Occasionally (okay, rather frequently), I’ll see people debate the accuracies between the WAR displayed on FanGraphs and Rally’s WAR on Baseball-Reference.

Joe Posnanski speculated on the differences in a recent article about Josh Hamilton’s MVP chances:

*I could be reading this wrong, but Fangraphs seems to put more emphasis on defense. For instance, Carl Crawford’s WAR at Baseball Reference is 3.7 — his defense is worth eight runs above average. But Fangraphs credits him for 22 runs above average, which thrusts his WAR up to 5.6 and into the No. 4 spot in baseball.

I’ve seen similar sentiments echoed throughout the blogosphere and on Twitter.

In reality, on a per-player basis in 2009, UZR distributed 441 fewer runs than TZ did, excluding pitchers and catchers. And there is not a year that UZR is available where its absolute value has been higher than TZ.

In 2009, the maximum spread of UZR was +31 to -37 and TZ showed a similar spread of +31 to -34. Here’s a graph of the full spread. The blue overlap shows the points at which TZ starts showing a greater spread.

This might not be a perfect comparison in how much defense actually contributes to WAR and a better one might be how much as a whole does fielding contribute to total runs. In 2009, fielding made up about 14.2% of all positive and negative runs according to FanGraphs WAR, while Rally’s WAR made up about 15.5% of all positive and negative runs.

All in all, they are similar in how fielding is weighted as a whole. The biggest difference between the two is how each individual player’s fielding is evaluated.

File this one under pointless acquisitions.

Brad Ausmus is one of the game’s worst hitters with a .225 wOBA and somehow A.J. Ellis has actually performed worse in more plate appearances. Ellis’ wOBA is .206 and his WRC+ is 24. The Dodgers do upgrade offensively as Rod Barajas is projected for a .289 wOBA the rest of the way, matching his current wOBA production.

The offensive upgrade is legitimate. Perhaps the goal is to make these final six weeks more enjoyable for the fan base. Intentions of Barajas being on either team’s playoff squad is misplaced. The Mets have about the same chances of making the postseason as the Dodgers and since Barajas is a free agent at year’s end, he doesn’t add any value beyond this season. As cruel as it may sound, the most valuable thing about Barajas might be his projected Type-B status. If the Dodgers offer arbitration and he declines, then finds another team willing to give him a major league deal, the Dodgers would net a sandwich pick.

There’s not much else to say from the Dodgers’ side besides that this deal looks better than the head-scratching Octavio Dotel move. One has to wonder what – if anything – this signals about the Dodgers’ thoughts on their playoff hopes. No simulations or projections required to realize that being 10 down with 38 games remaining is a rather impossible task.

Josh Thole has started most of the games at backstop for the Mets lately anyways, and since he is the best catcher mentioned in this piece, that should continue to be the plan. Credit the Mets for getting some cash in return, although it’s likely an inconsequential amount that nobody will remember in a month’s time.

Now back to baseball evens that will matter to the races.

To catch up on the rest of the series, check out parts one, two, and three.

We finally arrive at the much anticipated team analysis. At the end of this post I’m providing a download of the data, so instead of rambling on about each of the teams, I’m going to focus on the top three instead. This means the Braves, Red Sox, and Angels.

The Braves’ supremacy caught me off guard. In the book Scout’s Honor, the Moneyball method – which includes doing this very kind of thing – is all but treated as a syndrome of lepers. The Braves were doing the draft pick shuffle before the Athletics ever did, though, and it shows in acquisitions throughout the decade-plus covered.

Their 12 picks average about 30% of their playing time with Atlanta. The most egregious situations involve Jose Hernandez (8%), Andy Ashby (6%), and Steve Karsay (10%). Lifers like Tom Glavine and Rafael Furcal improve the Braves’ overall standing, but how crafty does gaining picks from Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Mahay, and Danys Baez appear?

Boston may have topped Oakland as the team that most notoriously games the system. This isn’t too new of a development though. From Billy Wagner to Eric Gagne to Cliff Floyd – covered in Moneyball – the Red Sox go blow-for-blow with the Athletics’ collection that includes Damian Miller and Ray Durham. Oakland’s average is boosted by lifers like Jason Giambi, Barry Zito, and Miguel Tejada too.

