We’re pleased to republish this often referenced article by Pizza Cutter that originally appeared in StatSpeak.net on November 14th 2007.

What does a year really tell you about a player? Seriously. If I gave you the seasonal stats for any player last year (or the year before), how much could you really tell me about him? If I told you he hit .300 last year, are you confident that deep down, he’s really a .300 hitter? How do you measure a year in the life?

Like a lot of things that happen out here in the Sabersphere, I take my inspiration for this (series of?) article(s?) from a conversation that went on at the Inside the Book blog. A few folks were discussing an article that I wrote here at StatSpeak on productive outs and as these things are wont to do, the conversation wandered. Inside the Book co-author MGL asked me a fair question: when I talked about productive outs, what sample size I was dealing with. Not so much how many player-years were in my data set, but for each of those player years, how many PA’s did each player have. It’s a much more important question than you might think.

Read the rest of this entry »

Dust. Wind. Dude.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Previews for three games, all featuring Flawless Information™ (i.e. sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections for pitchers).

2. Razor-sharp and totally updated Base Runs standings (i.e. the best kind of standings).

3. A poll of a philosophical nature.

Read the rest of this entry »

Snider channeled this anger into the game-winning hit.

Blue Jays 6, Yankees 5

Moving the Needle: Travis Snider walks off with a double int the gap, +.433 WPA. It doesn’t happen often, but it happened last night. Mariano Rivera blew a two-run lead in the ninth — and was lucky to escape a bases-loaded, one out jam with the winning run on third. But the Jays came back the next inning and knocked around Ivan Nova a bit. Snider’s double scored Edwin Encarnacion all the way from first, giving the Jays a much-needed win.

Notables

Jose Bautista: 1 fot 3, 1 HR, 2 BB. His homer opened the scoring, and his ninth-inning run, on a John McDonald bunt, tied the game at five.

Curtis Granderson: 2 for 5, 1 HR. Continues to have as many homers as singles (5). Eight of his 13 hits have gone for extra bases.

Also in this issue: Orioles 11, Twins 0 | Diamondbacks 5, Reds 4 | Royals 5, Indian 4 | Giants 6, Rockies 3 | A’s 5, Red Sox 0 | Marlins 6, Pirates – | Mariners 13, Tigers 3 | Braves 10, Dodgers 1 | Rays 2, White Sox 1 | Astros 6, Mets 1 | Angels 15, Rangers 4 | Brewers 9, Phillies 0 |

Read the rest of this entry »

James Loney isn’t good enough to be a big-league starter.

In 486 plate appearances from 2006-07, Loney hit .321/.372/.543 and took the league by storm. At just 23 years of age, his future seemed bright. He boasted a sweet left-handed swing, smart baserunning ability, and smooth glovework.

He has since spent 1,951 plate appearances slashing .279/.341/.409 — a sub-replacement level line for the position — with an average UZR. He hasn’t shown any signs of improving or turning the corner. He slugged below .400 in each of the last two seasons. His ability to reach base has sputtered in spite of league average BABIP rates. His defense has been decent, but underwhelming, which has exacerbated the offensive woes.

Loney is now 27 years old and clearly lacks the requisite skills for a regular starting role.

Read the rest of this entry »

Episode Seventy-One
In which the guest is preceded by the definite article.

Headlines
The Art of Writing — Waxed Poetically About!
The Field of Economics — Mostly Glossed Over!
“That’s What She Said” Joke — Totally Made!

Featuring
THE Bradley Woodrum, Man About the Internet

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 45 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »

Podcast: Play in new window | Download

Subscribe: RSS

It happens every year. A manager gets an itchy trigger finger early in the season and buries a guy before he even gets a chance to earn the faith the manager put in him to start the season. This year is no different, and with an idea sparked from Eric Seidman’s piece yesterday on Brad Emaus — an article that the Mets completely ignored when they waived him today — I present the 2011 Brad Emaus All-Stars.
Read the rest of this entry »

When St. Louis signed Lance Berkman this offseason, it raised a lot of questions:

“Don’t the Cardinals still have Pujols?”

“Wait, he’s going to play outfield?”

“Can he even hit anymore?”

Through the first two weeks of the season, the Cardinals’ gamble on the man called “The Big Puma” is paying off.

Read the rest of this entry »

Two weeks ago this would have been a much tougher decision. Back then Brandon Belt, heralded 23-year-old rookie, top prospect, was busy exciting the Giants’ fan base. At that point it was tough to even think of Cody Ross, whose spring training injury opened up the spot for Belt in the first place. But now, two weeks later, the decision appears a bit more obvious. Ross figures to return tonight, meaning someone has to go. Belt, who hasn’t recorded an extra base hit since the 8th and who is currently sporting a .281 wOBA, will likely make the trip back to Fresno. That decision is fairly easy. Belt’s eventual return, though, might ride on a bigger decision down the road.

Read the rest of this entry »

The iconic sound of college baseball is gone.

The “ping” that separated amateurs from professionals for nearly four decades disappeared this year. And in its place is a sound that is, well…. not quite so memorable.

As part of its ongoing attempt to temper the trampoline effect of metal bats – and in part lessen on-the-job hazards for pitchers and infielders in the college game – the NCAA this year mandated that bat manufacturers follow a new standard that now makes metal bats only slightly more lively than wood bats. So no ping. Not even a craaack. These days, the sound of ball meeting bat is more like a thwock. “It sounds like a bag of chips,” one scout says.

Read the rest of this entry »