“If this was Strasmas, we got coal in our stockings.”

My friends just got married a month ago, moved into their new home together a week ago, and so they did what any newlywed couple who met in college in Atlanta would do: they checked to see when Stephen Strasburg would make his next start against the Braves — Tuesday, July 27, the calendar said — and then they drove four hours to Washington to watch. I rushed home from work to meet them and take the stadium-bound Metro, which was packed to the gills with red-shirted and red-capped Nats fans, nearly all of them wearing some variation on Strasburg #37.

We joined the crimson sea of fans pouring into the stadium, and took our seats at 7:04, just in time to see the pitcher warming up. And just in time to notice that the cleanshaven Latino on the mound did not bear much resemblance to the 6’4″, goateed Strasburg. Realization dawned on us all at the same time. There would be no Strasmas this week. He’d felt sore during his warmup pitches just a few minutes before we arrived, and the team quietly yanked him. Nationals Park, which was filled by 40,043 Strasburg-enrapt fans that night, echoed with boos of confusion and outrage.

The fill-in was Miguel Batista, a wry 39-year old, who understood the fans’ dismay: “Imagine if you go there to see Miss Universe and you end up having Miss Iowa, you might get those kind of boos. But it’s OK,” he told the AP. “Miss Iowa” is putting it mildly: he hadn’t started a game in two years, and has a career record of 96-110 and an ERA of 4.53, in 16 seasons for eight different organizations. (The real Miss Iowa took the analogy in stride: “It was kind of a diss at first. But I think that I’ll handle that.”)

Batista, somehow, then he led the last-place Nationals to victory over the first-place Braves. The sea of red quickly came over to his side as he quieted the Braves for five innings, and my Braves fan friends went from nonplussed to depressed. It’s somehow more thrilling to watch a phenom blow your team away with 100-mile an hour fastballs than it is to watch a geezer lull them to sleep with moxie and guile. “If this was Strasmas, we got coal in our stockings,” my friend’s wife told him. Nats fans must have felt the same way today, when they learned he was making his first trip to the DL. Still, on Tuesday night, the fireworks roared at the end of the game, and Nats fans discovered a new kind of Strasmas: the one where they win on a day that Strasburg didn’t even pitch.

Reports are that the deal is done, and the Phillies have acquired Roy Oswalt. Regardless of why it was necessary, this looks like a pretty big win for Philadelphia.

In exchange for J.A. Happ, Anthony Gose, and Jonathan Villan, the Phillies get Oswalt and a reported $11 million to offset a large part of the money he’s still owed. As a result, it looks like Philly will get Oswalt through 2011 for about $12.5 million total. Even with his back problems, he’s worth quite a bit more than that.

Oswalt isn’t the workhorse ace that he used to be, but the Phillies already have one of those. On a inning by inning basis, he’s still one of the better pitchers in baseball. After years of decline, he’s actually posting his highest strikeout rate since his rookie year. He won’t throw 220 innings a year anymore, but when he’s on the mound, he’ll get hitters out with regularity.

I’d estimate that Oswalt should give the Phillies about +5 wins of value over the next year and a half. Given their status as a playoff contender on the bubble, the marginal value of a win to their franchise is higher than the league average as a whole. So, while they’re paying about $2 million per win for Oswalt, they’ll be getting something closer to $5 or $6 million per win in on field value, thanks to their increased playoff odds.

Overall, Oswalt should add $10 to $15 million in value above and beyond what the Phillies will pay him. For that value, they surrendered Happ and the two minor leaguers. I’ll let Bryan Smith tackle the prospects with more depth, but suffice it to say that no one thinks they mortgaged their future here. Happ is a back-end starter, and while he has some value as a league minimum guy for the next couple of years, he can be replaced.

Oswalt represents a significant upgrade to their rotation, and gives the Phillies a legitimate chance of running down the Braves for the NL East title. Because they were able to get Houston to cover so much of his salary, he’ll also reinforce their ability to contend again next year. That’s a lot of improvement for not much surrendered from Philly’s perspective.