The Angels’ placement actually did surprise me. They seem to do things “the right way” often as four of their 10 players were lifers until moving on. Mark Teixeira is their low tide mark and clearly the intent behind acquiring him had more to do with playoff dreams than draft picks.

Anyways, check out the complete data by clicking here.

Although it has been partially silenced by the media markets and poor teams in Florida and Washington, Josh Willingham has been one of the most consistently good players in Major League Baseball since 2006. This year, Willingham was on pace to have his best season by WAR and easily his best offensive season by wOBA and wRC+ until a knee injury requiring surgery sidelined him on Thursday. The surgery will force Willingham to miss the rest of the 2010 season.

Willingham has distinguished himself as a solid hitter thanks to above average walk rates and power to go with average contact skills. He has never been below 15 homers in a season since 2006 and has posted a walk rate above 10% every season since 2007. Willingham’s limited defense in the corners prevents him from having a truly star-level impact, but that skillset makes him a 2-3 win player.

Through 450 plate appearances in 2010, Willingham accrued 2.7 WAR, thanks to a career best 137 wRC+. Willingham’s power was down, but an increase in walk rate to 14.9% more than made up for it. ZiPS even saw new heights for Willingham, expecting the power to return and the walk rate to remain high. CHONE isn’t quite as optimstic, projecting a .261/.371/.461 line as opposed to the .263/.370/.500 line projected by ZiPS. With either of those lines, Willingham was looking at a 3.5 WAR season if he could stay healthy.

Unfortunately both for Willingham and his teams, injuries have been a factor in his career. Willingham has only reached 600 plate appearances once in his career, back in 2007. Only twice since 2006 has he reached 500 plate appearances, and the 2010 season marks the second time that he will finish between 400 and 500. Despite this, he has provided great value in these five seasons, delivering his team 12.5 WAR while making only $8.6 million dollars.

Willingham is about to become expensive, as he can probably expect something in the $7-10 million range in his third year of arbitration and then will hit the free agent market before his age 33 season. He should continue to be a solid performer for at least a few more years, but it will be interesting to see how the Nationals, who don’t look like a contender in 2011, handle Willingham. Will they attempt to sign him to an extension? Does he leave in a deadline deal, or does he bring back free agent compensation as Rizzo is attempting with Adam Dunn?

Hopefully, Willingham’s injury doesn’t impact his long term ability. If it doesn’t, whether it’s with Washington or with some other team, Willingham is a good bet to provide value in 2011 and beyond.

The good folks over at Baseball America have released their annual survey of MLB Managers in regards to which players have the “Best Tools” in Major League Baseball. This is clearly a subjective exercise, but it’s still fun to look at and see what the guys running teams from the dugout think.

A lot of the picks are as expected. Albert Pujols is the National League’s best hitter? Yup. Cliff Lee is the best pitcher in the American League? Few would argue that point. Evan Longoria and Ryan Zimmerman grade out as the two best defenders at third base in their respective leagues? UZR thinks so, too.

However, there are a few picks on there that are… curious. I thought it’d be interesting to take a look at some of the selections that might make you raise your eyebrows, and then suggest an alternative answer to the question.

Best Fastball, AL – Justin Verlander

Hardest fastball among starting pitchers? Sure. But that’s not really the question, and despite the velocity, Verlander’s fastball isn’t all its cracked up to be. Our pitch type linear weights have Verlander’s fastball worth 43.1 runs above average over his career, or about 0.4 runs per 100 pitches thrown. That’s less than either his curveball or his change-up, which are the pitches he actually gets hitters out with. Yes, his fastball sets up those other pitches, but some guys have fastballs so good that they can get guys out on their own.

Take Matt Thornton, for instance (and yes, relievers are eligible – notice that Daniel Bard and Neftali Feliz are #2 and #3 in the category). His fastball has been worth +49.6 runs in his Major League career, a half dozen runs better than Verlander’s mark. That is despite throwing 10,000 fewer total pitches than Verlander and his fastball being a pitch he relies on almost exclusively.

