Another August deal went down involving the National League Central yesterday, this time involving the St. Louis Cardinals and the Houston Astros. The Astros sent Pedro Feliz north to Missouri, and will receive David Carpenter, a 25 year old reliever who is having a solid season for the Cardinals High-A team.

Carpenter is, simply put, not a loss for St. Louis. Tim McCullough of Future Redbirds wrote of Carpenter last night:

For David, he’s likely in a better place now. He’s got legitimate relief arm but he’s more of a fringe setup type than a closer (and that’s a pretty rosy assessment). The Astros system is barren as opposed to the Cardinals relief system that has guys like Adam Reifer, Eduardo Sanchez, Casey Mulligan, Blake King, Francisco Samuel, etc. in front of him.

A guy whose ceiling is a “fringe setup guy” isn’t much of a cost. Sure, it’s good for Ed Wade that he managed to rid himself of Feliz while adding a living, breathing human being with multiple working body parts, including an arm that can throw a baseball, but that’s not the real story here.

The real story is how Pedro Feliz can possibly fit into the Cardinals plans for success. The Cardinals are now 3.5 games behind Cincinnati, thanks to a six game winning streak by Cincinnati combined by a four game losing streak in St. Louis. The Cardinals are certainly looking to win games now, and there is a very legitimate question as to whether Feliz may actually hurt in that regard.

The Astros decision to sign a marginal player such as Feliz was questionable at the time. He was a no-bat, all-glove third baseman who, at age 35, could see either one or both of those factors drop dramatically. The simultaneous collapse of both sides of Feliz’s game has resulted in possibly the worst player in baseball. Feliz is walking less, his power is down, and his BABIP has fallen to .232. Given Feliz’s advanced age, the decline in his other skills, his career .267 BABIP, and his 4% drop in line drive rate, that BABIP doesn’t appear to be bad luck, it just appears to be a complete lack of Major League ability. Throw in a glove that has gone from elite to poor – his UZR, RZR, and TZ are all far, far below their excellent career marks – and the results is a player worth -1.5 WAR in just over 300 plate appearances, making him the worst position player in baseball this season.

There’s simply no reason to think that Feliz and his completely broken skillset provides any sort of upgrade over Felipe Lopez, or anybody around MLB, for that matter. Tyler Greene likely would’ve been a superior option in house, if only for his glove and the fact that he has shown some life in AAA. Aaron Miles, despite being the embodiment of the replacement player, is probably better than Feliz. Craig Counsell would have been a better option off of the waiver wire.

By adding Feliz to the roster, the St. Louis Cardinals have simply made themselves worse. He doesn’t appear to be a capable defensive replacement. What little bat he once had has completely evaporated. Feliz may be the worst player in baseball who has received playing time with any sort of regularity. There’s a chance that Feliz reaches some sort of respectability in St. Louis much as there is a chance of any baseball player having a good month, but that certainly doesn’t mean that we should expect it. The Cardinals job of catching the Reds is at least as hard as it was at this time yesterday. The addition of Feliz may have made it harder.

Yesterday, in these electronic pages, I suggested that a daily feature might be an appropriate addition to the site. In particular, I noted that, owing to the pretty serious amount of content we’re generating here these days, it might make sense to include a digest of the previous day’s posts.

What follows represents a second attempt at the daily feature. Mostly what’s different is, per Joe Tetreault’s advice, I assigned each of the previous day’s articles to subject headings (which, in some cases, I took liberties in defining).

Moreover, if I’ve done it correctly, these links should bring you directly to the relevant portions of this post:

Yesterday at FanGraphs
Notable Tweets
One Night Only: Weekend Edition

As yesterday, feel free to make suggestions in the comment section, which I’ll read with bated breath.

