Archive for March, 2011

To Demote or Promote?

There are plenty of words in the English language that rankle my sensibilities, but few of them so consistently annoy me as “always”. It seems like such an innocent word, but how many times is the word “always” used correctly? It’s a sloppy word, used when someone is putting together a hasty argument and doesn’t have the time to merit defenses or facts to support them. “The Yankees always field a good team.” “Steroid use is always immoral.” “The better team always wins.” As much as we may want arguments (and life) to be black and white, cut and dried, very rarely is this the case. Life is full of contradictions, nuances, and shades of gray.

There are many baseball debates that tend to get polarized, but one common one during Spring Training is the debate over what to do with top prospects. If a team starts a top rated prospect in the minor leagues, there’s a public outcry about how the team is manipulating that player’s service time to serve their own best interest, keeping the player for an extra season and keeping the player’s salary lower for a longer period of time. The demotion has nothing to do with talent, but everything to do with money.

In most instances, though, the debate is far from this simple.

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Top 30 Prospects: The Toronto Blue Jays

The Toronto Blue Jays
2010 MLB Record: 85-77 (4th place, AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 3rd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Kyle Drabek, RHP
Acquired: 2006 1st round (Texas HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 23
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: The key to the Roy Halladay trade with Philadelphia, Drabek has a chance to break camp in 2011 with the Jays despite lacking triple-A experience. The son of former Cy Young award winner Doug Drabek, the rookie has an advanced feel for pitching given his age and experience level. He held his own during a brief MLB trial (4.08 FIP in 3 starts) in 2010 but still has to sharpen his overall command and secondary pitches after missing time due to Tommy John surgery early in his career. Drabek has a solid repertoire that includes a 90-95 mph fastball and plus curveball. He also has a cutter and changeup, both of which need development. During his time in double-A, Drabek posted a solid strikeout rate (7.33 K/9) with average control (3.78 BB/9) and showed the ability to produce an average to above-average ground-ball rate. I’m not crazy about his mechanics. Drabek has a quick, short-arm action and three-quarter arm slot. He also throws across his body a bit and doesn’t use his legs as much as he should. If everything develops as hoped, though, the pitching prospect could develop into a No. 2 starter.

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Jonah Keri FanGraphs Chat – 3/14/11


Yankees, Nationals Scouting Carlos Silva

Carlos Silva has drawn attention this spring for his dugout brawl with teammate Aramis Ramirez. According to Bruce Levine of ESPNChicago, he is gaining interest for what he does on the field as well. Levine names the Washington Nationals and the New York Yankees as teams who have scouted the Cubs’ right-hander this spring.

Both Washington and New York have questions at the back end of their rotations. The Nationals have durability concerns in John Lannan and Jordan Zimmerman while the Yankees are sorting through non-roster invitees like Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia. In either case, it’s hard to see Silva as much of an upgrade, especially considering he is on the books for nearly $12 million – although Seattle is picking up part of the tab.

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Team Preview: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

It was a disappointing 2010 season for Anaheim. They finished in third place in the AL West and with a below .500 record for the first time since 2003. With lots of money to spend and a natural motive to improve, most people figured the Angels would be big players in all the major free agents this winter. Instead, they struck out on nearly every target. Rightly or wrongly, a hard line stance on contract offers to the likes of Carl Crawford and Adrian Beltre resulted in those players signing elsewhere and leaving the Angels with no big move to hang their hat on. Perhaps out of desperation came the trade for Vernon Wells and the assumption of his entire contract. How does that impact the starting lineup?

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Hackin’ Jose Reyes

With a healthy, productive season, Jose Reyes will become a very wealthy man next winter. The switch-hitter, eligible for free agency following 2011, could hit the market as a 28-year-old at a premium position with at least three 5.5+ WAR seasons to his name.

That’s not to say that Reyes’ game is without question marks, however. Hamstring issues that haunted him early in his big league career crept back up in 2009, costing him most of the season, and he missed time last year getting treatment for an overactive thyroid as well as nursing an oblique injury. Reyes didn’t play poorly in 2010, but a 2.8 WAR campaign was disappointing nonetheless. One of the biggest reasons that Reyes fell short of being the championship-caliber player we’ve come to expect was a downturn in his plate discipline.

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Tracy Ringolsby Q&A: Part 2

Click here for Part 1.

Q: Statistics are not the only things being revolutionized. With the new Pitch f/x data available, scouting can be digitized as well. Do you think this sort of technology has been helpful to teams looking to gain an edge?
A: You can’t have too much information. I think where you get in danger is when you decide to replace things. Like advance scouts, is that what you’re talking about?
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Team Preview: Seattle Mariners

The Mariners’ 2010 season was a colossal failure any way you care to measure it. The offense was both bad and unlucky. For reasons unknown to man and/or beast, manager Don Wakamatsu (before being fired) deployed Ken Griffey and Mike Sweeney with unnerving frequency — both of whom were part of an early season controversy involving the sleeping habits of the former. Milton Bradley had a bit of a Milton Bradley Situation. And somehow the Mariners lost three games behind God’s Most Blessed Angel, Cliff Lee.

Projected Starting Lineup
1 RF Ichiro Suzuki*
2 3B Chone Figgins**
3 LF Milton Bradley**
4 DH Jack Cust*
5 CF Franklin Gutierrez
6 C Miguel Olivo
7 1B Justin Smoak**
8 SS Jack Wilson
9 2B Brendan Ryan

To get a sense of how poor the offense was last year, consider this fact: in 2010, Mariner DHs slashed .194/.269/.340, a figure that compares a little too closely to the .143/.177/.176 triple-slash posted last year by National League pitchers. The team as a whole finised 30th in the majors with 138.4 weighted batting runs below average — a metric that adjusts for park. Basically, if Jason Kendall had started every game at every position, the Mariners would’ve been no worse off — from an offensive point of view, at least.

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Top 10 Prospects: The Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves
2010 MLB Record: 91-71 (second place, NL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 4th (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Julio Teheran, RHP
Acquired: 2007 non-drafted free agent (Colombia)
Pro Experience: 3 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: A-/A+/AA
Opening Day Age: 20
Estimated Peak WAR: 5.0

Notes: Teheran has been a much-hyped prospect since his amateur days, but his career was slowed initially by some injury (shoulder) concerns. The right-hander pitched just 15.0 innings during his pro debut in 2008 and followed that up with an 81.1 inning season. Teheran’s workload then jumped to 142.2 innings in 2010 when he spent time at three different levels and finished the season in double-A. The young hurler has excellent control for his age (1.85 BB/9 in 63.1 high-A innings) and does a nice job of commanding his three-pitch repertoire (fastball, changeup, curveball). His heater sits in the 93-96 mph range and has posted double-digit strikeout rates. He repeats his delivery well but slings the ball at times. His arm angle is low-three-quarters and there is a little bit of effort to his action. I would think that his arm angle would better suit a slider than a curveball, but he makes the latter pitch work. Teheran should open 2011 in double-A and could see the Majors by August, depending on the club’s needs. Just 20, he has the potential to develop into a No. 1 starter before he turns 25.

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Team Preview: Texas Rangers

They say “everything’s bigger in Texas,” and nothing exemplifies that more than the expectations surrounding the Texas Rangers. After an incredible season in which they won the AL Pennant, the pressure will be on the Rangers to repeat last year’s success. Due to the departure of Cliff Lee during the offseason, much of that pressure will once again fall on the rotation. The offense may be built around some extremely talented players, but those players come with significant injury concerns. Despite last season’s success, there are many questions surrounding the Rangers this season. Do they have what it takes to live up to their lofty expectations?
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