Thornton has thrown 83 percent fastballs in his career, and is at 91 percent this year. Despite the predictability, hitters still can’t touch him, and he’s become the game’s premier left-handed reliever. It’s even thrown at the same velocity as Verlander’s, so we can’t argue his case in that area.

Verlander has a good fastball. Thornton, though, has the best fastball in the American League.

Best Change-up, National League: Johan Santana

Santana has a fantastic change-up, no question. He’s a worthy contender for the top spot. But there’s one that stands out above the rest in baseball in terms of movement and ability to make hitters look ridiculous, and it belongs to Tim Lincecum.

To be fair, managers put him in a tie for second with Cole Hamels, so they clearly like his change-up as well. But I’m not sure they like it enough. For fun, take a look at Lincecum’s pitch selection in any two strike count:

0-2: 40% change-ups
1-2: 50% change-ups
2-2: 51% change-ups
3-2: 45% change-ups

Want to know why Lincecum is still running sky high strikeout rates despite losing his fastball? Because he puts hitters away with the nasty change-up, and that pitch has only gotten better over the years. He still throws it at 84 MPH, and while it appears to have fastball properties, it falls off the table while the hitter is swinging over the top.

Quantified, the pitch type linear weights suggest that Lincecum’s change-up last year alone was worth more than Santana’s over the last three years combined. In his prime with Minnesota, Santana’s change was the best in the game. Now, though, its just one of the best, and it takes a back seat to the one from the wiry kid in San Francisco.

Best Defensive Outfielder, AL, second place – Torii Hunter

Ahh, reputations. They don’t die easily, even when the player himself says “yeah, I’m not that good anymore, and I should move to right field now.” Managers just love them some Torii Hunter. I won’t bother going into much detail here, because, well, I think everyone realizes that Hunter hasn’t been a good defensive outfielder for quite a while now.

The series ends here.

Links: ALC | NLC | ALW | NLW | ALE | NLE |

ATLANTA BRAVES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Matt Lipka, Texas HS, ss, 35th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 6 college, 2 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 2/8.

Thoughts: The Braves got everyone inked and in uniform quickly, so rather than list the notable performances so far, I figured it would be easier to make this section longer, and integrate the performances in the post. Drafting without a first round pick this year, the Braves did have a supplemental first and an extra second round pick. The team chose a signable player at every turn, and was among the draft’s smallest spenders in all of MLB. It’s all pretty unexciting stuff, but these are the Braves, and you just figure their scouting department has to know something that we don’t. They always seem to.

This year, it appears the onus was getting hitters in the system that make consistent contact with the baseball. To wit, first round pick has a 11.3 K% in the complex league (.378 wOBA), Todd Cunningham is at 12.5% in the Sally League (.346 wOBA), and Andrelton Simmons at 6.2% in the Appy League (.301 wOBA). This trend continues on, and it’s consistent through all the left-side infielders this team drafted in the top ten rounds. The Braves also drafted small school pitcher Dave Filak, who has a 2.97 FIP in 22 Appy League innings. Atlanta’s draft isn’t the most diverse in talent sets, but they don’t seem worried about it. This seems like a team simply hoping that out of quantity comes quality.

FLORIDA MARLINS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Christian Yelich, California HS, 1B, 23rd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 7/3.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 6/4.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s earliest pick with regular playing time so far has been fifth-round pick Robert Morey. The Virginia alum has made nine starts in the South Atlantic League, running a 3.49 FIP through 31 innings. The team isn’t really getting strikeouts or command from Rett Varner, but the guy has a 1.54 ERA because he’s getting a lot of groundballs. You have to go all the way to the tenth round to find a hitter with serious playing time, and it’s Missouri’s Aaron Senne. In 48 games in the NYP League, Senne is hitting .302/.386/.391.

