Archive for January, 2011
The Angels Should Sign Vladimir Guerrero
If we ran a poll on what team has had the worst off-season to date, I’m certain that the Angels would win in a landslide. From losing out on Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre – including watching him go to the division rival they’re trying to chase down – to the inexplicable Vernon Wells trade, the Angels have just swung and missed this winter. But they don’t have to be done just yet, and there’s a player on the market who could help them both in 2011 and beyond, and if they signed him, he could end up earning his entire salary back and then some.
That player is Vladimir Guerrero, who looks to be the last DH still standing around when the music stops and all the chairs are gone. Guerrero originally wanted to parlay his rebound season into a multi-year contract, but now he’s just looking for a job. With Bobby Abreu likely to shift to DH after the Wells acquisition, the Angels might not have a full-time spot for him, but Abreu is actually the reason they should make a strong run at Guerrero to begin with.
A Little More On The Phillies Batting Order
by Eno Sarris
January 27, 2011
Earlier in the week, we focused on the top two spots in the Phillies order. Specifically, the revelation that using Jimmy Rollins in the leadoff spot over Placido Polanco would only cost the team about 1.18 baserunners over the course of a season. The commenters pointed out, rightly, that this analysis ignored the slugging aspect of the two batters’ repertoires. Questions were also raised about the lefty-lefty tandem at the heart of the order. So, let’s dive right in and try to get this right by the numbers: A little moron, the Phillies’ batting order.
Remembering back to the LOOGY wonder that was Javier Lopez in the playoffs last year, you might over-rate the “problem” of batting lefties Chase Utley and Ryan Howard back-to-back. Lopez only pitched 4 1/3 innings, but his four strikeouts were memorable, and it seemed that he shut the duo down. But this wasn’t really a year-long problem. Yes, Howard has a nasty platoon split (.424 wOBA vs righties, .324 vs lefties), but Utley doesn’t. His work versus righties (.382 wOBA) is basically indistinguishable from his work against southpaws (.390 wOBA). Opposing managers can bring out their LOOGY for both guys at their own peril.
FanGraphs Audio: Brian Cartwright, Father of OLIVER
January 26, 2011
Episode Sixty
In which the guest actually stays up all night.
Headlines
On Projecting Minor Leaguers
Sabermetrics Before the Term Existed
An Encounter with Kevin Kerrane, Author of Dollar Sign on the Muscle
On Measuring Defense
… and other enthralling bric-a-brac!
Featuring
Brian Carthwright, Tireless Worker (and Father of OLIVER)
Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.
Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 35 min play time.)
Podcast: Play in new window | Download
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Keeping It in the Infield
On a list of the highest single season infield hit totals since FanGraphs began tracking the statistic in 2002, Ichiro Suzuki occupies the first seven spots. Across all seasons, Ichiro’s 391 infield hits totally dwarfs every other hitter in baseball. The next highest is Luis Castillo with 248. By sole dint of his impressive cumulative total, it is tempting to award Ichiro as the best infield hitter in baseball, but is that a reasonable conclusion?
Ichiro bats leadoff and is incredibly durable, routinely garnering among the top number of plate appearances among hitters each season. That translates to lots and lots of opportunities to rack up infield hits. Instead of looking just at raw totals this illustrates a need to look at rates so that I can attempt to control for Ichiro’s advantage in opportunities.
Rocco Baldelli: What Might Have Been
Rocco Baldelli, who would have only been 29 at the beginning of the 2011 season, has reportedly retired.
Baldelli looked like a potential superstar during his age-21 debut in 2003 and his sophomore 2004. Sure, he was something of an overrated player who was better in fantasy (good average and stolen bases) than in reality (low walk rate), but his youth and athleticism left plenty of room for growth. However, he missed the whole 2005 season due to injury, and while his 2006 season looked like a “breakout,” he got hurt again. After that, injury followed upon injury. Baldelli was eventually diagnosed with a mitochondrial disorder (the current diagnosis is channelopathy). He managed to continue playing a bit here and there, although his on-field contributions were relatively insignificant. He was part of the Rays’ 2008 American League Championship team and did get some (regrettable) playing time in the playoffs for the 2010 Rays’ playoff team. Baldelli, who is going to join the Rays’ front office, doesn’t sound bitter, and this post won’t trade in nostalgia, either. While many players might have had different careers if not for injury, I think something like channelopathy is unusual enough (from what I understand of it, which is virtually nothing) that it is worth spending a little time today speculating on what Baldelli’s career might have been like if he hadn’t had it.
Chamberlain’s Stuff as a Starter
Yesterday, while doing a question-and-answer session with WFAN, Yankees general manager Brian Cashman was asked about Joba Chamberlain’s role with the Yankees. Chamberlain has bounced back and forth between the pen and rotation several times, but spent all last year in the pen. Now with the Rafael Soriano signing and questionable back-of-the-rotation options (which Paul Swydan outlined earlier) many have wondered whether Chamberalin would start next year.
But Cashman said the Yankees view him solely as a reliever. “I don’t think his stuff is the same since he hurt himself in Texas [August 4th 2008] … The stuff plays up better in the pen.” Cashman continued, “His stuff doesn’t play out of the rotation anymore like it did before prior to his shoulder.”
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Yankees Fifth Starter(s)
The Yankees may rely on Sergio Mitre or Ivan Nova to be their fifth starter this year. You may think that this is patently un-Yankee-like, but you’d be wrong. In the past five seasons, Yankees starters have compiled 72.5 WAR, good for eighth most in the Majors. However, virtually none of that was compiled by their fifth starters.
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Bartolo Colon and Kevin Millwood, Then and Now
For the second time in their careers, Kevin Millwood and Bartolo Colon have hit free agency at the same time. Last time was in the winter of 2003, when they were the two of the three best pitchers in a middling free agent class. This time around it’s quite a bit different: Millwood recently turned 36 and is coming off a poor season, the third time in the last four years that his ERA eclipsed 5.00. Colon, who will turn 38 in May, hasn’t pitched since July of 2009 and has thrown just 257 innings during his last four seasons on the mound. Despite this, he has landed a minor league contract with the Yankees, which will pay him $900,000 if he makes the team out of spring training. Millwood, meanwhile, sits and waits for a suitable offer.