Episode Seventy-Five
In which the panel is in a state of emergency — and also Canada.

Headlines
Jose Bautista — Marveled At, Perpetually!
Shaun Marcum and Chris Narveson — Marveled At, Just This Once!
Various Broadcasters — Considered Haphazardly!

Featuring
Dave Cameron, Full-Time Employee
Matt Klaassen, Child-Haver
Jackie Moore, Man About Across Town

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 50 min play time.)

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A Lame Beggar
I am unable, yonder beggar cries,
To stand, or move; If he say true, he lies.
   -John Donne

One of the MLB’s most backward leagues, the National League Central, appears primed for a face lift. The weakest NL league is within reach of establishing itself as dominator and shaking its beggar reputation.

The Houston Astros, presently undergoing an ownership change, have become bedfellows with rumors about the Rays de facto general manager Andrew Friedman and the Rockets’ shrewd GM Daryl Morey.

Meanwhile, the Cubs have already undergone one faux-firing this season (last week, an internet rumor spread like whipped butter on the toast that is Twitter, proclaiming the Cubs had fired GM Jim Hendry) and the team is now fighting the odds to have a winning season. The rampant speculation with the Cubs has formed the central narrative that Hendry faces a win-or-be-gone season, and this year’s sub-.500 start has alerted the gravediggers.

What could a regime change in Houston and Chicago mean for the NL Central, a division burdened with excess teams and limited success? Possibly a lot.
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Matt Garza probably thought he was through the sixth inning of Tuesday’s game against the Reds when Miguel Cairo stepped into the batters box. He definitely thought he was after Cairo waved at a slider in the dirt with two strikes. But then all of this happened. In the box score and the play logs, it goes down as a simple dropped third strike, but clearly there is more to the story. Let’s break down perhaps the most “Chicago Cubs” play of the season so far.

Thanks to the commenters drew and Rick for pointing out a rule that I missed. Check out an update after the conclusion of the original story.

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Following the 2005 season the Red Sox made a move that, while unpopular, appeared to benefit them in the long run. Beloved member of the 2004 World Championship team, Johnny Damon hit free agency. He had spent four mostly solid years in Boston, though 2004 was the clear highlight (.373 wOBA). After negotiations led to a less than desired offer from the Sox, Damon signed a four-year, $51 million contract with the Yankees.

With Damon out of the picture, the Red Sox moved onto another target — a younger player who perhaps represented the potential of a young Damon. And so they traded Edgar Renteria, after one terrible season, to the Braves for top prospect Andy Marte, whom they then flipped to the Indians for Coco Crisp. Given Crisp’s track record at the time, it was hard to find fault with the move.

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Prospect Danny Duffy, making his major-league debut tonight, has done a lot of work with exhaling.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for two games: prospect Danny Duffy’s debut and prospect Julio Teheran’s second-ever start.

2. Brief, but no less charming, previews for three other games: Colorado at Philadelphia, Tampa Bay at Toronto, and Chicago (NL) at Florida.

3. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games (using the highly experimental and dangerous pitcher-heavy method discussed recently).

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Throughout much of sabermetric cyberspace, The Beauty of Short Hops: How Chance and Circumstance Confound the Moneyball Approach to Baseball, is being panned, its co-authors, Alan and Sheldon Hirsch, labeled as backwards-thinking ignoramuses [and worse]. Some of the criticism is merited — the book certainly has its flaws — but looking at its content objectively, it is also necessary to ask: Do the authors make some valid points? In this interview, Alan Hirsch defends, and clarifies, several of them.

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David Laurila: The first chapter of the book is, “Where Moneyball Went Wrong.” Why do you feel that Moneyball — most commonly defined as “identifying undervalued assets in baseball (often through the use of statistical analysis)” — is a failed approach?

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Should of thrown to first.

Reds 7, Cubs 5

Moving the Needle: The Cubs beat themselves, -.759 WPA. I really have no better way to describe what happened last night than that. The Reds did put themselves in favorable positions, but the Cubs made it all too easy for them to cash in. We start in the first, when Carlos Pena, about whose schneid we talked earlier this week, hit a three-run homer. That would be great if he didn’t give all the runs back in the fourth. Edinson Volquez hit one that Pena probably should have fielded, but it bounced past him. Darwin Barney backed him up, but instead of throwing home to try and nab Scott Rolen, he threw to Matt Garza, who threw home. Only it was way off the mark, into the camera well, bringing home the trail runner and putting Volquez on third. Tie game.

The Cubs put up a pair later in the game, but then cost themselves again in the eighth. A pair of hits put runners on first and second with none out, and the Reds had Ryan Hanigan sacrifice them. Kerry Wood fielded it and tried to get the runner going to third, but threw it away. Not only that, but he threw it all the way into the left field corner, which allowed both runners to score easily and Hanigan to take third. The miscue set up Chris Heisey’s go-ahead sac fly.

Notables

Scott Rolen: 2 for 3, 1 2B, 1 BB. His double to lead off the eighth got the ball rolling.

Edinson Volquez: 6 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 1 HR. No, it’s not standout, but those nine strikeouts are a season high. So there’s that, at least.

Also in this issue: White Sox 4, Rangers 3 | Diamondbacks 6, Padres 1 | Indians 7, Royals 3 | Braves 3, Astros 1 | A’s 14, Angels 0 | Yankees 6, Rays 2 | Twins 2, Mariners 1 | Rockies 5, Giants 3 | Dodgers 3, Brewers 0 | Cardinals 2, Phillies 1

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Today, we wrap up our look back at the 2008 amateur draft. It usually takes about five years to get a true picture of how teams did in a given draft, but we can definitely get a good feel for how clubs fared in ’08. We previously reviewed the American League: AL West, the AL Central and the AL East, as well as the other National League clubs: NL West and the NL Central.

The first three rounds are listed for each team, plus any other above-slot signees.
(X = Signed to Over-Slot Deal; S = Supplemental Round; DNS = Did Not Sign)

The New York Mets
1st. Ike Davis, OF, Arizona State
1st. Reese Havens, IF, South Carolina
1S. Brad Holt, RHP, UNC Wilmington
2nd. Javier Rodriguez, OF, Puerto Rico HS
3rd. Kirk Nieuwenhuis, OF, Cal NAIA

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In honor of the fast-approaching 2011 amateur draft, we’ve been taking a look back at the 2008 draft. We previously reviewed the American League: AL West, the AL Central and the AL East. You can also catch up on the NL West post. The National League East is up next and will round out the series.

The first three rounds are listed for each team, plus any other above-slot signees.
(X = Signed to Over-Slot Deal; S = Supplemental Round; DNS = Did Not Sign)

The Cincinnati Reds
1st. Yonder Alonso, 1B, U of Miami
2nd. None
3rd. Zach Stewart, RHP, Texas
11thx – Andrew Means, OF, Indiana
30thx – Juan Carlos Sulbaran, RHP, Florida HS
35thx – Matt Fairel, LHP, Florida State

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