Ricky Romero Gets a Deal
With just 331 Major League innings under his belt, Ricky Romero has to be feeling quite pleased with his new contract, the largest ever given to a pitcher with his service time. The five-year deal begins in 2011 and so it buys out all of Romero’s arbitration years, one of his free agency seasons and even contains a club option on another. There is no solid word yet on the breakdown of the salaries, signing bonus or any information on the option. Still, we can offer a rough evaluation of the deal from just the 2011 through 2015 part.
Romero will finish his second year of service time in 2010 and would have been on a club-controlled contract for 2011. He would then be arbitration eligible for 2012, ’13 and ’14 and a free agent or 2015. Given the standard guide of 40%/60%/80% of market value expected for arbitration rulings, the five years of Romero’s contract add up to 2.8 seasons of free market worth plus one year at the league minimum. That is what Toronto and Romero are surrendering by not going year-to-year.
With a payment of $30.1 million guaranteed, that works out to the Jays paying Romero $10.75 million per market year. With current trends pegging the market dollars paid per win at around $4 million we have an estimation of about 2.75 to 3.0 wins per season for the contract’s middle point once we factor in the discount Romero should be offering for the security of a long-term deal.
Romero produced 2.7 WAR last season and is already at 3.4 this year so on the face of it, this looks like a possible win for the Blue Jays already. With just two seasons of data to judge with, we must be careful about sniffing out any possible regression however. Luckily for Toronto, there does not appear to be any red flags with Romero’s Major League numbers. His FIP is close to his xFIP and his BABIP and HR/FB rates are normal. He misses bats and gets ground balls giving him a safety net if his stuff diminishes over the course of the deal.
With the club option details unknown, I believe that if Romero can stay healthy, this contract is likely to end up being slightly favorable to Toronto. I don’t see Romero getting ripped off though, especially with so much uncertainty lingering in how future free agent markets are going to shape up. This is a fair deal to both sides.
Matthew Carruth is a software engineer who has been fascinated with baseball statistics since age five. When not dissecting baseball, he is watching hockey or playing soccer.
I believe Romero is a Super-Two player, so he would have 4 arbitration years. Not sure how that changes things.
Yeah, he’s a Super Two. Which makes this an even better deal for the Jays. With the extra bump he would make even more. Even if he didn’t improve or regresses. Obviously the issue is that you can’t just non-tender him if his arm falls off or whatever.
How can he be a Super Two with just 2 years (exactly) of service time?
No, he is not a super 2. he has exacttly 1 year before this season and will have exactly 2 years after this one.
Another solid deal for Alex Anthopoulos. I like the cut of his jib.
“I believe that if Romero can stay healthy, this contract is likely to end up being slightly favorable to Toronto.”
Shouldn’t these deals be extremely favorable to the team if the player stays healthy? They’re taking a risk by guaranteeing so many years to a pitcher. If they only come out slightly ahead in the event that the pitcher stays healthy, then is it worth it?
Exactly… the guarantee of long term money should generate some value for the club.
If this is only slightly favorable, why bother locking him up? Why not go year to year and look at buying out a FA year when he starts getting into his arbitration years? Unless the Jays think Romero will break out next year this seems like minimal gain and upside.
Though as the author mentions, the club option details could change the equation a bit – if the Jays have a real favorable club option it makes the deal a bit better for the Jays.
I hope this doesn’t affect him the way it seemed to affect Rios, Lind & Hill.
Rios had a 5 WAR season when he was extended.
That was the year he had a really high UZR, right?
Wasn’t it more than double his career average? Love it when people quote the WAR…. Fangraphs has him at 5.4WAR in 08, Baseball reference.com has him at 2.2WAR.
Which # is correct? How much variabilty are in these WAR #’s that people are unaware of (especially if UZR is used and defense is a significant chunk of it for a specific player)
At some point people are going to start putting some error bars on these #’s… instead of quoting them as a specific # as if it is an accurate measurement.
Not to forget The Contract.
Hill’s best year was after his extension.
This seems premature. RR didn’t have a particularly impressive season in the minors in 2008. He was a hair better than average in 178 innings last year, but only that. The Jays are effectively committing a nice chunk of change based largely on Romero’s performance this year. I see what Romero is getting out of this, but I don’t quite see how the Jays benefit by acting now as opposed to waiting until next season. If Romero continues to pitch like this is his price really going to go up if you consider how far from free agency he’ll still be as of July 2011?
Cost certainty. The Jays will know exactly how much he costs over his time with the club. In addition it means keeping the player happy, avoids the arbitration process (which can get hairy), and signals the rest of the pitchers that the Jays are willing to do what it takes to keep them in town and reward them for their performance.
I am constrained to point out that the Giants also got cost certainty with, ahem, Barry Zito. I agree that cc is worth a few dollars, but I stand by my thinking it’s not worth the premium RR will be getting.
Too much money for romero.
Gallardo got the same deal, but he is a MUCH better pitcher.
is he really? Gallardo had a better rookie year FIP wise but Ricky did throw 176 innings so they ended up with the same WAR. Gallardo barely pitched at all his second year and if you compare his third year to Romero this year, Ricky comes out on top quite easily(3.97 FIP vs 3.39 FIP(romero))
Why? Because you’re a Brewers fan? Fail post.
Gallardo is much better?…..
Do you even watch baseball?
Romero has not even reached his ceiling yet
IS the better pitcher right now with not even 2 full seasons under his belt
not to mention he is doing this in the AL East
last ten games…. @NYY (2), BOS (2), DET, STL, @SD,
Romero is almost a year and half older…
Gallardo missed out on his first full season due to a freak injury, im not going to hold that against him.
Gallardo strikes out more than 2 more per 9.
Im not going to compare gallardo’s 2nd year with Romeros 2nd full year, im comparing each pitcher as they are NOW.
Its not like im a gallardo fanboy either. I think Lester is also a much better pitcher than romero.
It wasn’t the best deal ever for the Jays… but they lock up one of the better pitchers in the AL East through his prime years. You can’t really complain.
Plus Gallardo pitches in the juggernaut which is the NL Central.
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When a long term contract is signed by a baseball player is there a performance clause
Involved.