Setting aside all the context that made the Phillies need Oswalt in the first place, this has to be seen as a good move for their franchise. They got a quality pitcher at a below market price without putting the long term future of the franchise in danger. Kudus to Ruben Amaro for this deal.

I’d imagine most of us have probably lived on a shoestring budget at one point in our lives, buying what we can afford rather than what we’d actually like to have. Top Ramen has built an empire by capitalizing on people in that situation. So, while the Dodgers acquisition of Scott Podsednik may not be the sexiest move ever, it’s what they can afford. And, for what it cost them, it’s a deal worth making.

Podsednik is more of a role player than an everyday guy, but he’s good enough to be a useful part timer on a team that needs one. And, more importantly, he gives the Dodgers a reason to stop using Garret Anderson.

It’s hard to overstate how bad Anderson has been this year. He’s been worth -13.8 runs in just 112 plate appearances, a historically awful offensive performance. He’s just completely finished as a major leaguer, but because he has the veteran label, Torre has continued to use him.

When Manny Ramirez returns, Podsednik will be able to fill the role that Anderson has been taking up, and he’s good enough to give them a decent fill-in while Manny’s on the shelf. He’s no kind of star, but his combination of speed and contact skills make him a decent enough hitter, and he’d be a pretty nifty pinch-runner if the team makes it to the playoffs.

I’m sure the Dodgers would have preferred to be in on Dan Haren, Cliff Lee, or Roy Oswalt, but the divorce kept them from shopping in the high rent district. Given the minimal financial cost and what looks to be a low price in terms of prospects, this is a pretty decent job of bargain shopping. The Dodgers get something that makes them better, even if only incrementally, without paying a high price.

Baseball Info Solutions has just released a more comprehensive FAQ on their fielding system, which we list on FanGraphs as DRS (and the various components that make up DRS).

It goes into details about how they make adjustments for various positions, ball hogging, home runs saved, the Green Monster, player positioning, etc….

Click to read the FAQ

If we are to assume the Roy Oswalt rumors to be true, yesterday brought us three trades, all of which have already been written up here at FanGraphs: Jhonny Peralta to the Tigers, Scott Podsednik to the Dodgers, and now, Oswalt possibly to the Phillies. When trades with significant prospects are dealt, I write up the players as soon as they happen. That I waited until this morning to begin my analysis on Giovanni Soto, Lucas May, Elisaul Pimentel and Vance Worley tells you a lot about where those players grade out. We’ll finish the Oswalt trade analysis when all pieces of the trade have been disclosed, but for now, we’ll start with what we have this morning:

The Astros reportedly acquire Vance Worley.

It’s been a big couple weeks for Vance Worley. On July 9, the 22-year-old threw his first career complete game shutout in Double-A, striking out 7 and inducing 14 groundball outs against Harrisburg. His next outing came nine days later, and Worley responded with eight more shutout innings, his fourth scoreless outing in seven starts. Repeating the level after a lackluster 2009, the Phillies rewarded Worley with a promotion to fill a hole in their Major League bullpen.

Worley’s unceremonious debut came last Saturday in the ninth inning of a 10-2 win over the Rockies, inducing Ian Stewart to hit a flyball to center before striking out Chris Iannetta and Brad Hawpe. Worley threw 17 fastballs, averaging at 92.9 mph, though Texas Leaguers shows that he did cut and sink his fastball at different times. Worley also mixed in two solid sliders and one show-me curveball. The next day, Worley was sent to Triple-A, where he made his debut on Tuesday. Pitching against the Durham Bulls, Worley threw six more shutout innings, striking out seven with a 10-1 GO/AO ratio. If Jon Heyman is to be believed, Worley’s career with the Phillies will end there, with 24 scoreless innings spread over three levels.

