It took until August for the Minnesota Twins to finally remove the struggling Nick Blackburn from the rotation. Blackburn posted an FIP above 6 in all of the first four months except for May and simply wasn’t able to keep the ball in the yard nor limit walks. As a contact pitcher – career swinging strike rate of 5.4% and a K/9 of 4.25 – Blackburn simply doesn’t have that kind of margin for error.

Blackburn’s failures in the rotation opened the door for Brian Duensing, who had been toiling as a reliever for 39 appearances over the season’s first four months. Duensing was moderately successful in that role, posting a FIP near 3.50 and compiling three runs above replacement in 45 innings. His first start came on July 23rd; since then Duensing had compiled 54 innings of 3.75 FIP baseball prior to last night’s start against the Kansas City Royals. Duensing threw eight innings in that game, allowing one run on six hits while striking out seven and walking none, which will surely increase his 1.0 WAR already accrued in the starter’s role.

Duensing probably won’t keep this kind of performance up. His 2.0 BB/9 and 0.6 HR/9 are both due for regression according to ZiPS and are both below his 2009 totals. Duensing’s skills are somewhat similar to Blackburn’s in the sense that Duensing isn’t much of a strikeout pitcher (5.0 K/9) but he misses more bats (8.1% swinging strikes) and induces slightly more grounders (52% this year, 49% career) while walking more (2.6 BB/9 career against Blackburn’s 1.9). As such, ZiPS projects a 4.37 FIP going forward. That would be below the league average FIP, but certainly decent for a starting pitcher, particularly one who wasn’t regarded as good enough to crack the starting rotation at the beginning of the season.

What Duensing represents for the Twins is the great pitching depth with which they entered the season. Duensing was the one of six pitchers projected to be worth at least 14 runs above replacement. Even without Blackburn performing up to his prior levels – a projected 2+ WAR pitcher sitting at replacement level – the Twins have been able to plug in another starter without missing a beat. Duensing’s 1.0 WAR in 54 IP prior to his last start would be great for a team’s second or third starter, much less it’s sixth. Depth like that is one reason that the Twins were projected to reach the postseason out of the AL Central this year, and, with performance like Duensing’s, it’s now a reason why they hold a 5.5 game lead as we head down the stretch.

This edition of One Night Only swears that it was only trying to help.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Texas (7) at Toronto (8) | 7:07pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rangers: Colby Lewis (6)
170.2 IP, 8.70 K/9, 2.90 BB.9, .299 BABIP, 37.6% GB, 8.7% HR/FB, 3.99 xFIP

Blue Jays: Shawn Hill (N/A)
21.0 IP, 3.86 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, .218 BABIP, 4.30 FIP (Triple-A)

A Bad Thing
Even though there’s a show by that name, I don’t know for a fact that everybody loves Raymond. In fact, I seem to recall people — friends, acquaintances, I don’t know — saying explicity about how they don’t love Ray Romano and/or his comedy stylings.

That’s fine. I mean, I’m no Ray Romano apologist. He was pretty funny on Dr. Katz. But if there are people out there not loving Ray Romano — well, I guess I’m willing to accept that.

A much more sensible show — or so I would have thought — would be one called Everybody Loves Colby Lewis. Because, look, the guy was a prospect, and then he wasn’t one, and then he pitched awesome in Japan, and then he started pitching awesome in America. The only reasonable reaction to that whole scenario is, “I love it.”

But a couple starts ago — literally, the first start all year in which he’d conceded more than five runs — Texas fans started not-loving Lewis in an audible way as he was lifted in the sixth inning of an 8-2 loss versus Oakland. These people booed Colby Lewis, is what I’m trying to say.

Lewis wasn’t so happy about it, as he noted via ESPN:

“I thought we had better fans than that,’’ Lewis said. “I mean, it’s the first time I’ve given up more than five runs. I walk a guy, and now they boo me?

“It was disappointing,’’ he said.

Let’s assume for a second that you care what I think about this. This is what I’d say if that were the case:

I can’t even make clear the degree to which I’m in the pro-Lewis camp on this issue. With the exception of C.J. Wilson (3.60 FIP, 3.8 WAR), Lewis has been the team’s most valuable pitcher (3.69, 3.5). Also, he’s only making $1.75 million this year — i.e. less than Scott Feldman and Darren Oliver and Frank Francisco and some of the team’s more recent acquisitions, too. Also, his skin emanates a beautiful golden light to which certain young-ish sportswriters are drawn like moths.

