In May, the Braves surged into first place. Troy Glaus was a huge part of that. In April, the team had scored just 85 runs on the way to a 9-14 record, a major disappointment given preseason expectations. Glaus, a gamble signing, looked cooked, hitting just .194 and producing a .282 wOBA. But in May he found his groove, producing a .408 wOBA that helped the Braves score 163 runs. The gamble looked like a clear win. A .375 wOBA in June helped reinforce that notion.

Towards the end of June, Glaus started to slump a bit, going 4 for his last 38 in the month, including 0 for his final 12. The stumble has turned into a prolonged slump. Since June 18, he’s hitting just .175/.301/.279 in 183 PA. He has battled through a few nagging injuries during that time, including his left knee and left wrist. Manager Bobby Cox gave him a break in early August, but if that has helped the results haven’t shown it yet. Since his return to the lineup on August 6, he’s just 8-for-35 with one walk and three extra base hits.

What can the Braves do to keep Glaus healthy and productive? The most obvious answer would be to play him less often, something that Peter Hjort of Capitol Avenue Club advocates:

The organization has to do something about Troy Glaus, he’s not fit to play at the moment.  Disable him if you think he has something left this season, release him if not.  Call up Freddie Freeman if you want, or call up Barbaro Canizares and platoon him with Eric Hinske (the option I prefer).  Either way, you’re going to be getting a lot more from 1B than you would by continuing to play Glaus.

Freeman, the team’s No. 2 prospect before the season, is hitting .311/.371/.516 in the International League as a 20-year-old. He hits left-handed, so the Braves could set up a platoon with him and Glaus. The same can be done with Hinske, though his numbers against righties have dropped a bit since his early season success. Both platoons sound like a better situation than bringing up 30-year-old Canizares, though he his hitting quite well during his third full season in AAA, a .885 overall OPS and a .963 OPS against left-handed pitching. They might catch lightning in a bottle with him, but a Glaus platoon with either Hinske or Freeman sounds like a better bet.

The Braves could also scour the waiver wire for a first baseman. According to MLBTR’s players who cleared waivers list, Lyle Overbay is the only attractive fit. His season line of .249/.330/.420 doesn’t look too pretty, but he’s hitting .251/.344/.431 against righties and .280/.363/.517 since July 4. He does have a no trade clause, but the desire to play for a contender for the first time in his career could become motivation to waive it.

It has become clear that the Braves need to shore up their weakness at first base. With Chipper Jones done for the season the Braves need all the offensive reinforcements they can get. Indications point to Glaus wearing down, so a platoon situation could benefit him. Whether that’s with a rookie like Freeman or an import like Overbay remains a decision in the hands of the Braves front office. But they have to do something. To leave the problem alone would be to neglect a vulnerability at the worst possible time. The Braves have had a division lead since May, but it’s just two games now. The Phillies are getting healthier. The Braves have to act.

There’s no denying defensive metrics are controversial. Whether they clash with what you’ve seen with your own eyes, or you just don’t believe them, it seems like everyone has some sort of opinion to offer on their validity.

On FanGraphs, we carry no less than four different defensive metrics:

UZR – Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Zone Rating
DRS – John Dewan’s Defensive Runs Saved
TZL – Rally’s Total Zone (location based version)
TZ – Rally’s Total Zone (standard version)

There’s no denying that we use some more frequently than others (cough, UZR), but the reason we have all four is because it’s great to see what different data sets and different models spit out. And In addition to the four, there’s also a fifth completely unrelated metric in the Fans Scouts Report that is run each and every year on insidethebook.com by Tangotiger.

It’s important to note that all these defensive metrics are not on the same scale, so it’s difficult to glance at all four (five if you use the Fans Scouting Report) and get a good sense if they’re in agreement or not. Which brings me to the preliminary look at the Aggregate Defensive Evaluations, where each metric is put on the same scale for each position, averaged, and then a standard deviation is computed for each player. Here are the 2009 Shortstops (min 82 games played):

As you can see, Paul Janish and Brendan Ryan are the clear leaders atop the list and even all the metrics are for the most part in agreement. +/- 5 runs in either direction is still going to make them elite defenders.