Yesterday at FanGraphs
File Under: Current Events, Ruminations On
Roger Clemens Indicted; Steroid Era on Trial by Alex Remington

File Under: Draft Coverage, Present Day
2010 Draft Review: AL West by Bryan Smith
2010 Draft Review: NL West by Bryan Smith

File Under: Draft Coverage, Past Day
First Round Compensation (Part One) by R.J. Anderson
First Round Compensation (Part Two) R.J. Anderson

File Under: Player Analysis, Game-Specific
Just Octavio Being Octavio by Jack Moore

File Under: Player Analysis, General
Niese a Nice Find for the Mets by David Golebiewski

File Under: Transaction Analysis, Ad Hoc
Brad Hawpe Hits Free Agency a Few Weeks Early by Joe Pawlikowski

File Under: Transaction Analysis, Ex Post Facto
Free Agent Signings That Worked by Dave Cameron

Notable Tweets
From AnswerDave Syzyn Wyldmyn: “I’m in Rawjah Clemens’ jury box.”

From KenTremendous: Seems like Roger Clemens is in the twilight of his “not-in-jail” career. http://es.pn/boRvZT

Read the rest of this entry »

In part two we looked at the data and found that the system fails miserably if the goal is to compensate for homegrown players. In this part, let’s talk about what could be done.

At this point, there are three options:
1) Leave it as is.
2) Get rid of compensation completely.
3) Tweak the system.

The first two seem completely unrealistic, which means tweaking the system is the only plausible solution. One of the better ideas I’ve heard about this came from our own Joe Pawlikowski. Joe’s idea was simply to downgrade the compensation for those players who spend little time with their new team. Bring back the Type-C classification if you need a new name.

Instead of first round compensation, give these teams a pick after the second or third rounds, which does not completely punish teams for employing journeymen or rental players, but it places a tier or two in between those who are losing homegrown talent and those who are losing a player who barely played with them. Billy Wagner with the Red Sox comes to mind.

I’m not sure if there’s a silver bullet answer that magically cures the ailments, but the system appears broken enough that just about any kind of reform should represent an upgrade. The draft compensation system is no longer a market inefficiency used by insightful teams. Over the timeline each team but the Pirates raked in at least one first round compensation pick, and the teams that netted the most were the Braves, Red Sox, Angels, Athletics, Diamondbacks, and Rangers. The bottom five saw a jam of teams with three picks, leaving the Rays as the only team with fewer than two. The Royals, Rockies, Phillies, Orioles, Nationals, Marlins, and Astros held three apiece.

With the exception of the Phillies and Rockies, those lower teams usually do not field contenders. The upper teams do. Is the purpose of the draft not to help raise the lower team’s talent levels? And yet, baseball’s compensation rules are directly contradicting the entire purpose of the draft by supplying the better teams with more high-end picks than the teams that need them. Given the inherent variability of draft picks working out, sometimes all it takes is more ammo to hit the lottery.

We’ll examine the top pick fetchers and who gamed the system best later on, but for now let’s leave it on this note: the Yankees held as many first round compensatory picks as the sum of Rays, Orioles, Royals, and Pirates picks.

For background information on the purpose and methodology please check out part one.

Between the 2000 and 2010 drafts, 171 players netted teams a collective 219 first round compensatory picks; or roughly 15 players per offseason. The average percentage of plate appearances or innings pitched spent with the benefiting teams comes in at 37.9%. Meaning, simply, that fewer than 50% of the playing time is coming with the teams collecting those draft picks.

Now, this data is skewed a bit. As mentioned in part one, this focused only on first round picks. Including second round picks might raise that number towards 50%, but maybe not. This look also makes no effort to separate first time free agents (in the truest sense) from those veterans who qualified for free agency compensation multiple times through the timeline. I do not believe the latter to be a fatal mistake because the entire point is to show how flawed the first round compensation system is, and those free agent lifers play a big part in the proceedings.

I wanted to get a feel for what establishing a playing time threshold on these compensation picks would do to the supply of the picks and the number of players who would qualify. Starting with the nearly impossible number of 95% or higher returns 33 players and 47 picks; note that the picks/players average rises because most of the elite players spend their time with one team before leaving. These are the cases like Jim Thome and Manny Ramirez with the Indians, Alex Rodriguez with the Mariners, and Troy Percival with the Angels amongst many, many others.