Another Bad Thing
Listen, America, I don’t mean to turn your frown into an even harder frown, but another bad thing happened to Colby Lewis. In his most recent start — this time at Minnesota — he gave up 9 R (all earned) in just 3.2 IP. And he had only 2 K in 22 TBF. And he also had 2 BB.

On the slightly brighter side, it’s possible that he was unluckly. Like, he gave up 6 H on 15 BIP. And he also conceded 2 HR on only 7 FB.

The Bottom Line
Ask not what your Colby Lewis can do for you; ask what you can do for your Colby Lewis.

Additionally
Shawn Hill is pitching today. If the name sounds familiar, it’s because he had a nice (if brief) 2007, during which he posted this line for the Nationals: 97.1 IP, 6.01 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 54.7% GB, 4.02 xFIP. His career since then is best described as a “cavalcade of injuries.”

Said cavalcade ended in Tommy John surgery a little over a year ago. Hill was then signed to a minor league deal by Toronto in January. He’s made 10 or so minor league starts and now, tonight, just miles from his hometown of Mississauga, makes his triumphant return to major league baseball.

Read the rest of this entry »

Before his unfortunate knee injury, Carlos Santana was on top of the rookie world. Through 192 plate appearances, his wOBA sat at .382 — an impressive number for a 24-year-old backstop. Logan Morrison is not a catcher. Nor is Morrison 24 (he will not be in his 24-year-old season until 2012), but through his first 176 plate appearances, he holds a .404 WOBA.

Morrison is posting that number through a strong walk rate (15.3%), a fair walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.87), some power (.176 ISO despite a 2.8% HR/FB), and an inflated BABIP (.397). He’s not as young or hyped as Jason Heyward or Starlin Castro, but prorating his WAR to date through 500 plate appearances – admittedly not a perfect science and one used purely for narrative purposes – results in a four-win season; not too shabby for someone lost in the Marlins’ season.

Oddly, Morrison is not without his own injury misadventure, making him a nice fit next to Heyward, Santana, and that injured rookie pitching phenom. Over the weekend, Morrison took a foul ball to the face – an injury that sounds painful and looked worse – but he missed almost no time because of it. Clearly there are only three explanations for this: 1) he has a face of steel; 2) he is the Terminator; 3) there is only one explanation: that being that both are true.

The only blemish on Morrison’s season to date is his defensive play, although that’s a bit harsh given the circumstances. Entering this year, he’d seen all of two games in the outfield, and he played in only 19 games in the minors before replacing the injured Chris Coghlan as the everyday left fielder. Gaby Sanchez has played well enough to keep his job, but Morrison is doing his part to ensure that both are in the lineup on a daily basis.

Bobby Abreu has a .339 wOBA. That figure represents the lowest of Abreu’s career in seasons that he recorded at least 500 plate appearances. The .173 ISO is right in line with his New York seasons despite the ballpark change and his walk rate is better than his final two seasons with the Bombers. He’s still hitting 45%+ ground balls; his flyball (as well as infield flyball) rates are mostly static.

Yet, his BABIP is down and not just a little. Abreu’s career BABIP is .343 and he’s never held a BABIP below .300 – heck, below .320 – during a full season. All of which is to say that seeing his BABIP hovering just above .290 is a new scene indeed. Matt Swartz of Baseball Prospectus fame asked Angels fans to jog their memory on who received the shift most often. Nobody mentioned Abreu and a handful agreed that few (if any) Angels see unkind treatment from the defense.

So, if Abreu isn’t being shifted, then what explains his .248 BABIP on balls hit to right field? Here are his BABIP to right field on an annual basis since 2002:

.257
.258
.339
.306
.372
.312
.290
.312
.248

Needless to point out, but this is his career low during that span. There is no shift in batted ball data to right field either. His groundball rates hold steadily above 60-65% throughout and even his line drive rates – say what you will about their accuracy or reliability – are mostly consistent as well. The only explanations I have are either that he’s just unlucky – which everyone hates as a reasoning but … — or that he’s hitting the ball differently, which is translating into easily fielded balls. That seems immeasurable (since what is an easily fielded ball objectively?), but that is all I can come up with.

The best offensive catcher in baseball this season with at least 200 plate appearances has been Geovany Soto, and it’s not particularly close. Soto has a .284/.399/.521 line with the Cubs this season – impressive for any player, but much more so at the catcher position. That line is good for a .395 wOBA, 15 points above Brian McCann,13 points better than the injury shortened season of Carlos Santana, and 20 points above Joe Mauer.

