Zack Greinke pitched well this season. At first blush, his ERA does not suggest that to be the case. A 4.23 figure is more than two runs higher than his impossible to replicate 2.16 ERA from 2009. He won only nine games and lost 14. Although he has one start remaining, he will finish at least seven innings shy of his 2009 season tally. Our WAR metric values Greinke at five wins this season. In 2008, he posted a 4.9 WAR and last year he nearly captured the sum of the two seasons with a 9.4 WAR. Clearly, 2009 will be the pinnacle of Greinke’s pitching career.

If you go by WAR, Greinke is the fourth best pitcher over the last three seasons, ahead of CC Sabathia, Justin Verlander, Jon Lester, and everyone without the surnames Halladay, Lincecum, and Lee. Of course, that’s a tad unfair given the whole amazing 2009 season thing. This season, his WAR is higher than David Price’s. Higher than Sabathia’s. Higher than all American League pitchers save a select few.

He will not receive consideration in the AL Cy Young voting and… well, whatever. He already has one of those trophies anyways. The weirdest aspect about Grenke’s stats extends beyond his WAR, his FIP, his ERA, and into his BABIP. Over the last four seasons – five, if you count the six innings he pitched in 2006 – Greinke’s BABIP has remained painstakingly similar:

2007: .316
2008: .318
2009: .313
2010: .316

Greinke is primarily a groundball pitcher nowadays and, as such, his infield defense should be taken into consideration. That’s the interesting part, because you would think with a high level of turnover (of players with 50 or more innings on the defensive infield in 2007, only Alex Gordon and Mike Aviles remain with the team) something would’ve clicked – either good or bad – with Greinke’s BABIP. Even with a historically great 2009 – as illustrated above – Greinke’s BABIP was right there with a decent 2007.

I have no idea if this pattern will hold true heading forward, but part of me hopes it does for curiosity’s sake.

Although they converged on today’s game in wildly different fashions, both the St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates entered Busch Stadium finishing lost seasons. The Cardinals roster contained one of the most formidable front end starting rotations along with two of the game’s best players in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday, and they will be forced to watch the Cincinnati Reds play in October. The Pirates have been by far the league’s worst team, entering at 55 games below .500 and waiting for the merciful end of a six-month death march.

At least both teams received some encouragement this afternoon in the form of two excellent performances from the starting pitchers, P.J. Walters of the Cardinals and James McDonald of the Pirates. Walters earned the win, going seven shutout innings, allowing four hits and a walk and striking out four. McDonald received a tough-luck loss despite allowing only one run in six innings (on an Allen Craig HR) and striking out seven against no walks.

For Walters, this was merely building on a successful minor league season. Walters threw just under 125 innings for the AAA Memphis Redbirds this season, compiling a 3.81 FIP in the hitter friendly PCL and a very encouraging 8.7 K/9 and 2.5 BB/9 over that stretch. Walters doesn’t have much in terms of velocity – his fastball averages around 88 MPH – but he flashes a curveball, a changeup, a slider, and a cutter. With that arsenal combined with solid control, Walters has seen success at every level, most notably in 2009 and 2010 at AAA.

For McDonald, this is just more of the same. As I wrote about two weeks ago, McDonald has done his best impression of an ace so far this season, and although he probably yields too many fly balls to keep up this kind of pace, he’s showing the potential to at least become a top-half of the rotation starter, something that will be key to McDonald’s success. After today’s start, McDonald has struck out 61 batters and only walked 24 in his 64 innings as a Pittsburgh Pirate. It’s hard to imagine that Neal Huntington could have imagined much more when McDonald was acquired at the trading deadline.

Of course, each team did have a relatively poor lineup on the field today, as can happen in late September with expanded rosters. The Pirates, although they’ve played better of late, aren’t a good offensive team, and the Cardinals were sitting their superstars Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. Still, these performances are impressive against Major League lineups of any quality, and both clubs must be very happy with their young arms today.

I had a radio spot on ESPN 1500 in Minneapolis today, and during the interview, I repeated something that I’ve been saying for a month or so now – I think the Twins are the best team in baseball. I get why people don’t see it that way, as they aren’t as star studded as the Yankees, Rays, or even the Rangers, but what they lack in name value, they make up for with sheer quantity of useful players.

