One Night Only: Hot Game Previews for April 20th


Dust. Wind. Dude.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Previews for three games, all featuring Flawless Information™ (i.e. sexy, updated Team NERD scores and sexy, updated ZiPS projections for pitchers).

2. Razor-sharp and totally updated Base Runs standings (i.e. the best kind of standings).

3. A poll of a philosophical nature.

Cleveland (10) at Kansas City (9) | 8:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Indians: Justin Masterson
185.1 IP, 7.14 K/9, 3.40 BB/9, 3.52 FIP

Royals: Luke Hochevar
162.2 IP, 6.25 K/9, 2.60 BB/9, 4.37 FIP

Big Philosophical Question
Yesterday’s Indians-Royals game finished 5-4 in favor of Kansas City. Much of the contest wasn’t particularly close, as evidenced by the game’s slightly below-average Average Leverage Index (aLI) of 0.97, but the score was quite close in the end and closer Joakim Soria ended the affair by striking out Carlos Santana with the bases loaded and the tying run on third — a moment that constituted the game’s Peak Leverage Index (pkLI) of 9.16.

In Toronto, meanwhile, the Blue Jays beat the Yankees 6-5. Not only was the game close for the duration, but the home team forced extra innings by scoring two runs in the ninth off Mariano Rivera, after which Toronto won in the 10th inning. All of that led to a 1.71 aLI, yet, for one reason or another, the pkLI was lower than in the Indians-Royals game, at just 7.16.

So, question: Which is more interesting, a game that produces a higher aLI (i.e. is closer for longer) or a game that produces a higher pkLI (i.e. one particular moment that decides the fate of the entire game in favor of one team or the other)?

Alternatively, is there just too little information to answer such a question in the abstract?

A Poll on That Same Topic
Here’s a poll that asks roughly the same questions I’ve just posed above.


A Brief Note About Luke Hochevar
It’s the first time I, personally, have noticed this, but it appears as though Luke Hochevar is constantly becoming a better pitcher — to the point where, now, he’s actually what you could call a “good” starting pitcher.

Regard: in each of the past three seasons, Hochevar has thrown more than 100 innings. His xFIPs over those seasons go like this (starting with 2008): 4.64, 4.28, 4.09 (xFIP-s of 107, 97, and 98). Now, through his first 25.2 innings of 2011, his xFIP sits at 3.83 (giving him a 94 xFIP- in the current run environment).

He’s mostly done it by being about average, or slightly better, at everything. And while that’s not exactly what you hope for from a first-overall draft pick (in 2006), it’s also better than a complete bust.

Pittsburgh (6) at Florida (5) | 7:10pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Pirates: Charlie Morton
163.0 IP, 5.19 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 4.68 FIP

Marlins: Ricky Nolasco
193.0 IP, 8.02 K/9, 1.73 BB/9, 3.60 FIP

Notes
• Last year, Charlie Morton had a 6.67 K/9, 2.94 BB/9, 46.8 GB%, and 4.11 xFIP in 79.2 innings, but a miserable 7.57 ERA.
• So far this year, he has a 2.45 K/9, 4.91 BB/9, 68.7 GB%, and 4.94 xFIP in 22.0 innings — is, for all intents and purposes, pitching worse — but has produced a 1.64 ERA.
• The reason, as Dave Cameron explained yesterday, is pretty simple: he (i.e. Morton) is throwing almost exclusively two-seam fastballs, almost exclusively low and away to batters.
• That doesn’t seem like a sustainable approach.
• Thing to ask yourself as you watch: “Is it sustainable for tonight, at least?”

Washington (4) at St. Louis (8) | 8:15pm ET
Starting Pitchers
Nationals: Jordan Zimmermann
104.1 IP, 7.16 K/9, 2.85 BB/9, 3.66 FIP

Cardinals: Jaime Garcia
130.0 IP, 7.96 K/9, 3.32 BB/9, 3.20 FIP

Notes
• All of a sudden, the Cardinals have the best offense in the majors.
• And are tied with the Reds for best team WAR (offense+fielding), too.
• This, despite the fact that Albert Pujols, famous for being The Best Player in the Majors, is 10th on his own team with a 0.1 WAR.
• Of course, a lot of that has to do with his .211 BABIP (although his walk rate is about half his career level so far, too — so that’s a bit strange).
• Extra bonus for everyone: Ryan Franklin will very likely not be asked to pitch in a high-leverage situation tonight.

Base Runs Standings
Completely Superfluous Heading in Bold
Below, please find a selection from the the Base Runs Standings spreadsheet created by John Wright (and available for download here).

(Note: the image should expand if you click on it. If it doesn’t, opening it in a new window should work.)





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Matt
12 years ago

I put other, as I feel a game with multiple lead changes is the most exciting to watch. That would more than likely lead to a higher aLI, but I felt it was specific enough to warrant separate classification.