A little over a week ago, I suggeted that the Angels should change their outfield alignment by promoting Peter Bourjos and giving him playing time that was being allotted to Juan Rivera and Bobby Abreu (who could then both take DH time away from Hideki Matsui). By using Bourjos over the slow and aged, the argument was that they would get a significant improvement in their outfield defense and a peek at their future, as they’re staring at a pretty sizeable gap between themselves and the Texas Rangers.

Well, the Angels not only agreed with the assessment, but they’re taking it one step further; tonight, Bourjos will make his major league debut, and he’ll do so in center field. No, Torii Hunter is not getting a day off – the guy who has won nine consecutive Gold Gloves as a CF is playing right field for the first time since 1999.

Hunter has long been held up as an example of the questionable viability of defensive metrics by those who prefer visual analysis. His reputation is that of one of the game’s best outfielders, yet UZR has ranked him below average in CF for each of the last five years. The advanced metrics don’t think he’s terrible, just not anything special.

The Angels apparently agree, or at least don’t disagree very strongly. If they saw the difference between Bourjos and Hunter as minimal, they wouldn’t have bothered to upset the apple cart by shifting Hunter over in favor of the rookie. They’re taking the risk of offending their highest paid player, which isn’t something an organization does on a whim. That Hunter is moving to right to accommodate Bourjos, and not vice versa, is a pretty good sign that the Angels believe that there’s a big gap in defensive value between the two.

I think they’re correct, and they should be applauded for making a bold move that may not be particularly popular in some circles. Bourjos is exceptionally fast, and while we don’t have UZR for the minor leagues, the reports on him are very good, and players with his speed profile are often among the league leaders in range. This is the best use of resource that the Angels have.

The Reds have made the NL Central perhaps the most interesting race of the summer. At the two-thirds mark they’re 60-47, leading the Cardinals by just one win. They’re tied for the NL lead in team wOBA, and while they rank 13th in FIP they’ve realized better results. Their 4.02 ERA ranks seventh in the NL, thanks, at least in part, to their team UZR/150 of 6.3, third in the NL.

They’ve had plenty of help from the expected performers. Joey Votto has established himself as an elite first baseman in a league where there are six first basemen with a WAR of 3 or more, Votto leads the way with 5.1, a full win better than the next closest player. Brandon Phillips, thanks to equally excellent seasons on offense and defense, ranks second among NL second basemen with a 3.7 WAR. Despite missing time, Scott Rolen ranks third among NL third basemen with 3.6 WAR.

Still, it takes more than three heavy hitters to power a league-leading offense. To that end, the Reds have gotten help from Chris Heisey (6.6 wRAA), Ryan Hanigan (4.3 wRAA), and Miguel Cairo (4.0 wRAA). These players have played an important complementary role on offense, bringing above-average production to supplement the star power of Votto and company.

That last name in particular stands out. Cairo is the definition of a journeyman. Just look at his Baseball Reference page. He has played parts of 15 seasons in the majors, landing on nine different teams. He has stayed on no one team for more than three years, and even then he hasn’t done that since his 1998-2000 stint on the Devil Rays. He has played on five teams in the last four years and has changed teams nine times in the last 10 years. In other words, he is the consummate journeyman. Every once in a while he makes a positive contribution to his team, and the Reds are the beneficiaries this time around.

At 36 Cairo is not in the midst of a career revival, but instead is making one last run while he’s still considered an option as a utility player. His .355 wOBA is by far the highest of his career. Last year he produced a wOBA of over .300 for the first time since 2004, and even then it was .304 in 47 PA. Before that he had a .336 wOBA as the regular second baseman for the Yankees in 2004. He hasn’t eclipsed the 400 PA mark since that year. Even this year he figures to clock in under the 250 PA mark, but unlike in years past he has been quite effective.

Like many runs by below-average players, Cairo’s 2010 outburst is BABIP-fueled. It is .328 this year — well above his .292 career average and his highest, again, since that 2004 season. This is due, it appears, to him squaring up plenty of pitches, leading to a 27.3 percent line drive rate. Yet these aren’t the only standout aspect of Cairo’s season. He has walked in 8.1 percent of his PA, the highest he’s achieved since splitting time between Cubs and Cardinals. His power has also hit a high-water mark, a .121 ISO, his highest again since 2004 (and discounting his 47 PA from last year, which may or may not be fair). His .367 OBP is the highest in his career.

