obvious pick to close out the game, and then it’s just a mix of good RH and LH guys to get it to him. David Hernandez gets the call as a long reliever who can bring some heat if the game goes to extra innings and you need a guy to stay out there until it ends – his overall numbers aren’t great, but he’s been lights out since moving to the bullpen and the stuff is certainly there.
Could the NL put 21 guys on the field to match this squad? We’ll find out at 5 pm.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
The lineup looks reasonable, but I’d probably put another starting pitcher on the team instead of David Hernandez, in case the game goes long. I’ll go with Lester, as much as it pains me as a Yankees fan.
Wouldn’t you then have two LH pitchers as your starter and quasi-starter? Might think about Weaver or Verlander there too.
I hate seeing Ichiro bat last, but it must be to have a double lead off hitter in front of the middle of the order.
Good team, but flip these positions, Homey!
Josh Hamilton, RF
Ichiro Suzuki, CF
Why? Both have experience playing in either spot, but Ichiro is clearly the better defender. He covers more ground, and as such, you’d much rather have him in the outfield position that gets the most balls hit to it.
I disagree.
In 2,000 innings in center field, Hamilton’s career UZR is -13.
In 2,000 innings in center field, Ichiro’s career UZR is +7.
In 1,200 innings in the right and left field, Hamilton’s career UZR is +7.
In 10,000 innings in right field, Ichiro’s career UZR is +93.
Billy – do you have a reason or do you like just giving an opinion based on no fact or merit?
The only plus arm in that OF, however, is Crawford. Especially with Hamilton playing RF.
I need to fix that. the only plus arm in that OF is Ichiro. Especially with Hamilton playing RF.
99% of people put Ichiro in Center over Hamilton.
My opinion is Ichiro is all-world in RF and moving him to CF would be/was a mistake. I’ve watched every game Hamilton has played as a Ranger, and his best defensive position is CF, he’s at least league average out there. You would be playing 2 guys at their secondary position. That is my mistake.
CMC_Stags, sorry if that is just an opinon “without facts or merit”. lol
And regardless of defensive metrics, Hamilton’s arm is certainly “plus”.
Billy – Glad you’ve seen all of Hamilton’s starts. That being the case, you’ve seen Ichiro play defense for a large number of games (Hamilton has 42 games against the M’s). Ichiro is clearly a better defender at both CF and RF than Hamilton.
Career UZR/150 RF CF
Ichiro 13.1 7.0
Hamilton 6.2 -8.4
Over 150 games, having Ichiro in RF (13.1) and Hamilton in CF (-8.4) would be worth 4.7 runs. Having Ichiro in CF (7.0) and Hamilton in RF (6.2) would be worth 13.2 runs.
Also, a -8.4 UZR/150 is 8.4 runs worse than the average center fielder. So saying that Hamilton is “at least league average out there” is factually incorrect.
so have you watched every game of every other major league center fielder so you can compare them accurately and know that hamilton is in fact above average? or do you just kinda guess for everyone else?
Dave there is no way you can take those numbers for centerfield at face value. 2,000 innings of UZR is practically useless for projecting defense. That said Ichiro is definitely better defensively than Hamilton, the question is whether Ichiro’s superior arm in right is more important than his superior range in center.
I agree with seideberg. It seems like adding another starter would be a good idea. Lee might get rocked, or the game might go into extra innings. Having someone who can come in an throw 4+ quality innings is a very valuable asset. Lester or Weaver would both be fine.
I would make the bullpen all starters (with the possible exception of Rivera), based on my belief that an All-Star-level starting pitcher is very likely to be more effective, on a one inning at a time basis, than any reliever (they’re better pitchers, which is why they get to start)..
With Cliff Lee on the mound, seeing just as many grounders as fly balls, I think I might value Andrus’ glove enough to start him over Jeter. Close call either way, though.
I doubt it’s within shouting distance let alone close. In a one game period we’re talking about maybe 1 extra expected grounder to short.
I’d prefer the new walking Morneau over Youk, but I can get behind either choice. To be clear, I think Youk is the better player going forward (by a thin margin), but I’d still lean towards “rewarding” the guy with the better season to date, even if that has depended on a little BABIP luck.
There’s no way in hell Jeter should start.
Andrus would be a much better pick. Even Scutaro might be a better pick.
Really?
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=ss&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=n&type=6&season=2010&month=0
Looks kind of bunched to me.
The current class of AL SS is just weak. Very weak, and a far cry from Jeter, Nomar, Tejada, and ARod in their primes. You’ve got an aged Jeter, a glove but no bat Andrus, and then what? A journeyman like Scutaro, or decent but not great guys like Aybar or Asdrual Cabrera. Just sad.
Still no love for Rios?
Ichiro is the odd man out here I think…
… and Morneau should totally be starting over Youkilis.
Never expect David Cameron to be remotely objective when it comes to Ichiro. It’s not in his repetoire.
And why not carry an elite starter as the long man rather than Hernandez?
