Archive for June, 2011
The Criminally Underrated Ryan Zimmerman
Yesterday, I took part (along with Jonah Keri and 28 other contributors to ESPN’s baseball section) in a Franchise Player Draft. We were tasked with selecting one player who we would want to build our franchise around, and in this hypothetical world, actual contract status was irrelevant. I ended up drawing the fourth pick in the draft, giving me an embarrassment of riches to select from, especially after my request to trade down was denied.
By the time my pick was up, Troy Tulowitzki, Evan Longoria, and Felix Hernandez were off the board. I was pretty sure I wouldn’t get a crack at Tulo, who was a pretty easy call as the first player selected. I figured Longoria would probably be gone as well, and wasn’t surprised at all when Keith Law snapped him up. David Schoenfeld made my life easier by taking Felix, which meant that I didn’t have to worry about whether or not I should consider drafting a pitcher – the only one worthy of that kind of selection in my mind was already gone, allowing me to focus on a handful of elite position players to choose from.
The Morning After: Game Recaps for June 1st
Moving the Needle: Joey Votto’s two-run blast gives the Reds the lead late, +.608 WPA. You can try to hold back the Reds, but when they have Votto and Jay Bruce hitting 3-4, chances are you’re going to get burned at some point. The Brewers jumped out to an early lead and were holding on at 3-0 heading into the bottom of the seventh. Votto single, Bruce homer. Simple as that, and it took just six pitches. Then, in the bottom of the eighth, with a runner on first and two outs, Votto annihilated a pitch. As in, it was going to dead center, but he still did the subtle bat flip at the plate. It hit off the deck well above the 404 sign. I can’t wait to see what that registers on Hit Tracker.
Notables
Shaun Marcum: 7 IP, 5 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 7 K, 1 HR. When your only infraction is a homer to Bruce, you’re probably OK.
Rickie Weeks: 2 for 4, 1 HR. His homer came on the second pitch of the game, and was his 10th of the season.
Also in this issue: White Sox 7, Red Sox 4 | Diamondbacks 6, Marlins 5 | Tigers 4, Twins 2 | Braves 4, Padres 3 | Royals 2, Angels 0 | Astros 3, Cubs 1 | Yankees 4, A’s 2 | Rockies 3, Dodgers 0 | Orioles 2, Mariners 1 | Rangers 3, Rays 0 | Nationals 2, Phillies 1 | Indians 13, Blue Jays 9 | Pirates 9, Mets 3 | Giants 7, Cardinals 5
This Year’s All-Star Travesty: Matt Joyce’s Snub
Every season, without fail, the All-Star Ballot becomes an object of contention; like the Hall of Fame voting, the All-Star Game is simply a lightning rod for debate. Should this glorified exhibition game decide home field advantage in the World Series? Should we even care about the All-Star Game anymore, as interleague play and television have removed its mystique? And of course, which players deserve to make the game? So many people claim to not care about the game, but that doesn’t prevent copious amounts of digital ink being spilled each year on these same 0l’ questions.*
*Personally, I haven’t watched the game the last few years, but I still can’t help but care on who gets selected for the teams. A part of it is stubborn obstinance – someone is wrong on the internet! – and a part of it is you know the players themselves take pride in these things. It’s only natural to want players to get the recognition they deserve, right?
This year’s All-Star Game travesty – outside of the fact that the Yankees are leading the voting in six out of nine slots – is the fact that one of the game’s best young outfielders isn’t even within the top 15 vote receivers at the position. This is a player that is currently leading the major leagues in batting average (.370), has the best slugging percentage (.636) out of all players not named Bautista, and has the third-best on-base percentage in the AL (.430).
This player has posted a .457 wOBA and a 198 wRC+ this year, much higher than Curtis Granderson’s 171 wRC+, and, according to WAR, he’s been the third-most valuable player in the majors this year (3.1 WAR, trailing only Bautista and Halladay). And if you don’t want to consider the fielding aspect of WAR, he’s also been the second-most valuable hitter in the majors, contributing 20.4 offensive runs. Holy cow, why isn’t he getting more love?
Ah, that’s right – he plays in Tampa Bay. Matt Joyce, come on down.
Trade Targets: Relief Pitchers
We’ve already run through first basemen and designated hitters, corner outfielders, and middle infielders who could be available at the trading deadline. Today, we cover five relievers who could be switching teams over the next two months.
PLAYER: Heath Bell
TEAM: Padres
POSSIBLE DESTINATION(S): Cardinals, Indians, Phillies
CONTRACT STATUS: $7.5 million, free agent after the season
PROJECTED WAR: 1.3
Bell is pretty clearly the best “proven closer” on the market, and he’s likely the best overall reliever as well. Even though his K/9 is down to 7.0 this year, his swinging strike rate of 9.1% indicates that it’ll increase a bit, even if it doesn’t get all the way back to his gaudy 11.1 rate from 2010. To compensate, Bell’s ground ball rate is up to 51% this year — an especially nice quality to keep were he to exit spacious PETCO Park.
2011 wOBA: By Batting Order
The following data is current through 5-30-2011.
If you, dear reader, are like me, then you agonize unnecessarily over every lineup on every team in every game. Aaron Rowand leading off?! Yargh! No! Carlos Gomez batting second for the Brewers?! WRONG. Aaron Miles batting anything?! Unforgivable.