Moving the bar down to 75% yields 35 players and 49 picks or about an identical sum to the 95% rate; meaning only two players fell in between 75-95%. Drop it to 50% and you arrive at 49 players and 70 picks. Go further down to 30% and we’re at 70 players and 95 picks. That’s still less than half the original player and pick totals. Flip this to players who recorded 20% or less and the totals are 81 players and 100 picks. That’s right, you get more players and picks from the 20% and under crowd than the 30% and over group.

Go even lower, to 10% or less, and you’ll find 41 players and 51 picks. Less than 5%? 20 players and 25 picks. Remember, we only had 35 players and 49 picks from 75% or more, and here, on the very end of the scale, the numbers match up fairly. Here’s a chart that should convey some of these numbers in a more digestible and comparable form (Note: players are counted in each appropriate group so the total sum of the 95%+ , 75%+, etc. will exceed the actual sum):

If the league required that players had to spend at least 25% of their career playing time up through the previous season with a team to receive first round compensation, we would’ve essentially halved the actual player and pick pool. That is incredible and signals that the system fails miserably if the goal is to assist with homegrown losses.

It’s been a fairly long time coming. On the one hand, there was the Mitchell Report and other leaked documents naming baseball players who had used banned or illegal substances; on the other hand, some of those players gave sworn Congressional testimony in which they claimed they had never used. So, in an announcement that likely brought few fans to tears, Roger Clemens was indicted today on charges of obstructing Congress, making false statements, and perjury.

Craig Calcaterra and David Pinto write that Clemens brought this on himself: by protesting the Mitchell Report too loudly, he practically dared Congress to subpoena him. Barry Bonds, of course, was already indicted in 2007, and his trial is scheduled for March; Clemens’s trial will likely have a similarly long wait.

Of course, this is what Congress wanted. An indictment was the inevitable result — and a likely goal — of Congress’s decision to subpoena testimony from athletes that George Mitchell accused of cheating. It was a circus in search of a gotcha. The Mitchell Report unearthed a number of names, but it neither revealed the full extent of steroid and PED use in baseball, nor the actual effect of steroid and PED use on a baseball player. The testimony made Sammy Sosa, Mark McGwire, and Rafael Palmeiro look foolish, but it didn’t offer much more than an opportunity for members of Congress to indicate their disapproval.

Of course, there’s plenty of disapproval to go around. Thanks to Major League Baseball’s hypocritical approach to steroids, players had numerous incentives to use, while owners and media alike chose to ignore the actual fact of use. (Most media, at least. The Washington Post’s Thomas Boswell fingered Jose Canseco as a steroid-user back in 1988.) George Mitchell somehow spent $20 million of the taxpayers’ MLB’s money on a report that raised more questions than it answered. And the shrill, howling condemnation by talking heads and columnists is about as unlistenable as Roseanne Barr singing the National Anthem.

Calcaterra believes Clemens stands a good chance of getting off, because Brian McNamee has no credibility, and he also believes the indictment shouldn’t affect Clemens’s Hall of Fame chances, because after all it was the Steroid Era, and his success came against players who used too. Of course, that sort of rational argument would be a lot easier if the baseball community ever got around to having the conversation about steroids — what they are, what they do, and why people take them — that we’ve been avoiding since the 1980s.

Interestingly, if it takes as long to bring Clemens to trial as it has taken with Bonds, the Rocket could be Hall of Fame-eligible by the time he’s in court: this is the third season since his last game in 2007, and the Feds have taken more than three years to bring Bonds to trial. So the government’s competence in bringing the case could have a great deal to do with whether he gets in on the first ballot. But it’s hard to imagine that even a jail term could keep him out of the Hall completely.

So what did we learn? We learned that Congress believes that baseball is one of the most important issues of domestic policy in America. We learned that you shouldn’t thumb your nose at George Mitchell. And we learned that Clemens’s attorney, Rusty Hardin — who has been described as “slicker ‘n deer guts on a doorknob” — gave his client some really, really bad advice.

So here’s some good advice: don’t lie to Congress, and don’t bother holding your breath for the trial.

