The boom or bust cycle in Florida isn’t currently coming up roses. Will they find revitalization on the backs of their young players once again?

Major League Talent – 77.22 (19th)

Marlins Season Preview

Minor League Talent – 75.00 (t-20th)

Marlins Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 62.00 (30th)
Baseball Operations – 79.44 (17th)

Overall Rating – 72.88 (27th)

Some may quibble with this ranking for the Marlins, and maybe even point to some hardware and the team’s penchant for collecting young talent quickly. The problem with that line of reasoning is that the hardware wasn’t earned so recently any more, and the young talent coming up in the pipelines right now isn’t as elite as it has been in the past.

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* This wraps up the Top 10 lists for all 30 organizations in baseball. FanGraphs is the only place you can get 300+ scouting reports free of charge, so I hope you enjoyed them.

Up next is the compilation list of the Top 100 prospects in baseball, which you should see next Monday. I’ll also be hosting a chat the same day, March 28, at 12:00 Eastern. It’s your chance to ask any prospect-related question that you’ve been dying to discuss.

The Kansas City Royals
2010 MLB Record: 67-95 (fifth place, AL Central)
Minor League Power Ranking: 1st (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Mike Moustakas, 3B
Acquired: 2007 1st round (California HS)
Pro Experience: 4 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AA/AAA
Opening Day Age: 22
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0

Notes: The top prospect for the top minor league system in baseball, Moustakas holds immense potential. The third baseman had a modest start to his pro career, thanks to a temporary hiccup in high-A ball (although he was there at a young age). He then exploded in 2011, reaching the potential that was expected of him since becoming the second overall pick during the ’07 amateur draft. Moustakas killed the ball in double-A with a triple-slash line of .347/.413/.687 in 259 at-bats. His power was off the charts (.340 ISO), and he also showed good control of the strike zone while posting a strikeout rate of 16.2 K% – which is good for a young power hitter. He even had the highest walk rate of his young career at 8.7 BB%. Upon a promotion to triple-A, his patience evaporated (3.4 BB%) but he still managed to hit .293/.314/.564 in 225 at-bats. The big knock on Moustakas is in the field. Despite a strong arm, he struggles with his range and foot work. He has the bat to move to first base, but Eric Hosmer will definitely have something to say about that. Moustakas’ 36 home runs and 124 RBI over the course of the full season is eye popping and he shouldn’t need much more than half a season in triple-A before taking over the hot corner in Kansas City.

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When it comes to sabermetric studies, no single item sees more energy expended with less gain than the analysis of batting orders. The Book basically opened and shut the door on the issue: the best three hitters should bat first, second, and fourth, but even the most egregious of lineup errors won’t cost a team more than a win. It’s also more important to split lefties to avoid LOOGYs than it is to get that perfectly chained lineup.

That doesn’t mean that lineup construction isn’t fun, and I’ve certainly spent my share of time on largely fruitless but enjoyable studies on the batting order. There’s a tool available over at Baseball Musings that seems to make things easier for everybody, spitting out optimal lineups and even run totals for any lineup you can think of. Unfortunately, the numbers it spits out cannot be trusted and are no longer a reflection of reality.

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The Tampa Bay Rays
2010 MLB Record: 96-66 (first place, AL East)
Minor League Power Ranking: 2nd (out of 30)
Click for: Last Year’s Top 10 Prospect List

The Prospects

1. Jeremy Hellickson, RHP
Acquired: 2005 4th round (Iowa HS)
Pro Experience: 5 seasons
2010 MiLB Level: AAA/MLB
Opening Day Age: 24
Estimated Peak WAR: 6.0

Notes: Hellickson stands to be one of the most promising rookie pitchers in the Majors in 2011. The 23-year-old hurler does have some hurdles to clear, though. The Rays have a lot of pitching depth so he may end up as a long reliever to begin the season — or he could open 2011 in Triple-A (although he has nothing left to prove in the minors). Hellickson has the ceiling of a No. 1 or 2 pitcher and he held his own in a brief MLB trial in ’10. He showed good strikeout numbers while also showcasing above-average control for his age. I would like to see him improve upon his ground ball rate from triple-A (37%); being a fly-ball pitcher in the potent AL East is never easy. He throws with a three-quarter arm slot and utilizes an easy delivery that doesn’t put much stress on his shoulder, which bodes well for the future. Hellickson has a good fastball-changeup combination, and improved command of his curveball could transform him into a Rookie of the Year candidate if he receives the opportunity to start.

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This is Team Joy Squad for 2011. The introduction and #25-#21 appeared here yesterday.