So, what are the Astros getting in the former third-round pick? In college at Long Beach State, Worley was an underachiever, finishing his career with a 3.98 ERA, and worse, a 5.66 K/9. To quote Baseball America’s draft scouting report that year: “Command is the primary concern with Worley, not in terms of walks but in quality of pitches and efficiency.” But scouts still liked the potential, an innings-eater body with a fastball at 91-94 mph. It transferred to some big results in his debut summer, as Worley dominated the South Atlantic League over 11 starts.

The Phillies were more aggressive with Worley the next season, skipping High-A and sending him to the Double-A Eastern League. He struggled there, posting a 5.34 ERA (versus a 4.39 FIP), with a highish BABIP (.305) and a very low LOB% (59.5%). There was certainly more buzz about Worley perhaps being a better fit in the bullpen, especially with the addition and development of a slider to his arsenal. But before relegating Worley to that fate, the Phillies gave him another try at Double-A this year, and by most accounts, it has gone well. Worley isn’t going to strike a lot of people out, but he pounds the strike out, and has the potential to post above-average groundball and home run rates. However, he’s been inconsistent in that regard.

Worley is a close-to-the-Majors pitcher that should either be a back-end rotation guy, or someone who I still believe could thrive in relief. The Astros will have a big decision on their hands during Spring Training next year, but either way, they have a solid pitcher who has never been better than he has in the last three weeks.

The Royals acquire Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel.

Certainly the more interesting prospect here is Pimentel, a recently-turned 22-year-old Dominican pitcher that has had success this season in the Midwest League: 3.49 ERA, 7.1 H/9, 9.7 K/9. This is Pimentel’s third-year stateside — after success in the Gulf Coast League in 2008, he struggled a bit last year in the Pioneer League, mostly due to a .361 BABIP allowed. At that level, at that altitude, you have to blame Pimentel’s environment, and not the pitcher himself.

That has stabilized this year, and from May 22 to June 20, Pimentel was the best pitcher in the Midwest League: 1 earned run in 35 innings. He’s struggled a bit since then, with five of his six homers allowed this season coming in the last month. He’s been stingy with the longball previously in his career, however. Pimentel is a ways away from the Majors, and his stuff isn’t great (Baseball America has him 88-92 mph with the fastball), but anytime you can acquire someone that has shown the ability to strike people out, command the strike zone, and keep the ball in the stadium — in exchance for Scott Podsednik — you have to do it.

May is less interesting, though as a catcher close to the Majors, perhaps he shouldn’t be. May was drafted all the way back in 2003 as a high school shortstop. I believe, and look for readers to correct me, that May will be a minor league free agent this season unless he is added to the Royals 40-man roster. Like the Dodgers often do, May was converted to a catcher between the 2006-and-2007 seasons. His athleticism and arm strength are both plus, but it hasn’t translated to solid catching skills.

As a hitter, it’s hard to separate May from the environments he’s benefitted from, both when he showed power at Inland Empire in 2007, and his .347/.392/.603 batting line this season in Las Vegas. We know he doesn’t bode well in either the walk or strikeout columns. He’s going to hit lefties some, and probably could make for a decent back-up catcher. Again, given what the Royals gave up, this has to be considered a win.

The Indians acquire Giovanni Soto.

I know I wasn’t the only Cubs fan that did a double-take when this trade hit the “wire” yesterday — Hendry has us believing anything, these days. Instead, when the dust settled, it was merely former 21st round draft pick Giovanni, a lefty from Puerto Rico that has had a lot of success in his 29-appearance professional career. Soto is a beanpole at 6-foot-3 but just 155 pounds, so the Indians hope is that there’s some projection to be salvaged. We already know he is a lefty that gets groundballs (1.96 GO/AO), so it’s not a terrible starter kit. And, as I wrote this offseason, the Indians do a good job when picking prospects to acquire.

Scouring the WAR leader board for major league second basemen reveals a surprising name directly behind Robinson Cano. Milwaukee’s Rickie Weeks, a perennial breakout pick whose career has been sidetracked by injury, ranks as the second-most valuable player at the keystone spot this season. Granted, Chase Utley and Dustin Pedroia would likely place higher if not for injuries of their own. But to his credit, Weeks has already hit the four win mark before the calendar turns to August.