And there are players like Yunel Escobar who is considered by Total Zone and DRS to be very good, but by UZR and the Fans to be more or less average. On an aggregate level he still ends up as very good, though there is a good amount of disagreement as to just how good he is, even if no system thinks he’s below average.

All in all, it should be easy to go up and down the list and see which players there’s a high level of confidence about defensively, and which there is not.

From a mere computational standpoint, is this the best way to go about combining defensive metrics? I’m really not sure and it’s certainly worth looking into further. There are a lot of options in weighting the metrics differently and how to scale them, but overall I feel this is at least a decent start and something I hope to delve into a bit more.

The point here is that there’s a lot of information in these metrics with so many models out there it’s becoming increasingly important to try and identify what we’re fairly confident about and what we’re not so confident about instead of making the mistake of throwing them all away.

If you’ve read the comments of nearly any post I’ve written in the last few months, you’ve probably seen someone reference #6org, the popular twitter hashtag meme that was born out of our pre-season organizational rankings. A lot of people objected to that ranking when it came out, and the fact that the Mariners have been a disaster this year has only fueled the flames.

I’ve generally ignored the #6org crowd and just let them have their fun. I didn’t want to come across as defensive, and the comments were always off the topic of the actual post anyway. I don’t like encouraging people to hijack the comments of a post on a given subject, so we’ve just glossed over the comments and moved on.

That said, I know there are reasonable people who feel like the ranking is worth discussing in light of how Seattle’s season has gone. So, if you’re one of those people, the next day or two is for you.

I’ll spend the next few posts I write answering questions about Seattle’s placement in our organizational rankings series. How many posts that covers depends on the quality and quantity of the questions – I don’t plan on spending much time responding to trolls, but for those who have legitimate questions or valid points of view, I want to give them a proper response.

So, #6org’ers, this comment thread is for you. If you want to have a reasonable discourse on the issues surrounding the ranking, you can leave your remark in the comments of this post, and I’ll spend the next few days responding as best I can in future posts (trying to respond in enough depth in the comments section is a bit unwieldy). My hope would be that this provides an opportunity for us to see each other’s point of view a bit better. We’ll see how it works.

Fire away.

Next year, on draft day, the MLB Network will show the usual crop of limited highlights they have on the high school draftees. Much of the video, for a certain group of players, will come from an event played two days ago: the Under Armour All-American Game, presented by Baseball Factory, held at Wrigley Field. This, along with the AFLAC All-America Game, played in San Diego yesterday, are the final significant events in a summer rife with showcases for the nation’s top prospects. The games this weekend surely each had a couple players that will hear their name called by Bud Selig next June.

Living two miles south of Wrigley Field, I had no choice but to make an appearance on Saturday morning to get my first taste of this high school class. In the interest of full disclosure, I was only able to stay for batting practice and the “Home Run Derby.” Lucky for me, the event was televised, so I was still able to catch the game on DVR. Still, it’s amazing how much you pick up from a single batting practice, and I was joined by 50-75 scouts furiously taking notes as each kid had his turn. Here are 10 talking points from three different perspectives about the event.

What I Learned From Watching Batting Practice On the First Base Side at Wrigley

1. Rookie Davis is a beast of a man, his 220 pound listed weight (on a 6-foot-5 frame) is laughable. One of 17 pitchers to have his turn on the mound, the ECU commit stood out more in batting practice. Because of his strength, he doesn’t need to square up the baseball to hit home runs in Major League stadiums. His bat speed didn’t match some of the other raw athletes, but no one hit the ball farther.