At 36, Cairo doesn’t have much time left. There are a few utility men who can play into their late 30s, but Cairo never seemed the type. Like other utility men, he lacks with the bat, but he doesn’t have top-notch defense to go with it. His career UZR is negative at every position except third and first bases, and at third he’s right around league average at best. Chances are he’ll head to free agency again and wait until late January or even February to catch on with a team in need of a utility player, and even then will probably receive only offers for minor league contracts. Still, he’s made the most of his opportunity in 2010, and the Reds are all the better for it. It’s not every day that you see a utility player with the sixth highest wRAA on the team.

So the trade deadline came and went this past weekend, and in that time Adam Dunn remained a Washington National. The discussion about whether or not this move in and of itself was wise has been had at length, with most people comparing it to when the Nats didn’t trade Alfonso Soriano during the 2006 season. With Soriano, this move seems to have worked out. Washington used the draft picks from the Cubs, who signed Soriano to a long-term deal, to select pitchers Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmerman. Zimmerman, who is coming off an injury that has prevented him from pitching thus far in 2010, was great in his rookie ’09 season with a 3.39 xFIP in ~91 innings. At twenty-one years old, Josh Smoker has stagnated with a rough season in A-ball. Still, that’s probably around what you’d expect to get from a few months of Soriano at the trade deadline.

However, the results don’t justify the process, and Adam Dunn isn’t Alfonso Soriano. The trade market was hugely underwhelming this year, and Dunn seemed to be the sexiest name on the block. Our own Matt Klaassen looked at Dunn’s value a few weeks ago:

ZiPS Rest-of-Season projections see Dunn as about a +18 hitter over the remainder of the season; let’s call him 2 WAR overall for the rest of 2010. He is probably owed between five and six million dollars for the rest of his contract, so unless Washington eats a substantial portion of his contract, there’s probably only three million dollars worth of projected surplus here — not bad, but probably not worth much more than a decent “C” prospect or two with some upside. However, because Dunn will likely be a Type A free agent in the offseason, draft pick compensation for the team offering him arbitration (assuming he turns it down) bumps the total projected surplus up to around nine million dollars, which means “B” prospects (plus filler) should definitely be in play.

According to Mike Rizzo, the offers for Dunn were just entirely below what they perceived his value to be. So there are a few outcomes that could come out of Washington’s passivity:

1) Dunn gets through waivers and gets traded to a contender (most likely San Francisco)

This one is possible, and Buster Olney thinks it can happen, but why would Mike Rizzo limit his trading pool, essentially lowering his expected returned value, by doing this? Also, the Nationals seemed to have made a strong PR move by keeping their franchise position player, making a potential waiver deal more unlikely.

2) The Nationals offer Dunn arbitration and he accepts it

This one would be bad. Baseball arbitrators like homers, RBI, and hometown guys a lot more than they like WAR, positional scarcity, or anything else of the ilk. Dunn could be looking at a big payday if he goes to arbitration, and Washington would probably be looking at getting a negative ROI via the contract.

3) The Nationals offer Dunn arbitration and he rejects it, signing elsewhere

This seems to be what the Nationals are hoping for (again similar to the Soriano situation). With Strasburg and Bryce Harper, the Nats are poised to build a strong team in the near future, and good prospects can either surround those guys later on or become trade bait for MLB-ready players. Still, a late first round draft pick can fizzle out before you can say “Harrisburg.”

4) The Nationals re-sign Dunn either during the rest of the season or during the offseason

If this happens during the latter timeframe then the Nats will be competing with the likes of the Yankees and Red Sox, ballclubs with much bigger payrolls. If it happens during the season, then Washington is probably overpaying considering people have said Dunn will not give a home discount and wants to test the free agent waters.

Mike Rizzo made a strong stand for the Nationals franchise by not trading Adam Dunn. However, the question still remains if Washington is better off for it.

