Josh Hamilton had an awesome 2010 at the plate, hitting .359/.411/.633 for a .447 wOBA, and he put on quite a show in the ALCS, too. This has prompted the suggestion that the Giants should give Hamilton the ‘Barry Bonds Treatment’ in the World Series, simply walking Hamilton every time he’s up. Anyone who has watched Hamilton hammer the ball can relate to this sentiment, at least on a visceral level. The Yankees certainly came close to giving Hamilton the Bonds Treatment in the ALCS, and that obviously didn’t work out too well for them. At the risking of beating another sabermetric shibboleth into the ground, let’s take a look at the numbers.

The place to start is to figure out how good Hamilton probably is. He had a .447 wOBA this season, but that isn’t the whole story. CHONE’s August 23 update estimates Hamilton’s true hitting talent in context at .386 wOBA (my conversion from the projected line). When we’re looking at intentional walks, we need to compare that to the hitters who typically hit after him: Vladimir Guerrero is at .364, Nelson Cruz is at .376, and Ian Kinsler is at .357. No surprise here: Hamilton is clearly the best hitter of the group.

Just because he’s the best hitter that doesn’t necessarily mean he should be walked in every situation. For a good summary of reasons why, read MGL’s discussion here. His basic advice:

My recommendation to any manager would simply be to never worry about walking anyone intentionally, at least in the early and middle innings. Pitch to everyone. One, except perhaps in rare, ideal situations, you are probably reducing your team’s chances of winning. Two, it is not worth the time and effort, and perhaps a little stomach acid and a few extra gray hairs worrying about it.

That’s probably the best rule to go by, and definitely better than much of the decision-making we’ve seen. But let’s get into a bit more detail for Hamilton’s case. The Book goes into great detail regarding the iBB; the idea is that given a particular game/out/base stat, the hitter at the plate’s expected wOBA versus the pitcher needs to be a certain higher proportion than the following hitter(s) in order for an intentional walk to be the right move. For the sake of space, for the most part I won’t do detailed analyses of individual Giants pitcher splits or other Rangers hitters other than Guerrero (whose projected numbers are the most relevant, and aren’t all that much better or worse than Cruz’s or Kinsler’s).

While Hamilton has hit everyone well this year, like many good hitters, he has a pretty big platoon split. Given his projected wOBA of .386, I estimate his platoon skill as .400 wOBA versus RHP and .355 vs. LHP. That’s decent vs. LHP, but hardly intentional walk territory, especially given that Guerrero’s estimated wOBA skill vs. LHP is .382! So neither Jonathan Sanchez nor Madison Bumgarner, both southpaws, should ever walk Hamilton to get to Vlad. When the later innings come around and the starters are out of the game, the Giants should bring in Javier Lopez to face Hamilton in crucial situations.

That takes care of many situations, but what about against right-handed starters Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain? Neither has a terribly big split, but we’d expect them to have less success against lefty hitters than against righties. Here we need to look at the ratio: Hamilton’s expected .400 wOBA is about 1.12 times Vlad’s expected .358 vs. RHP. When does the big chart in the Book say that calls for a walk? In the bottom of the seventh, runners on second and third, one out, and the pitching team down by five; in the top of he eighth runners on second and third, out, and the pitching team down by five; in the bottom of the eighth, runners on second and third, one out, and the game tied or the pitching team is behind; and the top of the ninth, runners on second and third, one out, and the game is tied or the pitching team is behind. That’s it, and since those are all relatively late game situations, the Giants will often be able to bring in a left-handed reliever to face him.

Of course, if you think Hamilton is better than a .400 wOBA hitter versus righties, it changes things. If Hamilton is a .430 wOBA true talent hitter versus RHP, the ratio of that to Vlad’s .358 is about 1.20. But even though the situations where an intentional walk is called for increases, most of them are still in the latter innings with the pitching team behind, one out, and runners on second and third. Again, in many of those situations the Giants probably should be able to bring in Javier Lopez to pitch to Hamilton.

