Game Two Starters
In some ways, C.J. Wilson and Matt Cain are polar opposites. Wilson’s a lefty, while Cain throws with his right hand. Cain throws a ton of fastballs, while Wilson has basically abandoned his this year. Wilson is a guy who gets a lot of grounders, while Cain is one of the most prolific flyball pitchers in the game.
In how they achieved success this year, however, they are quite similar. Cain had the fifth-lowest BABIP (.260) of any starter in the National League. Wilson’s .271 BABIP was fifth lowest in the American League. His 5.3% HR/FB rate was lower than any other qualified AL starter, and while Cain’s 7.4% rate was only the 12th lowest in the NL, he’s posted well below-average rates in every single year of his career.
Both of these guys kept runs off the board by getting people to hit the ball at their defenders and by keeping their fly balls in the yard. As any regular FanGraphs reader can tell you, these are not things that are usually considered repeatable skills, as history has shown that most pitchers simply can’t sustain the kinds of performances that these guys put up this year.
In fact, when skeptics of xFIP want to point out why they don’t like the metric, Cain is invariably the first guy they point to. His career 3.45 ERA is nearly a full run lower than his 4.43 xFIP, and at 1,100 innings pitched, the sample size is getting fairly large. For various reasons, some of which we understand (park effects, batted-ball profile) and some of which we don’t, Cain’s continually outperformed his peripherals. Wilson was also able to pull that off this year, though he clearly doesn’t have Cain’s track record at succeeding this way.
The differences will be obvious. The similarities will be a bit more subtle. But, in the end, it should be a good match-up and a fun game to watch.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
“As any regular FanGraphs reader can tell you, these are not things that are usually considered repeatable skills, as history has shown that most pitchers simply can’t sustain the kinds of performances that these guys put up this year.”
Perhaps the metric set should incorporate pitcher’s performance with RISP. Cain is the type of pitcher that gets after the hitter, has some trouble putting away hitters with absence of true ‘go-to’ pitch, but ultimately is a bulldog in tight situations. He’s a very consistent pitcher who should sustain his growth. Put him down for an ERA between 2.8 and 3.3 next year with 15+ W’s.
I can basically accept xFIP as applying to pitchers not named Matt Cain and Francisco Cordero. There’s no doubt some others too.
his park helps, i’m sure. does xFIP account for park factors at all? I don’t believe FIP does because it’s based on performance, not expected performance on home runs, but I could be wrong.
Here’s the xFIP formula: xFIP = ((13*(.106*# of fly balls))+(3*BB+HBP-IBB)-(2*K))/IP+constant
That means a fly-ball pitcher in a park that doesn’t reward fly balls (0.885 park factor for home-runs), that is notably more difficult to hit the ball out to right field (which means the lefty matchups Cain often faces as a RHP) probably drops his xFIP a reasonable amount. I’d love to see xFIP data on other right-handed flyball pitchers in AT&T (just don’t have the time to put it together myself).
Dave somewhat covers the topic in http://www.ussmariner.com/2010/09/16/how-not-to-use-park-factors/ this article. What he says there could explain why Barry Zito, a lefty fly ball pitcher, doesn’t get the same xFIP “advantage” Cain most likely sees. I wonder if I (or someone else) could dig up home/road splits for Cain’s xFIP.
Just check FanGraphs splits.
4.47 xFIP at home, 4.39 on the road (in his career).
Yeah, I was trying to look for that but it was almost game time and I was still at work. Thanks, Gigantes.
Career:
Home: ERA: 3.19 xFIP: 4.47 Difference: 1.28
Away: ERA: 3.76 xFIP: 4.39 Difference: 0.63
So while xFIP still says Cain’s ERA isn’t sustainable away from AT&T, it certainly makes his higher ERA less surprising. To add to that, Cain pitches in the NL West where he gets to visit Petco and Dodger’s Stadium (along with Coors, which is becoming less of crazy hitter’s park now that the humidor is in) many times a year.
I’d love to keep looking into this more.
Yeah he’s definitely helped out at home. But that would be expected for a flyball pitcher in AT&T.
He still out-performs his peripherals on the road though, just at a lower level.
Gigantes? This has to be Gigantes4life from PSD. I’m Matt-the-great there, but you might not remember me. Although we run in the same Saber crowd there. (I pray to Babe Ruth that this is who I think it is, or I will look foolish; although I am quite drunk.)
Yeah you’re drunk man.
But also correct, I am the one you speak of. And I remember you.
Thank fuck. hahaha
why aren’t you in the MLB Mock Offseason?
xFIP and DIPs is known not to apply to knuckleball pitchers. Is it that inconceivable that there is a sliding scale of pitchers for which it does/does not apply, and that for most pitchers there is simply too much noise to tell?
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