Yesterday, Dave Cameron examined the grim history of 3+ year contracts dished out to free agent relievers over the past four off-seasons. The Cliff Notes version? Those ‘pen arms, save for the anomaly that is Mariano Rivera, have provided a paltry return on investment for their respective teams. After a few years of fiscal restraint, four relievers have received ample job security from clubs this winter: Joaquin Benoit (Tigers), Scott Downs (Angels), Matt Guerrier (Dodgers), and Jesse Crain (White Sox) all signed three-year contracts. If recent history is any indication, a few of these deals might elicit more forehead slaps than high-fives in front offices over the next three seasons.

In contrast to the long-term commitments given by the Tigers, Angels, Dodgers and White Sox, the Cubs and Rays each added a talented reliever for peanuts on Thursday. Kerry Wood will reportedly return to Wrigley Field on a one-year, $1.5 million deal. Joel Peralta, curiously non-tendered by the Nationals after a season in which he posted a 3.02 FIP and a 3.64 xFIP, is on the verge of signing a one-year contract with Tampa Bay for $900,000. Take a look at the 2011 Bill James projections for Wood and Peralta, compared to their much pricier free agent peers:

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Fifty-Five
In which the guest is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside a Canadian.

Headlines
The Life and Times of Navin Vaswani — Ya Heard!

Featuring
Navin Vaswani, Enigmatic Canadian

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 30 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

A few days after signing Hideki Matsui to DH, the Oakland Athletics have taken another step to invigorate an offense that ranked 10th in the American League in wOBA last season. The A’s have acquired outfielder Josh Willingham from the Washington Nationals for a pair of prospects: outfielder Corey Brown and right-handed reliever Henry Rodriguez.

Read the rest of this entry »

No surprise: player salaries are going up. But they’re not going up by much. This week, we learned that baseball’s average salary cleared $3 million for the very first time, and the minimum salary rose to $414,000. Craig Calcaterra noticed a helpful AP breakdown of the minimum and average salaries over the past 40 years. Craig’s main takeaway is that salaries have risen a lot over the past four decades, and that’s true. But an interesting trend emerges in the data: their climb has significantly slowed. Read the rest of this entry »

With the Phillies signing Cliff Lee late Monday night, much of the winter intrigue now shifts to Zack Greinke, the last ‘ace’ seemingly available this off-season. Reports have surfaced throughout the off-season suggesting that: a) Greinke is not happy in Kansas City and b) the Royals are ‘actively gauging’ the level of interest in the right-hander. Add in the fact that every team in baseball could use an ace starter (ok, maybe not the Phillies) and it’s hard to see Greinke wearing Royal blue come opening day.

One of the more interesting things about the Greinke rumors is how the Royals are treating the issue of whether to move the starter within the AL Central. First indications were that the Royals were opposed to trading Greinke within the division, but they seemed to have softened their stance of late. The issue is relevant not only because the Twins are rumored to have interest in the right-hander, but also because it provides an opportunity to discuss why I believe teams should look to trade within their own division.

Read the rest of this entry »

While we’ve seen prices going up for free agents across the board, nowhere has the inflationary market been more clear than in the bullpen. After Joaquin Benoit set the market by landing a three year contrat with Detroit, teams have felt obligated to match the length of that deal in order to get the guys perceived to be the best bullpen arms on the market. Scott Downs, Matt Guerrier, and now Jesse Crain have all landed three year deals since Benoit signed, and Rafael Soriano is widely expected to get a deal of at least three years as well. After several years of restraint, teams have found themselves spending on the bullpen like its 2006.

Unfortunately for the teams with the open wallets, recent history suggests that giving contracts of 3+ years to a relief pitcher is generally a terrible idea. Here’s a list of free agent relievers who have received deals for three or more years since over the last four off-seasons.

Read the rest of this entry »

There is still one significant procedural hurdle between Rich Harden and his next contract – supposedly with the Athletics for a $1.5 million base salary with $1.5 million in incentives. Like all players, Harden still has to pass his physical, but unlike most, he may be on pins and needles as he waits for the results. Assuming he does pass the test, Harden is still a decent gamble at that price (especially with the option of moving to the pen already in place), but he’s more of a gamble every year.

