Derek Jeter is not the best defensive shortstop in the American League. That is not really a controversial statement, and you don’t have to be a believer in UZR to agree with the sentiment. So, why does he keep winning the Gold Glove award?
If there’s a topic that brings up a vocal debate among those that follow baseball outside the lines, the Hall of Fame voting results each year rates right up there with the best of them. In terms of looking at the Veterans Committee vote, and specifically the absence of Marvin Miller from the Hall, the question comes down to either, “How can you not have Miller in the Hall of Fame?”, or “Miller’s impact is not as great as it’s often portrayed.”
Indeed, the man that was instrumental in pulling the players together, bringing out a cohesive unionized force to be reckoned with, has done nothing more than bring salary arbitration, free agency, and many would say, labor strife, to the history of Major League Baseball. He led the MLBPA from 1966 to 1982 and is still talked of in his relationship to those that have followed, namely Don Fehr, and now Michael Weiner.
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This edition of Offseason Notes has the good face. It’s a fact!
SCOUT Batting Leaderboard
The Leaderboard
Here is the SCOUT batting leaderboard for the Arizona Fall League. (Click here for more on SCOUT, the metric that’s “sweeping” the “nation.”)
Depth is still a developing concept for this Houston Astros farm system. It’s hard to have a failure at the top of the 2006 draft and a calculated decision to pass on the 2007 draft (costing them Derek Dietrich, Brett Eibner and Chad Bettis) and maintain organizational depth. But it’s coming, and after one more Bobby Heck draft in 2011, they should be able to make their way up Hulet’s farm system rankings next season. I have faith in Heck, though he needs to exhibit better drafting from rounds 3 to eight or so.
I legitimately have no idea what to expect for Juan Uribe’s next contract. The results should be pretty interesting.
The Houston Astros
2010 MLB Record: 76-86 (4th in the NL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 29th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
1. Jordan Lyles, RHP
Acquired: 2008 supplemental 1st round (South Carolina HS)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Likelihood to Reach Peak: 50%
Notes: Lyles reached Triple-A at the age of 19 and a did a nice job of holding his own with a 3.86 FIP in 31.2 innings of work (despite a .406 BABIP). The right-hander spent the majority of the year in Double-A where he posted a strikeout rate of 8.15 K/9 in 127.0 innings while also showing good control (2.48 BB/9). Lyles doesn’t have a huge ceiling but he profiles as a durable No. 3 starter, who could post a few 4.0 WAR seasons during his peak. His repertoire includes a low-90s fastball, curveball, and changeup. Lyles could stand to use his legs more in his delivery, as his current delivery puts a lot of strain on his upper body. Despite his solid control numbers, he does not have an overly-fluid pitching motion.
For the second time in two winters, Hideki Matsui will be hitting the open market. In his age 36 campaign with the Angels, Matsui hit .274/.361/.459, good for a 125 wRC+. That performance is right in line with Matsui’s play with the Yankees in his final three years. In 558 plate appearances in 2010, that comes out to 1.9 WAR as the Angels’ primary DH.
Going to alter the format of this a little bit. Since I have argued that prospects should be evaluated in the context of the WAR they might produce, my Must-Follow Prospect articles for each team will evaluate those players in that context. I think this will help blend the statistical coverage into the scouting opinion that has me choose which players to focus on.
Cynically, it’s hard for me to see more than one must-follow prospect in the Astros farm system. This is an organization that didn’t value the draft prior to 2010, failing to sign numerous players that went on to be drafted highly elsewhere, and then put together a 2010 draft that I don’t think valued upside properly. The team is starting to build a nice bit of pitching depth, and should one day be able to field an above-average rotation. But for spots on a down-the-line depth chart to be depended on acquired talent from outside the organization is damning.
Jordan Lyles, the team’s top prospect by a country mile, is the only prospect in the organization who Astros fans can have reasonable expectations that he’ll exceed four wins above replacement. It was a benefit to the fan base that Lyles struggled by traditional numbers in a six-start trial at Triple-A, because before then, his manager was talking about a potential September call-up. The team correctly resisted that urge, and they must do the same out of Spring Training to ensure the pitcher is around in 2017. It might only be until then, said without snark, that the team is contending again.
After the jump, a look at Lyles in the context of the statistics that will be used to determine his worth.
In a free agent market brimming with capable relief options, Koji Uehara is an enticing option. Originally brought over as a starter, Uehara finished his Orioles’ career as their closer. Besides his majestic sideburns, the most noticeable tool in his shed is excellent control. The 2009 season may have marked Uehara’s first on American soil and by extension his first in the frigid American League East, but he still managed a strikeout-to-walk ratio of four.
Uehara worked exclusively out of the bullpen in 2010 in between injuries and topped himself. In 44 innings, he struck out 55 and walked five. Uehara’s season included no intentional walks, no hit by pitches, and a single wild pitch. Keith Law wrote that his control plays up even more in the bullpen, citing a “grade 70 or better” on the 20-80 scouting scale. The numbers certainly support the assertion.
Kicking off projection season, as usual, are the 2011 Bill James Handbook Projections, courtesy of Baseball Info Solutions.
They’re available right now in the player pages!