Really, who is the worst player on the Twins who will see significant playing time in October? Probably Jason Kubel, who doesn’t hit enough to make up for his defensive problems in the outfield. But Kubel, while not a good player, is also not a terrible one. He’s a league average hitter, maybe a little bit better, and on days when the ball isn’t hit towards him, he’s just fine. He isn’t actively taking wins off the board, and there’s reason to think he may perform better in the playoffs than he did during the 2010 season.

The same goes for Michael Cuddyer, who is basically the same kind of player – decent bat, bad defense. Both of them have their uses, and yet, they’re the worst players the Twins put out there on a daily basis. Where most teams have offensive holes, the Twins have J.J. Hardy, Orlando Hudson, and Denard Span, who have each put up about a +3 win season this year. Even their reserve middle infielders, Alexi Casilla and Nick Punto, are valuable role players.

The same is true of the pitching staff. Maybe Carl Pavano isn’t the sexiest #2 starter in the league, but very few of the other teams headed to the playoffs can throw a more effective game 4 starter than Kevin Slowey or Scott Baker. The Twins have four average or better starting pitchers, plus Brian Duensing, who has pitched like one even if he’s probably been a bit over his head.

Relievers? The Twins have a bunch of solid arms down in the bullpen too. Jon Rauch, Jesse Crain, and Matt Capps might not come with theme songs and overpowering fastballs, but they’re good pitchers. Toss in Brian Fuentes as a good situational reliever, Jose Mijares as a quality second LHP, and whatever starter they don’t choose for the #4 spot, and the Twins won’t have any lemons coming on in relief.

The old cliche that you’re only as strong as your weakest link isn’t really true unless you’re in the business of building fences, but the Twins didn’t run away with the AL Central through smoke and mirrors. They put a good team on the field every night with a deep batting order that can score runs no matter what three hitters are due up, starting pitchers who throw strikes, and relievers that can get out of jams. There is no soft underbelly to the Minnesota roster. You can’t pitch around one guy and then go on cruise control.

If this was a 5-on-5 competition, the Twins might be in trouble. However, since every game involves 10+ players, the Twins depth of talent gives them an advantage over all of their competitors. When your worst player is Jason Kubel, you’re doing pretty good. Don’t underestimate the Twins just because they didn’t build a top heavy roster. They can win with this team.

The Tampa Bay Rays clinched a spot in the American League playoffs last night, ending a bitter drought. It isn’t over yet — there are 18-month-olds who have never seen a Rays pennant winner (that is what a certain left-handed ace should be embarrassed about), but it is an essential step. Ahem.

Although the Rays have done a good job of run-prevention overall (and much credit here must go to their excellent fielders), questions remain about their starting pitching heading into the playoffs. As in previous posts about the Twins’ and Rangers’ playoff rotations, in addition to listing certain 2010 stats for each pitcher, I will also refer to CHONE’s updated pitcher projections (both CHONE’s neutralized component “nERA” as well as FIP derived from the stat lines) to get a sense for each pitcher’s “true talent.” There is still some ambiguity as to exactly who will be in the playoff rotation (Niemann/Davis) and what order they will go in (Shields/Garza), and I’m not claiming to know for sure, so take the “ordering” with a grain of salt; that’s not the focus of the post. And keep in mind this is just about the starting rotation compared with other playoff teams, not an evaluation of the team as a whole. Starting pitching is important, but it isn’t the whole story.

1) David Price CHONE 4.02 nERA , 4.16 FIP
2010: 4.4 WAR, 3.44 FIP, 4.01 xFIP, 3.32 tERA, 2.73 ERA

In 2010, Price has shown signs of being the ace the Rays need. His strikeout rate has been excellent and he has cut down on the walks from 2009. Still, he isn’t as good as his ERA, and his xFIP likely indicates good fortune on fly balls. His CHONE “true talent” projection might irk some, but one can’t simply focus on the current season while ignoring prior performance. Price is a tremendous young pitcher, but just as a closer look at his numbers shows that he shouldn’t win the Cy Young award, they also show that it would be premature to say that he’s one of the top aces in the playoffs. Nonetheless, he gives the Rays a good chance to win every time he takes the mound, no matter who the opponent.