He’s probably only failed to be worth $3 million in two years of his career, despite never once crossing the 200-inning threshold (or, since 2005, even the 150-inning threshold). As we have touched here in many different ways, value can be informed by a mix of excellence and durability, and though Harden had bushels of one, he lacked the other. By keeping his strikeout rate in the double digits and pitching around 140 innings per season, he seemed to have settled into a strange role – an excellent sixth starter that could not be relied upon for a full season. Just for fun, here’s his DL history per Corey Dawkin’s injury tool. It shows nine official trips to the DL (and six day-to-day stints, one of which lasted 38 days) in his seven-year career.

Read the rest of this entry »

Earlier this week, the Pittsburgh Pirates signed free agent first baseman Lyle Overbay to a one-year, $5 million contract. Overbay’s addition moves Garrett Jones to right field to platoon with Matt Diaz, another free agent pick-up. And, with Chris Snyder set to start behind the plate, the Overbay signing further diminishes Ryan Doumit’s role with the Pirates.

Considering that Doumit’s $5.1 million salary makes him the second-highest paid player on the team (Snyder technically makes more at $5.75 million, but the Bucs got $3 million from Arizona last July to cover a portion of his contract), it’s highly unlikely that he opens the 2011 season in Pittsburgh. But, if and when the Pirates do find a trade partner, they won’t obtain much more than salary relief.

Read the rest of this entry »

Sad news tonight as Bob Feller has passed away at the age of 92. Others will undoubtedly share fond stories and memories of Feller the human being, but here’s the statistical spin on one of the game’s greatest pitchers.

During Feller’s 18 season career – interrupted for the 1942-1944 seasons due to his military commitments – he tossed 3,827 innings while striking out 6.33 batters per nine innings. A modest rate in today’s league, but back then, Feller’s ratio led pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched, and finished third among pitchers with at least 500 innings pitched – with Vinegar Bend Mizell and Harvey Haddix topping him by under a batter per inning pitched.

He led the American League in Wins Above Replacement two times (1939 and 1940) and finished 128th overall for his career with more than 63. He finished first or second in American League Pitcher WAR six times – every season from 1938 through 1941, and upon his return 1946 and 1947. The league’s strikeout (counting) from 1938-1941 and 1946-1948; Feller’s career 2,581 strikeouts rank 26th overall even today.

Feller was the youngest player going in the American League during the 1936 and 1937 seasons (he was 17 and 18), and the ninth oldest in 1956 (he was 37). A lifelong member of the Cleveland Indians, Feller finished in the top five of MVP voting four times; he won 266 games; pitched well enough to amass a career ERA of 3.25 and a career FIP of 3.48 and entered the Hall of Fame in 1962. All of this to say that Feller knew how to throw a baseball by batters in a more powerful and cunning manner than most pitchers who have entertained this game.

Losing a loved one during the holiday season is an unenviable reality of life for the folks around Feller tonight. Please keep those people in your thoughts during their time of mourning.

I am constantly amazed by the power of most recent season ERA. It seems to drive the perception of a pitcher’s worth more than any other statistic, to the point where it often appears to be the only thing under consideration. In the last few days, we’ve seen yet another example, as two very similar pitchers have had their market value talked about in two very different ways.

Let’s start with their career numbers.

Pitcher A: 2.51 BB/9, 5.82 K/9, 1.02 HR/9, 43.7% GB%, 4.21 FIP, 4.30 ERA
Pitcher B: 2.26 BB/9, 5.72 K/9, 1.01 HR/9, 46.0% GB%, 4.15 FIP, 4.34 ERA

Pretty similar, yes? They’re basically the same type of pitcher with similar stuff and approaches to pitching. Pitcher A is five years younger and has been healthy almost his entire career. Pitcher B has a long injury history and has spent a good chunk of his career on the disabled list. Which one would you prefer?

Read the rest of this entry »