Archive for March, 2011

The Marlins’ Stopgap Solution

The Marlins recently decided that Matt Dominguez is not ready to hold down a starting gig in the majors. By sending him back to the minor leagues for more seasoning the team explicitly acknowledged the need for an everyday corner infielder. However, finding the right player will prove to be an interesting exercise in roster management given that Dominguez is not far away from starting. Since he could conceivably be ready by the middle or end of the season, the Marlins find themselves in need of a stopgap solution–a placeholder brought in to hold down the fort until their top prospect is ready to contribute.

There are several freely available external options that fit this bill as well as a few players already at the team’s disposal. The Marlins need to stick to this group of players and resist the urge to spring for the pricier, sexier names. Perhaps that qualifier was unnecessary since the words “pricier” and “Marlins” aren’t usually found in the same sentence. Anywho, acquiring a more costly player could hamper the team’s payroll and block a future contributor for a mere marginal gain in the interim.

It is important to keep in mind that the Marlins were essentially willing to punt the position by even considering Dominguez for the starting spot. Had he been ready to shoulder the load of an everyday role, three or four wins of production would have been an unrealistic expectation. He managed just a .337 wOBA in Triple-A last season and has not raked since his 2008 stint in Single-A. His value stems primarily from his work with the glove, and while the bat may develop, it wasn’t going to do much damage this season.

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The Mets Bullpen As A Strength

If you spent all winter reading headlines, you might think that the Mets are in a bad position now. The stories that defined the team’s off-season — Johan Santana missing at least the first half, two injury-prone pitchers inhabiting the back of the rotation, ownership’s financial situation — don’t paint a pretty picture. But quietly the Mets’ new front office has assembled a team that might surprise those who haven’t dug deeply enough. Particularly impressive is the bullpen. It contains a number of underrated pitchers who together could form one of the stronger units in the NL.

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2011 Organizational Rankings: #10 – Colorado

Colorado will never lead the league in payroll. It’s unlikely that someone will write a book about its front office or coaching staff. Yet, the Rockies have been to the playoffs two out of the last four years and should contend for the next several seasons. Above-average results with average resources is what makes Colorado a Top 10 organization in baseball.

Present Talent – 85.00 (T-5th)

Rockies Season Preview

Future Talent – 80.00 (T-15th)

Rockies Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 78.85 (13th)

Baseball Operations – 78.33 (T-16th)

Overall Ranking – 80.74 (10th)

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2011 Organizational Rankings: #11 – San Francisco

I know, I know, they just won the World Series, how could they rate behind ten other organizations? Remember, though, that this is a forward looking exercise, and we’re not doling out credit for what happened in the past. The question posed was how well do the Giants stack up going forward.

Present Talent – 82.27 (10th)

Giants Season Preview

Future Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Giants Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 83.18 (10th)
Baseball Operations – 77.73 (19th)

Overall Rating – 80.32 (11th)

The fact that the Giants will be handing out World Series rings on Opening Day is the big elephant in the room here, so let’s just get that out of the way. The Giants played well in October, and certainly deserved to win the World Series. You could even argue that they were the best team in baseball last year – they did, after all, have the highest team WAR in baseball, so perhaps they never should have been considered underdogs to begin with. Read the rest of this entry »


Ogando Enters Rangers Rotation

After months of back and forth banter, the Texas Rangers announced last week that they would be keeping both of their flame-throwing relievers (Neftali Feliz and Alexi Ogando) in the bullpen. That plan lasted less than a week. With starter Tommy Hunter out until at least May, the team announced that Ogando will begin the season as a starting pitcher.

Ogando is an interesting choice for a spot in the rotation given his lack of history with the role. The former outfielder has just over 100 appearances (majors and minors) as a pitcher, with just three of them coming as a starting pitcher. He has pitched in five games (one start) this spring, tossing 10.2 innings.