2) James Shields CHONE 4.09 nERA , 4.06 FIP
2010: 2.3 WAR, 4.27 FIP, 3.69 xFIP, 4.45 tERA, 5.04 ERA

Who had the better game: Pitcher A, who pitched six innings, struck out seven, walked two, and got 10 ground balls, six fly balls, and two liners; or Pitcher B, who pitched 6.2 innings, struck out three, walked three, and got seven ground balls, 11 fly balls, and three liners? It has to be Pitcher A, right? Both games were this past Sunday, and Pitcher A got the loss after giving up 5 earned runs, while Pitcher B got the all-important win and gave up no runs. Pitcher A is James Shields, and Pitcher B is Bruce Chen. That pretty much sums up Shields’ season.

Yes, his ERA is terrible, but Shields leads all qualified pitchers in HR/FB ratio. In other words, Shields is probably having more than his share of bad luck (witness his career rate of 11.8%), and he’s only 40th among the same group in FB% — below David Price, which explains why Shields’ xFIP is better than Price’s. Shield’s walk rate is up, but it is still excellent at 2.22 per 9 IP, and his K rate has jumped to 8.44 per 9 IP. Despite his batted-ball profile being about the same as usual, he has by far the highest BABIP of his career. This isn’t to say that Shields is a great pitcher (read this for a deeper look into a possible cause of his home run problems this season), but both this season’s peripherals and CHONE’s projection indicate that he’s probably a very good #2.

3) Matt Garza CHONE 4.23 nERA , 4.28 FIP
2010: 1.7 WAR, 4.53 FIP, 4.56 xFIP, 4.67 tERA, 3.92 ERA

The rich man’s Armando Galarraga! It’s a joke, but there is an element of truth to it, as his no-hitter masks a mediocre season. It isn’t clear whether Garza or Shields will pitch second in the rotation, but I think Shields is the better pitcher. Garza has the better ERA, but Shields has the better FIP, xFIP, and tERA this season. Garza’s HR/FB rate doesn’t indicate he has had bad luck, and he isn’t much of a groundballer. He doesn’t give up many walks, but his K rate this season is unexceptional after being over eight per nine innings last season. Garza is a decent pitcher, but he should not be expected to dominate.

4) Jeff Niemann CHONE 4.42 nERA , 4.56 FIP
2010: 1.0 WAR, 4.75 FIP, 4.41 xFIP, 4.51 tERA, 4.49 ERA

Niemann has been battling shoulder trouble, and it isn’t clear yet whether he or Wade Davis will be the Rays fourth starter. Whatever the reason, Niemann has taken a step back this season after a good 2009. His K rate improved, but is still below average. In 2009, he primarily succeeded by not giving up home runs and walks; and while, like Shields, his home run problems this season are at least partly a random fluctuation, his walk rate going up combined with unexceptional strikeout and groundball skills doesn’t make up for it very much. Still, if he’s healthy, he’s certainly a better #4 option than the likes of Nick Blackburn and Tommy Hunter, and arguably even A.J. Burnett at this point.

5) Wade Davis CHONE 4.85 nERA , 4.97 FIP
2010: 0.9 WAR, 4.83 FIP, 4.86 xFIP, 4.61 tERA, 4.14 ERA

Davis probably disappointed a good chunk of Rays fans with his first full season in the majors. Whether or not those expectations were realistic is a question for another time. Davis generated neither gaudy strikeout nor groundball numbers this season, and his walk rate this season has been average-ish. While his numbers taken together put him in the same category with the aforementioned Hunter and Blackburn, I think his superior strikeout ability and youth puts him a small step ahead of them at the moment (and a larger one for the future). The Rays probably don’t want to depend on Davis in the playoffs, but that could be said of every other team and their #4 starter, and if Niemann is ready to go, they won’t have to, anyway.

