Being National League baseball fan means being a fan of tradition. Of legacy. Of sepia-toned halcyon days of lore. And being a barbaric sadist obsessed with watching pitchers fail at batting. The good news for N.L. fans (or perhaps bad, if they really are sadists) is that they can brag to their elitist American League counterparts about having the best shortstops in the land.

Hanley Ramirez and Troy Tulowitzki play the role of Shortstop #1 and #2. If you go by offensive numbers of shortstops with 250+ plate appearances, then Rafael Furcal and Stephen Drew are the next two, with Jose Reyes, Alex Gonzalez, Starlin Castro, Jamey Carroll (clearly he’s hit decently while playing short), and Ian Desmond making up the top nine. The American League’s first entry comes at 10, with Alexei Ramirez.

The leagues alternate over the next few positions as such:

Jimmy Rollins .319
Derek Jeter .318
Edgar Renteria .317
J.J. Hardy .317
Marco Scutaro .316
Juan Uribe .315
Reid Brignac .314

It takes 17 shortstops to find five American Leaguers. Since those numbers are not adjusted for league or park there is some reason to believe the exact order might differ here or there. Defense and baserunning also come into play. WAR has Ramirez, Cliff Pennington, Hardy, and double agent Yunel Escobar placing in far more respectable slots.

The balance of power at any position should be nothing more than a cyclical process. For instance, 2005 (a random year I selected) had six of the top 10 shortstops (via WAR) residing in the American League. Another random year, 2002, had seven ALers in the top 10. That is to say, don’t confuse this for some grandstanding analysis about how National League teams evaluate shortstop talent better. It’s just their time, and boy, are they ever making the most of it.

Today, Joe Posnanski wrote a piece about Jose Bautista’s remarkable 50th home run. Bautista’s the first man to crack the 50-home run barrier since 2007, just the 26th man ever to reach such a gaudy number, and even though he’s already done it it’s still hard to believe. Two months ago, I wrote one of the stupider things I’ve ever written, when I predicted Jose would cool off before reaching the 35-homer plateau. So is his season a fluke? The answer depends on two things: just how much talent he truly has, which he’ll get to display over the next several years; and just what we mean by the word “fluke,” the meaning of which has drastically changed in the years since the Steroid Era, when outlier performances are all too often simply assumed to be chemical-induced.

Roger Clemens exemplifies the compromised history of the Steroid Era, which literally has made it hard for many of us to justify having rooted for many of the greatest players in baseball history. Jose Bautista exemplifies the way that the taint of steroids continues to affect our ability to enjoy the game. If Bautista had hit 50 back in the age of innocence, say, in 1990 like Cecil Fielder did — when the half-century mark was reached for the first time since 1977 and the last time till 1995 — we might be able to marvel at his accomplishment and cheer Bautista as a hitter who had, for one brief moment, either unlocked his entire potential or found the perfect four-leaf clover. And of course Bautista isn’t the only guy ever to have a massive home run spike. Posnanski found 31 other similarly fluky seasons, including Maris’s 61, Bonds’s 73, Adrian Beltre’s 48, and Hack Williams Wilson’s 56. Many of these flukes occurred during the Steroid Era, and in retrospect the word “fluke” seems misguided. But many others didn’t, and the list helps remind us that there have been other Jose Bautistas in the past, who came out of nowhere and went nuts for a while.

But in 2010, it’s harder to enjoy an out-of-nowhere home run performance in the same way, in the way we still enjoy other career years. Take, for example, Ryan Dempster’s nearly equally miraculous 2008, when the 31-year old failed starter and failed reliever with a 4.82 career ERA moved to the rotation once more and had the finest season of his career, a 17-6 record with a 2.96 ERA and 3.41 FIP that netted him a $52 million contract in the offseason. Or the wonderful Andres Torres, whose 5.4 WAR at the age of 32 has made him one of the best stories in baseball, but who might be dogged by a lot more nasty innuendo if he’d come out of nowhere to hit 30 homers instead of just 14.

As Posnanski writes, we’ve always treated home runs differently: “Home runs alone define how many people look at the game,” he writes, calling such a burst of such seemingly obvious insight his “obviopiphany.” And: yeah. Home runs are in many ways baseball’s signal event. They’re the most important counting stat in the game, because they’re so easy to count and so easy to remember. Our national obsession with homers are what caused Roger Maris’s hair to fall out and Hank Aaron to receive death threats, allowed Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire to bring baseball back from the precipice of the 1998 1994 strike and convinced Barry Bonds that he’d never be taken seriously until he hit more homers than any of them.

