2011 Organizational Rankings: #27 – Florida
The boom or bust cycle in Florida isn’t currently coming up roses. Will they find revitalization on the backs of their young players once again?
Major League Talent – 77.22 (19th)
Minor League Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)
Marlins Top 10 Prospects
Financial Resources – 62.00 (30th)
Baseball Operations – 79.44 (17th)
Overall Rating – 72.88 (27th)
Some may quibble with this ranking for the Marlins, and maybe even point to some hardware and the team’s penchant for collecting young talent quickly. The problem with that line of reasoning is that the hardware wasn’t earned so recently any more, and the young talent coming up in the pipelines right now isn’t as elite as it has been in the past.
Last year, the team owned the fifth-lowest payroll in the league at $57 million. As low as the number is, it might have been lower if not for a public admonishment from the commissioner’s office before last season which may have prompted the signing of team ace Josh Johnson to an extension. Even if you go with Cot’s number ($47 million), it was the second-highest payroll of the team’s existence, and yet, despite making money on an organizational level according to the leaked revenue sharing documents, the payroll level is not impressive.
The approach has worked before, when the young talent was impressive in both quantity and quality. Now, however, the talent on the way is flawed. Their number one prospect, Matt Dominguez, does come at a position of need – the Marlins have mixed and matched at third base for some time now – but is known for his glove more than his bat. Their best pitching prospect, Chad James, walked over five per nine last year and, according to maven Marc Hulet, has the upside of a #3 starter. There are some interesting players on the list, but most have an asterisk of some sort attached.
It’s possible that things will change, however unlikely it seems with Jeffrey Loria at the helm. In 2012, the team will have a new ballpark in a more central location with a retractable roof. The third-smallest park could put more butts in the seat – at least more than the 18,593 per game that showed up last year (third-lowest in baseball). There’s some exciting young present talent that is still under control at reasonable rates, and if more ballpark receipts meant more spending… well if you put the rosiest glasses on you can see a future with a healthy, robust team in teal.
And predisposition means a lot when appraising this team. With a friendlier eye, you could see a group that probably has their act straight. They have focused on their farm system, and regularly turn out strong major league regulars. Their front office regularly trades players at the height of their value, and even with the occasional miss (cough-Miguel Cabrera-cough), they have acquired many good young players from other organizations. They put a premium on cost control and avoid free agents. You could even laugh away the profits they’ve racked up as a quirk in the revenue sharing system; Yes the team made about $32 million in 2008 and 2009 combined, but they took in $90 million from revenue sharing – you could say they needed the infusions of cash.
Replace that friendly approach with a cynical one, and everything changes. Loria is a vulture of an owner that has ruined two franchises. His pump-and-dump strategy consists of acquiring young talent, contending, and then conducting fire sales before that talent gets too expensive. And it’s that strategy that has led to a disillusioned fan base, not necessarily the south Florida rains or the ballpark. Used to getting his way, Loria backed the local government into a corner until they gave him the ballpark he wanted. Still on the dole from baseball’s richer teams, his Marlins had to be publicly called to the mat before they signed a young star to a long-term contract.
Most likely, the truth is somewhere in between. There are shrewd aspects to the Marlins’ strategy, and yet the on-field results have been lacking, and there’s a sense that the team could improve with an infusion of free agency cash. With a new park in 2012, and the promise of the All-Star game in 2015, the next five years promise to give us an intriguing set of data with which appraise the team’s leadership. Maybe then we can decide which eye they deserve – friend or foe.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Toronto was ranked low-ish last season and I think it was appropriate but fully knew they would likely be one of the teams that could JUMP the most in the rankings coming into 2011.
Some of these bottom teams (besides Houston) could possibly do the same.
So far, the list has been very accurate.
I concur. Depending on where other teams fall in the rankings, I might put the Marlins higher on current talent, but the other categories seem pretty accurate.
“…the young talent coming up in the pipelines right now isn’t as elite as it has been in the past.”
Well said. The Marlins may not be hopeless, but I don’t see a whole lot of Hanleys and Miggys and Johnsons about to break onto the scene there. Dominguez may mature into a fine player, but a potential 6+ win player does not look to be in his cards.
I know he isn’t a rookie anymore but 21 year old Mike Stanton is just scratching the surface of what he can become. He can be a +6 win player you’re talking about. Those types just don’t grow on trees,and they just promoted one. You don’t expect them to have five or six more in the system, do you?
Fair enough, Stanton is a stud.
I don’t think I expect another stable of Stantons, but I also don’t think that the current talent is enough to contend without another few high-end prospects… or some FA money spent.
