Archive for October, 2010

Vlad, Murphy, And Potential Second Guessers

Ron Washington has released his lineup for Game 2, and, as Dave suggested and as many suspected, it will not include Vladimir Guerrero. There was a time that Vlad was a competent or even good right fielder, but a combination of years on the knee-destroying turf of Olympic Stadium in Montreal have rendered him effectively useless in the outfield. If you don’t believe me or didn’t catch the game last night, you can see it quite plainly in the videos of Guerrero’s two errors at the link in the first sentence.

Guerrero’s decline in the field evokes memories of Ken Griffey Jr late in his career, at least for me. Particularly, I wouldn’t be surprised if Vlad was now a -25 or -30 outfielder, as Griffey was with Cincinnati in 2007, at least according to UZR. With David Murphy as an aveage fielder and a comparable hitter, if not better, against right handed pitching, the decision is a no-brainer: Murphy should be in the outfield, and Vlad should be on the bench.

That said, if we count the difference in fielding as 30 runs per 150 games and call them equal hitters, the difference over the course of one game is a mere 0.2 runs. Obviously, a manger should want to wring every bit of extra win expectancy out of his roster as he can, but there’s a significant chance that this move ends up meaningless and it may even look poor if Murphy chokes. In the latter case, the second guessers will swarm the internet by the time the last out is recorded.

Just think – what if Murphy goes 0-4 with a key strikeout or double play? If Murphy makes an error in the outfield and the veteran and potential Hall of Famer in Vlad remains on the bench, what then? What if Murphy makes the last out with Vlad on the bench, or, even worse, in the on-deck circle?

These points would probably carry more weight if Murphy had received the start in game one, as at least we now have it burned into our eyes that Guerrero just can’t hack it in the outfield. Also, I have confidence in most baseball fans and much of the media to keep a level head and to realize that the process here was correct and that the results simply didn’t break correctly for Texas. Still, for all the logical, level-headed columnists, writers, bloggers, and fans, we also have those who are reactionary and refuse to look at these decisions with perspective.

The simple truth is that Washington has already made the correct choice. From here on out, it’s on the players. If Murphy doesn’t play up to his talent level, and he makes an error or fails at bat in a clutch situation, that cannot be blamed on Ron Washington. With this decision, he has given the Rangers a better chance to win, and any second guessing will simply be posturing with the help of hindsight.


Game Two Starters

In some ways, C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain are polar opposites. Wilson’s a lefty, while Cain throws with his right hand. Cain throws a ton of fastballs, while Wilson has basically abandoned his this year. Wilson is a guy who gets a lot of grounders, while Cain is one of the most prolific flyball pitchers in the game.

In how they achieved success this year, however, they are quite similar. Cain had the fifth-lowest BABIP (.260) of any starter in the National League. Wilson’s .271 BABIP was fifth lowest in the American League. His 5.3% HR/FB rate was lower than any other qualified AL starter, and while Cain’s 7.4% rate was only the 12th lowest in the NL, he’s posted well below-average rates in every single year of his career.

Both of these guys kept runs off the board by getting people to hit the ball at their defenders and by keeping their fly balls in the yard. As any regular FanGraphs reader can tell you, these are not things that are usually considered repeatable skills, as history has shown that most pitchers simply can’t sustain the kinds of performances that these guys put up this year.

In fact, when skeptics of xFIP want to point out why they don’t like the metric, Cain is invariably the first guy they point to. His career 3.45 ERA is nearly a full run lower than his 4.43 xFIP, and at 1,100 innings pitched, the sample size is getting fairly large. For various reasons, some of which we understand (park effects, batted-ball profile) and some of which we don’t, Cain’s continually outperformed his peripherals. Wilson was also able to pull that off this year, though he clearly doesn’t have Cain’s track record at succeeding this way.

The differences will be obvious. The similarities will be a bit more subtle. But, in the end, it should be a good match-up and a fun game to watch.


Okay, Time for My Surgery! Heading for the Doctor After Getting Bounced from the Playoffs

Within a few days of their seemingly invincible teams getting bounced from the playoffs, Placido Polanco and C.C. Sabathia announced they’d undergo near-immediate surgery, Sabathia on his knee and Polanco on his elbow. “[It] nagged me all year,” said Sabathia of the pain in his right knee. Of Polanco, the Philadelphia Inquirer wrote, “It was the middle of August, between his third and fourth cortisone injections, when Placido Polanco first acknowledged he’d probably need surgery on his left elbow following the season.”