Josh Hamilton is clearly the Rangers’ biggest threat at the plate, and there are some situations when an intentional walk would be the right move. But for most game states, or with a lefty on the mound or available to come in, the Giants shouldn’t give him the Barry Bonds Treatment.

According to MLBAM classifications (with the help of Dave Allen’s reclassification algorithm), Cliff Lee has thrown six distinct pitches this season: four-seam fastball (FF), two-seam fastball (FT), cut fastball (FC), changeup (CH), curveball (CU), and slider (SL). Classifications of sliders and cutters tend to get mixed up especially if they have similar speeds. However, Lee does throw the slider much more frequently against LHH than RHH while using the cutter around 20% of all pitches to either batter, so, in this case, we’re assuming that he does throw a slider no matter how rarely he uses it.

His new cut fastball may be his most important pitch now, as he used it on 20% of all pitches this season compared to 6% of all pitches in 2008, his Cy Young-winning season. But what does Lee typically throw on the first pitch? Which pitch does Lee use when he’s in trouble in a three-ball count? What about his out pitch when he’s at two strikes? Take a look at his pitch selection against right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters based on the count situation:

Clearly, Lee approaches right-handed hitters and left-handed hitters differently when working the count, as there are a few interesting tidbits to note here. First, look at the fastball distribution. Lee’s two-seam fastball tails away from right-handed hitters more than his four-seam fastball does, so it makes sense that he uses two-seamers more than twice as much as four-seamers against RHH. Against LHH, the opposite occurs: he uses the four-seamer more than twice as much as the two-seamer.

The cut fastball distribution by count is relatively similar, except Lee doesn’t like to use his cutter against RHH when the batter is ahead in the count. The splits for the breaking balls are very interesting, in that Lee uses his changeup almost exclusively for right-handed hitters while utilizing his rarely used slider only against left-handed hitters. Looking at the count situation, does it surprise anybody that Lee’s curveball is one of his favorites to use as an out pitch? He rarely uses the curveball unless he has two strikes and/or he is ahead of the batter in the count. In fact, 78% of all of his curveballs are thrown precisely in two-strike situations.

What about Lee’s plate discipline statistics by pitch type? Let’s glean what information we can get from these splits and suggest why Lee chooses to throw certain pitches in different count situations:

We just found the reason why Lee rarely throws his changeup rarely against LHH: left-handed hitters have not whiffed on his changeup all year while putting 35% of them into play. Granted, Lee only threw 17 changeups against LHH all year, so there is the sample size issue we should keep mind of. But this is clearly a case where Lee chooses not to use a pitch because it is ineffective against left-handed hitters. Similarly, Lee has only thrown four sliders against right-handed hitters all season. That should be self-explanatory.

The curveball splits are very interesting. 18% of RHH whiffed on curveballs, while only 7% of LHH did. However, it was more difficult for LHH to put curveballs into play (7%) than RHH (17%), probably because only 25% of LHH swung at curveballs (compared to 51% of RHH). For some reason, Lee wasn’t able to locate the strikezone with his curveball particularly well against LHH, but that may be intentional for all we know. Again, drawing information from a left-handed pitcher’s breaking-ball usage against left-handed hitters is hazardous because of the sample size — Lee threw fewer than 100 breaking balls against LHH all season.

Still, the most compelling trend is the uniformity of cutter usage no matter the count or the batter. Look for Lee to distribute his cut fastball usage evenly in today’s World Series Game One start. At the same time, his curveball rarely appears, but when it does, he uses it on two-strike counts or when he’s ahead in the count, so keep watch of what pitch Lee uses tonight to induce swinging third strikes.

A number of people* have asked me whether my torrid love affair with the Almost Entirely Invulnerable Colby Lewis-san will persist through the offseason, into 2011, and proceed all the way into the friscalating dusklight of my life. To those people I reply, “Hey, get off my Colby Lewis, ‘cuz I just, uh, got off your, uh, Colby Lewis.”

*And by “number,” I very well might mean either the number “two” or “three.”

Then, after an awkward pause, during which both myself and the interlocutor feel the weight of the human condition settle upon our relatively tiny human shoulders — after that, I say, “Probably not, no.”