I agree with Eno. The Marlins have quite a few interesting players but they really need another front end SP, a relief ace, and a center fielder if they have aspirations of contending. The worst part is that this is a pretty small laundry list of needs (though scarcity play in to all of them) yet we can all be reasonably certain the Marlins won’t spend the 30ish mil required to settle them.
It’s too bad, the NL East looks remarkably winnable this year. Waiting for the Mets to get back on their feet and the Nats to start filling the seats is a poor decision if the goal is to make the playoffs. (that’s ignoring all those shiny prospects in ATL).
“It’s too bad, the NL East looks remarkably winnable this year. Waiting for the Mets to get back on their feet and the Nats to start filling the seats is a poor decision if the goal is to make the playoffs. (that’s ignoring all those shiny prospects in ATL).”
I feel like you’re missing something here. Oh, wait, the 4-time defending NL East champions? They might not be as good as the hype, but please don’t pretend like the Phillies aren’t the class of the division. Yes, they’re getting older, but they also have the #5 farm system in baseball according to Keith Law and have the financial resources to fill other holes. This is just pure ignorance.
Obviously Philly is the class of the division at the moment, but you have to admit that even with the historically great starting rotation, their offense sans Werth and Utley looks positively Mets circa 2009. Valdez, Castillo, Gload, Ibanez, Francisco, etc. all potentially getting 100s of at bats honestly has disaster-season written all over it. What’s more, according to their GM, they don’t have any financial flexibility at all at the moment. So yeah, they are looking kinda combustible from where I sit as well.
haterz
With the promised but not yet fulfilled change of title from “Minor League Talent” to “Future Talent,” the Marlins may be better than rated–Johnson, Nolasco, Stanton, Morrison, Coghlan, G. Sanchez, A. Sanchez, Dominguez.
They changed what they’re calling it, but not how they’re evaluating it. It’s basically “The Major League Team” and “The Farm System.” I feel like they’re missing greatly on teams that have young, developed talent. Marlins are a good example of this. Supposedly, any considerations about developed talent under future organizational control falls under the “Current Talent” header, but I don’t see it playing out here.
Frankly, I feel they missed out in two ways there. I like the Marlins’ talent a tad better than 19th this year. Maybe 17th. I see them winning more games than some AL teams with better talent, as well, so they could have the 14th or 15th best record this season. And a lot of their talent is cost controlled-they’ll still have basically the same talent in place for 2014. Gaby Sanchez and Chris Coghlan clearly aren’t stars, but they are pretty good players.
Not sure i can agree with a ranking this low for the Marlins. Obviously, their financial resources are going to put them always near the bottom, but I still like them better than a few other also-rans. They won 80 games last season, won 87 in 2009, and won 84 in 2008. They’re putting together .500-and-better teams on the super cheap, and a sufficient amount of luck puts a team like that into the playoffs. Sometimes you can win a division with just 84-87 wins.
Where are they right now? I like them just a hair better than the Mets and Nationals, so I think they’ve got a good chance to finish third in the NL East again, with some from 80-85 wins (BP has them at 84). There’s definitely some holes there, like the scramble to find anything above replacement level to stick at third base.
But they have Hanley Ramirez, who should be a 5-6 WAR player, and you can expect another 5-6 WAR out of Josh Johnson. Toss in 3.5 WAR from Mike Stanton, 3.5 from Nolasco, and around two from Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison, Javier Vazquez, and Chris Coghlan, and you have a really solid looking team. A bit of good luck and some injuries to Atlanta and/or Philadelphia, and this team could make the playoffs (BP has playoff odds at 22.7%). Clearly, these rankings are aimed at beyond just this year, but they look stable for the next season or two as well. I think teams like the Nationals, Royals, Mariners, Orioles, and Indians would GLADLY take 22% playoff odds with a stable core.
Of course, making the playoffs doesn’t exactly change this team’s reality. They’ve won before without selling out the stadium. Marlins baseball has never earned a reputation as a must-see event. So maybe I’m missing on the goal of organizational success. I still see a team that looks to hover around a 1-in-5 chance to make the playoffs this year and the next 2-3 with young (developed) talent. I would take that in a heartbeat over Cleveland, Baltimore, and maybe even Kansas City.
That ownership group is not my favorite, but the overall org is way better than 27th. They are mired in mediocrity, yes, and don’t look poised to move up from that, but shouldn’t the ranking reflect that kind of not too hot, not too cold consistency?
Agreed. The more I think about it, the more I feel this is a pretty bad miss. I’d have them at 24th.
Posted before I finished my thought. I’d have them at 24th, maybe even a bit higher. Even at 24th, they’d be much closer to 23rd than 25th.
“I feel this is a pretty bad miss. I’d have them at 24th.”
Missing a totally subjective ranking by three notches out of 30 I don’t think would qualify as a “bad miss”. If FG has them at 27th and you have them at 12th, or vice-versa, I would agree.