2.In a similar vein, Jerrick Suiter entered the event with some helium for his mound prowess, having impressed many of the same scouts the week before at the Area Code Games. On Saturday, his appearance was a train wreck: he threw twice as many pitches as anyone else. His delivery and command were inconsistent if not plain bad. But while not viewed much as a hitter, his batting practice was one of the most impressive. He’s got an easy right-handed swing, showed a willingness to hit to right field, and has some untapped power. I wouldn’t close the door on an offensive career yet.

3. The name Dante Bichette Jr. jumped off the roster page at me, and Bichette bears a striking resemblance to his father. At the plate, he had a weird day. He hit a few balls out of Wrigley, albeit by design: he swung as hard as anyone all day, and almost fell over more than once. His swing lacks balance, and he has a strange leg lift that he uses as a timing mechanism. Bichette pulls everything (his knock to right field in the game was more accident than “a good piece of hitting”), so pitchers would be smart to feed him a diet of balls away.

4. I don’t love Home Run Derbies in events like this; it promotes a bad approach to young hitters. But for Mason Robbins, who I was told hit just three home runs in his junior season of high school, it did show the proof of some power. I liked Robbins’ batting practice much, but wrote that it looked like a gap power profile and nothing more. Then, he hit four home runs before making five outs at the Derby — ultimately falling short of the “prize” — and shut me up. Robbins is the type of guy that will flash all five tools, but each is closer to “50” on the scouting scale than anything else.

What I Learned From Reading Some Friends That Stayed For the Actual Game

5. Keith Law ranked Bubba Starling as the best prospect in the high school class last week, and found his belief reinforced on Saturday. This, despite the fact that football (Starling is a Nebraska-bound quarterback) has kept his game raw: “Starling is still just throwing rather than really pitching … [but] it’s hard to forecast future velocity below the 92-95 range,”Keith wrote. His offensive abilities are similar: he has real power, but his swing is inconsistent and has some swing-and-miss. Committing to baseball will make him a lot of money.

6. The game’s offensive MVP was Wyoming product Brandon Nimmo. It was a good day to impress, as his state doesn’t have high school baseball, and his summer legion team won’t play much (if at all) before next year’s draft. He made sure, though, that scouts won’t forget him, with a good BP and an impressive triple to the opposite field. “I liked his approach, and he uses the whole field…” a scout told Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com.

7. The pitching MVP was local product Nick Burdi, a right-handed pitcher from Downers Grove, a suburb 30 miles southwest of Wrigley. I’ll cut to Baseball America’s Conor Glassey on why his outing was award worthy: “Burdi struck out all three batters he faced, using a 91-94 mph fastball, 79-83 changeup and an 85 slider. “ KLaw got more of a reliever vibe from Burdi, who throws from a very low arm slot. I side with Keith there.

8. Frankie Piliere was decisive in giving Top Pitcher honors to Lance McCullers Jr. , another son with a big league pedigree. “He was far and away the best arm on display in Chicago, sitting 95-97 mph with his fastball,” Piliere wrote. The hard-thrower had a reputation as a hitter, too, but there’s no question his future is on the mound. His swing was funky for me; his velocity came easy. Of course, he doesn’t have to make the decision until June 2012 — he’s only a rising junior.

What I Learned From My DVR: Tele-Scouting.

9. Between the TV replay and a stop watch, I can tell you that Shon Carson posted a sub-4.2 second home-to-first time. Carson is a really good running back that shows a lot of promise in baseball: while just 5-foot-9, the ball jumped off his bat more than anyone else there. I also graded his arm at plus, so it might make sense fiscally for Carson to choose baseball.

10. I’m a sucker for a good change-up, but events like this are about the last place you’re bound to find one. That’s why Idaho native Clayton Porter was such a welcome break from the rest. The 6-foot-4 lefty had this series of pitches to begin his inning: fastball called strike over outside corner, 1-to-7 curveball that just missed low and inside, 88 mph fastball a little up and away fouled off, plus 81 mph change-up off the plate low and outside for a swinging strike three. Projectable with a feel for offspeed stuff? Sign me up.

