Jim Fleming
Vice President Player Development/Scouting,
Assistant General Manager
Florida Marlins

Mr. Fleming:

I am writing you to report on a prospect who could make a positive impact on the 2011 Florida Marlins club, and its race for a playoff position. With veteran third baseman Scott Rolen signed to a very club-favorable contract through 2012, now is the time to strike with Cincinnati Reds prospect Todd Frazier. The Reds organization has a very strong bench and versatility to spare so Frazier is a luxury that the club can afford to part with. The Reds organization also has excellent upper-level infield depth with Juan Francisco, Zack Cozart and Chris Valaika. The club could be looking for pitching depth, especially in the bullpen.

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Padres outfielder Will Venable was sent to the minor leagues today. Amazingly for a 28-year old with a .224/.293/.291 line and a neutral-looking .300 BABIP, it’s actually worth wondering if he deserved this fate. His case may help us understand something about focus and areas of improvement — because Will Venable has actually made some improvements this year, but perhaps not in the right areas.

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Arizona’s Josh Collmenter is among the league leaders in Capital-J Joy.

This edition of One Night Only contains:

1. Expanded previews for three games: Arizona at Colorado, Boston at Cleveland, and Toronto at New York (AL),

2. Pitcher and Team NERD scores for every one of tonight’s games.

3. More images than usual, so’s to distract the reader from a lack of actual content.

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Note: This was all but finished yesterday, but due to a personal matter I was unable to put the finishing touches on it and post live. Please treat all stats and observations to be as of Monday morning.

We’re doing it like EPMD this week, strictly business.

1. New York Yankees: Last week – 2, WAR% – .640 (2), FAN% – .580 (2), TOTAL% – .5967
If you had to pick one Yankee to be atop the ISO leaderboards, you might pick Mark Teixeira (7th) or Alex Rodriguez (22nd), but you probably wouldn’t pick Russell Martin (21st) or Curtis Granderson (2nd), whose tear has his star rising almost as fast as Rosie Huntington-Whiteley’s

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It’s not quite a chest bump, but it’ll do.

Astros 4, Dodgers 3

Moving the Needle: Michael Bourn doubles home the tying runs and sets up the victory, +.469 WPA. In a way, it was compensation for an error that cost his team a run. In the seventh, the Dodgers had runners on first and second with two out when Andre Ethier grounded one up the middle. Bourn charged, probably in an attempt to nab the slow Dioner Navarro trying to score from second. But he missed the ball. By the time he recovered the Dodgers had scored two. When he came up in the ninth he was in the same situation, first and second with two outs, but Bill Hall did him a solid by starting a double steal. Bourn then doubled down the right field line to tie the game, which put him in position to score when Hunter Pence singled.

Notables

Bill Hall: 2 for 4, 2 2B. His Astros tenure hasn’t gone well so far, but he played a huge part in this win.

Clayton Kershaw: 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 7 K. He was at only 84 pitches, but he was lifted in the top of the seventh for Ethier.

Also in this issue: Angels 4, A’s 1 | Indian 3, Astros 2 | Brewers 11, Nationals 3 | Tigers 6, Rays 3 | Phillies 10, Reds 3 | Mariners 8, Twins 7 | Cardinals 3, Padres 1 | Blue Jays 7, Yankees 3 | Rangers 4, White Sox 0

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After reaching the playoffs for the first time in fourteen seasons in 2010, the Cincinnati Reds entered this season with huge expectations. The main reason for optimism centered around the return of Edinson Volquez. Though Volquez technically pitched for the Reds last season, he was still recovering from the effects of Tommy John surgery. Finally expected to be healthy for the entire season, it looked as if the Reds finally had their ace. That hasn’t been the case, however, as Volquez has struggled mightily in his return. After only ten starts, the Reds have sent Volquez back to Triple A to see if he can work out his issues. On top of demoting their Opening Day starter, the Reds are also in the midst of a six-game losing streak. With all their recent issues, is it time to start worrying about the Reds? In a word, no.

The Reds were able to win the NL Central last season with a minimal contribution from Volquez. Due to his recovery from Tommy John, Volquez returned in late-July, and pitched only 62.2 innings for the Reds. Even if Volquez remains in the minors for the rest of 2011 – an unlikely scenario – the Reds can still contend for the division without him considering they already did it last season.