Baseball players are taught to minimize pain, while castigated for hiding an injury. Ultimately, this philosophy isn’t particularly good for the players’ health, and it isn’t good for the team, either, when a player playing hurt botches a play. The logical tension may not be quite as stark as Pittsburgh Steeler linebacker James Harrison’s telling recent admission, “I don’t want to injure anybody… I try to hurt people,” but it’s a similar attempt to create a bright line out of a grey area. What’s worse, an article in yesterday’s New York Times reviews a study in the medical journal The Lancet that suggests that cortisone may actually have deleterious long-term health effects. (According to the study, “Corticosteroid injections reduced pain in the short term compared with other interventions, but this effect was reversed at intermediate and long terms.”) So Polanco may be paying for his four cortisone shots well down the line.

There are two issues to consider with pain and injury, then: the long-term health consequences, and the short-term game consequences. Will Carroll’s efforts notwithstanding, player health is still one of the less-understood areas of baseball analysis. We have an imperfect understanding both of the causes of injury and of the effects of playing through pain and injury. Players are lauded for playing through pain — Sabathia and Polanco had fine seasons, despite Sabathia’s carrying his 300-pound frame on an injured knee all year, and Polanco playing with bone fragments and chronic tendon damage in his elbow — but we don’t really know what the long-term consequences of playing through injury will be. (Alan Schwarz has done admirable work examining the effects of concussions, but that’s only one of many types of injuries that baseball players are likely to receive in the course of the job.) Because Sabathia is younger and is signed to a longer contract, the Yankees have a greater incentive to protect their investment than do the Phillies. But neither team has any financial incentive to worry about their player’s health beyond the length of their contract: it’s in their interest to patch the players up and get the maximum utility of them for the duration and no longer.

The short-term game consequences may be a more persuasive reason for the teams to take their players’ injuries more seriously. Sabathia obviously didn’t pitch well during the playoffs, allowing 11 runs in 16 innings, and going six innings or fewer in each of his three playoff starts — that, despite having gone more than six innings in 26 of his 34 starts this year. So, with the usual caveats about small sample size, it seems plausible that the injury that nagged him all year may have affected his stamina and effectiveness in the playoffs. Likewise, Polanco’s 6-for-29 in the LDS and LCS may suggest that he was playing at appreciably less than 100 percent. The Phillies have him under contract until 2012, so they have to weigh their need to win now — especially in the playoffs, when the end of the season is always perilously close — with their needs to keep him healthy for the next two years. Obviously, neither Sabathia nor Polanco was the biggest reason the Phillies and Yankees lost. Still, it’s easy in hindsight to say, if they were going to lose anyway, they might as well have benched them. That’s a facile conclusion, but the premise is inarguable: the players were playing through chronic pain, they played poorly, and the teams lost.

Obviously, what we need most of all is a better understanding of health and pain. Clubhouses would benefit from encouraging players not to ignore pain but to acknowledge it, and openly and honestly assess whether they’ll play better tomorrow if they sit today. There’s no way to play a completely pain-free 162 games of baseball, but there are ways to make the pain more manageable. The first thing that needs to be done is to acknowledge the realities and consequences of that pain. Only then can teams make informed and educated decisions about their players’ health.


Szymborski’s MLEs: Five Notable Pitchers

Yesterday, in these electronic pages, I discussed briefly the significance of the offseason to the baseballing enthusiast — namely, as a time both to (a) process the season that was and (b) begin to acquaint oneself with the season that will be.

Over the next four or five months, we will be treated to a surfeit of data: projections (dependable and not so much), roster and depth-chart changes, rumors, etc.

In fact, some of the aforementioned data has already been made available. Almost two weeks ago now, beloved Pole Dan Szymborski released for the public’s consideration the minor league translations (zMLEs) that inform, in part, his ZiPS projection system. Though, as Szymborski shouts at the top of his lungs, the numbers are subject to all manner of caveat, they still provide an interesting point of departure for developing ideas about players come 2011.

Here are five notable pitcher zMLEs, with notations of varying helpfulness. As to what constitutes “notable,” there’s no hard definition, but I’ve generally looked for pitchers with more than 10 starts and have omitted more well-known prospects — like Jeremy Hellickson or Travis Wood, for example.

Ages are as of today, October 28th. FIPs are approximate; pitchers, ordered according to author’s whim. Five hitter zMLEs will appear in this space tomorrow.