(Tomorrow, when the dust clears: a review of the 2010 draft, seen through the prism of who actually signed. Today at 4 p.m. ET: Prospect Chat.)

A few days ago, Dave Cameron pointed out that a trio of New York Yankees starters are striking out fewer batters than in years past. A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, and CC Sabathia are probably drawing the ire of P.C. Richards (fewer whistles!) But, unlike Burnett and Vazquez, CC has compensated for a decline in K’s by waging a ground assault in 2010.

From 2007-2009, Sabathia struck out 8.2 batters per nine innings. Prior to the start of this season, both CHONE and ZiPS projected CC to whiff about 7.7 opponents per nine frames. Instead, Sabathia has 6.9 K/9 through 174.2 innings pitched. The towering lefty’s swinging strike rate, which was 12.2% from 2007-2009, comes in at 8.9% in 2010 (8.4% MLB average this season). CC’s 74.7% contact rate from ’07 to ’09 was lowest among qualified MLB starters, but that mark is up to 79.9% this year (80-81% MLB average).

As Dave C. mentioned, Sabathia is throwing his 93-94 MPH fastball slightly more. Those extra heaters have come early in the count — the 30-year-old has thrown a fastball 72% of the time on the first pitch, compared to 69% in ’09 and 64% in ’08 (the MLB average is about 66%). According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, that fastball is getting fewer whiffs. Hitters are missing the pitch 5.4% of the time that it’s thrown. For comparison, CC induced a whiff 6% of the time with his fastball last year and 6.3% in 2008. The MLB average is around six percent.

But the drop in whiffs is more pronounced on Sabathia’s secondary stuff. Sabathia’s mid-80’s changeup has been whiffed at 17.8%. While the number is still way above the 12.1% big league average, it’s nonetheless a marked drop from his 24.5% figure in ’09 and 24.1% rate in 2008. CC low-80’s slider has a 14.9% whiff rate in 2010, compared to 16% in ’09 and 22.6% in ’08 (13% MLB average).

Despite racking up fewer strikeouts, Sabathia has a quality 3.95 xFIP. How? He’s getting grounders 51.3% of the time this year, up from 44.9% the previous three campaigns. Using Pitch F/X data from Joe Lefkowitz’s site, I broke down Sabathia’s batted ball distribution by pitch type to see from where the extra ground balls are coming. I also included the major league averages by pitch type, provided by Harry Pavlidis.

Sabathia is inducing more grounders with all of his pitches, with the largest increase coming on his fastball. The uptick in grounders has led to more twin killings. Baseball-Reference shows that Sabathia’s double play rate (the number of times he has gotten two or more force outs on a ground ball) is 18%, after ranging from 10-13% from 2007 to 2009. The MLB average is 11%.

CC Sabathia hasn’t been the same overpowering starter this season, using his tumbling changeup and sweeping breaking stuff to garner lots of strikeouts. But he has largely staved off a decline in performance by getting batters to smack the ball into the infield grass more frequently. It will be interesting to see if this is the beginning of a new phase in Sabathia’s career, as he transitions from a high K hurler to a guy who remains effective due to good control and strong ground ball tendencies. Considering that the Yankees owe CC $23 million per season from 2011-2015, they’ll surely have a close eye on the big man.

Thanks to Dave Allen for leading me in the right direction on this piece.

The return of Bryan Bullington was covered by our own R.J. Anderson last week. Entering yesterday’s start against the New York Yankees, Bullington was 0-7 with a 5.02 ERA and similarly poor peripheral statistics. Now, Bullington has a major league victory.

Some major league victories are cheap. Surely Brad Thomas earned his fifth win of the season after throwing all of one scoreless inning in a 21 run game between the White Sox and the Tigers. Surely Tyler Clippard earned win number nine after throwing two innings immediately after Stephen Strasburg struck out seven batters in only five innings. And surely Kyle Kendrick earned his eighth victory of the 2010 season last night, a season in which he has a 5.03 FIP.