Soto has particularly excelled at taking walks and hitting for power. His 16.4% BB rate trails only Jim Thome and Jack Cust among players with 200 plate appearances, and his .236 ISO is in the top 30. His BABIP this year is a solid .320, 11 points above his career mark and 22 above the league average. The only area in which he hasn’t been great is in making contact, as he has struck out in 24.6% of at bats, about five percentage points more than average. That is slightly exaggerated, though, as his high amount of walks lowers his AB total – his K% in terms of plate appearances sits at 20.4%, three points above the league average.

Soto’s performances is worthy of praise and over the course of a full season, those could be MVP quality numbers. However, Soto has only appeared in 97 games this season, compiling 353 plate appearances and 3.4 WAR. Part of that has been injuries – recently, Soto has suffered a knee injury, and he had a DL stint in early August. However, a bigger part of that is simply former Cubs manager Lou Piniella’s reliance on backup Koyie Hill and reluctance to hit Soto high in the lineup.

Unless they’re Jason Kendall, most catchers can’t play every day, and as Jason Kendall shows, they probably shouldn’t. However, sometimes, a players skills necessitate that he is in the lineup more often than others. Geovany Soto, despite his poor 2009, was still projected to post a wOBA in the .350s, an excellent mark for a catcher. His backup, Koyie Hill, is not good. Hill has a .254 career wOBA and was projected for a slightly more serviceable .290 mark. However, Hill has forgotten how to take a walk (3.8%) and as such, his wOBA is all the way down to .236. Despite the fact that Soto is clearly the superior player and didn’t miss any injury time until late July, Hill already has appeared in 65 games and compiled 186 plate appearances of -0.7 WAR baseball. This is inexplicable – Soto may have needed rest, but there should be limits to the amount of time a star-level player as Soto spends on the bench.

Even when Soto is in the lineup, he doesn’t get his full dosage of plate appearances. Soto has seen the cleanup slot twice, the fifth slot eight times, and the sixth slot twice. The other 78 times that Soto has started the game have seen him in the seventh or eighth slots. Soto’s profile suggests that he should be hitting 2nd, 3rd, or 4th. Given that each slot sees about .11 more PAs per game than the one below it, Soto has missed out on anywhere between 30 and 50 plate appearances thanks to this relegation to the bottom of the lineup. With similar performance to his season to date in those PAs, that could be another half-win added to Soto’s line.

Geovany Soto has been incredibly productive for the Chicago Cubs this season, and if it weren’t for a number of factors keeping him out of the lineup, he could be having an MVP quality season. It’s hard to blame his injuries on Cubs management, but there is no excuse for Soto remaining in the 7th or 8th slot in the batting order or seeing Koyie Hill constantly spot starting.

When Joe Posnanski, Jayson Stark, and Rob Neyer all weigh in on a topic within a few days, odds are pretty good that there’s something of interest there. Odds are also good that most all of the points worth making have already been spoken for, as those three are among the best on earth at discussing issues relating to baseball. And so, when they all tackled Carlos Gonzalez over the last few days, I figured they’d touch all the bases. However, while they did a good job of discussing most of the issues, they left out one pretty important piece of the discussion, and that’s where I’m going to throw my hat into the ring.

Gonzalez is having a great year, certainly. No one will argue otherwise. His .423 wOBA is among the best in the league, and he’s spent a significant amount of time in center field this year. Offense from an up the middle position is extremely valuable, and his bat has been more than adequate even when he’s playing one of the corner spots. Of course, when discussing Gonzalez’s performance, it is impossible to talk about the numbers without also mentioning Coors Field. Posnanski tackles the issue of his home/road splits with quite a bit of depth, and does a good job of explaining why you shouldn’t just look at his road numbers and treat them as his true talent level, assuming that the entirety of the difference should be attributed to the park.

However, there’s another piece to park effects that goes beyond trying to figure out what a guy would have done in a neutral environment, and for the purposes of MVP votes, I’d argue that it’s even more important – the value of a run in a specific environment. Put simply, a run in Colorado is worth less than a run in other places.

The name of the game is to win, of course. You win games by outscoring your opponents, whether its 1-0 or 11-10. Anyone who has watched a game in Denver in San Diego will tell you that the park has a pretty significant influence on whether a game leans more towards one side of that spectrum than the other, and Colorado is notable for promoting offense. It is still the best place to hit in baseball, and because of that, the average game in Coors Field will see more runs scored than in other parks.

That makes each individual run less valuable in helping a team win. If the Rockies need to score six runs at home in order to win, a home run – which has a league average run value of 1.4 runs – by Gonzalez gets them 23.3 percent of the way there. The Padres, for instance, only need to score four runs in order to win at home, so a home run at Petco by Adrian Gonzalez, worth the same 1.4 runs, gets them 35 percent of the way to their needed total. A run in San Diego, or anywhere really, is worth more than a run in Colorado because of the run environment.

