At 47-43, the Pittsburgh Pirates sit just one game back in the NL Central standings. The club has a winning record after the All-Star break for the first time since Sid Bream slid and Barry Bonds bolted. And for the first time since the 1997 “Freak Show” edition of the club, whose entire payroll was less than what Albert Belle made that year, the Bucs will play pennant-altering games in the second half. The fans are taking notice: attendance is up by 3,000-4,000 per game at PNC Park, and local TV ratings have increased by a third.

But there’s one major weakness that could turn the Pirates’ resurgent season sour: the offense. Pittsburgh ranks 11th in the NL in on-base percentage, 14th in slugging and 12th in runs scored. Outside of MVP candidate Andrew McCutchen, no current starter has been comfortably above-average in the batter’s box. It’s going to be hard to keep up with the Cardinals and Brewers with such a tepid lineup.

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Adam Dunn as has had an unually huge drop in his production so far this year, especially in relation to his power. Over the rest of the season, people should expect some level of increase production because he really doesn’t that much further to drop. By looking back at players that had similar drops in power, the amount he should rebound can be estimated.

I wanted to look at how a hitter performed in the second half of the season and the next year after a huge power drop in the first half of the season. Thanks to our own Eric Seidman, I got a list of the players after 1973 that had at least 1200 PA in the 3 prior seasons, 100 PA before or on July 1st, 100 PA after July 1st and had a similar drop in production as Adam Dunn.

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“He may not look like a classic corner outfielder, but Cabrera can play, and I think Braves fans will be pleasantly surprised with what he offers.”

— Dave Cameron on Melky Cabrera, February 15, 2010

Well, Dave was probably right that Braves fans were “surprised” with Melky Cabrera’s 2010 performance, but I’m not sure the surprise was all that pleasant. Having seemingly gained forty pounds between the Yankees 2009 World Series victory and Atlanta’s 2010 Opening Day, Cabrera followed his reasonable 1.7 WAR 2009 with a combination of a .294 wOBA and awful defense all over the outfield to end up one full win below replacement level for the 2010 season. Dave wasn’t the only one: check out this fool who thought Melky Cabrera was a three-win player who would have made signing, say, Johnny Damon pointless for the Braves.

So when Melky signed with the Kansas City Royals this past off-season, there was very little excitement, to say the least. With a few exceptions, the signing was panned. Given that it came in close proximity to the fulfillment of The Jeff Francoeur Prophecy and that it was for only $1.25 million, it didn’t get all that much attention. However, while the pitching has been awful, the Royals’ offense has been right in the middle of the pack so far, and Melky’s career-high .349 wOBA and 3.0 WAR have been a big part of that. What does this mean for his near future?

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K% and BB% for pitchers have been added to the player pages and leaderboards in the “Advanced” sections.

They are both calculated using Total Batters Faced. SO/TBF and BB/TBF.

#50-#46
#46-#41
#40-#36
#35-#31
#30-#26

This is the point where it got really tough to put players in particular spots. Every team in baseball would love to have every guy on the list from here on out – the warts are now much more minor or the potential is so high as to make it seem like a risk worth carrying. Even in this section, you’re looking at some of the best young talents in baseball. If you want to move a guy a few spots up or down here, I won’t begrudge you at all. These guys are all very, very good.

Rank – Player – Position – Team – Past 3 Calendar Year WAR

#25 – Ubaldo Jimenez, SP, Colorado: +16.4

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Even after last night’s drubbing, the New York Yankees own the best run differential in baseball, an impressive +112. They’re in second place.

The Detroit Tigers have limped their way to their All-Star break, allowing more runs than they’ve scored. They’re tied for first place.

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In discussing Thursday how Jose Bautista has been, without question, the best and most valuable player in the American League this year, the topic of where his first “half” ranks historically was raised. Bautista played 84 games through the break and tallied 6.6 wins above replacement. Last year, he finished with 6.9 WAR in an excellent breakout campaign. He essentially matched his production from a year ago in half of a season.

Nobody else is even close to him this season either — it would actually take the combined WAR totals of Adrian Gonzalez and Jay Bruce, an MVP candidate and an All-Star, to match his singular productivity. But where does his 6.6 WAR total through the first half of the season rank?

According to our splits data and the yeoman work of David Appelman, Bautista’s 6.6 WAR is the second-highest total since the 1974 season. That was the first year in the sample given the full availability of detailed event information on a game-by-game basis. Babe Ruth produced insane totals in 1920 (14.1), 1921 (14.4), 1923 (15.4) and 1927 (13.2) but we don’t have the capability of determining his totals through the same period.

In any event, here are the top four WAR totals through July 10 in a given year from 1974-2011:

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Professional baseball players come from an interesting array of backgrounds, and with some notable exceptions their stories remain a mystery to most fans. That is especially true down on the farm, which is littered with Stromsmoes.

A 27-year-old utility man currently playing with the Double-A Richmond Flying Squirrels, Skyler Emerson Stromsmoe is a long shot to make it to The Show, but his story reads like it came straight out of a sitcom.

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Tonight’s games officially mark the beginning of the second half of the 2011 baseball season. While the first half provided fans with some great stories — such as Derek Jeter’s quest for 3,000 hits, Jose Bautista hitting like Barry Bonds or the Pittsburgh Pirates march back to respectability — the second half of the season should provide closure to certain stories, while extending the narratives of others. With the second half of the season starting tonight, here — in no particular order — are some of the major stories to follow.

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The Marlins have the worst attendance in baseball. In fact, for the sixth straight year, the Florida Marlins have had the worst-attended home games in the National League. That’s an indignity they share with the last team that Jeffrey Loria owned, the Montreal Expos, who were last in the league in attendance for seven straight years from 1998-2004. (Loria sold the Expos and bought the Marlins in 2002.) The Marlins’ home attendance is so bad that the team recently conceded that they have no hopes of filling their stadium at any point for the rest of the year: they’ve closed the upper deck of Sun Life Stadium, for reasons of cosmetics and pride — it will provide “a better ambience,” said a team spokesman. But the real reason is that they don’t want to have to pay security personnel and support staff to cover a part of the stadium that absolutely no one buys tickets for.

In fact, the upper deck had already been closed on weeknights, and was only held open on Fridays and Saturdays, which the club is finally putting a stop to. Instead, the team will just automatically upgrade their upper deck season ticket holders to lower deck seats, and nuts to anyone who wants nosebleeds.
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