Name: Daryl Thompson, 24, RHP
Organization: Cincinnati Level: Double-A
Actual: 51.0 IP, 12/12 GS/G, 9.18 K/9, 1.94 BB/9, 0.53 HR/9, 2.63 FIP
zMLE: 46.3 IP, 12/12 GS/G, 7.38 K/9, 2.72 BB/9, 1.17 HR/9, 4.31 FIP
Notes
• Was 0-5 with a 3.71 ERA despite those fine peripherals — which, that makes him a good buy-low candidate so far as investing one’s affections goes.
• One thing about him: his groundball rates have tended to be in the mid- or high-30s, which is quite low.
• One other thing about him: he had shoulder surgery last season and pitched less than 30 innings in 2009 as a result.
• Also missed time in 2010 with shouder tightness and the like.
• Is pitching for Peoria in Arizona Fall League as we speak. Literally, right now. Believe me!

Name: Tommy Milone, 23, LHP
Organization: Washington Level: Double-A
Actual: 158.0 IP, 27/27 GS/G, 8.83 K/9, 1.31 BB/9, 0.57 HR/9, 2.57 FIP
zMLE: 151.3 IP, 27/27 GS/G, 6.78 K/9, 1.84 BB/9, 1.01 HR/9, 3.92 FIP
Notes
• Is a “soft-tossing lefty,” according to John Sickels.
• Has an “excellent changeup,” also according to John Sickels.
• Will likely someday own Boston-area watering hole and install former pitching coach as bartender.
• Will also marry Mary Steenburgen, probably.
• Actually, just checked: already is married to Mary Steenburgen. My B.

Name: Scott Diamond, 24, LHP
Organization: Atlanta Level: Triple-A
Actual: 56.1 IP, 10/10 GS/G, 5.27 K/9, 2.40 BB/9, 0.32 HR/9, 3.34 FIP
zMLE: 53.0 IP, 10/10 GS/G, 4.59 K/9, 2.89 BB/9, 0.68 HR/9, 4.26 FIP
Notes
• Also pitched 102.1 IP at Double-A. Produced slightly more Ks, slightly more BBs, slightly higher zFIP.
• Has induced grounders at above a 50% rate in minors.
• Will almost definitely be cause of regrettable headline “Diamond in the Rough” — if he hasn’t been already, I mean.
• Prediction: Will finish career with higher total WAR than Thomas Diamond.
• Hails from Guelph, which is either (a) a Canadian hamlet or (b) a placename in every C.S. Lewis novel.

Name: John Lamb, 20, LHP
Organization: Kansas City Level: High-A
Actual: 74.2 IP, 13/13 GS/G, 10.85 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, 0.12 HR/9, 1.69 FIP
zMLE: 67.3 IP, 13/13 GS/G, 6.68 K/9, 2.67 BB/9, 0.40 HR/9, 3.33 FIP
Notes
• I’m sure there are even more caveats about Class A pitchers than the two higher levels, but Lamb’s numbers are striking.
• Was ranked ninth-best in Royal organization by our man Marc Hulet prior to season.
• Was ranked 10th by John Sickels prior to 2010 season and fifth after it.
• Finished year with Double-A Northwest Arkansas Naturals, which, it deserves to be noted, is a strange name for a team.
• Another thing that deserves to be noted: Naturals is maybe not quite as strange as “Thunder Chickens,” the name that finished second in an online fan poll.

Name: Bryan Augenstein, 24, RHP
Organization: Arizona St. Louis (courtesy reader WY) Level: Triple-A
Actual: 120.2 IP, 22/22 GS/G 7.53 K/9, 2.61 BB/9, 0.90 HR/9, 3.86 FIP
zMLE: 123.7 IP, 22/22 GS/G, 6.33 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 1.24 HR/9, 4.62 FIP
Notes
• John Sickels (a) calls him a “srike-throwing innings-eater” and (b) is smarter than me.
• That said, he (i.e. Augenstein) featured one of the better translated K/BB differentials in all of the minors.
• He also seems to’ve sustained average-y groundball rates.
• Had a .385 BABIP-against and 58.2% LOB rate, largely because Reno (and the PCL, generally) is a nightmare.
• Studies find that Reno is a nightmare for a number of other reasons.

Groundball rates are courtesy of StatCorner and First Inning.


Cliff Lee Was Not Living on the Edge

Sometimes a graphic can make the obvious even more obvious. Anyone watching last night knows that Cliff Lee did not look like the guy who took the Rays and the Yankees to school. A look at his pitch plots makes the reason clear.