Most teams in baseball would love to have the Rays’ rotation (or their entire team, for that matter), but it doesn’t stand out as much in the playoff field. The Rays’ starters aren’t “severely outclassed” or anything like it, but the rotation isn’t a particular strength relative to the other teams. Of the AL playoff teams, the Rays’ rotation is probably the least likely to carry them through the playoffs if their offense has trouble producing or if the bullpen falters. They do have a bit more depth than the other teams. The main difference is that Price isn’t obviously that one dominating pitcher like Cliff Lee, Francisco Liriano, or (at least in the past) CC Sabathia. But (pardon the cliché) anything can happen in one game, especially when a young star-in-the-making combines an outstanding group of fielders.

Starting pitching fuels playoff runs. That’s why Matt and I are running down the rotations for each postseason participant. But bullpens also play a large role in the postseason. A starting pitcher can go seven strong and put his team in a position to win, but a poor relief outing can ruin all of his hard work. Which AL teams have the best unit to back up their starters?

First, let’s look at team relief stats. On Monday Jeff went over shutdowns and meltdowns and how they affect playoff teams. Here we’ll look at some similar data, plus some other factors, for just AL teams.

SD = shutdowns, MD = meltdowns, IS% = inherited runners scored rate, BSv% = blown save rate, WPA/LI = situational wins

It appears as though each team’s bullpen excels in a different area. The Twins don’t fare well in shutdown to meltdown ratio, but they also allow the lowest percentage of inherited runners to score. The Yankees and the Rays have identical SD/MD ratios and nearly identical inherited runner rates, but the Rays’ bullpen blows far fewer save opportunities. The Rangers’ bullpen might allow inerited runners to score, but it can absolutely shut down a team. Both the Rangers’ and the Yankees’ bullpens have more situational wins than their competitors.

The difference between the postseason and the regular season is that the lesser arms in the bullpen won’t get much work in the postseason. With that in mind let’s look at the key relievers on each team.

Tampa Bay Rays

Closer: Rafael Soriano

Soriano might not be the strikeout machine he was in Atlanta, but he’s still getting his share of whiffs. To compensate he’s shaved plenty off his walk rate, which means he’s putting fewer men on base. His .210 BABIP furthers that cause, to which his 0.78 WHIP is a testament. The Rays have also done a nice job keeping his workload limited, just 61.1 innings in 63 appearances, so he should be fresh for the playoffs. If not for the agelessness of another closer, he might be the best in the playoffs.

Relief Ace: Joaquin Benoit

After he missed all of 2009 recovering from shoulder surgery, Benoit had to settle for a minor league contract. The Rays were the beneficiaries of that. Benoit has become an irreplaceable part of their bullpen, bridging the gap between the starters and Soriano. Oddly enough, he’s throwing harder than ever, with a fastball that averages 93.9 mph. He has used that to strike out 72 of the 209 batters he’s faced, an 11.11 per nine ratio. Even though he has a BABIP under .200, his fielding independent numbers back up his dominance (2.53 FIP, 2.64 xFIP). He’s also done the one thing a fireman must: leave men on base. His strand rate sits at a ridiculous 94.8 percent, and he’s allowed just two of 23 inherited runners to score (9 percent). If the Rays enter the eighth with a lead teams will find it exceedingly difficult to mount a comeback.

Of note: Grant Balfour, Dan Wheeler

The Rays have gotten an excellent season out of Balfour after a shaky 2009, and it has added great depth to the bullpen. He’s good for a strikeout when they need one, and he generally keeps the ball inside the park. Wheeler can also come up with a big K, mostly when facing right-handed hitting. Touted prospect Jake McGee has come on fairly strong in September and would give the Rays a better look from the left side than Randy Choate. But he still walks way too many batters.

New York Yankees

Closer: Mariano Rivera

We need not revisit the lore of Mariano Rivera. His track record, and particularly his postseason track record, speaks for itself. He experienced a rough stretch in September, which can be alarming for a 40-year-old closer. But until he proves otherwise it is inadvisable to bet against Rivera.

Relief ace: David Robertson

After a shaky start to the season Robertson has turned into the Yankees true relief ace. Joe Girardi is willing to use him in any critical spot regardless of inning. He frequently comes in with men on base, though he has allowed 30 percent of those runners to score. But he does come up with strikeouts, 10.28 per nine.

