If the Mariners have gotten a lot of ink this season, it’s for good reason. After finishing with the worst record in the AL, and the second worst record in the majors, last season, they’ve surprised some people by hovering around .500 for most of the season. Since the AL West lacks a standout team, they’ve also hung around the division lead. As long as their pitching keeps rolling the way it has in the first half of the season they might never find themselves out of the race.

It’s pretty clear to anyone, even an NL fan who doesn’t delve much into the junior circuit, that the Mariners’ offense has held the club back. This has been the case for the past three seasons, during which the Mariners have been the worst hitting team in baseball to the tune of roughly four wins. But with their pitching staff they don’t even need a good offense to excel in the AL West. All they need is a mediocre one. The team with the best pitching in the league serves as an example.

Read the rest of this entry »

Quite often we hear that a relief pitcher does or does not have what it takes to get the high pressure outs. Certain pitchers have “it” while others melt under the spot light. Ryan Madson could not be a successful closer because he lacked the vaunted “closer’s mentality.” I’m sure on a case by case basis you will find players who simply cannot handle the pressure; however, studies have shown that a reliever should perform to his talent level regardless of the leverage. After all, they are just roles not skill-sets.

As a fan of the Rays, I have watched Kyle Farnsworth transform from a guy who also lacks the closer’s mentality in to a true relief ace pitching in high leverage situations. Farnsworth is not the only middle reliever to graduate to the high life with success. Including Farnsworth, I found five relief pitchers who moved from the mid-to-low level situations up to a higher level. All five pitched at least 50 innings last season with a pLI less than 1.0. In 2011, they have tossed 30 or more innings with a leverage index of 1.3 or higher (basically set-up man or more). Here is the list…

Read the rest of this entry »

Reds 9, Cardinals 8

Moving the Needle: Jon Jay homers to tie the score at eight, +.443 WPA. This is easily the best WPA graph of the night, and it certainly indicates an enjoyable watch for those who enjoy slugfests. The Reds jumped out to a 5-0 lead in the first before they recorded an out, which is why the chart dipped so precipitously. They then made it 8-0 in the fifth. In the sixth and seventh the Cardinals mounted their comeback, getting two in the sixth and then a huge five-run seventh. The tying run came in the bottom of the ninth, a leadoff shot by Jay. That sent the game deep into extra innings, and it ended only when the Ramon Hernandez doubled home a run in the 13th.

Notables

Jay Bruce: 2 for 5, 1 HR, 1 2B, 1 BB. His homer in the first made it 5-0. It was his first hit since Saturday.

Daniel Descalso: 4 for 6, 1 2B. He was an unexpected contributor in this one, driving in two and scoring a pair himself.

Also in this issue: Tigers 5, Angels 4 | Braves 9, Rockies 1 | Red Sox 6, Blue Jays 3 | Marlins 7, Phillies 6 | Royals 4, White Sox 1 | Mets 5, Dodgers 3 | Indians 5, Yankees 3 | Brewers 3, Diamondbacks 1 | Rays 12, Twins 5 | Nationals 5, Cubs 4 | A’s 2, Mariners 0 | Astros 8, Pirates 2 | Rangers 13, Orioles 5 | Giants 6, Padres 5

Read the rest of this entry »

The San Francisco Giants won the World Series last season in large part due to a fantastic pitching staff. However, the offense provided timely hitting down the stretch of the regular season and in the playoffs thanks to some key acquisitions made before, or during, the season. Oddly enough, three of the key players on their championship squad were picked up off of the scrapheap. Each member of the trio was available to virtually every team either through free agency, outright release, or waivers, yet all three wound up in San Francisco, and boy did they pay dividends.

Aubrey Huff was acquired at the start of the season, after having put together an abysmal 2009 campaign. He produced 1.8 wins below replacement level that year as part of an erratic prime. Pat Burrell joined the team in June after being released by the Rays. Suffice to say, he came nowhere near living up to expectations after signing a two-year deal to DH for the reigning AL champs. Cody Ross was acquired off of waivers towards the end of August, costing only his remaining $1 million in salary.

These three players illustrated the inherent value in scouring different areas of the talent spectrum. Not every move needs to be substantial to make a difference, and sometimes improving in a few smaller areas can reap the same reward.

Read the rest of this entry »

Consider Alex Remington’s excellent pieces on Kim Ng and Justine Siegal and Marisa Ingemi and Kate Sargeant my preamble.

On April 2, 1931, a 17-year-old girl struck out two of the greatest hitters in baseball history. Jackie Mitchell struck out Babe Ruth and Lou Gehrig swinging and then walked Tony Lazzeri. Shortly thereafter, baseball’s then-commissioner and all-around inflexible gentleman, Kenesaw Landis, disallowed Mitchell’s contract, ending her tenure with the Double-A Chattanooga Lookouts.