The series continues.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Ty Linton, North Carolina HS, of, 421st overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 7/3.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team’s two highest drafted signees, second rounder J.R. Bradley and third rounder Robby Rowland, have really struggled in the Pioneer League. Bradley’s ERA (7.46) is worse than Rowland’s (6.30), but neither has a single solid peripheral statistic … Fourth round reliever Kevin Munson has started his career in the Midwest League successfully, allowing just two runs in 14 innings with South Bend, striking out 13.

Thoughts: While some have floated out the notion that Arizona drafted Barret Loux knowing that they’d get the seventh pick in 2011, it’s simply not true. Arizona liked Loux in that spot, but his medicals couldn’t justify a selection. Luckily, the team built in some insurance in the 14th round, drafting two-way star Ty Linton. Between paying him over one million, and paying eighth-round pick Tyler Green 750K, the team does take home some early round talent out of this draft. The majority of their risks came with high upside pitchers, so replacing Loux is a real possibility.

COLORADO ROCKIES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Kyle Parker, Clemson, of, 26th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 8 college, 1 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Chad Bettis was never consistent at Texas Tech, but he’s been consistently brilliant for the Rockies NWL affiliate. In 10 appearances, Bettis has a 1.12 ERA, 1.86 BB/9 and 0.00 HR/9. He’s getting groundballs at a 2.2-to-one clip, and looks like a brilliant gamble … In one-third the time, fifth-round pick Josh Slaats has been just as good. In 13.2 innings, the big bodied product of hawaii has struck out 23 and walked just 2 … It’s noteworthy that 15th round bonus baby Will Swanner made his professional debut in the Pioneer League yesterday, going 2-for-5 while playing DH.

Thoughts: The Rockies deal with top pick Kyle Parker will allow him to play his senior season at quarterback for the Tigers this fall, and then the team hopes his itch for the gridiron is satisfied. It should be the case, and you’d think that focusing only on baseball next season will allow his abilities to shine through more than ever. Supplemental round pick Peter Tago was a favorite of Marc Hulet, and it’s easy to understand why: maybe no one in this draft throws easier. I think they’ll definitely find a regular contributor out of Tago, Bettis or Slaats. I also like the gamble on Swanner, a catcher they bought away from Pepperdine. This is a nice and diverse haul for the Rockies.

LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Zach Lee, Texas HS, rhp, 28th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Of the four first five rounders that have started playing, the two high school guys are in the complex league, the two college hitters in the Pioneer League. High school pitcher Ralston Cash has done well for himself, with a 3.68 ERA over seven starts, and enough movement on his pitches to post a good groundball rate (1.82 G/F) and he hasn’t allowed a home run. He’s joined on the team by James Baldwin (son of the ex-Major Leaguer), who strikes out constantly, but has put up an athletic .272/.321/.367 … Over in the Pioneer League, Jake Lemmerman has been brilliant. The Duke shortstop and fifth-round pick is hitting .355/.424/.560 in the hitting environment, with 28 extra-base hits and 22 walks in 200 at-bats! Third rounder Leon Landry is doing his best to keep pace, hitting .356/.397/.529 while he learns to translate his great speed into something useful on the baseball field.

Thoughts: Herein you will find my mea culpa. I teased Dodgers fans quite a bit in June, as it certainly appeared the team drafted Zach Lee without an intention to sign him. I thought maybe they’d get sixth-round pick Kevin Gausman for above slot, but the $5 million it’d take for Lee? No way. I WAS WRONG. Kudos to the Dodgers for striking a unique agreement, using Lee’s status as a football as an excuse to spread the money over five years. The Dodgers even went above slot twice more, on 11th rounder Joc Pederson and 26th rounder Scott Schebler. But make no mistake, this draft is all about Lee. And, it’s a good thing, because Lee was probably the fourth or fifth best player in the class. A steal at any price.