This winter, we’re going to see a few guys become very, very rich. Cliff Lee is going to become one of the highest paid pitchers in the game; Carl Crawford will likely join the $100 million contract club, while Jayson Werth and Adam Dunn will get paid for their power. But, to me, the most interesting free agent of all is Adrian Beltre.

He’s going to be a fascinating case. He’s essentially a lock to opt-out of the player option he has for 2011 and go back on the market, given how well he has played for the Red Sox this year. Two more home runs last night pushed him up to the +5.0 WAR level for the season, and he’s legitimately in the discussion for American League MVP.

And, while the offense has been better than anyone expected, Beltre’s been one of the game’s best third baseman for quite some time. He’s now accumulated +48.6 WAR in 7,300 career plate appearances, or an average of +4 wins per season. We’re looking at over a decade of excellence, but it comes with inconsistencies.

Outside of 2004 and 2010, Beltre’s bat has been more average than exceptional. He has now had two monstrous offensive seasons, but those are the exception rather than the rule. Whoever signs Beltre will have to expect something closer to a .350 wOBA rather than the .403 he’s at currently. Of course, he also brings excellent defense to the table, and he’s one of the most durable players around, so you get value beyond simply what he does at the plate.

So, what’s fair market value for a 32-year-old with a true talent level of about a +4 win player? In this market, where a lot of teams are still scared to add long term payroll, probably something like 3 years, $45 million. But, with so many other quality player on the market this winter and limited teams with spending power, I have a feeling he’ll get less than that – maybe something like 3/36 instead.

I’m curious, though – what would YOU pay Adrian Beltre this winter? Do you see this as just another fluke year, and he’ll regress back to something closer to what he was in Seattle, or have you seen enough to believe that he’s a different player outside of Safeco Field?

As a 22-year-old back in 2006, Francisco Liriano eviscerated American League hitters. The left-hander, originally signed out of the Dominican Republic by the San Francisco Giants but traded to the Twins in November of 2003, posted a 4.1 win season in just 121 innings pitched. Featuring mid-90’s gas, a quality changeup, and an upper-80’s slider causing hitters to swing out of their shoes, Liriano boasted the holy trinity of pitcher skills: He missed bats (10.71 K/9), limited the free passes (2.38 BB/9), and burned worms (55.3 GB%). With a 2.35 xFIP, Liriano looked poised to rank among baseball’s pitching heavyweights for years to come.

And then everything came to a screeching halt on August 7th against the Tigers. Liriano, who had been dealing with elbow soreness and forearm inflammation, left his start after just four innings. After spending over a month on the DL, he returned to take on the A’s on September 13th. The outing lasted just two frames. In November, the Twins’ would-be ace underwent Tommy John surgery.

He was effective upon returning in 2008, if not not the absolute terror on display in ’06. He got a few starts for the Twins in April, but was sent down to Triple-A Rochester after struggling to locate. In 118 International League innings, Liriano had 8.62 K/9 and 2.36 BB/9, though he didn’t generate as many grounders (42 GB%). According to Minor League Splits, Francisco’s pitching translated to a 4.03 FIP in the majors.

The minor league numbers weren’t too far off what he actually accomplished in the big leagues — tossing 76 innings, Liriano struck out 7.93 batters per nine frames, walked 3.79 per nine, and had a 41.6 GB%. His xFIP was 4.31. Last year was more of the same. Though Liriano’s 2009 ERA (5.80) was ghastly, he posted rates of 8.03 K/9, 4.28 BB/9, a 40.2 GB%, and a 4.55 xFIP in 136.2 innings.

Entering 2010, the Twins didn’t know what to expect from Liriano. His control often wavered, and his health remained a huge question mark after he missed time late in 2009 with forearm and elbow fatigue. Before Liriano lit up the Dominican Winter League, hitting 92-94 MPH with his heater for the first time since surgery, he wasn’t even assured a spot in the starting rotation.

Now, it’s hard to imagine the Twins staying in contention without Liriano’s dominant starts. In 136 IP, the 26-year-old has 9.93 K/9 and 2.51 BB/9, and he’s scorching the Earth again with a 53 percent ground ball rate. Liriano leads all qualified starting pitchers with a 2.83 xFIP, and with 5.5 WAR, he has added more value than any other starter.