First, against the Yankees, you’ll notice that Lee avoided a particular part of the zone:

There is that one conspicuous cutter sitting dead center, but nothing else comes even close to it. You see, for the most part, cutters in the bottom half of the zone, change-ups low and away to righties, and curveballs low in or below the zone. If you happen to find someone with baseball savvy who had not watched this game and showed him this strike zone plot, he’d probably be able to tell you that the pitcher had great success.

And then there was last night:

There are a number of concerning aspects of last night’s strike zone plot, not least of which is the number of pitches near the center of the zone. The top-right portion of the plot is also concerning. As you can see, those four curveballs had no chance. Just three of the 11 curves he threw were strikes, none swinging, while against the Yankees he threw eight of 16 for strikes, including one swing and miss. Last night he managed just two curveballs low, while he did it consistently against the Yanks.

What further hurt Lee was his lack of a changeup. Against the Yankees he threw it 14 times and got nine strikes, three of them swinging. Last night he broke it out just five times, and each time it came early in the count. Three were strikes, but none generated swings and misses. Each time the Giants swung at the change, they put it in play.

Finally, the cutter caused him some problems, too. In both games he kept the cutter mostly in the lower half of the zone, but the difference was in how he painted the edges. Against the Yankees you can see the black dots spreading pretty far to each side of the zone. Against the Giants there aren’t many cutters on the outer thirds. The Giants, unsurprisingly, put far more cutters in play, 22.6 percent, than the Yankees did, 15 percent, even though they whiffed more (16.1 percent to 10 percent).

No pitcher, not even Cliff Lee, can be perfect every time. After three incredible postseason starts, he finally had a game where he didn’t have complete control of his pitches. Sometimes aces can gut through starts like that. Other times they’re going to get hit around. The Giants had their moment in Game 1, but unless they can complete the sweep this won’t be the last they see of Lee. In Game 5 I’d expect Lee’s strike zone plot to more resemble his ALCS start than his first World Series one.


As an end note, I think Tim Marchman nails it with this parody quote:

“I didn’t have my good stuff going tonight,” he said. “But I doubt that made a difference. I’m not a six-sided die, but mathematically I act like one and function with surprisingly little agency. Any game I pitch is just an expression of my true talent, that of my opponents and something that isn’t quite what the average person means when they say ‘luck’ but works more or less the same way. I hope for a 90th percentile outcome every time out, but to me it’s really all about sticking near my mean outcome and giving the guys a chance to win.”


Rangers Can’t Do That Again

In the grand scheme of things, Vladimir Guerrero didn’t matter last night. The Giants would have won that game no matter who was playing right field. But after watching Guerrero stumble around, Washington cannot put him back in the field this series. Right? Maybe not.

“No, I don’t,” Washington said when asked if he’ll have to reconsider the idea of using Guerrero in the field with the designated hitter not in effect. “A couple balls got by him.”

That is one way to describe what happened when the ball was hit his way. I think most people would go with something a bit more accurate, like “That was the worst outfield defense anyone has ever played.” This wasn’t just a ball dropping in that we think Murphy could have gotten to – last night was simply confirmation that Vladimir Guerrero should never wear a glove again.

The first inning pop-up that Kinsler caught and turned into a double play was a routine fly ball – Guerrero wasn’t anywhere close to it. If the Rangers’ second baseman doesn’t make a tremendous play, the Giants would have been on the scoreboard in the first inning. Then there were the obvious miscues – the inability to cut off a ball down the line; the horrifying misplay of Renteria’s base hit that gave him two extra bases; and then kicking around the ball in the corner. It was painful to watch. And, if Ron Washington is trying to win this series, we can’t see it again.

Joe has already laid out the case for why David Murphy is a better player against right-handers than Guerrero, and that should be fairly obvious to everyone at this point – he hit better against RHP this year, and the defensive gap is enormous. Guerrero’s problems are probably big enough that it would be smarter to start Jeff Francoeur or Julio Borbon over Guerrero if they were the only option.

Last night, Guerrero playing the field didn’t change the outcome. Tonight, or in Game 6 and 7, it could. The Rangers do not have the luxury of hoping that Guerrero’s inability to field the position doesn’t end up costing them games. It’s the World Series – put your best team on the field and give yourself the best chance to win.

The Rangers best team does not include Vladimir Guerrero wearing a glove.