SAN DIEGO PADRES
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: John Barbato, Miami HS, rhp, 184th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 6 college, 2 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Highest drafted signee Jedd Gyorko has enjoyed a really nice start to his career, with 52 games spread evenly between the Northwest and Midwest leagues. He’s hitting a combined .335/.396/.495, with a wOBA north of .400. On the opposite train was fifth-round pick Rico Noel, who began with some terrible Midwest League struggles before being demoted to the Northwest League, where he’s currently hitting .297/.453/.365.

Thoughts: It’s pretty hard to not sign your first round pick, especially when it’s in the top ten, and still have a good draft. I think this haul can work out okay for the Padres, but it won’t take the sting out of losing Whitson. His father said yesterday that Karsten’s dream has been to play college baseball, and this really makes you question the scouting done by the Padres: judging the signability of potential draftees is one of a scout’s largest jobs. But moving away from that, the team did build themselves some insurance with sixth-round pick John Barbato. While some certainly preferred unsigned seventh rounder A.J. Vanegas to Barbato, the Padres had to land one of the two. This draft needs Gyorko to become a regular, and either Barbato or Zach Cates to contribute on the mound. It could happen, but it wouldn’t excuse dropping the ball with Whitson.

SAN FRANCISCO
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Gary Brown, Cal State Fullerton, of, 24th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Signees: 7 college, 1 HS, 2 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: It’s a tiny sample of a 21-year-old pitcher beating on high school kids, but fifth-round pick Richard Hembree has struck out 15 of the 28 batters he’s faced in the complex league. He’s rocking a negative FIP! Four of the team’s first 10 picks can be found on the NWL Salem-Keizer Volcanoes: Carter Jurica, Seth Rosin, Chris Lofton and Dan Burkhart. The latter is the team’s newest arrival, but he’s been excellent since moving up from the complex league. Jurica, the highest draft pick of the four, has been the worst (.291 wOBA).

Thoughts: This is pretty unexciting stuff. Gary Brown was one of the first round’s most volatile players, and while a lot of the numbers guys don’t like him because he never walks, you can’t write him off just for that. He’s just a guy whose value will be tied closely to his BABIP and the consistency of his defense. If he succeeds in those categories, he can still be a viable big leaguer. But after Brown, what is there? The team paid up a bit for Virginia outfielder Jarret Parker, another risky college outfielder, and sophomore-eligible lefty Mike Kickham. The other picks were all inexpensive, and typically low-upside college hitters. There is no star potential in this draft; just a couple average-ish outfielders and a reliever (Hembree?) here or there.

Favorite NL West Draft: Colorado Rockies. Least Favorite: San Francisco.

When we heard that the Rockies placed OF Brad Hawpe on waivers, it came as no surprise. Most players on a 40-man roster are placed on waivers in August, since the process presents no downside for a team. If another team claims the player, the original team can just pull him back. But a player like Hawpe, with a $7.5 million salary, will almost certainly clear and become eligible for a trade with any team. Earlier this week we learned that Hawpe cleared. But the news that broke last night, that the Rockies had released their right fielder, came as quite the surprise.

For the past few years Hawpe has been a cornerstone of the Rockies’ offense. From 2006 through 2009 he finished third on the team in wOBA, with that production never falling below .376. Unfortunately, his defense often sapped his value. Despite producing between 15.2 and 23.7 park adjusted runs above average from 2006 through 2009, his WAR never got higher than 2.7, attained in 2006 when his fielding was average. In 2008 his UZR was -36. In the past three years no player comes even close to Hawpe’s -60.2 UZR and -29.7 UZR/150.

A player with such poor defensive performance needs a heavy bat for a team to justify a roster spot, never mind a spot in the starting lineup. Hawpe obviously had that, and to start 2010 nothing looked different. He went 15 for 42 (.357) in his first month, with eight walks (.460 OBP) and nine extra base hits (.714 SLG) for a .495 wOBA. But from there he struggled. In 80 May PA he produced a .321 wOBA and in June that fell to .269. He hit just two home runs in those 168 PA.

In late June he sat out a bit with soreness in his ribs, so there had to be home that the injury had sapped his production and that some rest would bring him back. But since his return on June 28 he has hit just .203/.314/.365 in 86 PA. He hasn’t gotten a chance to get in a groove, as he’s started three days in a row just once, and started two days in a row just twice before that. Not that he deserved to start more with his production. But some regular can find it tough to get back in a groove if they’re not getting regular playing time.