Compared to ’08 and ’09, Liriano is getting far more first pitch strikes, while also allowing less contact and inducing more swinging strikes. Hitters are chasing his stuff off the plate more often, relative to the MLB average:

Among qualified starters, Liriano ranks first in swinging strike and contact rate. He ranks “only” fifth in outside swing rate, and is 43rd in first-pitch strike percentage. Slacker.

How is Liriano doing it? According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers.com, Francisco is using his souped-up fastball less often. When he does throw the pitch, he’s getting strikes at a better clip than in ’08 and ’09:

Those lost fastballs have been replaced by more sliders. That mid-80’s breaker has been nothing short of sinister — check out the strike and whiff rates on Liriano’s slider:

When Liriano gets two strikes, expect to see a slider. According to our pitch type splits, Liriano’s throwing his slider 66% in 0-2 counts, 61% in 1-2 counts, 69% in 2-2 counts, and 75% in 3-2 counts. Two-strike situations tend to be off-speed and breaking ball-heavy counts, but Liriano tosses his fastball less than most when he puts the hitter’s back against the wall:

Liriano’s changeup hasn’t gotten as many strikes, but the offering is still making batters whiff at an above-average rate:

At 59-47, the Twins sit one game back of the White Sox. CoolStandings.com suggests the team’s chance of making the playoffs is basically a coin flip (52%). While the M&M Boys are ailing, Minnesota can at least take solace in knowing that Liriano’s doing everything in his power to improve those odds.

UPDATE (4pm ET): Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports that News Corp. will not be bidding for the Rangers, according to Randy Freer, president of Fox Sports Networks. Also, Dennis Gilbert has dropped out, although he had dropped off the radar some time ago, and was thought to be marrying up with Jim Crane.

Sources indicated to me early Tuesday that Mark Cuban and Jim Crane have filed bids simultaneously ahead of the 8pm CT deadline and are working together. That leaves Dallas businessman Jeff Beck as the only open question mark for tomorrow’s auction.

A bit of history will be made on Weds. when the Texas Rangers will be put up for auction, with its outcome determined at a hearing on Thurs. To place this in perspective, the last time an MLB club was auctioned out of bankruptcy was the Baltimore Orioles in 1993. Here’s some key information to know leading up to the auction:

Who’s Bidding?

The group led by Chuck Greenberg and Nolan Ryan is, of course, going to be there, but beyond that, official bidders have until 8pm CT on Tues. night to file for the Weds. auction that begins at 9am CT and will be overseen by the Honorable Russell F. Nelms. Dallas Mavericks owner Mark Cuban has filed documents with the court in attempts to gain access to the club purchase, and Houston businessman Jim Crane has been involved with mediation sessions with William Snyder, the chief restructuring officer in the case. Dallas businessman Jeff Beck is a possibility, as well. What is unknown at the time of publication is whether Rupert Murdoch’s News Corp. will be preapproved by MLB for bidding on the club, as well. If so, there could be as many as 5 groups anteing up for the purchase of the club.

Still, if no other bidders outside of the Greenberg/Ryan group show up for the auction, the proceedings will be shifted from an auction to hearing on the confirmation of the Rangers’ Third Amended Plan of Reorganization, filed July 30, 2010.

What’s the Bidding Going to Start At?

Determining the very lowest a group can bid means looking at the Greenberg/Ryan’s group offer. The approx. $520 million “stalking horse” bid is really broken down into three parts.

Rangers Baseball Express (the group led by Greenberg/Ryan) is assuming approx. $220 million in liabilities of the Rangers. Secondly, approx. $220 million is then funneled back Rangers’ Equity Owners and the creditors. After that, an approx. $80 million balance will be paid to other creditors following closing of the sale. The “stalking horse” provision of the bid process has the first bid needing to be $15 million over, so Judge Michael Lynn has said that in principle, any bidder that has at least $95 million ready in hand, can be involved in the overbid process.