As Roger Angell and/or David Halberstam have probably noted, like, a thousand times in their myriad works on the sport, the baseballing calendar — much like the liturgical and Gregorian varieties — is cyclical.

With the World Series about to begin, we are, indeed, entering that portion of the baseballing calendar characterized by death (of the present season, that is) and, then, rebirth (of the 2011 one, starting with the free-agent filing period directly after the Series).

As such, it’s also a time for the baseballing enthusiast to let go (sometimes quite literally, as a certain “restraining order” has dictated) of his heroes, and to find a new ones for the 2011 season. Another year of data reveals a new set of minor leaguers toiling unnecessarily in obscurity, of defensively gifted center fielders blocked by Aaron Rowand underwhelming veterans, of CHONE and ZiPS projections with which to get inappropriately intimate.

Indeed, much of the electronic ink I’ll be spilling this offseason will be dedicated to identifying players like the pre-2010 Colby Lewis — that is, those players who’re likely to succeed and surprise millions in so doing.

Over the next two days, I’ll get this particular party started by discussing some curious names and curiouser numbers from Dan Szymborski’s 2010 Minor League Translations (a document you’re more than willing to peruse by clicking here and doing your worst). As Szymborski himself would almost definitely say, those minor league translations are intended to be entirely accurate representations of each player’s true-talent level, no matter the smallness of the sample.

One early name to think about until then: Daryl Thompson. The Cincinnati farmhand not only had an (estimated) MLE FIP of 4.31 in 46 Double-A innings (12 starts) last season, but also did this in the Arizona Fall League last year: 11.0 IP, 17 K, 2 BB, 1 HR. He’s playing for Peoria (Arizona) this fall.

Tonight, for the first time since June 12, Cliff Lee will bat against live pitching. Tomorrow, when C.J. Wilson comes to the plate, it will be only the sixth time he has done so in his career. American League pitchers are often ill-prepared for the task ahead of them. For the great majority of the six-month season they take no batting practice. Only in the weeks leading up to interleague play do they pick up a bat and work on swinging and bunting. This lack of preparation gives National League teams an advantage when they’re at home in the World Series.

Bench composition also plays a role in this imbalance. National League teams, at least the good ones, often have a number of pinch-hitters on the bench. American League teams have no such need. The better offenses typically have seven or eight regulars, for whom the manager would rarely, if ever, pinch hit. This means they can get by without thumpers on the bench — often, too, the better bench players gravitate towards NL teams for this very reason. But when they play games in San Francisco, Texas will be well-armed.

Chances are that the Rangers won’t need more than one AB from a pinch hitter in Lee’s stead. He has worked deep into every postseason game so far. But in case he does slip a bit in Game 1, the Rangers will have a few bench weapons. Because Vladimir Guerrero will start Games 1 and 2, David Murphy will be left on the bench. He can come in and face Tim Lincecum or any of the Giants’ righty relievers. As mentioned in the Vlad article, he has a career .357 wOBA against right-handed pitching, so he immediately becomes the Rangers’ greatest pinch-hitting threat. He might be the best bench bat for any team in the series.

Should the Giants go to a lefty, the Rangers could counter with Jeff Francoeur. He has been part of the team’s outfield platoon, and will almost certainly start Games 3 and 4, when the Giants will throw Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner. While he hasn’t produced a wOBA north of .330 since 2007, he remains a threat against left-handed pitching. His .340 wOBA this year is about in line with his career mark. We can expect that he’ll enter the game should either Jeremy Affeldt or Javier Lopez be in the game, if for no other reason than goad Bruce Bochy into making a pitching change.

The Rangers also have perhaps the best pinch-running option in the series with Julio Borbon. His 6.1 Speed score rates better than any player in the series other than Andres Torres, who will start for the Giants. His best role will be as a pinch-runner and then defensive replacement for Guerrero, but he can also replace either of the team’s catchers should they reach base late in a game. He had a pretty bad season in terms of steals, just 15-of-22, but that doesn’t tell us exactly how he’ll do in the specific situations he’ll face in the late innings.