Thoughts: The Marlins weren’t big spenders, but that shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. They were sure to sign first round pick Christian Yelich, bought third rounder J.T. Realmuto from an Oklahoma State commitment, and made sure Mark Canha didn’t head back to California. Yelich is obviously the one to watch, but don’t buy his listed position of outfield. He has one of the worst arms I’ve ever seen from a touted prospect, and he’ll be at first base unless they completely re-teach him to throw. He’s going to hit, though. The added pitching should move quickly, as Rob Rasmussen and Robert Morey were among Division I’s most polished. The Marlins will get some big league help from this draft, but I don’t think they have added a star.

NEW YORK METS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Matt Harvey, UNC, rhp, 7th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 8 college, 1 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The one sticking to me is Matt den Dekker, a senior sign from Florida who is 11 games into full season ball, and hitting .390/.468/.512 during that time. If he’s not the story, fourth-round pick Cory Vaughn is, hitting .308/.399/.556 in the New York-Penn League. Vaughn’s power never came as scouts thought in college, but it certainly is showing itself in short-season ball. As Carson Cistulli points out, however, his defense might not be so good. The highest of the hitters drafted, Blake Forsythe, is playing the worst, hitting .226/.298/.321 between the complex and NYP leagues.

Thoughts: If you listed the Mets picks in order of who received the largest bonuses, their top two guys (Harvey and Forsythe) would top the list, followed by 24th rounder Erik Goeddel, fourth-round pick Cory Vaughn, and sixth-round pick Greg Peavy. Goeddel obviously sticks out, and it will be interesting if the Mets are content to use him as a reliever going forward. But any way you slice it, the team went college-heavy here, going with big Division I players with the first 6 picks. There is some upside to be found there, though, so I don’t hate this draft for the Mets. But that really speaks to my optimism about Vaughn, Goeddel and den Dekker.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jesse Biddle, Philly HS, lhp, 27th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 7 college, 2 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Biddle has been a nice story in his debut in the Gulf Coast League. Despite a nasty outing in his last start, the lefty still has a 2.51 FIP in 33.1 innings. His 41-to-9 K/BB ratio is really encouraging. Or, at least it’s better than talking about the NYP performances of the team’s college picks: Percy Garner (two bad starts), Cameron Rupp (.326 wOBA) and Bryan Morgado (2.09 WHIP) have all been not-so-good.

Thoughts: Biddle was the only Phillies draft pick to make more than $500,000, so as a result, he’s the key to this draft. The team did go to 300K on four players, three of which came after the 20th round: Kevin Walter, Jonathan Musser, and Brian Pointer were all bought out of college commitments. The college picks were not my favorite, in the slightest, but Biddle really does have the potential to put this class on his back. Philadelphia has done a great job scouting high school pitchers in recent years, and it looks like the trend continued this year.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Bryce Harper, Nevada JC, RF/C, 1st overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 8 college, 1 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Rick Hague had a miserable last season at Rice this year, but moving to pro ball and wood bats have been pretty good for him. Playing mostly in the full season South Atlantic League, Hague is hitting .298/.371/.426 through 105 plate appearances. This is better than the performance of the short-season college guys: Kevin Keyes (.210/.356/.284), Cole Leonida (.143/.226/.179) and Jason Martinson (.236/.336/.328).

Thoughts: I suppose it’s fitting to end this series here, on Harper. It’s kind of intuitive that the team that drafts the best player should have the highest rated draft, but it’s not always the case: oftentimes, paying up for the most expensive player gives teams an excuse to not take any more chances. This was not so with the Nationals. This team also broke slot to sign three pitchers that all seem excellent: Sammy Solis, A.J. Cole and Robbie Ray. Maybe the team didn’t add any offense besides Harper in this draft (though if Hague hits, he was once considered first-round caliber), but with Harper, I’m not sure you need to. Finding the pitching balance to match their offensive addition is really what makes this draft stand out.

Favorite NL East Draft: Washington. Least Favorite: Florida.

In 2006, Anibal Sanchez burst on the scene as a 22-year-old, throwing a no-hitter and posting a 2.83 ERA in his rookie season, though his xFIP was two runs higher than his ERA. He never really had the chance to regress, though, as he went down with a shoulder strain in 2007 that was eventually revealed to be a torn labrum. Surgery and recurrences of arm problems knocked him out for most of the 2008 and the first half of the 2009 season, though he pitched pretty decently to finish the season.

