Archive for November, 2010

Bumgarner’s Accomplishment Goes Beyond Age

Last night, Madison Bumgarner turned in eight scoreless innings in a World Series game, earning the victory for the Giants in game four. Bumgarner also recorded six strikeouts and allowed only five baserunners in the entire outing (three hits, two walks). And, to top it all off, Bumgarner accomplished this as a rookie, starting his first World Series game as a mere 21 year old, only adding to the grandiosity of the achievement. Bumgarner’s heroics was the focal point of the media as the game concluded: after Ken Rosenthal finished his post-game interview with Madison Bumgarner and turned to interview Aubrey Huff, he asked (paraphrasing) “And all that at 21. How does he do it?”

The fact that Bumgarner is even making a World Series start at age 21 is remarkable. Bumgarner became only the 16th pitcher 21 years old or younger to ever start a playoff game, and the latest since Jaret Wright with the Indians in 1997. Unsurprisingly, Bumgarner’s start ranks in the upper echelon of this group. He is the sixth of the 21 or younger group not to allow a run, with his 80 game score ranking 5th (barely besting Bret Saberhagen in 1985’s seventh game) and his .472 WPA ranking 4th (above Whitey Ford in 1950’s fourth game).

Bumgarner’s performance is indeed one of the best among those in his age group. But – and a postseason with as many transcendent pitching performance as 2010 can make us forget this – pitching performances like the one we saw on Sunday night are rare from pitchers of any age. We don’t have to limit the comparisons to other World Series rookies or youngsters to come to the conclusion that Bumgarner pitched remarkably.

The games started by Tommy Hunter and Madison Bumgarner represent the 1,231 and 1,232 pitching starts in World Series history. Only 137 of them have seen a pitcher throw at least eight innings and allow zero earned runs. The number drops to 27 when we restrict ourselves to the modern era (1969-present) and only 13 in the Wild Card era (1993-present). Bumgarner’s game score of 80 ranks tied for 84th all-time. Only 19 pitchers have bested that game score since 1969, and only seven (Roger Clemens, Cliff Lee, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, Chris Carpenter, Josh Beckett, and Randy Johnson) have done it since 1993.

There’s no doubt that Bumgarner’s age makes his achievement more impressive, both from the emotional and mental aspect as well as the sheer difficulty of accomplishing something of this degree in one’s first 22 years on this planet. But the greatness of this start goes beyond Bumgarner’s age. Rarely do we see pitchers dominate opposing hitters as Bumgarner did in the World Series, regardless of their age or experience level, and that’s what truly makes Sunday night’s start one for the ages.


Szymborski’s MLEs: Five Notable (Double-A) Batters

In my two most recent dispatches from the front lines of baseballing analysis, I’ve submitted for the reader’s consideration some notable zMLEs — that is, minor league translations courtesy of beloved Pole Dan Szymborski.

Though, as Szymborski shouts at the top of his lungs, the numbers are subject to all manner of caveat, they still provide an interesting point of departure for developing ideas about players come 2011.

Below are five notable Double-A batter zMLEs, accompanied by notations of varying utility. As to what constitutes “notable,” there’s no hard definition, but I’ve generally looked for hitters with at least 100 ABs and have omitted more well-known prospects — like Devin Mesoraco or Mike Moustakas, for example.

Ages are as of today, November 1st. The wOBAs (for the MLEs, that is) are approximate; players, ordered according to author’s whim.

Name: Brandon Guyer, 24, CF
Organization: Chicago (NL) Level: Double-A
Actual: 410 PA, .344/.398/.588 (.371 BABIP), .452 wOBA
zMLE: 410 PA, .284/.327/.462 (.323 BABIP), .344 wOBA
Notes
• Was repeating Double-A after doing this through 205 PA in 2009: .190/.236/.291 (.223 BABIP), .238 wOBA.
• Of course, was also in High-A in 2009 and raked: 305 PA, .347/.407/.453 (.380 BABIP), .410 wOBA.
The most recent iteration of CHONE projects him as roughly league average (-4 runs) in center field.
• Was on neither Baseball America’s nor John Sickels’ (preliminary) prospect list for Cubs.
• Currently playing for Tigres de Aragua of Venzuelan League, slashing .333/.437/.417 in 60 AB.

El Tigres!

Name: Dave Sappelt, 23, CF
Organization: Cincinnati Level: Double-A
Actual: 372 PA, .361/.416/.548 (.394 BABIP), .421 wOBA
zMLE: 372 PA, .290/.338/.432 (.330 BABIP), .341 wOBA
Notes
• Was also promoted to Triple-A, where he did this: 115 PA, .324/.365/.481 (.362 BABIP), .374 wOBA.
• Per zMLE, that line looks like this: 115 PA, .275/.319/.422 (.312 BABIP), .327 wOBA.
• The most recent CHONE projection has him at .271/.313/.394 — and +10 runs in center field.
• It’s very possible — at least according to the numbers — that he’s an average major leaguer right now.
• Also was on neither BA’s nor Sickels’ respective lists last year.

Name: Steve Lombardozzi, 22, 2B
Organization: Washington Level: Double-A
Actual: 118 PA, .295/.373/.524 (.306 BABIP), .396 wOBA
zMLE: 118 PA, .259/.328/.426 (.291 BABIP), .333 wOBA
Notes
• Is noted, in BA’s preseason Prospect Handbook, for being “hard-nosed.”
• Is predicted, in same text, to become “a sparkplug in the Nick Punto mold.”
• Nick Punto, age-21 season (1999), at High-A: 478 PA, .305/.404/.388 (.353 BABIP).
• Lombardozzi at High-A this season: 507 PA, .293/.370/.405 (.336 BABIP).
• That’s pretty similar, although I’m guessing Lombardozzi hits a home run more than once every 189 ABs as a major leaguer.

