Archive for April, 2011

Cubs Suffer Simultaneous Rotation Injuries

There is no use denying that as a Mariner fan I took great delight in the happenings surrounding Carlos Silva this spring. There are few players that I have rooted harder against than he, and to see his self-appraisal turn out to be delusional gave me joy at a time when Spring Training was wearing thin. With the season beginning, I was prepared to toss Silva out of mind and get on with following the many interesting stories cropping up from those that play Major League baseball.

That is, until this morning when I was greeted with the following two notices in rapid succession.

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FanGraphs Chat – 4/6/11


One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for April 6th

Keep One Night Only away from skin, eyes… and grown-ups! They’re the worst!

Los Angeles Americans at Tampa Bay | 1:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Angels: Dan Haren
224.3 IP, 8.55 K/9, 1.81 BB/9, 3.23 FIP, 117 ERA+ (ZiPS)

Rays: Jeremy Hellickson
135.7 IP, 7.89 K/9, 3.12 BB/9, 3.42 FIP, 118 ERA+ (ZiPS)

On Jeremy Hellickson
Today marks the season debut of Jeremy Hellickson, one of the many PYTs the Rays’ farm system has to offer its adoring public. Hellickson made his major league debut last year after spending most of the season showing International Leaguers what’s what.

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The Morning After: Games of 4/5/11

Blue Jays 7, A’s 6

Moving the Needle: Yunel Escobar turns a one-run deficit into a win with one swing, +.655 WPA. The A’s owned this one early, going up 5-1 after four. But then the Blue Jays took advantage of three A’s errors — two by Kevin Kouzmanoff — en route to a four-run sixth. Two of those runs they scored on outs. The A’s went ahead in the 10th when Josh Willingham led off with a homer, but the Jays answered when Rajai Davis singled and Escobar hit an opposite field liner that cleared the wall. That, my friends, is easily our biggest WPA swing of the evening.

Notables

Brandon McCarthy: 8 IP, 7 H, 5 R, 2 ER, 1 BB, 2 K, 0 HR, 14 GB. Those Kouzmanoff errors really killed his otherwise solid performance. The last time McCarthy went eight was on May 24, 2009, when he pitched a complete game shutout against Houston.

Andy LaRoche: 2 for 3, 1 2B. That’s a quality batting line, sure. But it’s notable because he started at…shortstop. It would have been his first professional innings, majors or minors, at shortstop had the A’s not already played him there for three innings this year.

Also in this issue: Indians 3, Red Sox 1, Twins 5, Yankees 4, Angels 5, Rays 3, Cubs 6, Diamondbacks 5, Reds 8, Astros 2, Marlins 3, Nationals 2, Mets 7, Phillies 1, Padres 3, Giants 1, Rockies 3, Dodgers 0, Royals 7, White SOx 6, Brewers 1, Braves 0, Rangers 3, Mariners 2, Cardinals 3, Pirates 2

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Jays Decline Hill’s Oddly Structured Options

Teams have gravitated toward contract options in recent years in an attempt to better insure themselves against a lack of payroll flexibility. Options allow teams to retain players in future seasons without guaranteeing the salary. Some deals, like the one Aaron Hill signed after a solid 3.5 win season in 2007, include multiple options.

Hill’s contract is particularly interesting as it includes a unique clause related to the options for the 2012-14 seasons. Before their season opener against the Twins, the Jays had the ability to exercise or decline all three of those options at once. They structured the deal in a manner that allowed them to make a decision on the three option years as a cohesive unit before the season while still being able to exercise the individual options for 2012 and 2013 if they so desired at the end of the year.

The move carries little risk. The Jays eliminated the possibility of Hill earning the $10 million his contract called for if the 2014 option were to be picked up, while leaving open the possibility of bringing him back at $8 million each over the next two seasons. It almost seems as if the 2014 option was used exclusively as a ploy to entice Hill into signing the deal. Why else structure a contract in this unique manner?

As fun as the contractual clause is to discuss, Hill’s numbers are even more interesting.

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The Minus Stats

Last week, the big boss around here rolled out the newest stats to hit the site; ERA-, FIP-, and xFIP-. I know, I know, the last thing FanGraphs needs is more numbers with weird acronyms, and now we’re introducing stats that have acronyms followed by a mark that often indicates that subtraction is on the way? Who wants to be caught in conversation saying “Cliff Lee had a FIP minus of 62 last year”? Not me, that’s for sure.

But, that’s the beauty of these new numbers – they actually give us the ability to describe advanced pitching metrics in plain english. You can use them without ever actually using the acronym; for example, “Cliff Lee was 38 percent better than average at things pitchers have the most control over.” You’ve just explained Lee’s FIP- in one not-overly-confusing sentence, and you’ve done it without causing the person you’re conversing with to yell “NERD!” and walk away.

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Salary Inflation Estimates for 2012

Ahh, the joys of small samples. Home runs are up, Kansas City is a contender and Howie Kendrick somehow pulled a Vice Versa with Albert Pujols. Thankfully, there are some statistics we do not have to wait until May to analyze. The average Major League salary is up 1.2-percent from last season, and, unlike Jorge Posada’s 162-homer pace, it’s for real.

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A Look at Drabek’s 2011 Debut

In a division that is filled with talented, young starters, Kyle Drabek of the Toronto Blue Jays has flown a bit under the radar. That has more to do with the multitude of talent that surrounds him in the division than it does Drabek, who was considered a top-15 prospect by some. Nonetheless, the key piece of the Roy Halladay return and the organization’s top prospect according to Marc Hulet, quietly entered the season as member of Toronto’s rotation.

The son of a former Cy Young award winner (obligatory Doug Drabek mention) made his major-league debut last season. In the small sample size of three starts, he posted decent results; however, we’re talking about 17 innings of work. Looking past the results, his fastball which was consistently in mid-90’s fastball and his plus curveball both matched scouting reports from the minors. While his strikeout rate was around average, he showed the ability to miss bats at an above-average rate. Following him from his time as a minor leaguer was the ability to induce ground balls in bunches.

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Early NL RoY Favorite: Brandon Belt

When the Giants organization nabbed Brandon Belt in the fifth round of the 2009 draft the selection went by with nary a whisper of appreciation or a ripple of applause. Fast forward less than two years and the first baseman is one of the early favorites for Rookie of the Year in the National League and his presence on the roster has sent 12-year veteran Aubrey Huff from first base to right field.

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Elvis Andrus Hit a Home Run

Elvis Andrus hit a home run. Elvis Andrus hit a home run!

He hadn’t hit one in 178 games.

It’s all good of course. His defense and speed make him a valuable part of the team, especially while he’s cost-controlled. But 178 games is kind of a long time.

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