The second overall pick in the 2003 draft, Weeks walloped minor league pitching to the tune of a .289/.404/.493 line. He worked the count, packed a punch and showed lightning-quick wrists with a bat waggle reminiscent of Gary Sheffield. With that profile, Baseball America ranked Weeks as a top-10 prospect prior to the 2004 and 2005 seasons. “Weeks,” Baseball America gushed back in ’04, “has surprising pop for his size, as well as tremendous speed and quickness on the base paths, a combination that has many scouts comparing him to a young Joe Morgan.”

Comparing any young second baseman to Morgan, a guy with 108 career WAR and a 146 wRC+, is totally unfair. Still, Weeks was supposed to emerge as an up-the-middle force for the Brewers in short order. To say that the Southern University product had been a disappointment prior to 2010 wouldn’t be totally fair, but he never had that monster season that scouts envisioned.

Weeks was a league-average hitter (100 wRC+) in 2005, but rated poorly in the field and had just 0.3 WAR in 96 games played. The next year, he had a 108 wRC+, but again cost the club plenty of runs in the field and had 0.9 WAR in 95 games. Weeks’ season ended in late July, as he underwent surgery to repair a torn tendon in his right wrist. 2007 looked like a nice step forward — despite a DL stint for right wrist tendinitis and a brief, punitive demotion to Triple-A Nashville, he put up a 124 wRC+ and 3.1 WAR in 118 games, with less damage being done with the glove. Instead, his 2008 season was merely decent — a 105 wRC+ and 2.1 WAR in 129 games.

Last year, Weeks got off to a superb start. In 162 plate appearances, he had a 126 wRC+ on the power of a .245 ISO. Through just 37 games, Weeks racked up 1.4 WAR. And then, another injury — his season came to a halt in mid-May as he had a procedure to repair a torn tendon sheath in his left wrist.

So far in 2010, though, Weeks has remained in the lineup and has been at his best. In 487 PA, he’s batting .276/.376/.492, with a 140 wRC+. The 27-year-old holds a .216 ISO and has popped 22 home runs. With those quick, powerful wrists, Weeks’ homers have traveled faster and farther than most other batters. According to Hit Tracker Online, the average speed off the bat on Weeks’ big flies is 106.1 MPH, compared to the 103.3 MPH major league average. The “standard distance” on his dingers is 406.2 feet, while the MLB average is 393.5 feet. Standard distance, per Hit Tracker Online, “factors out the influence of wind, temperature and altitude, and is thus the best way of comparing home runs hit under a variety of different conditions.”

Weeks may regress somewhat at the plate — his rest-of-season ZiPS projection calls for a .364 wOBA, while his current mark is .381 — and he’s never going to be confused with a Gold Glover in the field (career -8.2 UZR/150). But a healthy Weeks has been a bright spot during an otherwise bleak season for the Brew Crew.

Roy Halladay pitches in an inexorable manner. Hell bent to record as many outs in as few pitches as mathematically possible. The possibility of Halladay topping 250 innings for the second time in his career is becoming a distinct reality in a rapid manner. After last night’s complete game – marking Halladay’s eighth on the season (his career high is nine) – the Doc is at 171 innings through 22 games started with a 2.21 ERA and a FIP around 2.80.

After going through Halladay’s first 22 starts in each of the past four seasons (as well as the 2003 season in which he topped 250 innings) I found that Halladay is actually outpitching himself. No, really. His 171 innings represents a six inning increase over his previous high through 22 starts which came last season. That 2.21 ERA is a half run per nine innings superior to his previous best (again, last season. Add that his FIP is still better than 2008, if only by about a tenth of a run and, well, Philadelphia is getting everything they could have hoped for and even more.