This year, Sanchez came into camp 30 pounds lighter and determined to stay healthy. His first six starts were pretty mediocre, however, as he continued to struggle with his command and was only running a 5.35 K/9.

But as the season has gone on, Sanchez has only gotten stronger, as you can see in his velocity chart below.

Velocity, however, isn’t the only place he’s showing improvement. Over his last five starts, Sanchez has racked up 36 strikeouts in 32 innings, giving him a 10.13 K/9 that is ninth best in baseball over the last 30 days, and puts him in a virtual tie with Roy Halladay, Ubaldo Jimenez, and Ricky Nolasco. As his stuff has ticked up, so has his ability to blow hitters away, and the version of Sanchez taking the mound for the Marlins right now is the best we’ve ever seen him.

Josh Johnson generates most of the headlines, but he’s got some pretty good company in that Florida rotation. A healthy Sanchez, and one with a fastball that is trending up, is a nice addition to the Marlins core.

The series continues.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Manny Machado, Florida HS, ss, 3rd overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 4 college, 4 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Not much of the draft class has started playing, but the team’s Aberdeen affiliate (in the New York-Penn League) has two names to which you should pay attention. Fourth-round pick Trent Mummey has been a regular since being drafted, and will reach about 300 professional plate appearances by the time the summer ends. For now, he has posted a .349 wOBA, with more ability shown in plate discipline than power potential. The team recently added a solid reliever in Clayton Schrader, the Orioles 10th round pick, who received an above-slot bonus to deter him from going to Oklahoma. Schrader has pitched five scoreless innings for the IronBirds, striking out 6.

Thoughts: Without a second-round pick this season, the Orioles were able to not worry about bonus demands from their third overall pick, Manny Machado. Despite his Twitter jokings with Bryce Harper, it was clear Machado would always sign, and this draft class would always be defined by his play. The team, however, does have six other players that earned more than a quarter-million bonus, including their eighth, ninth and, tenth-round picks. I even really like Matt Bywater, the seventh-round lefty from Pepperdine that signed for pretty cheap. This draft doesn’t have a sure thing, maybe with the exception of Mummey, but it is loaded with potential.

BOSTON RED SOX
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Anthony Ranaudo, LSU, rhp, 39th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 6/4.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s top two picks, Kolbrin Vitek and Bryce Brentz, have been regulars in the Lowell Spinners lineup for awhile. Vitek has been much better, posting a .379 wOBA while overcoming a 29.5 K%. Brentz hasn’t been able to overcome his bad contact skills, hitting .187/.252/.320 for Lowell. The only other draftee with significant playing time so far is fifth-round Puerto Rican outfielder Henry Ramos, playing in the Gulf Coast League. Ramos has thrived in Fort Myers, hitting .319/.373/.471 in his first stateside campaign.

Thoughts: This wasn’t the most expensive draft of any team, but it was probably the deepest: six players signed for more than $750,000, which includes two college hitters (Vitek and Brentz), two college pitchers, and two high school hitters. Ranaudo demanded the most money, and he earned it with a fantastic summer in the Cape Cod League. I really like sixth-round pick Kendrick Perkins, and seventh rounder Chris Hernandez was a favorite of the boys behind CollegeSplits.com. This was a team aware of high school pitchers who have historically been the least valuable commodity on draft day, and stockpiled every other type of asset. It should pay huge dividends for the farm system.

NEW YORK YANKEES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Mason Williams, Florida HS, of, 145th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 3/7.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Much of this class is just starting to get their feet wet in pro ball, but surprise first rounder Cito Culver has been a regular in complex league play. Culver has held his own, hitting .269/.320/.363, and since July 22, has hit safely in 15 out of 19 games. Like any teenage shortstops, he’s been prone to mistakes (13 errors in 41 games) and offspeed stuff (25.6 K%), but there has been nothing about which to worry.