Of note: Kerry Wood, Joba Chamberlain, Boone Logan

Had Wood been with the team all season he might have earned Girardi’s trust as the relief ace. As it stands, he fills more of a traditional setup role. Since coming to the Yankees he has allowed just one run in 25 innings, striking out 29 and walking 15. He has also allowed just one of 10 inherited runners to score, and could certainly could hear his name called when there are men on base. Chamberlain has been a bit shaky, but has come on later in the season. After two rough stints that included far too many walks, Logan has shown that he can get out lefties and even stay in the game to face a righty if need be.

Minnesota Twins

Closer: Matt Capps

Giving up prospect Wilson Ramos for Matt Capps didn’t sit well with many Twins fans at first, but they’ve hardly had reason to complain about Capps’s performance in the closer role. He’s not anyone’s idea of an overpowering guy, but he strikes out a healthy number while limiting his walks and keeping the ball inside the park. He’s no Joe Nathan, but he’s as good a replacement as the Twins could find.

Relief ace: Matt Guerrier

While Jon Rauch might play a more traditional setup role, Guerrier is the guy Ron Gardenhire calls on with runners on base. This season he has taken the responsibility for 45 runners not his own, and has allowed only 10 to score. Three of them came when he surrendered a grand slam in May, so he’s been even more effective otherwise. He might not strike out a ton of guys, which would seem a requirement for a pitcher coming in with men on, but Guerrier has been successful despite that.

Of note: Jon Rauch, Jose Mijares, Jesse Crain, Brian Fuentes

Clearly the Twins have a deep bullpen. Removed from the closer role when the Twins acquired Capps, Rauch has remained an effective reliever. He limits walks and strikes out a decent number, key components of an effective reliever. Mijares started the season poorly but has been dominant ever since. Crain is back to being the guy the Twins had a few years ago, though his walks could become a problem. Fuentes has proven an effective waiver acquisition; he has yet to allow a run as a Twin.

Texas Rangers

Closer: Neftali Feliz

Last year Feliz was a sensation. This year he’s playing a key role on the Rangers’ first playoff team since 1999. He brings the excellent combination of high strikeouts and low walks, and even though he pitches home games in a hitter-friendly park he has limited his home runs and extra base hits. He rounds out an excellent AL playoff closer crew.

Relief ace: Darren O’Day

He might not be the most recognizable pick, but he has been one of the Rangers’ most effective setup men. He has picked up 50 batters and has allowed just 13 to score. Like Feliz he suppresses homers, another important aspect of a relief ace. He’s the guy Ron Washington will turn to in a key spot.

Of note: Frank Francisco, Darren Oliver, Alexi Ogando

Even though Ogando has thrown just 40.1 innings, he has taken on 30 inherited runners. He has allowed 12 to score, so perhaps he won’t get the call in a big spot. But he can bring it with a clean slate. Francisco was removed from the closer role early but has regained his effectiveness in a setup role. Darren Oliver continues to amaze at 39 years old. He, too, will come in with men on base, especially to face a tough lefty.

Dee Gordon is the skinniest baseball player I have ever seen. The revelation was one of my most profound at this year’s Futures Game, which might tell you a few things: a) I am not a scout, and b) Dee Gordon is really skinny. I’ve searched for the best image evidence I can find — try here or here — but it’s really something that must be seen to be believed. Someone pointed out to me that Eric Davis was probably that skinny, but Eric Davis was also 6-foot-2. He had room to, and eventually did, put on some weight. Gordon is listed at 5-11, and at best, could probably push his generous listing to 160 pounds if he packs on 10 pounds of muscle over the next decade. And even then, he’ll probably actually weigh about 140.

The probably-shouldn’t-have-taken-me-this-long revelation has since really altered the way I thought about Gordon as a prospect. In the offseason, it seemed that Gordon was talked about in prospect circles in the same neighborhood as Starlin Castro. With the value of hindsight on my side, I needed to think about the comparison more thoroughly. It’s important to put Gordon’s size into context.

Since 1990, Baseball-Reference finds 131 player seasons in which a player listed at-or-below 160 pounds qualified for the batting title. It appears some of those listings — like 1999 Deivi Cruz — were generous, but we’ll run with it. After tallying these 131 seasons, I found that, cumulatively, this lightweight division hit .278/.346/.386, which would put their wOBA in the .320’s and their wRAA at a few runs below league average. Their BABIP was .305, and as a group, they stole 2602 bases in 3,620 chances, a success rate of 71.9%. Certainly not too far from the 72.6 mark that Gordon was at this season in the Southern League.