This is why we have to adjust the raw numbers before we compare players side by side. The goal is to win games, not to accumulate counting stats, and each individual hit does not have the same effect on winning a game for each player. This is why Carlos Gonzalez’s .423 wOBA is worth 39.2 runs, while Adrian Gonzalez’s .388 wOBA is worth 37.4 runs. Their raw offensive numbers are quite different, but their actual value is essentially the same. Offensively, the two Gonzalez’s are having equivalent seasons – that reality is just obscured by the parks they play in.

It isn’t about what they would have done in other parks – it’s about how many runs it actually takes to win a game in the park they currently play in. Even with the park adjustments, Gonzalez is still an MVP candidate, and if he keeps hitting the cover off the ball in September, he’ll have earned his way onto the ballot. However, we have to keep in mind that his raw performance has to be better than everyone else in order to have the same value, because he’s playing in an environment where runs are pretty easy to come by, and therefore, each one is less valuable.

I’m loathe to discuss the (alleged?) rift between Tony LaRussa and Colby Rasmus. My personal opinion is that the young center fielder should be playing every day, but I don’t have the desire, energy, or efficiency to cover every relevant issue. Joe Posnanski’s take is predictably enjoyable, in particular emphasizing reasons why many people are, well, sick of LaRussa. I imagine that’s a common sentiment, which is why it was good to see it acknowledged in Tim Marchman’s thoughtful “pro-LaRussa” post. One phrase in Marchman’s writeup particularly caught my eye:

Colby Rasmus is a really talented young player who can’t hasn’t hit lefties…

This raised the hackles of many people out there who quickly checked the numbers and pointed out that Rasmus has actually been pretty decent against lefties this season — 102 wRC+ (.323 wOBA) in 102 plate appearances, or a slightly above average hitter. However, he was absolutely dreadful versus southpaws in 2009, with a 28 wRC+ (.218 wOBA) over 115 PA. Despite a good overall line, a .256 career wOBA versus left-handed pitching is absolutely dreadful. But observed performance and true talent are two different things. Does Rasmus really have a problem hitting lefties?

As Marchman acknowledges in the comments to his post, 217 career plate appearances versus lefties doesn’t establish much (I assume that’s why Marchman has “can’t” crossed out in the quote above) — one should regress a left-handed hitter’s observed split against 1,000 plate appearances of league average to get an estimate of his actual platoon skill. After doing so, the estimate of Rasmus’ “true” platoon split still isn’t very encouraging. Using the ZiPS RoS .329 wOBA as a overall baseline, he projects as a .339 wOBA hitter versus RHP and a .297 wOBA hitter versus LHP. Even bumping that projection up to .340, he still only projects as a .307 wOBA hitter versus LHP. I’m not sure if platoon issues are one of the reasons LaRussa has sat Rasmus so often (and Rasmus has actually played seven of the last eight games, so this whole brouhaha may be about over), but if it is,
there’s reasonable evidence to suggest that in this case LaRussa might not be asleep at the wheel.

But back up for a moment: when we say that we need to regress against 1,000 PA of league average performance by LHH against LHP, that means that at 1,000 PA of observed PA vs. LHP, a hitter’s platoon skill is estimated to be “exactly” between midpoint between league average and his observed performance. This sort of regression is the right way to do things, particularly for minimizing error when doing projections for numerous players, but it also means that from just 217 PA, we really know very little about Rasmus’ platoon skil — the estimate is based much more on league average than on observed performance. So let’s dig a bit deeper.

The Book-derived method I use to estimate splits is based on major-league data, so it isn’t clear how platoon skills displayed in the minor leagues translate to the majors. Nonetheless, given the paucity of Rasmus-specific major league plate appearances vs. LHP to go on, let’s take a look at his minor league numbers. A quick glance at Rasmus’ player pages at Minor League Splits (which doesn’t use wOBA) reveals that he actually hit lefties quite well in the minors: .275/.371/.455 versus .278/.364/.496 for righties. That’s a pretty small split. More specifically: in AAA in 2008, he only hit .255/.347/.353 versus lefties, but given that his OPS versus RHP was .250/.347/.417, that’s still a small split for a left-handed hitter. At AA Springfield in 2007, He had a larger split (.839 OPS vs. LHP and .958 vs. RHP), but again, that isn’t a terribly big split for a lefty, and he had almost the same OBP versus LHP (.379) as righties (.381).