That doesn’t mean $95 million is what is going to be the bid price. It means that bidders, other than Greenberg/Ryan have been given the opportunity to use “bridge funding” from creditors to cover any balance above the $95 million. Certainly, all the bidders (should more than Greenberg/Ryan be at auction on Weds) will have far more to place at bid. But, any and all funding by the bidders through bridge funding has to be paid off no later than Oct 11, more than two months from the end of the auction. Should the winner of the auction fail to reach all the funding by Oct. 11, it would likely mean that the process would be opened back up, and yet another auction could take place.

But, the focus should be on the $306.7 million cash offer Greenberg/Ryan has on the table on Weds. Once the overbid of $15 million is added as a minimum, all subsequent bids will be in $2 million increments.

What’s Up for Sale?

Given that there are still looming questions about what William Snyder, the chief restructuring officer called “insider” transactions surrounding the lease of Rangers Ballpark of Arlington, as well as the Lenders arguing that “it is impossible for…. Potential bidders – in the time allotted… — to negotiate their own separate agreements with the parties that have the right to transfer them,” Lynn is suggesting that “it is preferable that a bidder exclude tainted assets or [other parties]” that may seek to claim damages from the “eve-of-filing transaction” that involves the lease transfer and/or the $70 million separate land deal that has been brokered between Tom Hicks and the Greenberg/Ryan group. That “side deal” includes the parking around the Ballpark that is a key revenue stream for both game day events, as well as during the NFL season when the lots can be used for new Cowboy Stadium. Another side deal that has raised eyebrows is an aircraft lease.

If those aspects are removed, as Lynn has suggested, it likely means that just the Rangers will be up for sale. Sorting out the other piece, critical to the functioning of the Rangers, will be a tricky matter to undertake outside of the sales process, so it is unclear how those pieces function in the overall.

How Much is the “Breakup Fee”?

If the Greenberg/Ryan group does not win at auction, they are entitled to compensation for all the legal work done in advance that the other bidders have not had to deal with.

Judge Lynn has altered how much the group could gain back, and the amount is dependent on their decision making process.

They can elect to:

A) 125% of the group’s costs or expenses, or;

B) $10 million before the court determines which of RBE expenses and costs are allowable.

At no point will the break-up fee be allowed to exceed $13 million

Does Lynn Have to Take the Highest Bid?

This is the $64,000 question in all of this: Does Judge Lynn have to accept the highest bid, or is this a matter of seeing that there was a fair process in play? The answers to this will come out of the bidding on Weds. and from how Lynn interprets matters when the outcome of the auction is covered during hearing on the Thursday after auction.

When Will The Club Sale Be Approved By MLB?

Having MLB’s owners vote to approve ownership transfer is part of the league’s constitution. Article V, Section 2 of the Constitution (see it here) goes on to say that three-fourths of the leagues owners must approve, “The sale or transfer of a control interest in any Club”.

The league has said that if the preferred group of Greenberg/Ryan is selected through the auction process, they can have the ownership approval completed by Aug. 12, the day that funding commitments tied to the Asset Purchase Agreement reached between the Rangers and the group is set to expire. If another bidding group comes out on top, the league has said it could be as long as 9 months (although, sources close to The Biz of Baseball repeatedly said that it would likely be 3 months), before owners would vote, citing the need for each owner to conduct due-diligence on the prospective owner.

Mark Cuban, who has verbally said that he is going to actively pursue purchase of the club through the auction, is seeking to have MLB go through the approval process no later than Aug. 16, saying that must close on or before the date. The filing does not elaborate as to why Cuban is in need of MLB’s approval by vote less than two weeks after the auction will have been completed.

Could a Marriage Occur?

Whether it’s posturing or alliances being truly forged, there has been word that Cuban could be possibly aligning himself with Jim Crane. Crane had been portrayed by the creditors as having a “significantly higher bid” when they were maneuvering to get the auction to occur. As of early Tues. sources indicate  that the two are, indeed, working together making them a formidable pairing in terms of funding. It should be noted, the league has not looked favorably upon Crane since he backed out of the purchase of the Houston Astros several years ago at the 11th hour.

What Happens if the League Does Not Approve a Bidder?

