Tangotiger posts the official results of his 2007-2010 projection tests. Specifically he tests CHONE, PECOTA, Oliver, ZiPS and the Marcel projection systems using wOBA.
It’s very in depth and there’s a lot of really great information here about how different projection systems fared for different “classes” of players.
Jack has a point. Russell Branyan could certainly help the Rays add a win or two to their 2011 total. That additional production might make a difference in a tight AL East race. It’s easy to forget, though, that there’s another team looming in the East. The Blue Jays surprised everyone last year, and they’re bringing back much of the same cast this season. They’d do well to bring in Branyan and add that win or two themselves.
Play the player-profile game every day this week at 11:30am ET. Each day, we’re giving away a free copy of the 2011 Second Opinion to the first reader who guesses correctly the identity of that day’s mystery player. (Limit one copy per customer).
As announced yesterday, FanGraphs will once again be offering to the public its fantasy companion guide, The Second Opinion. Man-in-Charge David Appelman will have more details on the guide — set to be released this week — very shortly.
In the meantime, however, we’re playing the player-profile game I intoduced in these pages last offseason.
The game is easy: one person (me, in this case) offers the text of single player profile, being careful to omit any proper names that might reveal the identity of the player in question. The other person (you, the reader) attempts to identify the player using only the details provided in the profile.
First reader to guess correctly (in the comments section below) gets a free copy of this year’s Second Opinion — approximately a $1000 value!
Today’s entry comes to us courtesy of Matt Klaassen. It’s a trifle more difficult than yesterday’s, but not impossible.
Who is it?
If you’re reading a fantasy profile for [BLANK], then you’re either lost, incredibly bored, or in something like a 38-team NL-only league. [BLANK] won’t even help you much in a Bizarro league, as he’s been signed to back up [BLANK] in [BLANK]. It’s really too bad, since [BLANK] can’t run, hit for average or power, and yet used to get marched out there almost every day in [BLANK] (to be fair, he’s a good defender). He’s a Jason Kendall in training, except without the playing time. If that appeals to you, go nuts. Otherwise, go to bed, it’s [BLANK].
Carlos Santana has only played forty major league games, but he’s already topped one significant leaderboard with his play. Consider this little nugget: Last year, he put up the best OPS by a switch-hitting catcher debuting under the age of 25 with 30 or more games. In fewer words, he was the best rookie switch-hitting catcher of all time last year. Of course, that assertion comes with some significant caveats, but after further inspection his supernatural feat holds up as historically great.
As the league prepares for Spring Training, there remain a few players left unsigned, left searching for teams as we celebrate Truck Days and Pitchers and Catchers Report Days. I can only imagine how depressing it is for these players – just picture a player sitting at home, baseball glove in hand, cap on head, watching with a frown on his face as all his friends depart for the warmth and promise of Arizona and Florida. Well, for one player, I have a solution. Russell Branyan, you were born to play for the Tampa Bay Rays.
Although Branyan’s stock has cooled considerably since he first burst on to the scene (at least for those outside the sabermetric community, which always loved his righty-mashing ways), he still has something left to give. Over the last two seasons, Branyan has slugged 56 homers, compiling a 125 wRC+ and 4.9 WAR. Marcel projects a line of .239/.324/.470, ZiPS projects .235/.330/.480, and CAIRO, most optimistically, foresees a .246/.339/.494 line. No matter who you ask, they’ll tell you one thing about Branyan: he’s got power. Even though he can only play 1B and DH, that power is enough to warrant a Major League contract worth multiple millions of dollars- he just needs a team.
Yes, the Tampa Bay Rays already have a first baseman in Dan Johnson and a designated hitter in Manny Ramirez, but is that reason enough for them to shun Branyan? Hardly. Although a platoon between Johnson and Branyan isn’t really plausible – both are left-handed – the Rays would be well served to have an experienced Plan B for Johnson. Casey Kotchman is currently on the roster, but his time with the Seattle Mariners showed that he isn’t contributing anything anytime soon. Also, it clearly wouldn’t hurt to have a backup plan for Manny, who, even ignoring his penchant to go off-the-rails, is 39 next season and likely a) an injury risk and b) would require some rest days. The Rays pretty clearly have 300 or so plate appearances to offer The Muscle, and potentially more.
Listening to the first few broadcasts from Spring Training and hearing the Tim Kurkjians of the world declare that “the Rays have taken a major step back” gives a sense of gloom, doom, and definite third place (or worse!) for the team from the Trop. Although it is true that the team has taken a step back, it’s not so much that they won’t be competing in 2011. The first PECOTAs have the Rays within seven games of the Yankees – a wide gap, but one that wouldn’t be insurmountable with two potential extra wins from Branyan. The newest CAIROs have an even smaller gap – only four games – a gap that the Rays could easily clear with a few breaks, and becomes even closer with Branyan’s help.