The numbers don’t actually seem terrible, but it’s important to look at upside here. Only 21 player seasons had a slugging percentage above .440, and in that group, 12 of them stole fewer than 15 bases in their season of work. Players like the aged versions of Lou Whitaker and Tony Phillips aren’t good comps for Gordon, and neither are players like Deivi Cruz, Shane Halter, or the bulked-up version of Juan Encarnacion (did the Tigers only scout skinny players from 1980-2000?). Speed is the name of Gordon’s game — he has swiped 144 bases in 324 minor league games — and it should hold true for players to whom we are comparing him. Therefore, I chopped off the 72 player seasons in which the player didn’t steal more than 15 (arbitrary number alert! Selection bias understood!) bases.

Surprisingly, when we take out that group, the numbers improve. The 59 player seasons remaining hit .288/.355/.387, the bump due to an increase in BABIP, which moved up to .316. It should also be mentioned that this group stole bases at a 74.9% clip. Peripherally, they averaged a strikeout rate of 12.0%, and a walk rate of 9.1% versus Gordon’s career minor league rates of 16.0% and 6.5%, respectively. There is clearly work to be done in those columns for the young Dodgers shortstop.

The problem with this group, in my eyes, is one of potential. Considering that Gordon does not possess, nor profile to possess, any power to speak of, he’s not going to have seasons like Lenny Dykstra in 1993, Julio Franco in 1991, or Damion Easley in 1997. The literal ceiling for a player with his skillset is Lance Johnson in 1996: .333/.362/.479, good for a .369 wOBA, and, with +17 runs on defense, a 6.5 WAR. And this is from a guy with a career strikeout rate of 7.1%. For what it’s worth, here are the players that had 3 or more seasons that fit my criteria (1990-2010, </= 160 pounds, more than 15 steals, qualified for batting title) — and next to the number of seasons are their corresponding WAR numbers for those seasons:

Bip Roberts – 3 seasons (5.3, 5.0, 1.7)
Brett Butler – 6 seasons (4.9, 4.9, 5.0, 1.9, 3.4, 1.0)
Jose Offerman – 5 seasons (0.9, 1.5, 2.5, 5.0, 2.8)
Juan Encarnacion – 4 seasons (1.6, 1.2, 2.5, 1.2)
Lance Johnson – 7 seasons (2.0, 3.2, 3.9, 5.1, 1.5, 3.4, 6.5)
Luis Polonia – 4 seasons (2.1, 0.6, -2.3, 0.8)
Ozzie Smith – 4 seasons (3.3, 5.4, 2.7)
Tim Raines – 3 seasons (2.8, 3.3, 6.1)
Tony Womack – 7 seasons (-0.6, 1.0, 1.0, 0.2, 1.4, 0.5, 2.5)

After I saw Gordon in the Futures Game, I wondered what his “perfect world projection” could possibly be. I’ll tell you what: it’s explained somewhere in the players above. But while there are 10 seasons with 4.9 WAR or more, there are also 18 seasons with 1.9 WAR or below. The median strikes a balance at about 2.5 wins above replacement. This is how it is for skinny players — some good upside if you walk a lot (Butler, Raines), strike out a little (Johnson, Roberts), or play defense really well (Smith, Johnson). But if you don’t succeed in those areas, preferably more than one, performance potential slips fast.

And if this article is guilty of selection bias, it also ignores the much larger sample of sub-160 pound players that never qualified for a batting title, and didn’t make a splash in the Major Leagues. Gordon is facing an undeniable up-hill climb, but admittedly, it’s a little more paved than I previously thought. I refuse to be as bullish as other outlets until Gordon’s peripherals improve, but I don’t want to be guilty of overrating just how much size matters.

Wins are at a premium right now for the three teams competing for the final two spots in the National League playoff race. With both San Francisco and Atlanta winning last night, it was imperative for San Diego to defeat the Chicago Cubs and stay within a half game of the Braves and a full game of the Giants. But the Cubs and Alfonso Soriano simply wouldn’t lie down for the Padres at PETCO Park last night.