Some American League teams struggle with the bench aspect of the game. They’ll usually have their regular DH on the bench for the World Series, which helps, but National League teams typically construct their benches to the conventions of the no-DH game. That gives them an advantage when the AL team visits in the World Series. The Rangers, however, appear well prepared for the NL game. They have a capable lefty and capable righty on the bench, plus a speed threat.

The Giants, on the other hand, might not have the optimal build for the AL game. We’ll look at that when the series heads to Arlington.

This is my week at the Arizona Fall League. I went to one game and two batting practices (from three teams: Phoenix, Scottsdale, Javelinas) on Tuesday. I previously wrote about the pitchers from the day. Here is my thoughts on the hitters. Note that if you follow me on Twitter, you’ll know I saw Bryce Harper, but will see he’s not in this piece. Bryce will be getting his own post after I see another BP and his third game in the AFL today.

First, I want to start this piece with some thoughts on the utility of scouting batting practices. I have received this question from a couple readers, and I think it’s ground worth returning to. Yes, I think there is value to be learned from watching hitters take BP, especially in environments where they know scouts are watching, be it high school showcases or the AFL. Yes, scouts would rather see a player in 12 games than they would 4 batting practices — I’m guessing the number of swings you’d see in each of those scenarios would be close to equal — to see the adjustments and approaches that a player takes to meaningful at-bats. But when faced with time constraints, like you’re just in Arizona for four days, batting practice works. It lets you see a player do his best to square up a baseball, and it lets you see his best hack at doing so. I try not to be results-based in my batting practice “scouting” analysis, but it’s a lot more art than science, and I’m no expert.

Which brings me to an interesting scouting conundrum that popped up today, seeing the Phoenix Desert Dogs take batting practice for the second consecutive day. If you used just those two days, and those 40 swings, to make completely definitive judgments about players, there’s no question you would arrive at the fact that Austin Romine has more power (be it raw or present power) than Jerry Sands. The person who saw just 40 swings would, trust me, be shocked to learn that Romine hit just ten home runs this year where Sands hit 35.

You would be shocked because they have taken totally different approaches to the batting cage over the two days. For Sands, the focus has been hitting the ball the other way. At first, I thought maybe Sands was primarily an opposite field hitter, but given the sheer number of balls he’s hit towards right field in two days, I’m convinced it’s the orders he was given by the Dodgers. This is a guy not out there to show that he can hit the ball 400 feet, but working on improving his game by spraying balls around the park. Romine, on the other hand, has been fun for the home run fans for two days, showing something from the Jim Leyritz skillset: pulling balls to left field with the sole goal of clearing the fence.

But I’m not convinced he’s showing off either. I went back and reviewed the play-by-play logs of each of Romine’s 44 extra-bases from this year (AFL included), and he hasn’t quite been the dead pull hitter he’s shown to be in BP:

Left Field Extra-Base Hits: 13
Left-Center Extra-Base Hits: 4
Center Field Extra-Base Hits: 17
Right Field Extra-Base Hits: 10

Not a huge discrepancy, and we actually saw him hitting more extra-base hits to right field near the end of the season. What I wonder is if, in Romine’s case, the focus has been working with him to begin to turn his raw power into game power — to actually make him more proactive in pulling balls when given the opportunity. After all, the Yankees just had to look to their division rivals to the north to see how a hitter can blossom by utilizing that change in approach. I suppose what all this is coming to is a refutation of my earlier point, to make the hindrances of taking too much from batting practice obvious to you. I believe Austin Romine has some untapped power, and I think Jerry Sands looks, as I said yesterday, more like a .300 hitter than a 30 home run slugger, but I’ve seen them each swing 50 times in a developmental league cage. There’s value in this scouting trip, in seeing players builds and their swings and their actions, but each reaction is to be taken with some salt. And that’s before emphasizing that I am not a scout.