If the league does not approve the winner of the auction, one could surmise that the club would become “wards of the state”, with MLB taking over the operations of the club until the smoke had cleared in the courts. The last time this occurred was with the then Montreal Expos in Nov. of 2001. The Lenders would most assuredly challenge MLB’s league constitution saying that the bankruptcy process to pay back lenders supersedes that of the league.

Will it All be Over Soon?

The short answer is, no. In some form, the Rangers sale will continue to drag on in the courts. If the creditors lose out, they have said they will appeal to the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit in New Orleans. The basis of the appeal would be centered on Judge Lynn not granting enough time for competitive bidding. Should the Greenberg/Ryan group lose, it seems very possible the lawsuits will be filed there, as well.

But, those are likely to be actions on the periphery. The focus is really now on two dates: Aug. 12, should the Greenberg/Ryan group win, and Oct. 11 for any other groups in the hunt. On the latter, if the funding is reached in time, the focus will then move to MLB’s approval process.

So, while Tues., Weds. and Thurs. will set into motion how the ownership of the Texas Rangers could wind up, the sports and business pages will be sprinkled with the bankruptcy case, likely for many months to come.

The Braves called up RHP Chris Resop back in June, mainly in order to avoid losing him to an out clause in his contract. Resop appeared in only one Major League game, on June 15th, before missing time due to an oblique injury. Apparently, the Braves feel as if they need his 40-man roster spot, as they have requested outright waivers, according to Dave O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal Constitution.

It’s easy to get confused about what kind of waivers mean what (I know I was), so we’ll let Biz of Baseball explain outright waivers here.

A club that wishes to remove a player from its 40-man roster but keep him in its minor-league system must first place him on outright or special waivers. Outright waivers are not revocable, so a player claimed on outright waivers may not be pulled back by his original club. When a player in the middle of a guaranteed contract is claimed on waivers, the claiming club pays $20,000 and a pro-rated portion of the league minimum salary, with the original club remaining responsible for paying the rest of the money due under the contract. A club may not request outright waivers on a player with a complete no-trade clause or on a player ten-and-five rights.

So it appears that Chris Resop will be up for grabs. It’s not terribly surprising that a 28 year old with 27 innings of MLB experience and -0.2 WAR in that time is put on waivers, but Resop isn’t your typical player. He has moved from outfielder to reliever and now to starter in his time in the minor leagues, and he looked phenomenal in AAA this season. Resop struck out 87 batters in just under 80 innings for AAA Gwinnett while inducing grounders on just under 50% of his balls in play. His 2.78 FIP was deflated by a low HR rate, but it’s hard to argue with the strikeout numbers, even with a walk rate just over 3.

Unfortunately, none of the systems we use here at FanGraphs have projections for Resop except for Marcel, which projects the league average due to a nearly complete lack of MLB information. As such, it’s hard to put a concrete value on Resop, due to his lack of time as a starter and his advanced age for the league. But it’s also hard to imagine a situation where all 30 teams can’t find a 25-man roster spot for a player with a solid fastball and those kinds of numbers in AAA. If Resop clears waivers, some GMs are going to have some explaining to do.

In case you’re unaware, one of the biggest pitching prospects in Major League Baseball made his debut last night. It wasn’t met with the hype and festivity of Strasmas, but Helloween certainly did not disappoint.

Helloween, of course, refers to the Rays’ Jeremy Hellickson. Hellickson’s debut came against a depleted Twins’ lineup – without both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau – but it’s hard not to be impressed by his performance. The Twins mustered only two runs off Hellickson on three hits, a home run, and two walks. Hellickson struck out six Twins, including three against Jim Thome, one of the best power hitters in the history of the game.

Hellickson flashed three solid pitches last night (Brooks Baseball has the Pitch F/X values on the game). His fastball drew five swinging strikes and sat in the low-90s. His changeup was nearly 10 miles per hour slower, and was a nasty pitch for Hellickson, drawing six whiffs on only 26 pitches. With 15 overall strikes out of those 26 changeups it could mean that the best pitch in Hellickson’s arsenal is his changeup. He also showed a curveball, throwing a whopping 14 of 17 for strikes, even though “only” three of them were whiffs, for a still solid 17% whiff rate.