When Halladay is on the mound opposing teams cross the plate less often than a starving atheist; in 16 of his 22 starts Halladay has allowed two or fewer runs. Somehow, the Phillies are only 13-9 in his starts. That is almost a 60% win rate and certainly more enjoyable and respectable than the 17-16 record posted by the Royals in Zack Greinke starts last season. Still, it seems that the Phillies should be winning more often because Halladay isn’t just ERA padding with five-to-six inning outings, but consistently going deep and locking the other team down.

Winning only 60% instead of 65% of Halladay’s starts won’t cost the Phillies a playoff spot or anything – they’re still very much in the East race as well as the Wild Card race despite injuries galore – but it sure did damper any talk about 30 wins. With only 10-12 starts remaining, he may not even reach 20.

According to a report out of Houston, the Astros and Phillies have agreed on a deal that will send Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia, pending his approval. Details of the deal haven’t been released yet, and we don’t know if Oswalt will accept it anyway, but with a trade potentially looming, I figured I’d put some somewhat scattered thoughts to the online version of paper.

Writing about any move the Phillies make is hard. On the one hand, it is impossible to escape the overarching truth that anything they do now will be less effective than simply keeping Cliff Lee would have been last winter. That trade was inexplicable from the beginning, and has not looked any better for the Phillies since it was made. Now, four months into the 2010 season, making a move for Oswalt to upgrade the rotation is a tacit admission that they would have been better off keeping Lee.

And yet, we preach the value of sunk costs and not letting bad decisions of the past force you into more bad decisions in the future, so by all rights, we have to talk about anything the Phillies do under the umbrella of the fact that the Lee trade can’t be undone. It’s in the past, and getting the game’s premier lefty back isn’t an option. The choice faced by Ruben Amaro here is Oswalt or not Oswalt, not Oswalt or Lee. We should examine any trade the Phillies make in isolation from the deals that they made last winter.

And yet, we can’t simply look at an Oswalt acquisition on its own, because most accounts suggest that the team will have to move Jayson Werth in order to be able to afford Oswalt’s salary. It’s not a straight forward transaction, where the Phillies are giving up some future value to make the current team better. Depending on what they end up doing with Werth, they might actually make their 2010 team worse and their 2011 team better – not exactly the kind of deal you normally see from a team that is in the thick of a pennant race.

Some will try to paint this as a simple Roy Oswalt/Domonic Brown versus J.A. Happ/Jayson Werth battle of pairs, but even that breaks down, because the Phillies don’t have to trade Werth to get Brown into the line-up. With Shane Victorino on the DL, Brown is already in the big leagues, and there’s no reason that they couldn’t play him over Raul Ibanez when Victorino returns.

Trying to sort out this jumbled mess will not be easy. Oswalt would make the Phillies better. Losing Werth would make them worse. If they can make a good deal for Werth, who will leave this winter, perhaps it’s a deal worth making. Of course, Werth wouldn’t have to be leaving this winter if their moves of the past had left them with more flexibility in the present. But, again, what’s done is done, however it’s still hard to overcome the context of why this deal needs to be made in the first place, and what kind of deal it may lead to tomorrow.

There will be no easy way to analyze a Roy Oswalt to Philadelphia trade. If this deal happens, it will not lend itself to sound byte analysis, and no one will be able to sum up what is going on in 50 words. It’s complicated, perhaps more so than any recent trade. In the end, it may end up as just a part of one of the most interesting, confusing, and talked about series of acquisitions and departures in baseball history.

In a move that will shake up the NL West, nay, the entire National League as we know it, the Kansas City Royals have reportedly traded outfielder Scott Podsednik to the Los Angeles Dodgers for minor leaguers Lucas May and Elisaul Pimentel. The Dodgers will reportedly pick up the $650,000 dollars still owed to Podsednik, whose initial signing by the Royals during the off-season inspired some jackass on the internet to hypothesize a ‘Contest‘ between Dayton Moore and Omar Minaya to match foolish move for foolish move.

