Archive for November, 2010

Justin Upton’s Future Trade Value vs Gary Sheffield’s Career Trade Value

In writing about the Justin Upton situation last week, Keith Law made an excellent comparison. One possible reason why the Diamondbacks might trade Upton is because of his attitude, but it doesn’t appear to be too compelling a case. Wrote Law, “He’s not Milton Bradley, though, and if he’s Gary Sheffield, well, that one worked out OK.”

OK, indeed. In 2015 Sheffield will have a Hall of Fame case for the BBWAA to consider. Just see how he compares to 2007 inductee Tony Gwynn.

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San Diego Padres Farm System

The two homegrown members of this year’s stable San Diego Padres rotation, Mat Latos and Wade LeBlanc, are a perfect illustration for the organization’s domestic scouting strategy. No team seems so dogmatic in the belief system that a team should build its farm system by spending big on boom-or-bust high school talent, and create organizational depth with slot-signing collegiate talent. In the 2006 draft, LeBlanc was chosen 272 places ahead of Latos in the draft. But when push came to shove, Latos’ bonus of $1.25 million more than doubled LeBlanc’s (590K), and in this instance, the Padres hit with both. Latos is the star for which they invested, and LeBlanc the dependable asset they believed he was. When scouting strategies reap their rewards, they do so in a big way.

LeBlanc and Latos also make for happier examples than using, say, the team’s first pick in 2004. Or 2007. Or 2008. You see how dangerous a trap negativity can be? Ultimately, this is a farm system that is decidedly mediocre, certainly salvaged by the last regime’s (impressive) insistence on establishing the Padres as players in the international scouting market. While Latos and LeBlanc might leave San Diego to say its method is tried and true, it also feels a bit aged and stubborn. Modernization is necessary, while proper development of the team’s in-house talent could leave this new front office with plenty of talent.

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Jeter Is the New Manny

Derek Jeter and Manny Ramirez are about as different as could be. No one has ever referred to Manny as The Captain, nor will you see Jeter selling his neighbors grill on Ebay. Even as players, their skillsets are polar opposites. However, with each passing day in the negotiations between New York and their star shortstop, it looks like Jeter is poised to follow in Manny’s footsteps.

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LaRoche Reaches End of the Line With Pirates

When the Pirates shipped Jason Bay to the Boston Red Sox on July 31, 2008 as part of a three-team deal that also put Manny Ramirez in Dodger blue, Andy LaRoche was the centerpiece from Pittsburgh’s perspective. GM Neal Huntington also acquired reliever Craig Hansen, starter Bryan Morris and outfielder Brandon Moss, but the big get was the third baseman who ranked as Baseball America’s number 31 prospect prior to the ’08 season. Huntington, at a press conference to announce the Bay deal, lauded LaRoche’s “tremendous command of the strike zone for a young hitter” and his “quality power.” A career .295/.382/.517 minor league batter, LaRoche looked like he’d be an above-average regular at the very least, and perhaps even a franchise cornerstone.

This past Friday, Huntington booted LaRoche off the 40-man roster (along with Zach Duke and Delwyn Young) by designating him for assignment. Buried on the bench in the second half of 2010 by Pittsburgh’s new hot-shot third baseman, Pedro Alvarez, LaRoche was deemed not worth keeping around as a bench player in 2011 for the high six-figure salary he’d draw as a first-time arbitration-eligible player. What happened here?

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Substituting DRS for UZR in WAR

When we calculate WAR at FanGraphs, we use a player’s UZR as his defensive input. This holds true for all positions except catcher, which defer to defensive runs saved (DRS), since UZR does not measure defense for catchers. That led me to wonder what would happen if we used DRS across the board. How big a difference might we see in the WAR values of the league’s best players?

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Huff Returns to The Beanstalk

Three weeks ago, I wrote that the Giants needed to avoid overcompensating the free agents from their World Series team. Today, they re-signed Aubrey Huff for two years and $22 million (with a club option for a third year). Although the Contract Crowdsourcing series had Huff valued two years, $16 million, did the Giants do well in what (seems) to be an inflated market?
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Victor Martinez To Detroit

You have to hand it to Dave Dombrowski – he is nothing if not decisive and aggressive. He quickly identified Brandon Inge and Jhonny Peralta as players he wanted to retain and Joaquin Benoit as the reliever he wanted to acquire, and made them offers they couldn’t refuse. Now he has reportedly lured Victor Martinez to Detroit with a four year, $50 million deal. Was Dombrowski’s decision to outbid the rest of the market a good one?

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Dontrelle to Cincy

Dontrelle Willis’ history is no secret. To attempt and retell it in a manner that proves anything but insulting and trite is pointless. Willis is undoubtedly the world’s most famous replacement level pitcher. His last acceptable season came in 2006; since then, he has thrown more than 400 innings between the majors and the minors without much success. The persistent state of ineffectiveness did not dissuade the Cincinnati Reds from signing Willis yesterday, although the minor league capacity of the deal is a strict reminder that this is not 2006.

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Pirate Scraps: Zach Duke

In an unsurprising move, the Pittsburgh Pirates designated pitcher Zach Duke (along with third baseman Andy LaRoche and infielder/outfielder Dewlyn Young) for assignment on Friday. Like most Pittsburgh hurlers, Duke 2010 numbers were dreadful, so the move made sense for the team. However, this does not mean that Duke shouldn’t be given a serious look by other teams assuming the likely scenario of him becoming a free agent. That’s right, teams should be looking over some of the Pirates’ table scraps.

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Comparing FIPS and xFIPS Using Batted Ball Distance

In one of the World Series chats I hosted, it was stated that Matt Cain gave up weak fly balls and that is the reason that his xFIPs (2010 = 4.19 and lifetime = 4.43 ) are higher than his FIPs (2010 = 3.65, lifetime = 3.84). After finally getting all the wrinkles worked out, I am able to get the average distance for fly balls given up by a pitcher. So, does the fly ball distance given up by a pitcher help to explain the difference between his xFIPs and FIPs?

I took just the pitchers that threw over 60 innings in 2010 and subtracted their FIPs from their xFIPs. Then I got the average distance of all the fly balls for these pitchers and here are the top five leaders and laggards:

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