Helloween, for now, will be short lived. The Rays have already optioned Hellickson back to the minor leagues and will be bringing up first baseman Dan Johnson to shore up the bench and fill in for an injured Carlos Pena. That certainly doesn’t mean that we won’t be seeing more Hellickson as the season goes; right now, though, the Rays are set in the rotation and have no reason to stash a top prospect like this in the bullpen and possibly damage his development.

As our own R.J. Anderson reminds us, it’s only one start. But it’s one start backed up by a fantastic minor league career and an absolutely ridiculous arsenal of pitches. He’s not up for good, but he will be soon, and he could be one of the best, so get excited, fans of the Rays and fans of pitchers everywhere.

Over the weekend, the Boston Red Sox designated Jeremy Hermida for assignment. The move came less than eight months after the red Sox traded Jose Alvarez and Hunter Jones to the Marlins for the non-tender candidate and just years after Hermida seemingly broke out. Oh yes, that 2007 season when the 23-year-old Hermida hit .296/.369/.501 feels like forever ago.

That season never became the ordinary. The progress never materialized as authentic. The power he showed that season – not so much the career best 18 home runs, but the 32 doubles; he would only hit 36 doubles over the next two seasons – never returned, not even as Hermida received 171 plate appearances in Fenway Park. The potential that made Hermida one of baseball’s most promising youngsters is unfulfilled. Some blame injures – Hermida has played in more than 140 games once in his big league career – while others will blame an assortment of factors.

So, here he is, freely available with the only opportunity cost being a roster spot and the remainder of his salary. For his career, he’s been a perfectly average hitter (102 wRC+) who happens to stand in a corner outfield spot and bat left-handed. Frankly, Hermida is a prolonged power surge from being Rick Ankiel. He could help a team, and while potential is not static, he’s about to enter the period in which you would suspect will hold his statistical prime.

Not that Boston is mistaken in electing to promote Ryan Kalish. Their playoff hopes are dimming and it might be time to discover which of the prospects can help in 2011. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see some team claim Hermida and give him a chance to get back on track. Then again, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Hermida go unclaimed and eventually make his way back into Boston’s good graces either.

Hermida’s story has a pale tone right now; hopefully, it shows more color soon. For baseball’s sake.

Last week, we gave you an in depth preview of our first live event, which will be held on Saturday, August 7th in Manhattan. It was already shaping up to be a great event, but now it’s getting even better.

We’ve now added three additional guests to the roster, all of whom should add an interesting perspective to the discussion.

Jon Sciambi, currently an announcer for ESPN Radio and formerly a broadcaster for both the Florida Marlins and Atlanta Braves, will join us to share his thoughts on baseball, statistical analysis, and translating these numbers into a form that can be digested by the more casual fan. He’ll offer a unique view from someone who understands and appreciates the kinds of metrics used here at FanGraphs, but also is well aware of the need to package intelligent analysis in a way that can be consumed by people who are used to BA, HR, and RBI.

Matthew Cerrone, founder and owner of MetsBlog.com, and one of the more successful baseball bloggers on the web. He’s seen his site grow into one of the largest team-specific baseball sites on the internet, and his partnership with SNY.tv has blurred the lines between new media and old media. He has experience as a hobbyist blogger and a full-time baseball writer, and will be able to share his thoughts on the challenges of the two differing roles. Oh, and he might also have an opinion or two about the team that plays in Queens.

Sky Kalkman of Beyond The Box Score will also be joining us to share his thoughts on sabermetrics and where this type of analysis is heading. As a blogger who has been around for a while and worn a few different hats, Sky will bring his own take on the internet baseball community and where it should head in the future.

These three will join the likes of Will Leitch, Mitchel Lichtman, Alex Speier, Michael Silverman, Jonah Keri, the entire gang from River Ave Blues, and a collection of FanGraphs authors to offer up a wide variety of opinions on the game.

Additionally, we’re going to host a game-watching party for attendees to gather at a local watering hole and view that afternoon’s Boston-New York match-up together. Those who make it to the event will be invited to join us for several more hours of fun later in the afternoon.

Advanced tickets can be purchased here for $15. They will be $20 at the door, so save a little cash and buy ahead of time. You won’t regret it.