So, yes, Tampa, even though many of your plans are made and bags are packed, try and find room for one more in your Spring Training complex. You know how sad and lonely it must be for Russell to wait at home and watch his friends practicing in the inviting Florida sun. Just give him a call and let him play too!
The Boston Red Sox
2010 MLB Record: 89-73 (third place, AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 11th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List
The Prospects
1. Jose Iglesias, SS
Acquired: 2009 non-drafted free agent (Cuba)
Pro Experience: 1 season
2010 MiLB Level: SS/AA
Opening Day Age: 21
Estimated Peak WAR: 4.0
Notes: Iglesias vaults to the top of the Red Sox prospect rankings after the Adrian Gonzalez trade with San Diego. The Cuban shortstop had a solid first pro season in North America by hitting .285/.315/.357 in 221 at-bats. On the down side, Iglesias clearly has work to do when it comes to his aggressiveness at the plate. He posted a walk rate of just 3.4 BB%, while his strikeout rate sat at 22.2 K%. I’d like to see him be a little more balanced at the plate; after watching Iglesias in the Arizona Fall League, he does get out on his front foot a little too often against off-speed pitches. The 21-year-old’s value is tied heavily to his glove. He’s a slick fielder who could probably play defense in the Majors right now. He has quick hands and feet, good range as well as a strong arm. Because he struggled after the regular season during the AFL (.265 wOBA), Iglesias could head back to double-A to begin the 2011 season.
The 100 initial free signups for ottoneu fantasy baseball are now filled! Those who have already signed up should be reimbursed soon.
Teams are now available at the discounted rate of $9.99 up until March 1st.
We handed out some praise this afternoon, but now, we turn our attention to those moves that were somewhat less impressive. The criteria remains the same – we’re looking for transactions that significantly weakened a franchises ability to contend, or moves that simply just don’t appear to make much sense.
Now, for the presentations, let’s go to the podium.
Last week, I posted about three hitters who displayed “old player skills” during the 2010 season. Old players are (as defined by Nate Silver) hitters who at a relatively young age have higher walk rates and isolated power and lower batting average and speed scores. Silver found such players to usually have an earlier peak and decline than others. Of course, this doesn’t mean every such player is doomed to peak and flame out early– just look at Adam Dunn. To gain some perspective, let’s step back a few seasons too see players who have had early “old player” seasons and see how they turned out.
Six years ago, a friend of mine emailed me in response to me asking if we were going to continue our fantasy baseball league. He proposed playing a completely new game and asked if I was up for helping him run the league. We had been playing traditional fantasy baseball for a few years, but the format of the standard 5×5 12 team league was getting annoying on multiple fronts. We had all recently read Moneyball by Michael Lewis, so our interest in prospects and sabermetrics were both at an all-time high. Between snake drafts and strange waiver wire rules, we were also getting fed up with the arbitrary nature of player acquisitions. As a result of these factors, my friend proposed ottoneu Fantasy Baseball, and now I am happy and excited to share this game with FanGraphs.
The game is not a typical league-based fantasy baseball game. Instead of snake drafts, every player is acquired via auction, either in the auction draft before each regular season or by 2-day blind auctions during the season. Instead of keeping 0 players or 3 players or 5 players, you have the option to keep everyone on your 40-man roster, as long as your budget can handle the salaries. Instead of considering just the current season, teams are constantly thinking about how to get competitive and stay competitive. Of course, the player universe is one of the deepest available, which demands a strong awareness of the next generation of baseball superstars.
I believe this format is a great fit here. Considering value for both this year and the next is outside the scope of traditional fantasy games, but it is not outside the scope of Major League front offices, FanGraphs writers, or FanGraphs’s readership. I also think the 3 scoring styles will be of interest, with traditional 5×5, sabermetrically-inclined 4×4, and pure sabermetric linear weights options.
We have been playing this game ever since my friend proposed it. We believe it is a well-balanced introduction to the world of auction dynasty fantasy baseball. My hope is that you will find it to be a compelling and fun game. Like I always say, you haven’t really played fantasy baseball until you’ve discussed the merits of trading $14 Matt Garza for $4 Brett Lawrie or pondered swapping $42 Adam Dunn for $46 Chase Utley (both actual trades from this past off-season), let alone put your faith in keeping a $30 Jay Bruce in the hopes that he finally breaks out for a full season. In case you were wondering, I am quite bullish on Jay Bruce for 2011.
If you find this at all interesting, please read more about the game on our support page, and consider creating or joining a league. Regularly priced at $19.99 for a full season, we will be refunding the fee for the first 100 sign-ups, and discounting to $9.99 until the end of February. I’ll be roaming these hallowed grounds to answer any questions you might have, but you can also reach me at niv@ottoneu.com or via twitter (@ottoneu). I hope you find ottoneu Fantasy Baseball to be different, thought-provoking, and fun!