Because they need an Oriole, and nobody wants to put Markakis into an ASG for some reason.
So I assume the NL gets a DH too?
And the overall crop of OF just seems a bit weak, for both sides. Not that they aren’t good players, but there doesn’t appear to be any elite in their prime types like say a Juniro Griffey 15 years ago, Ichiro 5 years ago, a steroid fuelder Bonds and Sosa 10 years ago, etc. I was thinking there’s got to be some better options, but not really.
An NL guess
R Ramirez SS
L Utley 2B
R Pujols 1B
R Braun DH or LF
L Ethier RF
R Upton CF
R Wright 3B
L McCann C
R Soriano LF or DH
The OF was really hard to pick with Holliday, McCutcheon, and others out there. I’d guess a bench would include perhaps Molina at C, with Howard, AGon, or Fielder as the 1B/PH, Martin Prado as a utility, not sure who backs up SS (Tulo or Reyes, and couldn’t one of them conceivably be a good option for LF?), or if you go with say Zimmerman behind Wright, or maybe Chipper Jones for his ability to pinch hit from both sides of the plate, then Carlos Gonzalez, McCutcheon, or Holliday.
Pitching, Halladay obviously starts, (although leaving off Jimenez or Johnson is tough), with Wainwright as the long man (he used to close), and Broxton, Wagner, and Marmol at the back end.
Why can’t anyone spell McCutchen correctly? Why are people always adding the unnecessary “O”?
It’s just weird because I keep seeing consistently making that same mistake.
Because that’s how it’s usually spelled.
Furcal should be the bench SS. Can run, get on base, has pop and can probably play any position given his arm strength.
Votto should be the 1B or DH, how does he continue to be left off these lists :p
I think the NL would definitley need Omar Infante on the team. Just a scrappy utility player every team needs.
Pujols has earned 1B. But I could buy Votto as DH over Soriano/Braun and hitting 4th. That probably would be better, and I should have included him with Gonzalez, Howard, and Fielder.
My best guess at the starting lineup
R Ramirez SS
L Utley 2B
R Pujols 1B
L Votto DH
R Wright 3B
L Ethier RF
R Braun LF
L McCann C
R Werth CF
Great line-up, but I have to agree with Morneau over Youkilis assuming Halladay starts for the NL. Halladay is very good versus lefties, but otherworldly versus righties (a full 0.5 FIP difference over his career)… If you go with Lincecum the splits are also significant (if not as)… if Josh Johnson I’m not sure which way I’d go…
And with Morneau in, I would flip him and Mauer in the lineup.
“Great line-up, but I have to agree with Morneau over Youkilis assuming Halladay starts for the NL. ”
Youkilis has very little career split between Lefties and Righties. According to BaseballReference, he also kills ground ball pitchers.
I agree there should be a second starter.
Also, as much as I hate to say it I think Cano deserves to be higher in the lineup. Mauer batting 3rd this year? Bleh..
Great article. I would be a lot more excited about this All-Star Game than the real one. I love the Brett Gardner appreciation too. Kinda feel bad for Morneau getting benched with what he’s done this year, but I’d rather have Youkilis too.
No love for Jose Valverde? His stats are very similar to Rivera’s and up until his last game they were even better.
To those who want another starter (as a reliever) in there, read the above:
“We won’t bother filling out the #2-#5 starter spots in the rotation, since this is just a one game deal, and we’re not going to convert starters into relievers for a day. “
I think the problem people have with that statement is that David Hernandez was a starter converted to a reliever because he wasn’t good enough as a starter. The long reliever is just that, the 6th best starter on his team’s roster. He then also says that Hernandez is there in case you need a reliever capable of multiple innings, which is what starters do. Just seems like, other than pitching the 1st inning, the long reliever role on a 1-game team is very similar to the starting pitchers role, and no converting a starter to a 1-inning, bring-the-heat reliever would be required. What if Cliff Lee gets hurt in the top of the first? You mean you would honestly rather have David Hernandez go the next five? Or Jon Lester/Weaver/Liriano?
No disagreement there.
I like Morneau starting at 1B also given his play this year and the fact that Youkilis has a little more versatility off the bench (little better runner than Morneau, can play 3B as well).
I like that you’re preserving a semblance of realistic lineup by adding a long reliever, but in this case, I’d prefer Andy Sonnanstine over Hernandez despite not having as much stuff.
I’d go with ARod over Morneau. There are plenty of guys that can play 1B, but having the extra guy that could handle 3B would help. And even though ARod is a righty batter, he’d still make sense as the pinch-hitter for Jeter against any pitcher. And he might be used to pinch-hit for Cano as well.
And yeah, I think it’s perfectly fine to take an elite starter like King Felix over Hernandez as your long reliever. I think when it comes to do-or-die situations, a manager would be more likely to go to an ace pitcher as their long reliever than the actual long reliever. For example, the Yankees brought in Mussina to relieve Clemens in Game 7 of the 2003 ALCS, rather than using the mediocre guy in the bull[pen whose role was that of long reliever.