#20 – Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado

I believe the reader will agree immediately that, should we endeavor to compose a brief list of Modern Catching Greats, it would be difficult to exclude from said list the names Yorvit Torrealba and Miguel Olivo. So it makes sense, then, that Rockies coaches Clint Hurdle and then Jim Tracy would limit Iannetta’s major league plate appearances over these last two-plus seasons in favor of aforementioned Greats. This year, however, only Jose Morales and a cadre of prospects stand between Iannetta and starterdom. Accordingly, the 27-year-old Iannetta will be given at least some kind of opportunity to build on a 2008 campaign that saw him post a 3.6 WAR. Has Iannetta struggled at times? One-hundred percent yes. Might he have defensive deficiencies? Possibly. Has he also displayed power and patience not commonly found at the catching posish? Also affirmative. Also, he’s Italian — which, that counts for something.

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The answer is not in a major league or minor league camp.

Two years ago, Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron had some nice things to say about Willy Aybar. In early 2009, Cameron called him the best reserve player in baseball and said he was deserving of an everyday job in the Major Leagues. Back then, there was a lot to like about Aybar.

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Have you ever noticed how debates have a tendency to polarize a conversation? I sometimes feel like engaging in a debate with someone makes it less likely that we’ll find a common ground on some issue, as both sides dig in, believing they are 100% accurate while the other side is spewing garbage. Points get exaggerated in an effort to prove the other person wrong, and the debate becomes a black-or-white affair with none of the all important shades of gray. I’ve noticed this before with players: if the mainstream media likes a player more than I feel they’re worth, I have a tendency to push back against that and over-exaggerate the player’s flaws in an attempt to balance out the other side. Jason Bartlett didn’t deserve to be named the Rays’ MVP in 2008, but he was certainly more valuable than the amount of flak he received from saber-Rays fans as a result.

When the Luis Castillo news came out last Friday, I was immediately reminded of the old sabermetric discussions over “grit” and team chemistry. Up until a few seasons ago, many mainstream writers (and fans) loved to tout the importance of chemistry in leading a team to success, and they had a tendency to treat gritty players that work hard and play the game “the right way” as demigods. That’s not say that these type of arguments have vanished; there are still plenty of writers and fans that value chemistry and grit, but it’s become tougher and tougher to find articles espousing that point of view. For the most part, this is a debate that the saberists have won: it’s not that character attributes don’t exist, but that they have a very small influence on performance and are impossible to separate from all the surrounding statistical noise.

But just because something has a small and indeterminate effect doesn’t mean we can ignore it completely.  In fact, I’d argue that a General Manager should take a player’s makeup into account…just not as much as the grit lovers would have you believe.

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The Pirates have some strength on the farm (though, it should be noted, that tie for 5th place is a 10-way tie, as Marc and Reed handled the prospect ratings, and with just two voters, the organizations are clustered more tightly in that section), but they are not very well regarded in the other three areas, and so they find themselves in the bottom tier once again.

Major League Talent: 67.50 (t-27th)

Pirates Season Preview

Minor League Talent: 85.00 (t-5th)

Pirates Top 10 Prospects

Financial: 70.38 (27th)
Baseball Operations: 75.00 (t-25th)

Overall Rating – 72.87 (28th)

In some ways, the Pittsburgh Pirates are the National League Central’s answer to the Cleveland Indians. Both are led by forward-thinking front offices, and Pirates’ General Manager Neal Huntington was a member of Cleveland’s front office for about ten years. Both front offices have hired prominent internet “saberists”: Keith Woolner in Cleveland and Dan Fox in Pittsburgh. Both are in the midst of painful rebuilding processes. Both are strapped for cash. Both seem to make moves that look good on paper but don’t quite work out in reality. Cleveland at least has the memory of their 2007 run in the playoffs, whereas Pittsburgh has experienced nearly two decades of futility. That is extremely unlikely to change soon for the Pirates, but there are some signs of hope for the future in Pittsburgh if they keep on the present course and catch a few breaks.

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Quite the fall from grace – not that long ago viewed as one of the best young teams in baseball, the Diamondbacks are rebuilding once again.

Present Talent – 69.17 (26th)

Diamondbacks 2011 Season Preview

Future Talent – 80.00 (t-16th)

Diamondbacks 2011 top 10 prospects

Financial Resources – 69.62 (27th)
Baseball Operations – 75.00 (t-25th)

Overall Rating – 72.38 (29th)

The Diamondbacks front office has been in transition since the middle of 2010. On July 1 ownership fired GM Josh Byrnes, just two and a half years after signing him to an eight-year extension. That left Jerry DiPoto in charge of the team for a few months until management hired Kevin Towers to take over the role.

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Sorry, Astros fans – for the second year in a row, your team is bringing up the rear.

Present Talent – 65.00 (30th)

Astros Season Preview

Future Talent – 65.00 (30th)

Astros Top 10 Prospects

Financial Resources – 72.69 (23rd)
Baseball Operations – 62.50 (30th)

Overall Rating – 66.68 (30th)

Things aren’t going very well down in Houston. In addition to having both the worst rated major league roster and the bleakest future outlook in terms of talent, the Astros also scored the lowest grade of any baseball operations department, and were in the bottom tier of teams in terms of financial resources. There isn’t just one glaring problem here – it’s a collection of wide-ranging issues that harm the team’s chances of winning now or any time in the foreseeable future.

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