This leads into the discussion of Hawpe’s landing spot. He’s more valuable to an American League team because they can keep his bat in the lineup and his glove out of the field. But as we’ve seen with a few former NL players, the transition from two-way player to DH is not always easy. Pat Burrell never made the adjustment in Tampa Bay, and Lance Berkman struggled after his move to New York. That’s not to say that Hawpe will react similarly, but it’s a possibility. Thankfully for any acquiring team there’s little risk involved. Hawpe can be had for the league minimum.

The Rockies release of Hawpe might come as a surprise, but that’s only because of his past production. This year his value has taken a serious hit. With the Rockies out of contention his release does make a degree of sense. Chances are that unless he produced a monster year they weren’t going to pick up his $10 million option for 2011. The team set a payroll record this year at over $84 million, and already has almost $50 million committed to nine players next year. That doesn’t include arbitration raises, either. In effect, this is just Hawpe hitting free agency a month and chance ahead of schedule.

In yesterday’s chat, I was asked if Jim Thome was the best free agent signing any team made this winter. I’ve actually seen this idea pushed forward several times of late, as he’s continued to pound the baseball and help propel the Twins into first place. Make no mistake, Thome is having an excellent season, running a .412 wOBA that is the seventh highest in baseball among players with at least 250 plate appearances.

But while Thome has been a bargain for the Twins after signing for just $1.5 million this winter, he’s not the best signing of last winter. The contenders for that award:

Colby Lewis: 2 year, $5 million, +3.4 WAR

The Rangers took a small gamble on his success in Japan translating back across the ocean and have hit the jackpot for doing so, as Lewis has been a high quality starting pitcher while earning a paltry $1.75 million this year. Not only do they have his services next year on the cheap as well, but they hold a $3.25 million option for 2012, which will almost certainly be exercised as long as he stays healthy. By the time this contract is over, the Rangers will probably have gotten three years of Lewis’ pitching for a grand total of about $8 million, or less than what Ben Sheets got for 2010 alone.

Kelly Johnson: 1 year, $2.3 million, +4.4 WAR

The Diamondbacks were beneficiaries of the Braves decision to non-tender Johnson rather than go to arbitration with him a second time. Even though they guaranteed him only one year, they still hold his rights for 2011, as he’s arbitration eligible for the final time. He’ll get a big raise after a monster season, but his paycheck will still be far less than what he’d get as a free agent. A no risk move that has paid off big time this year and will continue to provide value again next year.

Aubrey Huff: 1 year, $3 million, +4.4 WAR

One of the main reasons the Giants are still in contention in the NL West, Huff has basically replicated his 2008 season, playing everyday and providing significant offensive value. The Giants got their cleanup hitter for a fraction of what other first baseman were signing for, and have to be thrilled that they missed out on giving Adam LaRoche a multi-year deal.

Adrian Beltre: 1 year, $10 million, +5.7 WAR

The best performer from last winter’s crop, Beltre has been the Red Sox’ best player. His defense is as good as ever, but now he’s hitting the ball well again and easily earning his salary. While he’s more expensive than the rest of the guys on this list, he’s also packing a lot of value into one roster spot, and for a team trying to maximize their wins, that offers a lot of advantages. The Red Sox probably now wish that they could have gotten a team option for 2011 rather than giving Beltre an opt-out, because he’s going to get a big raise this winter.

Alex Gonzalez: 1 year, $2.8 million, +2.9 WAR

It’s hard to imagine this signing working out any better for the Blue Jays. They got a monster April from their shortstop, where he posted a .403 wOBA, and then dumped him a few months later for a better, younger player at the same position in Yunel Escobar. While Gonzalez didn’t provide as much value on the field as some other free agents, he established enough value early in the season to get used as a trade chip in the summer, bringing back a return that could pay off for years to come.