But Youk, Zobrist, and Cabrera have all played 3B as well. It’s not like Longoria is your only option.
And all of them are arguably better than Arod, either offensively or defensively.
Youk is better in both phases of the game.
Arod isn’t OPSing 1.000 while playing good SS anymore. He’s an .900 guy who plays -8run/150 defense at 3B.
What is the need for Victor Martinez, if you have Mauer. I would rather have a pure defensive catcher behind the plate in the 9th like a Molina or Suzuki.
Even if the game counted, there should still be some sort of limit to the use of the starter, if for no other reason than professional courtesy. As the manager it wouldn’t exactly be fair to burn through say a division rival’s ace. For example, if Giardi used… say Beckett for 140 pitches. It would just hurt the Red Sox down the line, while keeping his own pitchers on reserve. There’s no incentive for him to not do that other than keeping the game in reach.
So I would argue that using starters as relievers for the all star game is a valid use for them. It could be their throw day anyway so it wouldn’t be a big deal for them to throw 20-40 pitches (I don’t actually know how many they throw on throw days). So I would argue that filling out SP 2-5 is valid and should be required rather than letting the starter go 6+ innings.
Good roster though, I do like the starters… Even though I’d prefer Ichiro higher in the order, it still makes a lot of sense.
If the game actually counted, and the manager managed the game like it counted, I doubt he’d “burn through” his starter like that. Most pitchers these days wouldn’t be very effective with that many pitches, especially against an All-Star line-up. If Lester (assuming this is a Boston pitcher, since Beckett isn’t even close to the ASG this year) got up over 100 pitches and started giving up a bunch of hits, keeping him in just to run up his pitch count would be both self-destructive and conspicuously malicious.
And anyway, I think it’s pretty unlikely that a manager would pull a stunt like that. It certainly wouldn’t be rivalry-based, since players and managers are much, much less invested in those. A (cruel) Yankee fan might want to run Lester’s pitch count so high it hurts his future performance, but Girardi wouldn’t. I guess there’s marginally more motivation to do it in a tight division race, but still. That’s just such a malicious, ruthless stunt that I have a hard time thinking it all that likely.
Expecting a full start from the ASG starter is a concern, though. For the most part, the guys who would start would be fully capable of adding 6-7 innings to their yearly load, but fitting the ASG into their starting schedule would add a small kink in roster construction. And front offices/managers would inevitably make an even bigger deal out of it. So it would be a concern, at least to some degree.
True, that was an out there scenario, and you’re right I should’ve said Lester not Beckett. First scenario that could come to mind. 140 pitches is pretty extreme and highly unlikely in today’s environment.
BUT, it wouldn’t be that far fetched to have a manager have the starter run 90-110 pitches. That would be a standard start, and depending when their last start was, it could be on short rest. But even if it is on standard rest, and the ASG mattered, would you let them pitch like a standard start? That’s the point though, it would effectively eliminate a start from their year. Having SPs change their role for the ASG is important because it balances all of the SPs use.
Granted if Halladay or CC was throwing a PG through 3/4, I’d let him keep going…but again that would probably be on short rest.
Rex Manning sucks.
Pinch hit for Jeter? I doubt that would ever actually happen, even though Morneau is the better offensive player. Also, Cabrera should be on this team ahead of Morneau anyway.
Why should Cabrera be on this team instead of Morneau?
Because if I read it correctly, Dave was assembling this team by best players, not best half-seasons…
I’d rather have Rios than Gardner. Close to Gardner in running, more pop in case you wanted him as a hitter, and the ideal defensive replacement for Hamilton (shifting Ichiro to right if Rios came in defensively) — Rios is a much better center fielder than Gardner.
If we’re not weighting the current season, why would you choose Cano over Pedroia? Pedroia’s clearly outperformed him since he came into the league. Is it just a lefty/righty thing?
I’m confused as to why Derek Jeter is here instead of Elvis Andrus. Andrus has a much higher OBP, and also has more speed than Jeter. His defense is much better too. Also confused as to why Youkilis over Morneau at first base. If it’s a LHP, Youkilis is a better option. But if it’s a RHP, you know, just like Roy Halladay, Morneau blows Youkilis out of the water. Defensively he’s better than Youkilis too. Youkilis makes sense off the bench, because of his versatility and ability to hit left handed pitching, but Morneau should be the starter at first base.
Morneau “better defensively?” I think that really “really close and probably interchangeable” is more accurate…
Morneau’s UZR this year is 8.0 for a 16.3 UZR/150. Kevin Youkilis’ UZR this year is 1.1 for a 2.5 UZR/150. Youkilis is definitely better than Miguel Cabrera and Prince Fielder over there, but Morneau has the 8th best UZR of any qualified player in the league, and is one of the elite defensive first basemen.
Yes, over half a season. And we know how fickle UZR can be over such a short time. Over the past three seasons, they’re almost identical.