And they should be the most important counting stat. They have a higher WPA value than any other event on a field. There’s no single more important counting stat on the back of the baseball card. If you were explaining baseball to an alien or a Frenchman, you’d mention homers pretty early on. There are as many slang terms for a home run as there are words for snow in the Inuit language, and that tells you just how important homers truly are: if you really want to know what ballplayers revere, just look at what they nickname. The more different things you can call something (“hammer,” “Uncle Charlie,” “12-to-6,” “hook,” “curveball”), the more essential it is.

Bautista may have picked the wrong era to get hotter than a June bride on a feather bed, but there’s at least one way out of it: keep hitting them. As Posnanski writes, “We have to see how his career progresses from here.” For some reason, most people believe that the lesson of the steroid era is that momentary spikes are due to “the juice,” while protracted success is due to talent. As Posnanski mentions, Carlos Pena never hit more than 27 homers until he was 29, when he hit 46 homers in 2007, but he hits a bunch of homers every year, so 2007 wasn’t exactly a fluke, and no one accused him of acquiring his power through illicit means. So the only way for Bautista to look legitimate will be for him to keep hitting them year after year.

Once miracles are cheaply bought, they are no longer easily enjoyed. I hope Bautista can keep it up, so that we can finally feel at liberty to enjoy his miraculous season.

Yesterday, I wrote about Troy Tulowitzki and his swinging strike percentages against fastballs and sliders. His discipline at the plate showed in the graphs, as he swung and missed no more than 15% of all fastballs and most sliders no matter where the pitch was located. The one weakness that I found was the low and outside slider from RHP, but Tulo counters this by not chasing these pitches very often.

I took the same time period (2009 and 2010 seasons) for Joey Votto and thought I’d compare his results against fastballs and sliders with Tulo’s. A word of caution: obviously, how Votto and Tulo whiff against fastballs and sliders are not the end-all, be-all in the NL MVP debate. The first thing I would preface this article with is that the two batters don’t see the same pitches. Tulowitzki has a Zone% (percentage of pitches seen inside the strikezone) of 47.5% in 2010, while Votto has seen less pitches in the zone, only 41.5% of the time. Another relevant but less significant difference is how often the hitters see fastballs and sliders. Tulo saw 55.6% fastballs and 19.0% sliders in 2010, while Votto saw 56.2% fastballs and 16.2% sliders. Differences in how pitchers approach two batters will conversely require different hitting approaches.

That being said, let’s dive right into it by first looking at the left-handed Votto and his swinging strike percentages against fastballs (pitches from 2009-2010, 1209 fastballs from RHP, 630 fastballs from LHP):

The first thing that jumps out right away is that the colors contrast greatly with Tulowitzki’s SwStr% graphs against fastballs. Despite seeing less pitches in the strikezone, Votto, a left-handed hitter, swings more (Swing% of 47.7%) than Tulowitzki (43.3%), which is represented by the larger swing zones in the above graphs. He also whiffs on over 30% of high fastballs, and up to 40% of low and inside fastballs from LHP. Let’s see if Votto fares any better against sliders (pitches from 2009-2010, 384 sliders from RHP, 349 sliders from LHP):

Again, Votto sees a lot more ‘green’ than Tulo’s ‘blue’. Votto also has larger swing zones against sliders from both RHP and LHP. I mentioned earlier that one of Tulo’s strengths was his plate discipline, very good for most NL power hitters not named Albert Pujols. Compared to Tulo, Votto makes less contact off pitches when he does swing (Contact% of 77.7% as opposed to Tulowitzki’s 85.5%) and chases pitches he whiffs against more frequently.

This leads me to a compelling thought. One of the most interesting facets of baseball is how both batters and pitchers routinely adjust to one another over the years. With plate discipline statistics, we can catch a glimpse at how pitchers change their approaches to young batters season by season. Which of these discipline stats on Tulowitzki and Votto’s player pages would you look at to determine how pitchers have adjusted to each batter over the years? In turn, how about Tulo and Votto’s responses and their adjustments in approach? Feel free to discuss.

