Over at The Book Blog, Mitchel Lichtman commented that Astros pitcher Mark Melancon, should not have thrown an inside fastball on a 2-2 count with two outs in the bottom of the ninth to the Diamondbacks’ Paul Goldschmidt. Instead the pitcher should be looking to throw a ball on the outside part of the plate. I decided to take a look at the location and results of similar pitches and the effect on the Win Probability Added (WPA) of the game.
Jacoby Ellsbury is having a terrific year, and has been one of the best all-around players in baseball this year. He’s been one of the main reasons the Red Sox have rebounded from a slow start, and is rightfully getting attention as a legitimate MVP candidate. He should absolutely be part of that discussion.
Over in the National League, though, Shane Victorino is performing at the same level and, at least by my perception, is getting roundly ignored. This should not be. Let’s put them side by side, shall we?
Ellsbury: .314/.369/.508, .387 wOBA, 142 wRC+, +11.2 UZR, +6.2 WAR
Victorino: .313/.390/.536, .406 wOBA, 157 wRC+, +6.5 UZR, +5.7 WAR
The saber prescription for the bullpen seems clear: identify your best relievers based on their component skills and use them in the right matchups according to their handedness and arsenal. Ignore the inning and instead use your best pitcher in the highest leverage moment. Basically, have a relief ace who pitches in the most important moment in the game — and then find role players to fill in the blanks.
There’s some agreement that this would be an improvement over the current set-up man/closer plan. There might never have been a ‘pen that was truly run this way.
Well, until now. Check out Chicago’s South Side.
Is Ozzie Guillen running a saber pen right now?
While certainly difficult to look at, white socks remain effective as ever.
Featured Game
Cleveland (6) at Chicago Americans (2) | 20:10 ET
• The White Sox currently have a winning percentage of exactly .500.
• The last time they were at .500 wasn’t so long ago — July 29th.
• After which they immediately proceeded to go 0-6… and then 8-2 right after that.
• The last time they were above .500 is longer ago, however — April 15th, when they owned a 7-6 record.
• Last note: Ubaldo Jimenez with Cleveland: 2 GS, 13.0 IP, 23.2% K, 7.1% BB, 48.7% GB, 3.12 SIERA, 3.13 xFIP, 79 xFIP-.
Audio Feed: White Sox Television. (Unless Hawk Harrelson makes you physically ill, that is — in which case, try Cleveland Radio probably.)
Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.6.
The following Game Scores include the new and improved playoff-odds adjustment, which you can learn about in your brain by clicking here.
It’s about time Jim Thome finally got the recognition he deserved. Though his chase toward history wasn’t as publicized as Derek Jeter’s, Thome’s relatively quiet run to 600 career home runs seems fitting, in retrospect. Thome — regarded as one of the nicest guys in the game — never seemed to care whether the baseball world was paying attention; he just continued to destroy baseballs. Now that Thome has reached the elite 600 club, thousands of words will be spilled about whether he deserves to be in the Hall of Fame. While this milestone generally guaranteed ticket to Cooperstown, the specter of performance enhancing drugs has altered the way a generation of power hitters have been perceived. Based on the stats, Thome deserves to get the call. Unfortunately for him, it might not be on the first ballot.
Moving the Needle: Freddie Freeman walks off with a two-RBI single, +.733 WPA. There is nothing quite like the multi-run come-from-behind victory in the bottom of the ninth. The Braves got that last night, as they entered the frame down two. A single, walk, and sac set them up for the tie, but Martin Prado’s single only scored one. A walk and a strikeout brought Freeman to the plate, and he grounded one up the middle to bring home the two winning runs.
Notables
Madison Bumgarner: 7 IP, 8 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K. It seems as though his bullpen has failed him after quite a few solid starts this year. Brian Wilson ended up blowing the save.
Tim Hudson: 8 IP, 5 H, 4 R, 1 BB, 2 K. He got 15 ground balls, which is pretty standard. But he also allowed 11 balls in the air, which is not.
Also in this issue: Rangers 8, Angels 4 | Twins 9, Tigers 6 | Rockies 7, Marlins 4 | Yankees 7, Royals 4 | Cubs 4, Astros 3 | Orioles 6, A’s 2 | Brewers 3, Dodgers 0 | Mariners 6, Blue Jays 5 | Pirates 6, Cardinals 2 | Mets 5, Padres 4
Following in the footsteps of Brandon Allen and Brandon Belt, it is time to free another minor league first baseman with outstanding numbers. Although he does not have the prospect pedigree of Belt – or even Allen for that matter- Russ Canzler has quietly been one of the most productive minor-league hitters over the past two seasons without a big league at-bat to his credit. In fact, Canzler, who is younger than Allen, has hit .280/.350/.470 in over 2,400 minor-league plate appearances spanning eight seasons.
Last season, Canzler really broke out at the Double-A level as a member of the Chicago Cubs organization. In 2010, he bashed Southern League pitching to the tune of .287/.372/.556 with 53 extra-base hits in slightly more than 400 plate appearances. He left the Cubs as a free agent this offseason and found a job with the Tampa Bay Rays.
Yonder Alonso helps Tony Campana ascend the NERD leaderboards.
Departing slightly from previous iterations of this column, in this week’s edition of Leaderboards of Pleasure we make sure to cast a gaze at the complete laggardboards, as well, for each of our totally proprietary and widely beloved stats.
Doing so, we learn that:
• Your irrational distaste for Jeff Mathis is also probably a rational distaste for Jeff Mathis.
• The Phillies have two players (Ryan Howard, Raul Ibanez) benefiting considerably from two other players (Chase Utley, Shane Victorino).
• Adam Dunn, while generally hilarious, might consider taking a break-ski.
• The author’s irrational taste for the Endy Chavez continues to be a rational taste for the Endy Chavez.
• Having just crossed the 100-plate appearance threshold, Tony Campana appears to be among the league’s most entertaining players so far. Is he too scrappy?
1. Team NERD Leaderboard
2. Underrated Player Leaderboard
3. Least Underrated Players
4. Player NERD Leaderboard
5. Player NERD Laggardboard
6. Pitcher NERD Leaderboard
7. Pitcher NERD Laggardboard