Thoughts: While the Red Sox clearly used their huge resources to put together the foundation of a great farm system in this year’s draft, the Yankees spendings were more middle-of-the-pack. Mason Williams was the only player the Yankees eclipsed seven figures on, and he’s a guy that doesn’t profile to hit for power. I like fifth-round pick Tommy Kahnle, but the crux of this draft are five high school players that the team spent big on. If two of them become trade-able commodities, then this draft has to be considered a success.

TAMPA BAY RAYS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Josh Sale, Washington HS, of, 17th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 4 college, 5 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Both of Tampa’s short-season affiliates have had some interesting contributions. The complex league team has been assigned both first-round pick Justin O’Conner and third-round pick Ryan Brett, and their performances have been the opposite of what you might think. Brett has been amazing in 19 games, hitting .338/.410/.456 (.420 wOBA), with “just” four errors. O’Conner has struggled in 169 PA, hitting .215/.310/.354, struggling mostly with his contact rate. In the New York-Penn League, the Hudson Valley affiliate has the team’s second-round picks: Jake Thompson and Derek Dietrich. Thompson’s impeccable command has led to a 2.26 FIP through 35 innings, though his 6.94 K/9 leaves something to be desired. Dietrich isn’t showing the same power he did in college, and his 4.8 BB% in 33 games isn’t good, but he’s still managed a .288/.340/.432 line.

Thoughts: I really like this draft, and it shows you don’t have to break the bank to impress. Sale and O’Conner are really good value for where they were drafted in the first round, and I really believe in Sale’s bat. The team spent equally on its two college arms, one a safe innings-eater (Thompson) and one a volatile hard thrower (Jesse Hahn). They took some chances later in the draft, and have the farm system to afford taking chances on high school hitters. The balance probably leans a little too far for my liking, but I still think the Rays did well.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Deck McGuire, Georgia Tech, rhp, 11th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 3 college, 6 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The Blue Jays have been cautious with their two supplemental first round high school arms, Aaron Sanchez and Noah Syndergaard, both of whom are pitching in the complex league. While both are “starting” games there, they are averaging just 2.45 innings per start. Both have done well, but the star is Sanchez, who has a fantastic groundball rate and a 13.5 K/9. Kellen Sweeney, the team’s second-round pick out of Erik Manning’s town of Cedar Rapids, has had an encouraging start with the same team. In just 36 plate appearances, Ryan’s little brother has walked 10 times.

Thoughts: I love this draft. It appears to be pitcher heavy because the first four picks were all hurlers, but the team’s second-highest bonus getter was fifth-round pick Dickie Joe Thon. Toronto gave Thon $1.5 million to not attend Rice, and he becomes a perfect balance to the “safe” Deck McGuire pick. The team invested heavily in pitching, no doubt, and I really like what Aaron Sanchez has showed so far. But there is hitting to be found here, like Sweeney, Christopher Hawkins, and the two shortstops given above-slot money in the middle rounds. Toronto has worked hard in the last year, both on the international and domestic fronts, at rebuilding their farm system, and I think it will start paying dividends soon.

Favorite AL East Draft: Boston. Honorable Mention: Toronto. Least Favorite: New York.

Update: Tangotiger pointed out to me that fans scouting report numbers for Holliday and Wilson looked off. Turns out I was calculating players who switched teams for the Fans Scouting Report incorrectly and as a result Matt Holliday and Jack Wilson are now adjusted accordingly and the tables below have been updated.

Earlier this week I ran the the Aggregate Defensive Evaluations (ADE) on 2009 shortstops. For those who missed it, this is an attempt to take 5 different fielding metrics (UZR, Fans Scouting Report, John Dewan’s DRS, Total Zone, and Total Zone with Location), put them on the same scale and then see which player’s defensive abilities we are fairly certain about and those which we are not.

In response to some comments, I’ve added a weighted average and standard deviation. This excludes standard Total Zone in favor of TZL. It also weights UZR, DRS, and TZL 3 times each and then the Fans Scouting Report only 1 time. (These are the last two columns)

It’s probably not much of a surprise that Carl Crawford sits atop the list. UZR has actually rated him as 56 runs above average the past three years, more than double the next closest player. Same goes for pretty much all the defensive metrics.