Of these five, I think Lewis still stands out as the best of the bunch. The Rangers solidified their rotation without spending any real money, and they can look forward to two more bargain basement seasons still to come. Thome has had a great year, but there’s no way the Rangers would rather have him than their #2 starter.

The series continues.

LOS ANGELES ANGELS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 9.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Kaleb Cowart, Georgia HS, 18th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 3 college, 6 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Here’s what happens when you start your draft with five high school picks: you have a talented, but underperforming, team in the complex league. This is certainly no exception with the Angels given the struggles of Chevez Clarke (.325 wOBA), Taylor Lindsey (.299 wOBA), Wendell Soto (.325 wOBA) and Ryan Bolden (.248 wOBA) in their professional debuts … On the good side is second-round pick Daniel Tillman, who is closing for the man that drafted him, Tom Kotchman. Tillman has been dominant in the role, striking out 32 of the 82 batters he’s faced, while allowing just 20 to reach base.

Thoughts: The Angels farm system was pretty good before June, but with five picks in the first 40, this draft offered the opportunity to completely restock the shelves. Los Angeles took a really interesting approach to their multitude of picks: spending $6.2 million on five high school players. The team is clearly willing to take a couple busts in the name of adding a couple star players. While I like the picks to have a more diverse pedigree, it’s certainly a defensible approach. Cowart is certainly one capable of being a star, and after the first round, the team did go with some college pitchers with a little higher floor.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Michael Choice, UT Arlington, of, 10th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 3/7.

Notable Performances Thus Far: Michael Choice is just 11 games into his first stint, in the Northwest League, and he’s been exactly the player he was in college: 17 strikeouts, 8 extra-base hits, 6 walks in 53 plate appearances. Choice is a Three True Outcome player through and through.

Thoughts: I really liked the A’s first two picks this year, and then after, I couldn’t find a lot to get excited about. Choice is athletic, powerful, but also has an understanding for the strike zone. If the team can cut his strikeouts down even a little — he’ll always be a high-K guy — he could absolutely take off. In the second round, the team drafted and signed Florida prep infielder Yordy Cabrera. He’s older than most high school picks at age 19, but his tools are first round caliber. After that, the team spent more than $150,000 on just three players, all high school picks that weren’t considered elite talents. One of them might ultimately be successful, but even that’s optimistic. After Choice and Cabrera, the draft is littered with potential relievers and bench players.

SEATTLE MARINERS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 8.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Marcus Littlewood, Utah HS, ss, 67th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 5 college, 4 HS, 1 JC.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 5/5.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The highest pick with regular playing time so far is fifth-rounder Stephen Pryor, who has 16 relief appearances under his belt between the Northwest and Midwest Leagues. Pryor has been excellent, striking out 37 batters over 24.2 innings. He should move quickly next season … Mickey Wiswall has split his season in the same way as Pryor, and been just as effective through almost 110 plate appearances: .297/.339/.604.

Thoughts: While James Paxton has yet to sign, the Mariners spent more than $200,000 on just three players this season, and didn’t eclipse the $1 million threshold on anyone, which is principally because the team didn’t draft until 43rd overall, and drafted a player there (Taijuan Walker) without a college commitment. In the next round, the team drafted Marcus Littlewood — who some had talked about as a first-round pick — and bought him away from his college commitment. Missing third-round pick Ryne Stanek is a bummer, but mitigated by the fact that 16th rounder Jordan Shipers took $800,000 to sign. Assuming Paxton does sign, this team will likely end up with four solid talents for less than $3.5 million. They got good value, but they don’t have one of the league’s great talent hauls.

TEXAS RANGERS
Number of Top 10 Picks Signed: 10.
Highest Bonus Awarded: Jake Skole, Georgia HS, of, 15th overall.
College/HS Breakdown of Top 10 Highest Drafted Signees: 4/6.
Pitcher/Hitter Breakdown: 4/6.