Bullington’s first major league victory was not cheap, by any means. In eight innings, Bullington struck out five Yankees, walked only one, and allowed only two hits. It’s not like the Yankees were scorching the ball either – according to our data, the Yankees did not hit a single line drive against Bullington. Instead, it was 10 ground balls at infielders and 10 weak fly balls which stayed in the yard. Bullington had a fantastic start by any measure, particularly WPA, which had Bullington at +.612 in the Royals’ 1-0 victory over the AL East and MLB leading New York Yankees.

As R.J. noted, Bullington was a first overall draft pick with “middle of the rotation potential.” Perhaps the fact that his peak was a Jake Westbrook type pitcher says it all as to why the Pirates should have avoided Bullington as a first overall pick. It’s certainly not as if this one good start suggests that Bullington will go on to have a successful major league career in Kansas City, either.

Bullington’s career stats only support the notion that he was a mistake as a number one pick. Entering last night’s start, Bullington had struck out fewer than six batters per nine innings and walked nearly four. Toss in some home run issues – 1.38 HR/9 in 52.0 career innings pitched – and you have a pitcher who flirts with replacement level with every trip to the mound.

Given that 5,889 people had done it entering Sunday’s games, it’s hard to call the club that Bullington has joined “elite.” Still, Bullington pitched an extremely good game against one of the best lineups in the league today, making his performance on Sunday even more impressive. Bryan Bullington turns 30 next month, and it’s difficult to imagine anything great coming out of Bullington’s major league career over the next few years. Despite the struggles, his first victory is out of the way. Now he’s one step closer to joining an even more exclusive club: those 5,066 pitchers with at least two major league victories.

As Erik Manning is all-too willing to remind us, defensive prodigy Peter Bourjos recently made his major league debut, pushing Angels’ incumbent center fielder, Torii Hunter, over to right in the process.

In their most recent Prospect Handbook, Baseball America calls Bourjos’ defense “game-changing,” and the numbers agree: per Total Zone, Bourjos was worth +76 runs in 360 games started in center field 2006 to 2009.

The question remains, though: of what value is Bourjos to the more aesthetically oriented baseball enthusiast?

In what follows, I hope to provide something like an answer, as I critique each of the eleven videos at Bourjos’ MLB.com highlight reel.

[Note: links to each video are available by clicking on the title of said video. Dates of action are in brackets.]

Bourjos Makes the Basket Catch [04.01.10]
The grainy resolution of the video makes it impossible to regard “Basket Catch” as anything but what it is: the early work of a talented, but immature, highlight-maker. By that criteria, however, it’s a success. Even in this first effort, we see a theme that will recur throughout Bourjos’ corpus — namely, his ability to make the difficult appear effortless.

Bourjos Scores to Win It [04.02.10]
An underwhelming clip from a player still very much experimenting with his voice. Here we see — what? — Bourjos scoring from third on a shortstop Chin-lung Hu’s error, which error occurs with two outs in a tie game. If anything, this work is more about the latter’s identity. “Who is Hu?” one asks. “Perhaps not a major league shortstop,” another is forced to answer.

Bourjos’ Game-Tying Double [04.02.10]
“Game-Tying Double” is the third installment in Bourjos’ spring training triptych, and the first in which we see him at the plate. Like “Scores to Win It,” Bourjos’ contribution is only interesting when considered within the context of the game — a game which, as the title suggests, he ties — as opposed to any sort of conspicuous display of genius from Bourjos. This is a piece whose interest is limited only to aficionadi of his work.

Bourjos’ Strong Throw [08.04.10]
Like a sunrise exploding over the crystalline horizon of the Arctic’s icy plains, Bourjos’ first true mature work is almost too dazzling to behold. This highlight announces Bourjos’ arrival. We see his trademark range as he tracks the ball almost from straight-away, or even right-, center field; the quick release and accuracy (if not strength) of his throwing arm; and, finally, Scott’s reaction, a provocative mixture of disappointment and awe.