After five innings, Mat Latos of the Padres and Ryan Dempster of the Cubs both had good starts going. Latos allowed two runs in the fifth due to a couple of errors and a double by Kosuke Fukudome, and the Padres had tied it on a Nick Hundley home run, leaving the score at 2-2.

Latos has had terrible results in September, allowing a 6.94 ERA despite fantastic peripheral numbers. Although we can’t blame the first two runs of the game on him due to errors, the next runs the Cubs scored are completely on Latos. After allowing a line drive single to center field, Alfonso Soriano drilled a two run homer to left field to give the Cubs a 4-2 lead. The home run clearly goes down as the turning point of the game, as the Cubs win expectancy rose from 55.5% to 81.2% on the play. This doesn’t even take into account the run suppressing tendencies of PETCO Park, so in all likelihood this win probability was likely even higher for Chicago, making the situation even bleaker for the Padres.

The Cubs bullpen has been, on the whole, roughly average this year, compiling 23 runs above replacement and just under +1.0 WPA on the season. But judging the Cubs bullpen “on the whole” isn’t entirely fair – Sean Marshall and Carlos Marmol account for +47 runs above replacement and +5.2 WPA, meaning that the rest of the Cubs bullpen has, to put it lightly, struggled. As Sean Marshall pitched on the 27th, there was a good chance that the Cubs would turn to another candidate in the 8th, meaning that a two run lead for the Cubs wasn’t necessarily safe.

Soriano, however, wasn’t done. Facing Mike Adams – perhaps the nastiest member of the vaunted Padres bullpen – Soriano belted a second home run out of PETCO Park, putting the Cubs up 5-2 and lowering the Padres win expectancy from 11% down to 5.4%.

With Marmol waiting in the bullpen, the Padres only chance was likely to come against rookie Andrew Cashner, who despite solid stuff and a 96 MPH average fastball has struggled mightily against major league hitters. Cashner, however, managed to retire the side in order, all but sealing the Padres fate. Marmol entered in the ninth, and, somewhat shockingly, recorded only one strikeout in a hitless ninth. It was only the 30th time in 75 appearances that Marmol has failed to record at least two strikeouts, showcasing just exactly why he has been the best closer in the league by WAR.

In a low run environment and with a scoreless ninth almost a guarantee, the three runs from Alfonso Soriano home runs were truly killers for the Padres last night. There’s no reason for panic in San Diego – they’re only 1.5 back of Atlanta and 2 back of San Francisco. Atlanta gets Philadelphia in their next series, and San Diego gets a personal hack at the Giants to close the season. The Padres, however, need to take care of business from here on out and barring a sweep against San Francisco, they’ll need some help. Coolstandings has dropped the Padres’ playoff odds to 19.2% – panic may not be in order, but if I’m a fan of the friars, I’m definitely worried.

This edition of One Night Only proves incontrovertibly that beauty is truth; truth, beauty.

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Arizona (9) at San Francisco (4) | 10:05pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Diamondbacks: Undecided (10?)

Giants: Tim Lincecum (10)
205.1 IP, 9.64 K/9, 3.16 BB/9, .323 BABIP, 49.2% GB, 9.7% HR/FB, 3.24 xFIP, 5.0 WAR

Notes
• About a month ago, a kind reader noted — sorry, I forgot on which post exactly — but this kind reader noted that “undecided” starters ought to profile as average or better in terms of NERD. I don’t know what score I’d assigned an undecided starter in that particular case. Maybe it was a 3. I was thinking to myself “replacement level,” is why. (I was thinking some other things, too, but they’re all too disgusting to reprint here. Plus, I don’t have any soy sauce.) But more often than not, “undecided” means a minor league call-up. Generally, that means good times. And even if it doesn’t mean a minor league call-up, it means suspense — which, that’s a entire genre of film and literature, so it must be good.
• “But Cistulli,” maybe you’re saying, “I’m looking at Yahoo or whatever right now, and it very clearly states that [insert name] is pitching. How could you miss that?” Well, what you’re talking about there, friend, is “up-to-the-minute information.” That’s fine, I guess. But let me ask you a question: what’s so great about up-to-the-minute information, hm? All you’re really doing is being prejudiced against the past. That may be fine for you, but look: if there’s one thing Carson Cistulli isn’t it’s prejudiced.
• Madison Bumgarner was originally scheduled to start tonight’s game for San Francisco but, as R.J. Anderson discussed yesternight in these pages, has been switched with Lincecum so that the latter could start a hypothetical Game 163 on normal rest.
• Oh, yeah: the Giants are trying to make the postseason. They’re doing a pretty good job. Here are their odds, per Cool Standings: 87.1% (Division), 3.4% (Wild Card), 90.6% (Overall).