Notable Performances Thus Far: The team has been pretty aggressive with Skole, sending the 18-year-old to the college-heavy Northwest League. But he’s held his own there, posting a .322 wOBA, but showing a nice 10.1 BB%. … It hasn’t gone as well at that level for Canadian Kellin Deglan, who has a .470 OPS in 10 NWL games. I don’t know why he was promoted from the complex league, where he hit just .286/.355/.357 in 10 games. … Ex-UConn third baseman Mike Olt is a little better fit for the NWL, and it shows: he has a .400 wOBA through 238 plate appearances.

Thoughts: Like the Angels, Texas was busy early in the draft, with four picks in the top 50. Also like LA, the team opted for high school talents early, drafting six of their first 7 players out of high school. But the team did commit money to the college side: Olt was a supplemental first round guy, and the team went above slot to sign enigmatic college pitchers Justin Grimm and Nick Tepesch. The current depth of the Rangers farm system allows them to gamble a little bit on draft day. For a team that was facing such financial questions in June, spending this much on the draft was a welcome surprise.

Favorite AL West Draft: Texas. Least Favorite: Seattle.

Toward the middle part of the decade, the New York Mets searched far and wide in a quest to uncover pitching talent. The Mets opened up the check book in 2004 to sign Cuban right-hander Alay Soler to a $2.8 million major league contract, and handed out a guaranteed $4.2 million to Rice star Philip Humber, taken with the third overall pick in the draft. Venezuelan righty Deolis Guerra got a $700,000 bonus the following year, but Wichita State stud Mike Pelfrey dwarfed that amount by reeling in a guaranteed $5.25 million (with bonuses) as the ninth pick in the 2005 draft. Yet, for all of that globe-trekking and cash spent, New York’s best find over that period might just be a seventh-round pick from Defiance, Ohio — population 17,000.

Jonathon Niese, inked for $175,000 in the ’05 draft, was Ohio’s first high schooler to win back-to-back state player of the year awards. Hall of Fame backstop Gary Carter, then the Mets’ Gulf Coast League manager, lobbied the club to come to terms with the lefty. Niese compiled an impressive minor league dossier (8.2 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 51.8 GB%, 3.57 FIP) and received some big league time in 2008 and 2009, but he entered 2010 looking to prove himself as an important part of the team’s long-term plans. The last image Mets fans had of the 6-3 southpaw in 2009 was his crumpling to the ground in agony — Niese strained his right hamstring trying to cover first base during an August 5th game against the Cardinals, then ripped a tendon off the bone while making a warm-up pitch. He underwent season-ending surgery.

While Niese did serve a DL stint in mid-May for his surgically-repaired hammy, he has emerged as a quality cog in the Mets’ rotation. The 23-year-old has 7.11 K/9, 2.84 BB/9 and a 49.1% ground ball rate in 133 innings pitched, a showing worth 1.8 Wins Above Replacement. Niese might be pitching a bit above his head at the moment — there’s a gap between his ERA (3.38) and xFIP (3.97) due to a near-78% rate of stranding runners on base — but he has nonetheless performed admirably.

The man hailing from the same town as Chad Billingsley doesn’t possess awe-inspiring stuff, with a fastball that typically sits 89-90 MPH. According to our Pitch Type Run Values, Niese’s heat has been -0.68 runs below average per 100 pitches thrown. But he’s not overly reliant on the pitch, throwing it about 55% of the time. Niese supplements his fastball with lots of mid-80’s cutters (26 percent), mid-70’s curves with 12-to-6 action (15 percent) and occasional low-80’s changeups (four to five percent). Those secondary offerings all have positive run values — +0.38 for the curve, +0.44 for the change and +1.41 for the cutter. Niese’s cutter has been particularly impressive. According to Pitch F/X data from TexasLeaguers, the pitch has been thrown for a strike 71.7% of the time (68.3% MLB average), with an 11.7% whiff rate that surpasses the 8.8% big league average.

Niese isn’t a monster talent, but there’s plenty to like here. He gets a solid number of punch outs, has average to slightly above-average control and keeps the ball on the ground, which adds up to a nice package of skills. Save for Pelfrey, those highly acclaimed, high-priced signees have fizzled out. But the Mets found a bargain in Niese. Now, the club has a young, cost-controlled asset for years to come.