At Game 1 of the World Series: Overflow Media

If you think that there’s a pecking order for media in postseason, well, you’d be right. The BBWAA directs the process with writers that covers clubs daily getting a place, with outlets that have daily writers for the two clubs that are playing getting more slots.

So, where does everyone else go?

For AT&T Park, overflow media is parked far away from the comforts of the regular pressbox perched above home plate.

You’ll see us… We’re the green set of seats at the very top of the 300 level just off the third baseline from the foul pole. Who’s sitting here? Well, I’m parked next to ESPN’s Jim Caple and just to his left, SI.com’s Jon Heyman is taking it all in. To my right, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez is just now Tweeting away. A few rows even higher than I, Steve Phillips is perched.

We’re all exposed to the elements…. Now, it’s San Francisco and a balmy 62 at game time, but there’s clouds… every once in a while I keep thinking I feel a sprinkle. No one is griping, for heaven sake… it’s the World Series. But, it shows that for the writers, it is work. Even if it’s covering a kid’s game.


World Series Game 1 Live Blog


FanGraphs Audio: Playoff Preview Pod, Vol. 3

Episode Fifty
In which the panel, like Rintrah, roars and shakes its fires.

Headlines
Unfettered Vitriol (Part One Million)
The Psychology of the Ron Washington
Cliff Lee and the Future: Two Immovable Forces
… and other startling declarations!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Resident Philosocator
Joe Pawl, Our Man in NYC

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


At Game 1 of the World Series: Prelude – Different Is Good

As I settle into the overflow pressbox here at AT&T Park (no joke, it’s at the top of the 300 level… Look for the green section at the top of the ballpark up the 3rd baseline when the game begins to air) two things  strike me: This World Series is affirmation for Bud Selig, and it’s a different world than the last time the Giants were in the Fall Classic.

Over and over, the idea that the Yankees were beat by the Rangers and to a lesser extent the Giants winning over the Phillies means that – in a nutshell – variety is the spice of life.

Or is it, money doesn’t always trump smarts?

On the latter, consider… The Rangers Opening Day payroll of $55,250,544 – the 27th ranked payroll out of all 30 clubs – is almost $600,000 less than the Opening Day payroll the Rangers had… in 2005. And that’s not accounting inflation. For the Giants, they beat the Phillies, who fielded MLB’s 4th highest Opening Day payroll ($141,928,379), but still ranked 9th out of 30 at $98,641,333. Opening Day payroll for the Giants this season increased 19 percent from last year from $82,616,450. Still, the fact that you have two teams with an Opening Day payroll that was under $100 million is good for the overall. “Hope” is no longer some foreign concept.

This isn’t to say that another Yankees-Phillies World Series wouldn’t have been good, rather that the unexpected nature of the two clubs that made it to baseball’s premier event is a sign that the game, as a whole, will benefit.

I don’t blame FOX, TBS, and ESPN for flooding their MLB schedules with Yankees-Red Sox tilts. They are generated from ratings, meaning fans are the ultimate decider in what you watch.

But, as MLB Network makes its way into more homes, and the idea that yes, you don’t have to have the biggest, baddest level of player payroll to be competitive on a given year, average fans will start to shift from their zombie state into the full palette that is offered by 30 clubs as opposed to just a handful.

As for the Giants, the sea of orange and black that is descending on AT&T Park is focused far differently than in 2002 when Dusty Baker handed the game ball to Russ Ortiz in Game 6, and thus, in a most superstitious way, jinxed the Giants from winning their first World Series since jumping coasts in 1958.

Then, the focus was Barry Bonds. Where it was “chicks dig the long ball”, if you excuse the sexual innuendo, 2010 may go down as “chicks dig the slider.”

Instead of a slugging-based club with an alleged steroid user at the helm, its heroes are a Freak of a pitcher (Lincecum), and a player snatched up on waivers (Cody Ross). The roster at least feels more functional than dysfunctional than that 2002 team and fans seem as jacked – possibly more – than when they were in the Series the last time.

The one thing about this Series is it will be historic. No matter the outcome, you either get a winner for a franchise that had never won a postseason series, let alone a World Series (Rangers), or a storied franchise who has had to point to their days in New York as glory finally getting to say that their relocation partner from the ‘50s in LA isn’t the only one to win a Fall Classic.

So, if you only watch the World Series, and haven’t been bit by baseball’s regular season bug unless it’s been the Red Sox or Yankees, you’re in for a treat. This one feels different, and in that, it’s all good.