Holding egos constant, inefficiency is the greatest enemy of success. With regards to lineups, however, teams can really only lose a handful of runs over the course of full season, but a handful of runs, in real terms, can mean the difference between the division or a boring October. So it’s a dicey proposition. A mismanaged lineup on the Royals team does not mean a whole lot because they will lose the division by several trillion runs. A few lost runs for the Rays, Yankees, or Red Sox, though, can mean the season.
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Proposed Trade: Billy Butler to the Rays
With the Royals recently calling up Eric Hosmer, Billy Butler looks to have been permanently moved to the DH spot. With Mike Moustakas ready to be called up to take over third base, that leaves Wilson Betmit without a position. Also, 27-year-old Clint Robinson (all hit, no field or run — a Billy Butler clone) is knocking the leather off the ball in Triple-A. It is time for the Royals to look at trading Butler to another team. The one team that screams for some offensive production from either the 1B or DH spot is the Tampa Bay Rays.
Jair Jurrjens: Slower Fastball, Better Results?
Jair Jurrjens is having a great year so far. Obviously, he is getting lucky as he doesn’t have the talent of his league-leading 1.51 ERA. Still, his xFIP of 3.47 is considerably better than his career xFIP of 4.22. This is largely thanks to a big drop in walks, from his career rate of 3.24 to just 1.51 this year. This success is even more striking because his fastball is 1.5 mph slower than he has previously thrown it — usually not a sign of improvement.
Carroll Rogers reported that Jurrjens, 25, picked up a new grip on his two-seam fastball from Jonny Venters, and has been using it since his April 16th start against the Los Angeles Dodgers. But the velocity is down on both his two-seam fastball, from 91.4 mph to 89.4 mph, and his four-seam fastball, from 91.4 mph to 89.7 mph. So I don’t think the change in two-seam grip is responsible for the slower fastballs. He is throwing his two-seam fastball at about the same frequency as he has previously.
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On Research and Writing: The Growing Niches of the Saber-Sphere
I’m a little bit late following up on this, but I absolutely loved this quote from Tom Tango during a recent Baseball Prospectus Q&A:
Q: I like to flatter myself that I’m an ‘early adopter’ to the sabermetric perspective on the game, even though it’s been so many years since its introduction and uptake by those like yourself. Is sabermetrics already ‘mainstream’ in your mind, or how long do you think it will be til it is? What was / will be the tipping point to #2?
Tango: Sabermetrics will always be on the leading edge. There’s no need for it to be in the mainstream. If the mainstream wants to adopt, they know where to find us. If they want to ignore us, they can. We’re there to make sure they don’t misuse numbers, that’s all.
I hope [the tipping point] never happens, actually. You look over to your left and right to make sure that whoever wants to be part of the movement has the tools and knowledge to join in. There’s no sense in looking over your shoulder to make sure everyone comes along. They aren’t in a burning building they are trying to escape. They are on the beach, and they can decide if they want to come surfing with us or not. But I don’t need them to tell me that I’m drowning people with numbers. We’re giving out surfboards, and they can decide if they want one. And then we’ll be happy to make sure they don’t drown.
I couldn’t agree more, but I realize that might seem counterintuitive for those that have followed my recent Saber-Tips series here. A large part of my writing and work here seems geared at making sabermetrics more mainstream – or at least, more widely used – but that’s not my intention. Let me explain.
Trade Targets: Third Base
The next installment in our Trade Target series involves third basemen. This is an area of opportunity for a few contenders, since there are quite a few above-average third basemen who could become available. Since the average third baseman hits just about the same as the average shortstop and the average second baseman, a trade for one of these candidates will provide a considerable positional advantage.
PLAYER: David Wright
TEAM: Mets
POSSIBLE DESTINATIONS: Rockies, Tigers
CONTRACT STATUS: $14 million in 2011, $15 million in 2012 and a $16 million 2013 option ($1 million buyout)
PROJECTED WAR: 1.5 to 2.5, depending on playing time and defense
ESPN New York’s Adam Rubin provided instant fodder for this installment when he reported that the Mets could choose to trade Wright this summer or in the offseason. Of course, he’ll have to get back on the field first. He suffered a stress fracture in his back earlier this year, and has been out since May 15th. The Mets won’t have a timetable until later this week, but he figures to be back soon enough. That allows him time to get back into a rhythm and shape up for a potential trade.
What are the real chances that the Mets trade Wright at the deadline? It’s hard to say, given the team’s financial situation and the payroll it currently holds. Do they want to keep Jose Reyes long term? Do they think they can unload part of Johan Santana’s contract? These are questions that play into the decision of whether to trade wright. If they do choose to, they’ll find a few suitors that can probably pick up the tab. The Rockies and the Tigers immediately come to mind, as they’re contending teams with virtual black holes at third base (.266 and .264 wOBAs, respectively). Wright would provide an enormous swing — especially in Colorado, where his bat would presumably play better.
On the issue of Wright’s defense, it does, on some level, reduce his WAR projection. But it’s a little curious that a guy who basically had a neutral UZR in the final four years at Shea Stadium all the sudden fell off a cliff when moving to a new ballpark. Put that way, Wright could use a change of scenery, both figuratively and literally.