Bourjos’ Strong Game [08.04.10]
“Strong Game” is essentially the extended, director’s cut of “Strong Throw,” featuring — in addition to the aforementioned throw — a single off of third baseman Joshua Bell’s glove, a steal of third, and an infield hit also in Bell’s direction. As with other director’s cuts, “Strong Game” (a) is longer and less even in quality than the original and (b) includes a narrative entirely ignored by the cleaner studio version. The narrative in question here is the tête-à-tête between rookies Bourjos and Bell — an encounter won easily by Bourjos.

Bourjos Runs It Down [08.05.10]
The play in question, though excellent, is almost entirely overshadowed by the encounter immediately afterwards between Bourjos and the man whose position he usurped, Torii Hunter. In a brave and refreshing gesture, though, “Runs It Down” totally forgoes the tired Oedipal narrative. Instead, we see the two men celebrating and equaled humbled by Bourjos’ gift. “Bravo, Bourjos. Bravo, humanity,” one is left saying.

Bourjos’ Running Catch [08.08.10]
No player on a field is more isolated, further from his teammates, than the center fielder: that’s the message of “Running Catch.” Here we see Don Kelly line (fline?) a ball to deep center, and see Bourjos — alone, and yet the focus of all attention — make a two-handed grab. For those unconvinced, the Howard’s Appliance and Big Screen Superstore Replay allows us to re-live the action, where we feel the loneliness of the short-distance runner even more piquantly.

Bourjos’ Squeeze Play [08.10.10]
Though still too young to abandon completely all attempts at offensive highlights, “Squeeze Play” serves merely to reinforce the notion that Bourjos’ best work is done on the other side of the ball.

Bourjos’ Diving Catch [08.13.10]
Besides representing yet another instance of Bourjos’ excellent range and body control, “Diving Catch” distinguishes itself for being the first of Bourjos’ highlights featuring a camera angle that allows the viewer to track Bourjos from contact to catch. We see in the replay of said catch, starting at about the 0:25 mark, that the young center fielder begins his path to the ball on contact. We leave duly reassured: Bourjos isn’t merely a showboater, but an instinctual fielder, too.

Bourjos’ Leaping Catch [08.13.10]
As Jonny Gomes is all-too capable of reminding us, not all leaping catches are made the same. Accordingly, the viewer must always question whether a great-looking play is actually a great actual play. As we saw in “Diving Catch,” such concerns are likely unwarranted with Bourjos. As such, we can enjoy “Leaping Catch” unfettered by such anxieties.

Bourjos Is Not Awarded Base [08.14.10]
Make no mistake: in and of itself “Not Awarded Base” is a disappointment — certainly a letdown from the dizzying heights of “Leaping” and “Diving.” But in the context of the Bourjosian oeuvre, it serves as a well-timed reminder: despite the prodigy’s already impressive resume, the Old Guard (and, specifiaclly, Joe West) is not so easily converted.

One has to wonder what fans of the Cubs would’ve said if a little birdie foretold of Marlon Byrd, Starlin Castro, Carlos Silva, and Tom Gorzelanny’s seasons in the springtime. Sure, Angel Guzman would still be out, but with those four contributing so much, the Cubs would have to be contenders. To steal a bit from Carson Cistulli, if the Cubs’ fan on staff, the illustrious Bryan Smith, had his druthers, this Cubs’ season would disappear.

The list of disasters for the Cubs this season is long and stretches from Carlos Zambrano to Aramis Ramirez to Derrek Lee and beyond. We have this nifty little metric on the leaderboards and player pages called “Clutch”. Essentially, it measures if a batter hits better or worse in – you guessed it – clutch situations than they normally do. The Cubs as a team are hitting worse. Far worse. Like -5.88 wins worse.