Despite being relatively new to the world of pitching, it’s easy to see the appeal of giving Ogando an expanded role. Working mainly off his high octane fastball and slider*, Ogando induced an above-average number of swings and misses (10.8% SwStr). With 39 strikeouts in 41.2 innings of work, he averaged nearly a punch out per inning pitched. In addition to the fastball and slider, the righty used a changeup (sparingly), and word on the street is he has dabbled with a splitter this spring.

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2011 Organizational Rankings: #12 – LA Angels

The Angels may not do it like we want them to, but they do do it. Succeed, I mean. Most of the time at least.

Present Talent – 75.83 (T-18th)

Angels Season Preview

Future Talent – 85.00 (t-5th)

Angels Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 85.00 (4th)
Baseball Operations – 76.67 (T-22nd)

Overall Rating – 80.17 (12th)

Coming off a year that saw the Angels fall to third in their four-team division, it may be a little difficult to appreciate the run of success they’ve had. Or maybe we can think back past last year if we really try, and remember that they won five division titles between 2004 and 2009. Even if they seemed to outproduce their peripherals as a team, that’s an impressive run.

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Did Chad Billingsley Sell Himself Short?

Last night word leaked out that the Dodgers had reached a contract extension with Chad Billingsley, with the reported figures putting the deal somewhere in the range of $35 to $36 million for three years, with the contract not kicking in until next winter – he will still earn the $6.3 million salary in 2011 that was already agreed upon. The deal covers his final arbitration year and the first two years of free agency at an average rate of around $12 million per season.

Given what other pitchers with similar service time have been signing for of late, however, it looks to me that Billingsley may have left a lot of money on the table in order to sign this deal. While he might not have the reputation as one of the premier pitchers in the game, his arbiter-friendly numbers stack up well against some bigger name pitchers. In 4+ seasons, he’s thrown 826 innings, posted 59 wins, and has a 3.55 ERA.

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2011 ZiPS Projections

This year’s latest ZiPS projections, courtesy of Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory are now live in the player pages (you’re welcome, Carson) and the sortable projection sections.

If you’d prefer them in excel format you can download the full spreadsheet here.

We’ll be updating these every day of the 2011 season, as usual!


Mike Sweeney’s Three (+1) Greatest Hits

I guess the Royals just had to give yet another foolish contract to a washed-up ex-Mariner: Mike Sweeney signed a one-day contract with the Royals this past Friday so that he could retire as a member of the team that originally drafted him. A number of thoughtful Sweeney tributes were already posted before the weekend, and I'm sure there are more to come. Nothing will, of course, ever top this outstanding website preserving the memory of Sweeney’s forgotten 83-home-run campaign in 2003.

Sweeney inspires polarizing reactions, particularly among Royals fans. The pieces above cover the underlying issues — his performances, his personality, his big contract, his back injury — so I won’t rehash those issues here. In addition to the pieces linked above, I’m sure Joe Posnanski and Rany Jazayerli will be along to share their favorite Sweeney stories soon, and you can look up at his player page for the basic statistics. For my part, I’d like to take a look at some of Sweeney’s biggest hits in terms of the stat that tells a story: Win Probability Added.

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2011 Organizational Rankings: #13 – St. Louis

The Cardinals were struck a mighty blow to start the season, as they’ll miss their ace Adam Wainwright. That hurts their ranking a bit, as a higher present talent score might have bumped them a spot or three higher. But they’re still strong at No. 13.

Present Talent – 80.45 (t-11th)

Cardinals Team Preview

Future Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Cardinals Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 77.50 (15th)
Baseball Operations – 79.55 (14th)

At the major league level we know that the Cardinals can be a threat. They feature one of, if not the, best 3-4 combinations in the game in Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday. The supporting cast lacks a bit, though Colby Rasmus and Lance Berkman will provide some additional punch on offense. Yet, as with most of our organizational rankings, we have to dig deeper into the Cardinals organization to fully grasp it. While their average marks in financial resources and baseball operations might not seem interesting on the surface, there is a lot that goes into them.

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