Name: Charlie Blackmon, 24, CF
Organization: Colorado Level: Double-A
Actual: 381 PA, .297/.360/.484 (.309 BABIP), .381 wOBA
zMLE: 381 PA, .277/.326/.428 (.306 BABIP), .333 wOBA
Notes
• Is closest thing to actual prospect on this list, ranking 12th in organization on Baseball America’s preseason list.
• Looks like he ranked somewhere around there on Sickels’ list, too.
• Sickels said he’s a “terrific glove in center.”
• BA said, “Needs to improve his jumps and reads so he doesn’t have to rely as much on his speed.”
• CHONE says he’s basically a league-average center fielder.
• Who ought we to trust in this epic battle of prospect mavenry?!?
• In any case, is having a pretty wicked AFL so far with Scottsdale: 35 AB, .286/.375/.571, 3 HR, 5 BB, 1 K.

Name: Robinson Chirinos, 26, C
Organization: Chicago (NL) Level: Double-A
Actual: 318 PA, .314/.409/.576 (.308 BABIP), .424 wOBA
zMLE: 318 PA, .271/.347/.451 (.289 BABIP), .353 wOBA
Notes
• Yes, yes, yes: he was old for his level this year.
• But also, please consider: he converted to catcher from infield in mid-2008.
• Walked 42 times, struck out only 35 this season.
• CHONE has him as a .261/.341/.427 true-talent hitter.
• Please, people, give both peace and Robinson Chirinos a chance.


The Mets Hire Sandy Alderson

Hope is a cheap harlot to employ whenever a mediocre team changes general managers, meaning few should be surprised to see the Mets fan base embrace Sandy Alderson. Reassuring for those fanatics is how Alderson’s history suggests the admiration will be more than a fling or temporary affair. What Alderson means to the position depends on perspective. Call him the perfect compromise to the old and new school. A well-connected quantitatively conscious forward thinker, Alderson is not without his question marks, making him an embodiment of the roster he inherits.

Pick the most skeptical question asked of Alderson’s candidacy and one can find a match on the Mets. How long will you be here? Easily could be asking David Wright the same. How is your health? Carlos Beltran and Jason Bay. Can you recapture that success from way back when that made you special? Jose Reyes. How will you deal with change? Okay, that question is best asked to opposing forces by Johan Santana. Clearly, the metaphor has run its course.

The point to take away is that while Alderson and his roster have question marks, they also have the star power to intrigue. The supporting cast for those stars needs work and that’s fine. That’s why Alderson is there. His ability to find talent for marginal costs should separate him from previous Mets’ general managers. This will make the snarky parts of the Mets’ fan base cringe a bit, but Alderson’s job does not deviate greatly from the one Jack Zduriencik walked into. The difference being that Alderson’s starting roster is in better shape.

Who knows what the Mets’ roster is going to look like in three months or six, but there are enough options to create some moist spitballing sessions. Alderson’s comment about not writing players off without considering everything raises the possibility of a Luis Castillo platoon alongside someone like Joaquin Arias. Unsexy off the bat, Castillo will make $6 million next season whether the Mets release or play him. Playing him against righties isn’t the worst idea in the world, as he’s reached base against them roughly 38% of the time since 2008.

An outfield with Jason Bay, Carlos Beltran, and Angel Pagan is not hard to imagine. Pagan’s inability to hit left-handed pitching means someone like Nick Evans will likely get a share of at-bats, too. Would the Mets tamper with the thought of sliding Beltran to right field on the days Pagan plays, or do they err to keeping the number of moving parts to a minimal, thus leaving Beltran in center regardless of Pagan’s presence.

Josh Thole figures to catch most days and Ike Davis will play first base. That’s about it for the starting nine, with whoever the day’s starting pitcher is filling in the blank. Don’t forget about the farm system and encroaching talents like Fernando Martinez, Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Lucas Duda, Reese Havens, and Jenrry Mejia. Not elite talents (minus Mejia) but enough to potentially land the Mets a starting pitcher if need be – and need most certainly be with Santana out for at least a little while.

The ability to focus on the pitching and bench side of the roster is one of the more incredible aspects of this situation: how often does a general manager take over with the ability to make minimal changes to his starting lineup without settling for below average play? The Mets are unlikely to challenge the Phillies or Braves legitimately next season. Some meaningful baseball late, though? That is not out of the question.

Keep in mind: this team won 79 games despite 20-year-old Ruben Tejada tallying as many plate appearances as Beltran, and despite Rod Barajas, Jeff Francoeur, Alex Cora, Jesus Feliciano, Gary Matthews Jr., Mike Jacobs, and Frank Catalanotto combining for 1,139 plate appearances (more than Bay and Wright’s sum) and a .276 on-base percentage. Additionally, the Mets had a dozen different pitchers getting a start, including Raul Valdez and Fernando Nieve, and Elmer Dessens (4.72 FIP, 5.56 xFIP) made more high leverage appearances than Hisanori Takahashi (3.65 FIP, 4.01 xFIP). Offensively, Wright had a career worst season in high leverage spots, while Beltran having his worst batting average (on balls in play as well) since 2000.

There’s talent in these here waters. Alderson just has to clear up the algae around the edges.