Yesterday, Jack posted about Adrian Beltre’s amazing year. I must admit that I was not aware just how amazing he has been, as Betlre’s wOBA of 0.396 puts him in the top ten in all of MLB. I wanted to see what was behind this offensive explosion from a guy who was a well-below-average offensive player last year (0.305 wOBA).

Beltre has never been much of a walker, and this year is no different, so his increased success is mainly based on his balls in play. Looking at his splits by ball in play type, the biggest increase in performance has been on his fly balls. To delve deeper into this better performance I plotted Beltre’s slugging on balls hit in the air by the angle he hit them into the field (with -45 the third-base line, 0 the line between home and second base, and 45 the first-base line). The curves estimate his slugging with standard errors indicated and the data are split by 2010 and 2005-2009 (the years covered by the GameDay hit information).

Beltre is a typical right-handed batter, getting most of his power to left field, his pull field. But in 2010 he has gotten even more power to left, starting at about center and going almost all the way to the third-base line. Beltre gets almost half a base more per ball in the air in 2010 compared to 2005-2009. To right field there is no real difference.

This profile, most of the change coming in left field, could be the result of Beltre’s change in home park: from Safeco, with a deep porch in left, to Fenway, with the Green Monster in left. Interestingly, though, Beltre is actually hitting better away from Fenway (0.416 wOBA away compared to 0.376 at home). Doing the same analysis above but for 2010 split by home/away:

So Beltre has done pretty much the same at Fenway and away to left, and a little better when away to right. Beltre has undoubtedly benefited from playing away from Safeco, but it looks like a big chunk of his success is just that he is pounding ball the a lot farther — with the help of the Green Monster or not.

WPA says that Tim Stauffer’s start last night, one run allowed in six innings of the Padres 3-1 win over the Dodgers, was worth 0.208. But that certainly underrates the importance of the start, coming after San Francisco’s 2-0 loss to the Cubs. (Hey, Appelman, where’s Playoffs Probability Added when I need it?) In his fifth start of the year, and fourth since joining the rotation on September 6, Stauffer managed to lower his ERA from 1.99 to 1.95, striking out five with a 9-3 groundout-to-flyout ratio. Now, it’s starting to become apparent that the 28 year old thought-to-be-bust, a guy who entered the year with 167.2 boring career innings spread over five years, just might be a Padres playoff starter.

These are the kind of stories that make baseball fun to watch, something that in the wake of FJM returning to Deadspin, I think statheads and Bill Conlin (and Murray Chass and…) could agree on. Stauffer was once the fourth overall pick of the 2003 draft, slotted in between Kyle Sleeth and Chris Lubanski, a top five that entered the year as one of the worst all-time (good seasons by Delmon Young and Rickie Weeks helped rectify that). Before the draft, Baseball America compared the guy to Brad Radke and, yes, Greg Maddux. They wrote, “His stuff, delivery, mound presence and pitchability are all major league quality now, and he should breeze through the minors.”

He did just that in 2004: a 1.78 ERA in six California League starts, a 2.63 ERA in eight Southern League starts, and an impressive 3.54 ERA in 14 Triple-A starts (the last one, albeit, with bad peripherals). The Padres split Stauffer between Portland and San Diego the next season, but his ERA was in the five’s in both places. In 2006, it was Portland for the whole season, and he allowed a 5.53 ERA, with career highs in HR/9 (1.2), H/9 (11.7) and BB/9 (3.1). Those are bad. His 2007 season was a little better, but a bad BABIP left his ERA higher than a top prospect should have (4.34), and with fairly pedestrian stuff, he was quickly being forgotten. And, he might have been pitching hurt.

In 2008, Stauffer underwent surgery for a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder, and predictably, missed the season. Last year was supposed to be about baby steps, a May return in Double-A, with 12 relief appearances there. But then came a promotion back to Portland, where he had four good starts, before getting the call to the big leagues. Stauffer had 14 starts in the second half of 2009 for the Padres, with both his FIP numbers in the 4.7 range, and a 0.1 WAR to show for his efforts. But don’t get caught in the mediocrity of the performance, the quick turnaround was the story, the performances didn’t matter.