It must be admitted that Podsednik has played better than expected, accumulating 1.2 WAR in 94 games for the Royals, although the playing time (replacement) element is inflated due to the Royals hitting Podsednik first for most of the season (14.3 replacement runs versus 11.3 total runs above replacement means he was still a below-average player). Sure, his defense in left field was average at best according to UZR (-1.5), DRS (-12!), and to anyone who watched his …circuitous… routes (one of the most frustrating parts of Rick Ankiel being out for so long only to have Pods get traded right as Ankiel returned was that we missed the inevitable collision). Over the rest of the season, playing full-time, one would expect Podsednik to be worth roughly a half-win above replacement level, although how much playing time he gets will be contingent on when Manny Ramirez and Reed Johnson return from their respective injuries. Assuming full-time play, a half win is probably worth about $2 million dollars. Minus the $650,000 owed to Podsednik, the surplus is roughly the market value of a C prospect.

I’ll defer to others regarding the prospects that the Dodgers are sending to Kansas City. I’ve read both May and Pimental described as “fringe,” although John Sickels called May (a catcher with a decent bat but defensive issues) a “C” prospect during the past off-season, which would make this potentially a minor win for the Royals, although given the Dodgers’ situation (a contender with injuries to multiple outfielders) either way it seems to be a fair trade for both sides.

While Podsednik has played better than should have been expected for the Royals and thus justified his low cost in a vacuum, it was still not a smart signing for the Royals, given that even with Podsednik’s not-horrible play he’s still a below-average outfielder in his mid-thirties who wouldn’t exactly have taken the Royals to a new level. Moreover, one also has to take into account the opportunity cost the Royals gave up “showcasing” Podsednik while Mitch Maier sat on the bench and newly-minted outfielder Alex Gordon rotted in AAA. But that’s all water under the bridge. Although it is unlikely that Mays or Pimental will amount to much, it is still a decent return to get due to a fortuitous confluence of a (typical) BABIP-fueled July by Podsednik and the Dodgers’ outfield problems (Juan Pierre apparently isn’t available, no doubt much to Ned Colletti’s chagrin). It doesn’t make up for, well, you know… but it would be churlish to deny that this was nice work by Dayton Moore.

I’m intrigued, Dayton. For your next tricks, I suggest a) convincing another team that Rick Ankiel is worth something (even if only taking on his salary); and b) resisting going after the Big Prize.

Do you know who started last night at second base for the Detroit Tigers? How about third? Shortstop? The answers to those questions (in order) are: Will Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, and Ramon Santiago. The answer to one of those questions starting soon will be Jhonny Peralta as the Tigers have acquired him from the Cleveland Indians for lefty pitcher Giovanni Soto.

Peralta is due less than $2 million the rest of the season and has a $7 million club option for next season with a quarter of a million dollar buyout. Cleveland moved the 28 year old to third base in 2009 and used him there exclusively this season. He will ostensibly remain there for a lack of options, such as returning to shortstop; if the proof is in the pudding then Peralta has devoured any evidence that he can still handle the six-hole.

The bigger concern for Detroit will be how his bat plays. Between 2005 and 2008, Peralta recorded one season of below average offensive production. He has yet to top a .310 wOBA in the season and a half since. The most glaring concern with Peralta’s offensive game is his increased reliance upon flyballs. You know how this goes by now, but a refresher on the rule of thumb is that more flyballs lead to more home runs while also leading to a lower BABIP. The opposite is true for the formerly groundball heavy Peralta.

ZiPS projects Peralta to post a .323 wOBA from here on out. That projection may seem optimistic but should prove to be an improvement over Scott Sizemore or Don Kelly. Or at least an option with a presumed lower standard deviation between ceiling and floor. Nobody will confuse risk minimization as a sexy science anytime soon; sometimes it’s just a necessary for teams hoping to stay in the race.

The most humorous aspect of this deal is how Detroit continued talking down the idea of a short-term rental only to turn around and (presumably) grab a short-term rental. It is hard to see them paying Peralta $7 million next season unless he really knocks their socks off.