As for the major leagues, one should be cautious when splitting up his miserable 2009 and better 2010 because it is already a very limited sample. Of course, as soon as bloggers bring up “small sample size” we almost always go on to talk about the sample anyway, and I’m no different. In 2009 Rasmus pretty much did everything horribly versus left-handed hitters, although his .187 BABIP does seem to be quite unlucky. I’m not ready to say (particularly given the minor league numbers) whether Rasmus “learned” something about lefties between 2009 and 2010 or whether it is just regression, but there is obvious improvement almost across the board. His line drive rate versus LHP and RHP is the same (19%). His walk rate versus lefties (8.8%) is above the overall league average (8.5%). The power versus righties has improved, and while Rasmus is being criticized for his high overall 2010 strikeout rate (33%), his K rate versus lefties (29.7%) is actually better than his K rate versus righties (34%).

On its own, this breakdown of a small sample some of Rasmus’ split peripherals by season doesn’t tell us much. However, given the platoon skill he displayed in the minors, it does suggest that 2010 might be more reflective of his abilities against lefties than 2009. I don’t know what issues Tony LaRussa has with Colby Rasmus, but a careful look at the numbers suggests that concerns about Rasmus’ ability to hit left-handed pitching are overblown.

If a team is five games out at the All-Star break it’s no big deal. Not only does the team have a couple of weeks to improve its team via trade, but it also has 70-some-odd games to help close that gap. It can can pick up a game every two weeks and cover the deficit before season’s end. But by the time we reach late August and September and those gaps remain at five games, a comeback becomes a bit less reasonable. Yet we’ve seen a few late-season comebacks in recent years. They don’t happen every year, but when they do makes for quite a memorable September.

At 74-64, 4.5 games back in both the NL West and the Wild Card, the Rockies appear out of contention. Even if they do go on a tear they have a few teams standing in the way. The Giants or the Padres would have to collapse, and even then the Rockies might need help from another Wild Card contender to come even close to a playoff spot. Their chances are so remote that it’s easy to write them off and concentrate on the closer races. But considering the number of times we’ve seen big comebacks in recent years, and further considering that only three years ago these Rockies accomplished the feat, it’s a bit tougher, at least for me, to completely forget about them.

The 2010 season has been rough on the Rockies. They finished April 11-12 despite a +26 run differential, which put them in a bit of a hole. May was a bit more kind, but the team plodded through June and July just one game over .500. By the end of July, sitting in fourth place in the West, the Rockies even thought about becoming sellers. That never came to fruition, but the Rockies also made no big attempts to improve. They decided instead to go with what they had and let the season play out. The players, I’m sure, didn’t give up, but I doubt anyone in or near the organization thought they had any realistic chance.

In August the team did catch a break. Despite a -4 run differential they went 15-12, which helped balance out the poor April. Still, at month’s end they were seven games back in the West and 4.5 back in the Wild Card and were also coming off a loss to the Giants. They opened September with another loss to the Giants, followed by a loss to the Wild Card (and NL East) contending Phillies. That seemed to obliterate any remaining chance they had. By this time 7.5 games separated them and the Padres, and 6.5 games stood between them and a playoff spot.

On Friday the Rockies opened a series at Petco Park against the Padres, who had lost their previous six games. Much to everyone’s surprise the Rockies turned that into nine straight losses. A wins against the Reds on Monday and Tuesday made it five straight for Colorado, moving them to their current position. Again, it’s not a great position, but it’s a manageable one. It’s only a half game worse than their standing at the 138-game mark in 2007 — only then they had three teams ahead of them in both the division and Wild Card races, rather than the two they have today.

The Rockies share an important similarity with the 2007 team. When mounting a comeback every little detail counts. In September this includes the schedule. In 2007 the Rockies played 14 of their final 24 games at home, where they had a 41-26 record as of Game 138. This year the Rockies play 14 of their final 24 games at home, only they’re even better this year, 45-22 at Coors Field. Six of those 14 home games come against the Padres and the Giants, the two teams that stand in Colorado’s way. On the road they’ll play Los Angelez, Arizona, and St. Louis. The Rockies have a better record than each of them. That would seem to give them an advantage at this point in the season.

Even with the schedule advantage the Rockies still have a long way to go and they’re dependent on a lot of lucky breaks. Jhoulys Chacin will have to make a few more starts like his six-inning, two-run performance last night. Aaron Cook needs to finish strong after a generally poor season. Carlos Gonzalez will have to continue his mashing taters. Essentially, multiple players will have to get hot at the same time and sustain that production for a few weeks. It’s not something on which to place an even modest wager. But it’s certainly within the realm of possibility. In September, with most of the playoff races all but settled, we could go for some comeback dramatics.