Pittsburgh (6) at St. Louis (3) | 1:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Pirates: James McDonald (7)
58.0 IP, 8.38 K/9, 3.72 BB/9, .322 BABIP, 30.4% GB, 2.8% HR/FB, 4.17 xFIP, 1.6 WAR

Cardinals: P.J. Walters (15*)
23.0 IP, 7.04 K/9, 3.52 BB/9, .339 BABIP, 41.0% GB, 15.2% HR/FB, 4.66 xFIP, -0.2 WAR

Notes
• It appears as though P.J. Walters has already made a couple of starts at the major league level this season, but the most recent was on June 1st, so he’s still super fresh and super clean. Here are his numbers at Triple-A Memphis this season: 108.2 IP, 8.78 K/9, 2.48 BB/9, 0.99 HR/9, 3.73 FIP. Note that those numbers come out of the the Pacific Coast League, where a 4.79 ERA is league average. Also note that he was playing in a park (i.e. Memphis’s AutoZone park) that appears to suppress runs relative to those inflated levels*.
• Hey, America, the Pirates might be getting better. Yes, for the season, they possess one of the league’s worst offenses, but, over the course of the last month, they’re posting the seventh-highest (raw) wOBA (.319) in the NL. It willn’t surprise the reader to know that Andrew McCutchen has been the most valuable offender over that time, recording a .437 wOBA and 10.7 wRAA, the sixth-best figure over that time in the NL (behind Carlos Gonzalez, Troy Tulowitzki, Matt Holliday, Ryan Braun, and Joey Votto). The success of other players bodes well, though — players like Neil Walker (.396 wOBA, 7.2 wRAA, .313 BABIP) and Pedro Alvarez (.364, 3.9, .348).

One Other Game
Chicago Nationals (2) at San Diego (9), 10:05pm ET
• Watching the current iteration of the Cubs is like dividing happiness by zero. Enter at your own risk.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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The San Francisco Giants begin their second-to-last regular season series tonight. The opposition is the Arizona Diamondbacks and the series precedes the biggest series of the season – three games against the San Diego Padres (whom they currently hold a one game lead on) that might very well decide who advances to the postseason and who does not. Today, the Giants swapped Madison Bumgarner and Tim Lincecum’s starting assignments.

Lincecum will now pitch on Wednesday night while Bumgarner assumes his spot on Thursday. The move keeps Lincecum on full rest and allows him to pitch on Monday if required. Monday is important, as it would be day of a hypothetical game 163 – i.e. a tiebreaker between (presumably) the Giants and Padres. On the other hand, if the Giants find themselves needing to win on Sunday in order to reach the postseason, then Lincecum could come back on short rest in order to ensure their best chance at victory.

Pushing Lincecum back one day, in order to start on Friday night, might seem like an attractive alternative, but clearly, the key here is squeezing two more Lincecum appearances into the season. The Giants will not throw slop against the Padres, either, since their rotation members not named Tim are having an amazing month as well. Assuming no further changes, Barry Zito will open the series against the Friars, with the ever impressive Matt Cain going on Saturday, and then Jonathan Sanchez closing the regular season.

The Padres, meanwhile, will counter with Clayton Richard against Zito, Tim Stauffer, and staff ace Mat Latos going on Sunday. Chris Young would be in line for Monday’s start, if it comes down to that, although one would have to believe Jon Garland would get the call instead. While their ERA are nearly identical (Lincecum sits at 3.51, Garland at 3.58) the Giants would have the edge there, as Lincecum’s 3.24 xFIP is considerably superior to Garland’s 4.42.