By all accounts, Mitchell threw one pitch throughout her career — a “dropball” or sinker, reportedly taught to her by Hall-of-Famer Dazzy Vance. Despite her incredibly young age, she located the pitch effectively and worked as a middle-reliever during her career (which included chiefly independent league and barnstorming appearances following her departure from MiLB).

Babe Ruth, physiologist extraordinaire, remarked after the game:

I don’t know what’s going to happen if they begin to let women in baseball. Of course, they will never make good. Why? Because they are too delicate. It would kill them to play ball every day.

Read the rest of this entry »

Franklin Gutierrez earned something of a reputation as a saber darling during the 2009 season. As new general manager (and saber darling himself) Jack Zduriencik made Gutierrez the centerpiece of his first trade and the Mariners’ defense-first strategy — yes, the one that inspired “6org” — people stood up and noticed Gutierrez’s tremendous prowess in center field. He earned the nickname “Death to Flying Things” and posted a whopping 6.3 fWAR in 2009, largely behind a massive +30.9 UZR.

Regardless of your thoughts on UZR, though, it was clear that Gutierrez was at the least a pretty good player in 2009. His defense was elite by the eye test, and his bat wasn’t empty either. Gutierrez posted a .283/.339/.425 line in his first year as a Mariner, a good line made even better by how difficult it can be to hit as a right-handed batter in Safeco Field. It has been all downhill from there, however, as Gutierrez only managed an 87 wRC+ in 2010. 2011 was derailed early by a gastrointestinal bug and Gutierrez hasn’t been able to get back on track since his mid-May return: his wRC+ through his first 143 plate appearances is a miniscule 20.

Read the rest of this entry »

In light of Jason Bay’s recent hot streak — he’s hitting .307/.374/.466 over the last month — and two homerun game last night, some fans are beginning to wonder if the pre-Mets version of Jason Bay is finally beginning to show up. After all, Bay had posted above a .385 wOBA in four of the five seasons prior to signing with the Mets; his bat can’t disappear overnight, can it? Considering that Bay has now played 155 games with the Mets, take a look at how his line compares with the average for the rest of his career:

When you look at his numbers in this light, his problem becomes immediately obvious: his power has completely evaporated. He’s still walking at a similar rate (10-11%), striking out at a similar rate (25%), hitting around 90 singles per 600 PA, making contact with a similar number of pitches (75%), and having balls fall in for hits at around his career average rate (.320 BABIP). Literally the only difference between the Old Bay (mmm!) and New Bay is his utter lack of power: his homerun total has plummeted, dragging his batting average down, and he’s also hitting fewer doubles. While Bay used to be good for 30+ homerun per season, the Mets have only gotten a total of 43 extra base hits out of him so far.

This conclusion leads me to two important questions: how much is Citi Field to blame for Bay’s loss of power, and is Bay’s recent surge a sign of good things to come?

Read the rest of this entry »

There is an East Coast bias in the standings this year, and it’s affecting the trade market. There are four teams in baseball with 50 or more wins, and they’re all from their respective East divisions. The Yankees, Red Sox, Phillies, and Braves appear as dominant as their records indicate. Each either holds a division lead or a decent-sized edge in the Wild Card standings. That could complicate matters when it comes to meting out the buys and sellers later this month. If the Wild Card is unattainable, we could see fewer teams acting the part of contenders.

Another issue plays into the slow market this year: there are only 10 teams that are four or more games under .500, and only eight teams haven’t yet reached 40 wins. That doesn’t make all those close-to-.500 teams buyers, but it will certainly make them less reluctant to trade significant players.

Read the rest of this entry »

Rangers 4, Orioles 2

Moving the Needle: Josh Hamilton drives home one, and gets help bringing home another, +.403 WPA. Down 2-1 in the seventh, Hamilton came up with runners on the corners and two out. He smacked one into left to bring home the runner from third. The trail runner slid into third, but Mark Reynolds couldn’t hold onto Nolan Reimold’s throw, and it rolled all the way to the wall in foul territory beyond third. That allowed the second run to score, which gave the Rangers the go-ahead run.

Notables

Matt Wieters: 3 for 4, 1 HR. He and J.J. Hardy brought home the only Orioles runs with solo shots. Hardy’s led off the game.

Nelson Cruz: 2 for 4. His RBI put the Rangers on the board for the first time in the sixth.

Also in this issue: Angels 1, Tigers 0 | Braves 5, Rockies 3 | Red Sox 3, Blue Jays 2 | Phillies 14, Marlins 2 | Royals 5, White Sox 3 | Mets 6, Dodgers 0 | Yankees 9, Indians 2 | Diamondbacks 7, Brewers 3 | Twins 3, Rays 2 | Nationals 3, Cubs 2 | Mariners 4, A’s 2 | Pirates 5, Astros 1 | Cardinals 8, Reds 1 | Padres 5, Giants 3

Read the rest of this entry »