Caveats Be Damned, Thoughts From Today

I want to be sure to dampen my criticisms from yesterday about Brandon Laird. The guy has a funky swing, and his position is in question out here, but I’m not writing off the possibility that he will hit. I like what I saw much more on day two, where his great weight and hip transfers really stuck out. He drops the barrel of the bat well in the zone, and has good bat speed to generate line drive power. I think there are reasons to believe big league pitchers will be able to take advantage of him, but I also think he could be a second division slugger at some point.

If we were going to give a worst batting practice award for the day, there would be three candidates: Matt Wallach (Dodgers), Xavier Avery (Orioles) and Marc Krauss (Diamondbacks). Considering that Krauss had the best season of the three, .302/.371/.509 in the Cal League, he was certainly the biggest disappointment. Quite simply, the left-handed hitter has terrible bat speed, so I doubt he can catch up to many good fastballs. That’s hard to profile at the big league level. I’m not sure Wallach ever profiled there, but his level swing with questionable bat speed produces a lot of ground balls. Finally, Xavier Avery has pretty good hip rotation, but he doesn’t use his upper body well, failing to load his hands at all.

Today was my only day to check on the Javelinas, and I saw some things I liked. I worry about the “I told you” so e-mails coming from Dave Cameron and John Manuel as I write about Dustin Ackley’s developing power, but he’s noticeably stronger since college. I would have conceded this possibility long ago, but the more encouraging development is a change in approach. When I saw him in college, Ackley was constantly hitting balls to left-center field, relegating himself to a singles hitter. This approach came back later in BP, but early on, he was pulling the ball with authority, hitting two balls over the wall into the bullpen. He’s not showing huge power, but an adapted approach would give me some confidence in projecting some 15-20 home run seasons at some point.

Ackley is inevitably being compared a lot to Jason Kipnis, the fellow second base convert that just happens to be on the same AFL team. Kipnis definitely has more power than Ackley, but there are some noticeable holes in his swing as well. Where Ackley can at least use the whole field, Kipnis is more limited, and he’ll never be able to post the same high batting averages. It’s still definitely Ackley ahead of Kipnis in that race.

To return the discussion to where it began — this is what the great writers do, I’m told — seeing Eric Thames (Blue Jays) in Scottsdale is why I believe that writing about batting practices has value. I went to Scottsdale with some subconscious knowledge of his 2010 good season (.288/.370/.526 in the Eastern League), but seeing him in person helps me answer those, “Should I believe or shouldn’t I?” questions that pop up in my chats’ queues. In this case, you should believe: he is really strong, and seems to have a nice understanding and usage of backspin. He also hit the longest home run I saw today, but there I go getting results-based again.

This is my week at the Arizona Fall League. I went to one game and two batting practices on Tuesday. These are my thoughts on the pitchers I saw. Hitter thoughts to come in 30 minutes.

While Monday’s starting pitching match-up here in Phoenix (Travis Banwart vs. Jake Muyco) featured a pair of arms destined to top out in Triple-A, today’s (Surprise vs. Phoenix) was a pair of pitchers headed to the middle of big league bullpens. For unknown reasons, the visiting Surprise ballclub decided to substitute one Brewer farmhand for another, opting to start lefty Dan Merklinger rather than Michael Fiers. Both are fringe Brewers prospects, so it didn’t make much difference to me, and I would argue that Merklinger has the better shot at cracking the big leagues. The reason, quite simply, is that he is left-handed, and throws a good breaking ball.

The key for Merklinger is to command his 85-88 mph fastball, which he didn’t do fantastically on Tuesday. This is essentially the make-or-break element to his career, and it’s pretty iffy: he walked three or more in six of 21 starts this year, but then finished his year with five walks in 35 August innings.

On the Desert Dogs side, It appears as though the Dodgers are using the AFL to stretch out Jon Link, traded with John Ely for Juan Pierre, who has been relieving for four years. In fact, Link’s six-inning start yesterday was his longest outing since August 8, 2005. After four innings, I said to those around me, “Well, that’s the best you’re going to see Jon Link.” Up to that point, he had allowed just a single hit, subsequently retiring that baserunner via a double play. He was pitching around 90 mph, in the low 80’s with a hard slider, and showing an occasional change-up to a lefty. He was getting good tailing movement on his fastball, reflected by a 7-1 GO/AO ratio up to that point.

