Joey Votto’s monster 2010 (.324/.424/.600, .439 wOBA) came just in time for his first season of arbitration eligibility. That won’t be a concern now, as the Votto has reportedly signed a three-year, $38 million contract with the Reds, buying out his arbitration seasons. While Votto is obviously a great player, that number might seem steep to some for a player still under team control. However, a closer look shows that the Reds are getting a very good deal.
Chris Cwik and Zach Sanders are co-hosting a chat today, so bring either MLB or fantasy related questions to the party.
We’re pleased to welcome another talented writer to the FanGraphs team – Paul Swyden will be writing regularly for us going forward, and we think he’ll be a great addition to the site.
When Cameron Maybin was traded in November, it seemed as though the Padres were just trying to pick up a low-cost center fielder, as broken down by Dave Cameron here. They then went out and traded for, and extended, Jason Bartlett, and signed Orlando Hudson, seemingly saying that since they couldn’t afford anyone more expensive than Aaron Harang to upgrade the rotation, they’d upgrade the defense around that rotation instead. But this demands a question: does Maybin fit that plan?
At the time of the deal, the Friars already had Tony Gwynn, Jr. in the fold. Coming off a year in which he was 11th in the Majors in UZR, and third among center fielders, keeping Gwynn around seemed like a good idea. However, with Maybin on board, the Padres non-tendered Gwynn in early December, making the center-field job Maybin’s to lose in the process.
Over the last decade or so, the A’s have traditionally been out in front of the undervalued asset markets. They were buying on base percentage before it was cool, then transitioned to putting good defensive teams on the field once the market’s focus shifted too heavily to hitting. Oakland was also one of the first teams to do the Rent-a-Type-A strategy, making moves for guys with one year left on their contract in order to collect the draft picks when they walked. Given the moves that Billy Beane and company have made over the last few days, should we assume that relief pitchers are the new market inefficiency?
Last week, the A’s gave Grant Balfour a two year, $8 million contract, and because he was a Type A free agent, the A’s surrendered their second round pick in order to sign him. Yesterday, they agreed to terms with Brian Fuentes on a two year, $10 million contract, and the combination of moves gives the team a pair of new setup men to bridge the gap to closer Andrew Bailey. Given that they have also signed Rich Harden and Brandon McCarthy earlier this winter, stating that one or both could end up in the bullpen if they don’t make rotation, and the A’s have brought in a hefty dose of relief pitching this winter despite the fact that they already had a strong, deep bullpen.
Returning to the team from last year’s group are Bailey, Brad Ziegler, Craig Breslow, Michael Wuertz, and Jerry Blevins. Those five already offered the A’s a strong bullpen, including a quality closer and two good setup men from each side. In fact, it’s hard to distinguish between Breslow and Fuentes, as they essentially have the same skillset – extreme flyball lefties with mediocre command who miss enough bats to strand a bunch of runners. Fuentes duplicates what they already had, and Balfour is pretty similar to Wuertz as well.
So, what’s the deal? Why are the A’s spending so much time and energy on their bullpen?
Every year, baseball’s intelligentsia settle on a new sleeper team. The ballclub in question is usually young, with a bunch of players coming off strong seasons. Because of those players’ youth, we assume continued progress the next season, even a playoff run.
The A’s have started to crystallize as 2011’s go-to sleeper team. They went from 75 wins to 81 in 2010. They’re armed with a universally-admired, young starting rotation, and have recently upgraded their offense and their bullpen.
Niche blogs have jumped on the bandwagon. Sabermetrically-inclined analysts writing for mainstream sites have done the same. Buster Olney’s on the A’s too (Insider subscription required), profiling Gio Gonzalez as one of the key young stars who could propel Oakland to the postseason this year.
Is everyone doing this wrong?
View spreadsheet of all 102 prospects by clicking here.
Last Monday, I submitted for the readership’s consideration a review of the hitting prospects from the 1993 edition of the Bill James Player Ratings Book.
In what follows, I’ve attempted a similar exercise for the 1994 edition.
“Similar” I say because there’s one notable difference. For whatever reason, James provides grades for far fewer hitting prospects in the 1994 edition as compared to 1993 — 43 fewer, in fact (104 versus 61). If this affected merely the Grade C and D prospects, it might be possible to ignore these omissions, but players like Carlos Delgado and Manny Ramirez — two players to whom James himself refers as “super-prospects” — receive no grade, either.
Delmon Young walked 53 times in his first 578 minor league plate appearances. Thereafter, he walked 44 times in 974 plate appearances. Whenever a right fielder with a power stroke, good bat control, and a strong arm comes through the minors with a resistance to the free pass like Young, you can be sure that Vladimir Guerrero comparisons will follow. Sure enough, they did. Fortunately, for Young, he managed to live up to those expectations in 2010.
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Episode Fifty-Seven
In which the guest is a captain of industry.
Headlines
A Big League Idea (Co-Starring the Jim Bouton)
When “Maverick” Meant Something: Portland Baseball in the Mid-70s
A Day in the Life of an Idea Man
Featuring
Rob Nelson, Inventor of Big League Chew
Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)
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And the winner of the award for Best Free Agent Signing Of The Winter goes to… Dayton Moore? Wait, seriously? Who counted these votes?
January 14th, 2011 – the day that up became down, right became left, and FanGraphs writes that Moore got the best deal of the winter in free agency. But, here we are – the Royals just signed Jeff Francis to a one year contract for 2011 that will pay him just $2 million, and if he stays healthy and pitches well, could earn him up to a whopping $4 million. To put it in other terms, he just signed for the same amount of guaranteed money as Melvin Mora, and if he hits enough incentives, he might end up making as much as Bill Hall. This is, quite simply, a steal for Kansas City.
The 2011 Fan Projections are proceeding apace, but there are plenty of players who need more ballots cast. Today I’d like to highlight some of the starting pitchers who had the highest ground-ball rates of 2011 for your predictive attention.