Now, the story is both of health and success. And, of a pitcher reborn. If his one-time comparison to Brad Radke was to believed, Stauffer was going to be a four-pitch flyball pitcher, succeeding on good command. Entering the year, his career groundball rate would have been around 43%. But this new pitcher, this sub-2 ERA guy, is combining good command with some plus movement, and he’s got a 53.6% groundball rate to show for it. Returning to the rotation has done nothing for this newfound style, as he has a 54.0 GB% in September with a 2.0 GB/FB ratio. Thanks to Texas Leaguers, I can tell you that his fastball last year had 8.93 Vertical inches and -5.53 horizontal inches, where in 2010, it’s been 7.12 vertical and -7.57 horizontal. I can’t tell you exactly what that means, but one way or the other, it’s producing more groundballs.

In relief this season, Stauffer was mostly a fastball-slider pitcher, throwing the two pitches 82.1% of the time. But in his four September starts, Stauffer has picked up the usage of his change-up, throwing it 15.3% of the time overall, including 26.5% of the time versus left-handed hitters. He’s actually seen the velocity of his fastball and slider rise (91.5 and 86.0 mph’s respectively), with the speed of his change-up (81.1 mph) decrease in the conversion from reliever to starter. Though, of course, these are all small sample sizes. The point is, the 6-foot-1, 205-pound righty had nothing to gain pitching in relief versus the rotation: not velocity nor bite. The move to starting has only allowed him to use his good change-up more often.

Watching Stauffer last night, he’s a guy that going forward is so dependent on his ability to spot the ball on the outside corner. For instance, check out the Pitch F/X graphics from his September 16 start against the Cardinals. He threw two pitches on the inside half to lefties, and just three pitches inside on right-handers. More than pitching down in the zone, he just lives on the outer half, and will only face trouble when his pitches start to inch back to the middle of the plate. Luckily, half his games will be in PETCO Park, where mistakes can be tolerated.

Both in October and 2011, Tim Stauffer is one of the best 4 pitchers available to start for the San Diego Padres. In 2008, when Stauffer underwent surgery, he was assumed to be a bust. He’s not Brad Radke, and he’s sure not Greg Maddux, and I’m not even yet convinced he’s a groundball pitcher, but I do know that Stauffer is one hell of a story.

When the Padres acquired Miguel Tejada, they were likely looking for little more than a stopgap until David Eckstein returned from injury and some added depth for their bench. Instead, they’ve received one of the most productive players since the trading deadline. Tejada had put up a solid (and PETCO deflated) .263/.314/.426 line entering last night’s game. In said game, Tejada once again came up large for San Diego, homering and posting +.240 WPA as part of a 3-4 night.

That slash line above might not look that impressive, but we have to remember that this is PETCO Park we’re talking about here. According to StatCorner, the park suppresses wOBA by about 8% for right handed hitters, a number which is supported by Baseball-Reference’s multi-year park factor.

As Dave mentioned earlier this month, when a park strongly effects the run environment, it inherently changes the value of a run to a team.

That makes each individual run less valuable in helping a team win. If the Rockies need to score six runs at home in order to win, a home run – which has a league average run value of 1.4 runs – by Gonzalez gets them 23.3 percent of the way there. The Padres, for instance, only need to score four runs in order to win at home, so a home run at Petco by Adrian Gonzalez, worth the same 1.4 runs, gets them 35 percent of the way to their needed total. A run in San Diego, or anywhere really, is worth more than a run in Colorado because of the run environment.

That quote is remarkably convenient to our discussion here. Unadjusted, Tejada’s offensive line is just slightly above average. But a team that is playing in PETCO Park and scoring the league average amount of runs per game – like, say, the 2010 Padres – is likely to win a significant amount of games. With the park adjustment, Tejada has a 112 wRC+, equaling his mark last season as well as some of his early years with the Athletics. Throw in that Tejada is doing that at the shortstop position without negatively impacting the team in the field, and he’s a player that’s provided 1.5 WAR in a mere 204 plate appearances with the club. Tejada has played like an All-Star for San Diego down the stretch, and given their precarious and ever-changing position at the top of the National League West race, that makes him one of the most important deadline acquisitions of the season.

This edition of One Night Only can protect you from everything but your own self

(NERD scores in parentheses.)