I was proven correct in the fifth inning, as the wheels came off a bit for Link. He allowed a first-pitch home run to Hunter Morris on an elevated fastball. After retiring Davis Stoneburner via groundout, Link then gave up three singles and a walk to the next four hitters, giving up two runs in the process. The home run and two of the singles were to left-handed hitters, and in that comment alone, Link’s weakness as a pitcher is exposed. He just can’t buy a swing-and-miss against a lefty, and for that reason, this fall experiment to return Link to the rotation will ultimately fail. Leties hit .299/.402/.483 in Albuquerque this season, and you can see why: his 3/4 release point is easier for them to see, and his fastball moves inside toward them.

Ultimately, all this is building towards a middle relief career for Link, who is proving that he can pitch multiple innings, and the AFL serves as a place for him to work on his approach to lefties. He did locate the change up low-and-away to lefties, but it’s a fringe pitch. He’s a tough match-up to righties with good command of a slightly above-average slider, and just like the opposite version of Merklinger, he will be a competent relief option until he reaches his arbitration-eligible seasons.

The better performances came in relief, and while I won’t talk about each pitcher in detail, I will reflect upon the three with the pedigree and stuff to deserve it: Jeremy Jeffress (Brewers), Jordan Swagerty (Cardinals) and Danny Duffy (Royals). You’ll note that two of these three were covered by Keith Law in an article that went up yesterday, after Keith saw Jeffress and Duffy in their previous outings.

Jeffress is the only one of the three pitchers I had seen before today, thanks to a September call-up that went okay. So, I can be sure that the version of Jeffress I saw on Tuesday is not the best he’s capable of pitching. In his two-inning appearance, Jeffress sat around 94 mph, touching 96 as often as he did 92. Jeffress has that exaggerated over-the-top delivery, and his trademark effortless arm action — few in baseball look easier throwing 95. But when you’re walking multiple batters, with inconsistent mechanics and differing release points, things don’t look as easy.

The other problem for Jeffress is that he had no feel for his curve on Tuesday. He couldn’t get on top of the pitch at all, as we saw a couple curves fail to break much at all. His change-up was featured sparingly, though it looked good on one occasion, but it’s the curve that needs to be his out pitch to sustain late-inning bullpen success. Hitters can hit 95 mph when they know it’s coming, no matter how easy it looks, so Jeffress must show that he can get hitters utilizing two-strike approaches with a curve out of the zone.

Next came Jordan Swagerty, the second-round pick by the Cardinals in the most recent draft, making his pro debut in the AFL, close to where he went to school in Tempe. It’s hard to believe Swagerty caught for the Sun Devils in addition to his closing duties, because he lacks the build of a traditional catcher — he’s lanky, with skinny, long legs. He’s aggressive on the mound, going after hitters and trusting his stuff that isn’t by any means elite. His fastball was 91-92, touching 93 on a couple occasions. While his athleticism would bode well to an eventual move to the rotation, he’s slight of build with plenty of effort in his delivery (especially after seeing Jeffress), so it’s hard to see that multiple innings would serve him well.

Swagerty showed control of his tight 82-83 mph slider, registering his lone strikeout of the inning by getting called strikes two and three with the offering. I would need to see him on subsequent outings to show proof of command of the pitch, too, as he only threw the pitch in the zone. It becomes a much deadlier option if he can spot in the zone as well as out of the zone, burying the pitch with two strikes. The other problem is the pitch doesn’t have the two-plane movement that a great slider needs to succeed in that way. As it stands, I struggle to see the role that makes the most sense for Swagerty. He couldn’t support a move to the rotation, but his stuff is not elite enough to be a late-inning option. I’d like to see more of Swagerty, as I can’t imagine the Cardinals drafted a guy in the second round to become a seventh-inning option down the road.