The most critical offenders are Geovany Soto (-1.96), Tyler Colvin (-1.06), Lee (-0.95) the departed Ryan Theriot (-0.84), Alfonso Soriano (-0.75), and Ramirez (-0.50). As it turns out, those six batters account for nearly 50% of the Cubs’ high leverage plate appearances. Whenever that much of your lineup is having serious issues hitting in big spots, trouble is bound to ensue. At first blush, with the talent on this roster, it looks like a feature of the offense that regression and a fresh slate will ostracize. Slight problem there: that last sentence could apply to eight of the last ten seasons and now nine of the last eleven. Here are the Cubs’ Clutch scores dating back to 2000:

2010: -5.88
2009: -4.98
2008: 0.90
2007: -3.10
2006: 0.10
2005: -2.63
2004: -6.52
2003: -2.15
2002: -5.96
2001: -0.85
2000: -3.79

That, folks, is a total of -35 wins. The Angels have become spectacles of clutch hitting perfection. If you take their Clutch scores since 2000 and add them all up, you won’t reach 20 wins and if you only add up the positive values you fall four shy of 30. The Cubs are essentially the anti-Angels but to a higher degree. If someone were to ink a holy book of unclutch named The Book of A-Rod (ironically, of course), the 2000-2010 Cubs would be all up in that.

There does not seem to be a common thread either. They’ve had four different managers over this span, numerous hitting coaches – including the highly praised Rudy Jaramillo – and even a couple of general managers. Maybe everything, from teaching to evaluation and preparation methods remained the same, but that seems unlikely. This phenomenon drains on players homegrown and free agents signed alike. It appears to hold no discrimination for age or position. The only thing constant is that it has zapped the Cubs for the last decade plus and the answer as to why is mystifying.

With just 331 Major League innings under his belt, Ricky Romero has to be feeling quite pleased with his new contract, the largest ever given to a pitcher with his service time. The five-year deal begins in 2011 and so it buys out all of Romero’s arbitration years, one of his free agency seasons and even contains a club option on another. There is no solid word yet on the breakdown of the salaries, signing bonus or any information on the option. Still, we can offer a rough evaluation of the deal from just the 2011 through 2015 part.

Romero will finish his second year of service time in 2010 and would have been on a club-controlled contract for 2011. He would then be arbitration eligible for 2012, ’13 and ’14 and a free agent or 2015. Given the standard guide of 40%/60%/80% of market value expected for arbitration rulings, the five years of Romero’s contract add up to 2.8 seasons of free market worth plus one year at the league minimum. That is what Toronto and Romero are surrendering by not going year-to-year.

With a payment of $30.1 million guaranteed, that works out to the Jays paying Romero $10.75 million per market year. With current trends pegging the market dollars paid per win at around $4 million we have an estimation of about 2.75 to 3.0 wins per season for the contract’s middle point once we factor in the discount Romero should be offering for the security of a long-term deal.

Romero produced 2.7 WAR last season and is already at 3.4 this year so on the face of it, this looks like a possible win for the Blue Jays already. With just two seasons of data to judge with, we must be careful about sniffing out any possible regression however. Luckily for Toronto, there does not appear to be any red flags with Romero’s Major League numbers. His FIP is close to his xFIP and his BABIP and HR/FB rates are normal. He misses bats and gets ground balls giving him a safety net if his stuff diminishes over the course of the deal.

With the club option details unknown, I believe that if Romero can stay healthy, this contract is likely to end up being slightly favorable to Toronto. I don’t see Romero getting ripped off though, especially with so much uncertainty lingering in how future free agent markets are going to shape up. This is a fair deal to both sides.

Entering 2010, FanGraphs posted Top 10 prospect lists for all 30 MLB organizations. And it’s been a great year for rookies, which means there are going to be a lot of changes in the Top 10 lists for 2011. Before we tackle that beast after the season, though, we’re taking a look at how each club’s No. 1 prospect has fared in 2010. Today, we’re starting with the American League East division.