The loss of Volquez shouldn’t hurt the Reds all that much due to their strong pitching depth. As Albert Lyu chronicled before the season, the Reds had multiple starters competing for only five rotation spots. Even though Volquez and Mike Leake haven’t panned out, the Reds still have a decent four-man staff. While they haven’t announced who will take Volquez’s spot in the rotation just yet, Sam LeCure and Matt Maloney could be decent placeholders for the time being.

Their period in the rotation may be short-lived, however, as Volquez or Leake could return at any moment. The Reds voluntarily chose to remove both pitchers from the rotation due to their poor performances, not due to injury. Although they may have been demoted, they are not gone for the season. The Reds can still call upon Volquez or Leake whenever they deem it necessary.

If the Reds hope to reach the same heights as they did last season, their offense is going to have to remain strong. After finishing 1st in offensive WAR last season, the Reds have nearly kept up the pace in 2011. Instead of experiencing regression after his MVP season, Joey Votto may actually be getting better. With Brandon Phillips again turning in another fine season and Jay Bruce finally manifesting the power everyone expected, the Reds once again have a promising core of hitters. That’s true even without mentioning Drew Stubbs, who is currently experiencing a nice breakout season.

All told, there’s little reason to worry in Cincinnati. Despite the losing streak, the Reds are only 3.5 games out of first place. Since we know not to overreact to small samples, we should expect the Reds to turn things around soon. The temporary loss of Volquez shouldn’t alter our expectations, as the Reds were able to win the division with a minimal contribution from him last season. This current version of the Reds is much like the team we saw last season. Their pitching is good enough to keep them in games, but their offense (and defense) is what will ultimately propel them to a division crown. The Reds may appear more vulnerable than they did last week, but in reality little has changed.

I’m pleased to announce that FanGraphs is now carrying a comprehensive base running stat: Mitchel Lichtman’s Ultimate Base Running (UBR).

UBR is now being included in WAR for years where UBR is available (2002-2011).

Though 95% of all players will have their WAR changed less than .4 wins in any particular season and less than 1.3 wins over their careers, we feel that the inclusion of UBR in WAR will help properly credit/debit players who truly excel or are particularly awful on the base paths.

UBR is available under “Bsr” or “Base Running” in the player pages and leaderboards.

Here’s an excerpt from the UBR primer that we’ll be posting later today:

Base running linear weights or base running runs, or Ultimate Base Running (UBR), is similar to the outfield arm portion of UZR. Whatever credit (positive or negative) is given to an outfielder based on a runner hold, advance, or kill on a batted ball is also given in reverse to the runner (or runners). There are some plays that a runner is given credit (again plus or minus) for that do not involve an outfielder, such as being safe or out going from first to second on a ground ball to the infield, or advancing, remaining, or being thrown out going from second to third on a ground ball to SS or 3B.

Runs are awarded to base runners in the same way they are rewarded to outfielders on “arm” plays. The average run value in terms of the base/out state is subtracted from the actual run value (also in terms of the resultant base/out state) on a particular play where a base runner is involved. The result of the subtraction is the run value awarded to the base runner on that play.

In the wake of his demolition of the Twins the previous weekend, last week was apparently the Nerdosphere’s official Jose Bautista Fest. As we bask in the the heat generated by the re-entry of Bautista’s various shots into the left-field seats, it is worth noticing some striking similarities between the mashing Blue Jay’s recent path and that begun just a season earlier by Tampa Bay’s Ben Zobrist. While Bautista is easily the superior hitter, Zobrist is no slouch himself. Beyond the general career parallels, what might make this worth examining is what we might learn about the sort of hitters that can develop power seemingly “out of nowhere” as these two did.

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In case you missed the first article in this series — in which I talk about another way to look at BABIP — I’m trying to take a look at alternative ways to present sabermetric stats, in order to best represent them to an audience.

When you stop and think about it, despite the numerous baseball statistics out there, there are only a few limited ways of talking about a batter’s power. While there are a multitude of options when talking about plate discipline — On-Base Percentage, walk rate, outside swing rate, etc. — there are only a handful of widely available stats to use for power: the old standby, Slugging Percentage; a player’s raw total of homeruns or extra base hits; or the sabermetric alternative, Isolated Power.

So when you want to talk strictly about how powerful a player has been, which stat do you use? There are pluses and minuses to each of these stats, but do any of them necessarily stand out from the others? I’d argue no.

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