Our final pitcher of the game, preserving a lead in the bottom of the tenth inning, was Royals southpaw prospect Danny Duffy. Working the closer role, Duffy threw mostly fastballs, working 90-93 mph. I see a little bit of effort in his delivery, but he’s consistent, and showed good arm speed on a change-up, and got on top of his curveball. Law in his article called it a “well below-average vertical curveball at 73-74 mph,” but the lone curve we saw in Phoenix was a 75 mph offering with bite that froze Kyle Skipworth. Obviously Duffy needs to make sure his stuff is more consistent, but there are the outlines of three solid pitches that should mold into a solid big league starter.

Thoughts on the hitters from one game and two batting practices coming soon.

Once again, the Colorado Rockies rotation was among the best in baseball. ranking fifth in team FIP and fouth in team xFIP. The major factor for the Rockies was the 221 excellent innings thrown by Ubaldo Jimenez, but they received contributions from up and down the rotation, most notably from Jhoulys Chacin, Esmil Rogers, Jason Hammel, and, finally, Jeff Francis.

Francis missed the first 36 games of 2010 as part of recovery from a 2009 shoulder surgery which cost him the entire 2009 season. He pitched through August before suffering another injury to that shoulder which kept him out for much of the month and the first week of September. When Francis did pitch, though, he was solid, recording a 3.88 FIP and a 3.94 xFIP. Uncharacteristic struggles with runners on base (64.5% LOB) resulted in a 5.00 ERA, which may lead the Rockies and other clubs to believe that Francis took a step back in 2010.

The poor results may be one reason that the Rockies are likely to decline Francis’s $7 million option for 2011. More likely, it’s the fact that injuries have limited Francis to 248 innings from 2008-2010 that has the Rockies balking at the idea of guaranteeing a salary that calls for multiple WAR in 2011. The Rockies will look to bring Francis back, but there’s a good chance that other teams will be in the mix as well.

Starting pitchers are always a sought after commodity, and 2011 should be no different, particularly given how thin the free agent market is after Cliff Lee. The Brewers appear to be the most obvious target for Francis outside of Colorado, as their rotation is a complete question mark beyond Yovani Gallardo, Randy Wolf, and Chris Narveson. Most teams can use starting pitching depth and Francis has the ability to put up 2+ WAR next season, so other teams could jump in as well, but Milwaukee appears to be the best fit as of right now.

The Rockies are seeing some of their best players – most notably Troy Tulowitzki and Ubaldo Jimenez – receive raises this year as they move towards free agency. Their payroll in 2010 was nearly $10 million higher then its previous high. Between the elevating payroll and the depth of their pitching staff, retaining Francis at a risky $7 million may not be in their best interests, even though he’s basically a lock to provide that kind of value if he starts even 20-25 games. As other teams won’t be under these same kind of payroll constraints, Francis is likely to receive a deal that the Rockies can’t afford this offseason. With a rotation of Jimenez, Chacin, Rogers, Hammel, and Aaron Cook, the Rockies will be fine, even though they may take a step down from 2010.

The umpires have finally been announced for the World Series. The crew consists of John Hirschbeck (crew chief), Sam Holbrook, Bill Miller, Mike Winters, Jeff Kellogg, and Gary Darling. That list is in the order that they will work behind home plate.

Using a combination of Pitch F/X and game results (K/9 and BB/9), here is how the umpires rank from the most pitcher friendly to most hitter friendly:

Bill Miller
John Hirschbeck
Mike Winters
Gary Darling
Sam Holbrook
Jeff Kellogg

For a comparison, here are right and left handed strike zones for the two umpires on the extremes, Bill Miller and Jeff Kellogg (the rest of the umpire zones is available at the end of the article).

The scale given is the ratio of called strikes to the total number of called strikes and balls. The box is the rule book strike zone with the inner circle for reference only. The zone is from the hitter’s perspective looking home.

Right Handed Hitters

Bill Miller

Jeff Kellogg

Left Handed Hitters

Bill Miller

Jeff Kellogg

Hopefully, the umpires will not be involved in any major controversies this world series, but who knows. At least none of these umpires are at the extreme ends of the strike zone spectrum. Compared the previous playoff series’s this off season, this crew’s strike zone should be one of the more consistent ones.

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