Colorado (6) at Arizona (8) | 9:40pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Rockies: Jeff Francis (7)
95.2 IP, 5.74 K/9, 1.88 BB/9, .313 BABIP, 47.2% GB, 8.2% HR/FB, 3.91 xFIP, 2.1 WAR

Diamondbacks: Ian Kennedy (5)
185.0 IP, 7.83 K/9, 3.21 BB/9, .265 BABIP, 36.5% GB, 10.8% HR/FB, 4.29 xFIP, 2.4 WAR

Some True Facts
In the event that you didn’t notice, reader, allow me to point out now that one of tonight’s starters — specifically, Ian Kennedy — has the last name Kennedy. The intelligent person you are, you’re assuredly aware that, since Massachusetts joined the Union, almost every last senator from that state has shared this surname (i.e. Kennedy). Amazingly, a few haven’t. “Who are they?” you’re definitely wondering. It’s this question that I intend to address in what follows.

Though it actually wouldn’t take long to catalog all non-Kennedy senators in Bay State history, in the interest of brevity, I’ve chosen the five with the awesomest-sounding names. For each former senator, I’ve also included his dates and some shockingly brief — but super essential — notes on his respective accomplishments. (All facts stolen directly, shamelessly from Wikipedia.)

Name: Tristram Dalton, 1738 – 1817
Notes: First-ever senator from state. Elected to Continental Congress, in 1783 and 1784, before creation of Senate. Elected Whitest Living Person three times running during mid-80s.

Name: Prentiss Mellen, 1764 – 1840
Notes: Lived most of life in giant, northern part of state lost in poker game (i.e. Maine). “Studied” “law” at “Harvard” — which, I think we all know what that means, amirite?

Name: Rufus Choate, 1799 – 1859
Notes: As senator, opposed annexation of Texas. As lawyer, once successfully defended client on grounds that accused was sleepwalking when he murdered his wife. Was told, at young age, that he had a “face made for radio” before said technology was even imagined.

Name: George Frisbie Hoar, 1826 – 1904
Notes: Argued in the Senate in favor of Women’s suffrage as early as 1886 and opposed the Chinese Exclusion Act, too. Basically, crusaded on behalf of marginalized populations for entire life. Also, gave new meaning to the term “Frisbee Whore,” if you know what I mean.

Name: Leverett A. Saltonstall, 1892 – 1979
Notes: So, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so, so rich. I mean, sooooooo rich. Like, rich enough that it’s surprising he ever died.

Actual Baseball Notes
• On a per-inning basis, Jeff Francis is currently in the midst of his best major league season. He’s been on the DL for about 2.5 months, so you won’t see it in gaudy totals, but he’s currently allowing fewer walks per nine and inducing more ground balls per ball-in-play than ever before.
• The Rocky starters, as a whole, have been excellent. Per our leaderboards, Colorado has the third-lowest xFIP among starting pitchers, with a 3.94 mark. Moreover, their rotation is remarkably solid: Jorge de la Rosa, Ubaldo Jimenez, Jason Hammel, Jhoulys Chacin, and Francis all feature xFIPs between 3.49 and 3.91.
• Colorado’s postseason odds, per Cool Standings, as of yesterday afternoon: 6.5% (Division), 3.5% (Wild Card), 10.0% (Overall).

Other Notes
Florida (7) at Milwaukee (9), 8:10pm ET
• It’s one of your last chances to see Mike Stanton, who’s done this so far in his rookie campaign: 348 PA, .243/.316/.505 (.299 BABIP). .349 wOBA, 119 wOBA+, 1.8 WAR.

Seattle (1) at Toronto (7), 12:37pm ET
• Felix Hernandez will likely only make a couple more appearances this season en route to making a legitimate case for Cy Young honors despite currently standing at only 12-11.
• There isn’t, but there should be, an award for Awesomest Pitch of the Year. Lookout Landing documents what would likely be a contender for said fictional award.

Also Playing
These games are very likely playing at some kind of sporty channel near you.

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Episode Forty-Six
In which the guest is neither a duck nor a snort. Discuss.

Headlines
The Padres Were Bad
And Then the Padres Weren’t So Bad
And Then They Were in First Place
And Then They Weren’t in First Place
Ta-da!

Featuring
Geoff Young of Ducksnorts and Beyond

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 25 min play time.)

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Earlier today, I documented the rotations with average fastballs quicker than their pen pals. Since the inspiration came from thinking about Tim Wakefield handing the ball off to Daniel Bard, then it only feels right to flip the tables and look at the bullpens that really, really throw harder than their rotations. Note: for my purposes, “really, really” means at least three miles per hour. These numbers came from the team leaderboards and the only math done is subtracting the rotation’s velocity from the bullpen’s velocity. As you can imagine, those numbers came out positive, so no adjustment necessary.