The New York Yankees
Jesus Montero | Catcher
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 20

It’s been a tumultuous season for Montero, who didn’t hit above .250 in a month until June and was almost traded out of the organization. Despite all the drama, Montero remains in pinstripes and that’s a very good thing for the organization. Still just 20, the catcher has held his own at triple-A given his age. He’s currently hitting .286/.359/.493 in 371 at-bats. He’s shown power potential (.208 ISO) against much more advanced pitching while keeping his strikeout rate in check for a power hitter (19.9 K%). Montero’s defense continues to be a work-in-progress (14 passed balls, 23% caught stealing) but time is still on his side. Value: Down Slightly

The Tampa Bay Rays
Desmond Jennings | Outfielder
2010 Level: Triple-A
Age: 23

A late start to the 2010 season, due to an injury, hampered Jennings’ overall impact this year. He’s had an OK – but not great – season at triple-A as a 23 year old. The outfielder is currently hitting .285/.358/.415 in 340 at-bats. He’s been quite successful on the base paths (31 for 33) but his power has not developed as hoped (.129 ISO – his lowest rate since ’06). Jennings has probably been passed by pitcher Jeremy Hellickson as the club’s No. 1 prospect, but the outfielder should still make Carl Crawford or B.J. Upton expendable during the off-season. He still has a little ways to go before he’s a high-impact player. Value: Even

The Boston Red Sox
Casey Kelly | Right-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: Double-A
Age: 20

It hasn’t been a good year to be a Red Sox prospect. Prospect lists flipped back and forth between Kelly and Ryan Westmoreland as the club’s No. 1 prospect but the latter player underwent brain surgery while the former struggled to adjust to double-A. Given that 2010 was Kelly’s first time committing to pitching full-time (after spending his prep career and first pro season as a two-way player), perhaps Boston was a little too aggressive with the 20-year-old hurler. The right-hander currently has a 5.31 ERA (4.03 FIP) through 21 starts and has seen his walk rate (3.32 BB/9) more than double over last season. Kelly has been quite hittable (11.18 H/9) but he’s also been the victim of a high BABIP (.366). The ’08 draft pick probably needs to repeat double-A in 2011 and it would be nice to see him get his ground-ball rate (currently 45%) back up over 50%, as it was in 2009. Value: Down Slightly

The Toronto Blue Jays
Brett Wallace | First Baseman
2010 Level: Triple-A/MLB
Age: 23

Obtained from Oakland in the off-season during the Roy Halladay dealings, Wallace has now joined his fourth organization since turning pro in 2008. The first baseman was sent from Toronto to Houston (via Philadephia) during the July traded deadline dealings in exchange for raw, but athletic, outfielder Anthony Gose. The move was a bit of a head-scratcher but the Jays organization is openly gambling on potential. Wallace was having an OK season at triple-A prior to the trade. Playing in a very offense-favorable environment, he hit .301/.359/.509 in 385 at-bats. His power output was a little disappointing considering his environment (.208 ISO), and so too was his walk rate (6.4 BB%). After the trade, which saw him land in Houston, Wallace has hit .294/.385/.353 in 34 MLB at-bats. The loss of Wallace to Houston has left pitcher Kyle Drabek – who was also picked up in the Halladay deal – as Toronto’s No. 1 prospect. Value: Down Slightly

The Baltimore Orioles
Brian Matusz | Left-Handed Pitcher
2010 Level: MLB
Age: 23

One of my early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the AL, Matusz has gone through some growing pains in 2010. His ERA currently sits at 5.08 (4.76 FIP) and he’s been an extreme fly-ball pitcher, as witnessed by his ground-ball rate of just 35.9%. Matusz’ four-pitch repertoire has helped him keep things together reasonable well for his rookie season but a lack of fastball command – as well as an inconsistent changeup – has hampered his development. Because he had limited time in the minors (19 career starts), the lefty is learning to pitch at the MLB level so there will probably be some bumps in the road in 2011, as well. Value: Even

Up Next: The NL West