Matt Holliday I would say has the highest level of disagreement of any player. The Fans Scouting Report hates him, DRS loves him, UZR thinks he’s above average, and Total Zone thinks he’s just average. I’d consider the inconsistency with Holliday different than Juan Rivera’s situation where there’s also a high level of disagreement. In Rivera’s case at least all metrics agree he’s average or better.

Ryan Braun is also pretty interesting in that the Fans rated him as +15, while all the other defensive models thought he was well below average. This season Ryan Braun continues to be rated poorly by the defensive models. It will be interesting to see what the fans think of him next season.

I’d still consider these reports a bit of a work in progress, but for those interested, here’s the shortstops again, but this time with the weighted averages column:

At 71-50, the Atlanta Braves are sitting pretty in the playoff picture. Bobby Cox’s club holds a 2.5 game lead over the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East, and CoolStandings gives the team an 85 percent chance of playing well into October. One of the reasons that the Braves sit atop their division is the strong work of the bullpen. With a collective 3.59 xFIP, Atlanta’s relief corps ranks second in the majors, trailing only the San Diego Padres. Greybeards Billy Wagner (39 years old) and Takashi Saito (40) are dominating, but a little-known 25-year-old has broken through to give the Braves a trio of terrifying ‘pen arms.

Heading into 2010, Jonny Venters barely made a blip on the prospect radar. The lefty, a 30th-round draft-and-follow pick in the 2003 draft, took the last spot on Baseball America’s list of the top 30 prospects in the Braves’ system. John Sickels didn’t include Venters on his top 20 list, nor did he place Jonny among the next batch of “Grade C” prospects missing the top 20. At the time, it would have been hard to criticize BA and Sickels. After all, Venters’ minor league career was marred by injuries (Tommy John wiped out his 2006 season, and elbow tendinitis put a damper on his 2008 campaign) and control issues. In 71 starts and 23 relief stints spread over 422.2 innings, Venters struck out 6.6 batters per nine frames and issued 4.1 BB/9. According to Minor League Splits, his minor league FIP since 2005 sits at 4.07.

Venters had some traits working in his favor, though. Baseball America noted that his fastball ranged from 88-94 MPH, and that his slider was a plus offering. Also, Venters burned worms to the tune of a 57.7 GB% in the minors since ’05. After a short stint at Triple-A Gwinnett to begin the year, he was called up by the Braves in mid-April. Venters has been a revelation as a full-time reliever.

Unleashing his 94-95 MPH fastball more than three-quarters of the time and also touting a mid-80’s slider, Venters has punched out 67 hitters in 61.2 innings pitched (9.78 K/9). His 14.9% swinging strike rate ranks sixth among qualified MLB relievers, bested only by Joaquin Benoit, Luke Gregerson, Hong-Chih Kuo, Rafael Betancourt, and Matt Thornton. Jonny’s 65.6% overall contact rate is second among ‘pen members (Carlos Marmol is first). He also places in the top 20 in outside swing percentage, at 35.3%. When he’s not inducing swings and misses, Venters has induced hitters to chop the ball into the dirt. His ground ball rate is 64.3%, a rate topped by teammate Peter Moylan, Ryan Webb, and Blaine Boyer.

Venters is still walking his fair share of batters (3.94 BB/9, 3.65 BB/9 without two intentionals), and he has certainly received some breaks with a .252 BABIP and a 3.4 HR/FB%. But even if Venters’ ERA (1.17) is wacky-low, his 3.07 xFIP cracks the top 20 among relievers. Cox has gradually called upon his rookie southpaw in more crucial situations. Here are Venters’ Leverage Index marks by month, measuring the importance of his appearances by inning, score and base-out state (one is average):

April: 0.2
May: 0.39
June: 1.18
July: 1.35
August: 1.63

Relief performance is notoriously fickle, and it would be rash to declare that this is Venters’ talent level moving forward. But he doesn’t look like a fluke. If Venters stays healthy, the Braves might not have to search far and wide if Wagner does decide to call it quits.