Nationals 3.4 MPH

A little surprising because Stephen Strasburg torched catcher leather before his shoulder robotics gave out, but remember that Livan Hernandez resides here. As does Drew Storen (and so there too did Brian Bruney for a limited time and Matt Capps), and with no disrespect intended towards Storen or those other hard throwers in the pen, allow me to share the real culprit here. You see, the Nationals have had 10 pitchers start games for them this season that hold average fastballs under 90 MPH. Think about that, really, just think about that. How many teams have used 10 starters this season? How many have had, say, three starters with velocity that low? Five? Nine? Double digits? I do not know how that stacks up relative to other teams or historically, but that seems like a lot to me.

Giants 3.5 MPH

This can be described pretty easily: it’s all Barry Zito’s fault. Zito is one of the most scorned players in the league (in large part for his own rational decision making) and as such I tend to avoid cracking on him, but even I have to admit I laughed at Marc Normandin’s quote entrenched in this article. Funny is funny. Sorry, Barry.

White Sox 4.3 MPH

Not much about Kenny Williams is predictable. When most think he’s going left, he darts right. When folks expect him to sit, he stands. When they say jump, he hovers lightly over the surface. But one thing that is entirely predictable is what kind of bullpen arm the White Sox will add whenever possible. The only requirement is to throw hard. Call them the anti-Nationals because the White Sox currently have five different relievers with heaters averaging over 95 MPH and three more over 94.

As Dave, Joe, and I discussed on the most recent edition of FanGraphs Audio, Josh Hamilton is probably the MVP of the American League, but the lack of attention paid to Adrian Beltre’s season has been criminal. Let’s take a look at exactly what the superb Red Sox third baseman has done in 2010.

People around baseball certainly took notice of Beltre’s bat in 2004, when he posted a .334/.388/.629 en route to a 10.8 WAR season and his only Silver Slugger award. Although his 2010 isn’t quite living up to that lofty standard, it will probably be good enough for a second Slugger. After a move from spacious Safeco Field to friendly Fenway Park, Beltre’s bat has exploded once again. This season, Beltre is slashing .325/.371/.564, good for a .396 wOBA and a 148 wRC+.

That’s great, for sure – he’s a top 10 hitter in the AL this season – but it can’t quite match up with players like Josh Hamilton, Miguel Cabrera, or Paul Konerko. Instead, those numbers compare very favorably to players like Robinson Cano, Shin-Soo Choo, and Luke Scott – excellent hitters, no doubt, but they don’t really figure into the MVP discussion. However, Beltre brings one thing to the table that these players don’t, and neither do the players in front of him: elite defense.

Another topic of interest that we addressed on the podcast was whether or not analysts, as individuals, would completely factor in high UZR scores when discussing a player’s MVP worthiness. Some people, for example, weren’t convinced when they saw Ben Zobrist posting a UZR above +20, as there was little prior evidence of his elite fielding – they could believe that he was +10, maybe, but not quite at the level suggested by the statistic, and therefore, by WAR. Adrian Beltre, then, would be subject to this same question, as he is rated as a +12 fielder this year by UZR, and those 12 runs are the difference between his current 2nd place ranking by WAR and a tie for sixth place with Miguel Cabrera.

Personally, having seen Adrian Beltre’s defensive wizardry, as well as the consistency with which advanced metrics rate his defense as above average, along with the views of other fans, scouts, and other baseball people around the league, I have no trouble believing that number. Beltre typically adds in about 15 runs above the average defensive player, where as other candidates like Josh Hamilton or Miguel Cabrera are merely average or even 15 runs below.

I still think Josh Hamilton is deserving of the MVP award despite the fact that he will end up missing so much time, particularly because the regular season time that he’s about to miss is really of no value to the Rangers, who have been up by a wide margin in the AL West for months now. However, if, for some reason, you were to disqualify Hamilton due to his playing time, Adrian Beltre should be the next choice. Between his offense and his defense, you can’t find an American League player who has been more complete this year, and even though the value he’s added to the Red Sox won’t bring them to the playoffs, they maintained 50% playoff odds through the All-Star Break and 20% playoff odds through August. There’s no question that Beltre has been extremely valuable by any definition of the word, and he most certainly deserves consideration for the MVP award and praise for his accomplishments this season.