1) I feel it would be better if they made it totally subjective. I feel like they’ve lost something this year by trying to quantify certain aspects of it.
2) I guess being 10% wrong could qualify as close. But still, i could very easily see the Marlins at 23rd or 22nd, even, much easier than 27th. I think it’s pretty terrible that they’re behind Cleveland, who I think will have a really bad team both this year and next year, while the Marlins appear to have respectable talent for the next 3-4 years.
Maybe I’m looking at this with an improper scope-the Marlins could end up being really terrible when Stanton hits arbitration and Hanley’s and Josh Johnson’s contracts expire. But then, there’s too much uncertainty out that far for me to know much about anything, except that the Yankees will probably outspend everyone.
“I guess being 10% wrong could qualify as close.”
In a totally subjective ranking of 30 things, using totally subjective methodology, being off by 3 notches *would* qualify as close.
/fixed/
(Always cracks me up how in, say, NFL power rankings, Team X’s fans will hoot, howl, and moan about being ranked, say, 5th. “We should’ve been ahead of Team Y!” they cry. “We should have been 3rd or 4th!” I mean…really? Joe Superfan is worried that ‘his team’ was immensely, crushingly, and embarrasingly disrespected in a rating system that means nothing and counts for nothing? Love it.)
Did they really “miss” on Cabrera, or did they just not want to pay him? They certainly missed on the return for him, granted.
That’s the point he was making, clearly. He said they usually acquire good trade value, but the return on Cabrera was pretty sparse given his hitting ability.
Which of these is not like the other.? Astros, Pirates, Dbacks, Royals, Indians, Marlins.
One of these teams has been consistently competitive for the last seven years, winning a championship eight years ago. One of these has a brand new jewel of a ballpark opening next year bringing in 30 to 40 million dollars of added revenue (premium seating is already sold out). One of these has a young proven MVP candidate. One of these has a young proven Cy Young candidate. One of these has a 21 year old who hits baseballs so hard they knock over fielders who dare get in the way, when not leaving the park. One of these has young major league proven talent already in place throughout. I don’t know, who could it be?
I cannot fathom the lack of awareness here, I expect this from other sites. Epic fail here.
I doubt we are not aware of the players on this team.
Perhaps they should be higher for present talent, based on faithcasting some of their young players – and beyond Stanton and Johnson, I do believe it’s faithcasting – but 19th is not terrible. The minors don’t have much and the team spends the third-least on salaries, so those rankings seem okay. Current financials are not good, and ballparks don’t always mean the cache starts rolling in – ask Pittsburgh.
I agree with some of the commenters that perhaps they could be a tiny bit higher, but I don’t believe this is some incredible lack of awareness. Perhaps you have your ‘friend’ eye on.
I don’t think it’s JUST faithcasting. I think the Marlins should be expected to post a win total this year somewhere in the low 80s, maybe topping out around 87 unless things get REALLY whacky. Wins and talent aren’t always precisely correlated, with the differences in leagues and schedule difficulty, but I’m having a really hard time finding 18 teams I like better for just next year. Just having a lot of cost controlled players beyond 2011 seems like it should carry its own value.
Here’s the thing. The Marlins project as something like an 80-win team for the near future. That’s fine–a lot better than some of the teams that will rank ahead of them.
The problem is that’s ALL they can project to, because they don’t have an ownership that cares about winning. Would you rather have a 70-win team that is rebuilding with the potential to build a real 90+ win team in the future, or a consistent 80-win team? You’d take the former.
The ranking is defensible. Easily.
The ownership cares about winning in the short to medium term. If you look at the Marlins, you have a couple veterans signed to long-term deals, and a bunch of guys who are going to be in rookie contracts/arbitration for years to come. If they can lock up the core of their pitching staff, who exactly are they going to lose any time soon?
I mean, yeah, some of their stars might walk in 3-4 years when they hit free agency, or be traded for prospects at that time. Name a small-market team you CAN’T say that about.
Perhaps it is homerism, I grant that. However, my main point is the Marlins are nothing at all like the teams below them and so far are nothing like the 2 in front. If this is a ranking based on present and future success, there aren’t that many teams in front of them, in my humble opinion. You’re giving too much weight to what’s left in the minors when its not that important right now to them, the talent has graduated to the majors. But it is of paramount importance to teams like the Bucs, Astros, Dbacks, Royals, and of course the Mariners. Payroll will go up AS NEEDED. Thats what you’re not seeing as well. All I’m saying is you need to view the Marlins through a different prism, the new park is already a game changer for them. Again, they are not like the others. Also please spare me the PNC comp, opening a new park and putting a crap team on field year after year is no comparison to what the Marlins have right now.