It’s amazing how one poor year can change the way a franchise operates. Prior to 2009 the Padres actually maintained a reasonable payroll, usually in the middle third of the league. In 2008 they actually raised it to over $70 million for the first time, after division titles in 2005 and 2006, and the Game 163 loss to the Rockies in 2007. But when the Padres finished 63-99 in 2008 ownership slashed payroll by $30 million, and then cut another $6 million in 2010. This year they added a bit, but still come in under the $50 million mark. That’s about to change, though.

Yesterday Padres CEO Jeff Moorad spoke to the media about his plans for the future. The report, as written by San Diego Union-Tribune scribe Bill Center, contains plenty of nuggets, but what stands out is Moorad’s stance on the Padres’ future payroll. Next year it “will start with a five,” and will increase to $70 million by 2016. Given the Padres current commitments, it could take a considerable off-season effort to get payroll to the $50 million level.

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Welcome to the NERD Lab.

NERD Lab!
Today, instead of reviewing one game, we’re going to spend some time in the NERD Lab. “Fun!” is the appropriate response to that.

As I’ve mentioned in a previous edition of One Night Only — or, in the comments section of a previous edition, at least — one thing that’s maybe less effective with the present iteration of NERD is that the playoff-odd adjustments are applied directly to Team NERD and not to the overall Game Scores. This isn’t really representative of what we’re trying to assess, I don’t think, because the playoff adjustment is an expression of context, and how that context might make a game more or less interesting. Meanwhile, the Team NERD scores are designed to be a measure of a team’s pure watchability.

Accordingly, I’ve submitted two versions of today’s games below: one with the playoff-odd adjustment in the Team NERD (as per usual) and one with a playoff-odds adjustment applied after the fact, to the Game Score directly.

The calculation for the playoff adjustment is both (a) boring and (b) assuredly more difficult than it needs to be.

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Angels 6, Yankees 4

Moving the Needle: Bobby Abreu homers to break the tie in the ninth, +.422 WPA. Last night Abreu accounted for 33% of his season’s home run total. He twice punished the Yanks with the long ball, the first to tie the game at one, and the second to put the Angels ahead against Mariano Rivera. That’s two straight blown games for Rivera.

Notables

Derek Jeter: 1 for 4, 1 BB. He hit a two-RBI, game-tying single in the seventh, and then walked in the ninth.

Jeff Mathis: 1 for 2, 1 2B. He had two RBI with the double

Also in this issue: White Sox 4, Orioles 3 | Diamondbacks 11, Astros 9 | Indians 3, Tigers 2 | Nationals 3, Cubs 1 | Red Sox 4, Twins 3 | Rockies 3, Reds 2 | Braves 4, Marlins 3 | Rays 4, Royals 0 | Phillies 2, Dodgers 1 | Rangers 7, Mariners 6 | Mets 5, Padres 4 | A’s 4, Blue Jays 1 | Brewers 5, Cardinals 3 | Giants 6, Pirates 0

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Low strikeout and ground-ball rates — not to mention a propensity to give up the long ball — spells disaster for most pitchers. But Josh Tomlin isn‘t most pitchers. The Indians’ right-hander succeeds despite those characteristics, in large part because no one does a better job limiting walks. Tomlin, who is 11-5 with a 4.08 ERA this season, has a major-league best 1.16 BB/9 and recently went 20 consecutive games in which he walked one batter or fewer.

Whether he can continue his current success is debatable — his .249 BABiP probably isn’t sustainable — but that’s OK with the 26-year-old former 19th-round pick. Tomlin is used to people telling him he isn’t good enough to pitch at this level. And he enjoys proving them wrong.

——

David Laurila: Is pitching fun?

Josh Tomlin: Yes, it’s very fun. It’s almost like a chess game, especially when you’re out there with stuff like I have. I can’t just power through guys, or anything like that. I have to mix and match, and try to keep hitters off balance.

I don’t have any one pitch that’s outstanding, but I feel that I have five quality pitches that I can throw for strikes. I have two variations of a fastball — a four-seam and a two-seam — a cutter, a changeup and a curveball.

I mainly throw a lot of cutters and fastballs. Over the course of a game, if you count the cutter as a third variation of my fastball, I’ll typically throw more than 80 percent fastballs.

DL: Is that a high percentage for someone who doesn’t throw especially hard?

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Episode Eighty-One
In which the guest, like many other people, has a real head on his shoulders.

Headlines
Sabermetrics, Some Finer Points Of — Discussed!
Philadelphia, Its Baseball Team — Considered!
Philadelphia, Its Geography — Learned About!

Featuring
Eric Augenbraun, NotGraphs and The Good Phight

Finally, you can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio on the flip-flop. (Approximately 65 min play time.)

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Podcast: Play in new window | Download

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Aubrey Huff will continue to bat in the middle of the batting order, says his manager. It’s no surprise, either, given the organization’s predilection for veterans. Even though it’s clear that this will be one of Huff’s off years, he’s been better recently. Has it been the colloquial ‘dead cat bounce,’ though?

First, a definition! Our own Joe Pawlikowski seemed to nudge towards a definition of the ‘dead cat bounce’ term in his writeup of Jorge Posada. Mr. Pawlikowski hinted that an unsustainable blip on the way down might be a fully BABIP-driven occurence. If a player has the same flaws in the good months and the bad months, and a large BABIP fuels the difference, it makes sense that once the BABIP subsides, the player will return to his free fall. The dead cat returns to being dead.

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Four years ago, the Rays discovered a hidden gem. It took a last-minute injury for them to even place Carlos Pena on the roster, but that turned out to be one of the most beneficial injuries in team history. In 2007 Pena broke out, hitting 46 runs and producing 51 runs above average. His 167 wRC+ ranked fourth in the majors. While he never reached that level again, he still turned in two more high quality seasons and helped lead the Rays to the AL pennant in 2008. All of that from a guy who originally didn’t even crack the 2007 roster.

This year the Rays have another breakout on their hands, and once again it comes from a player who didn’t make the team out of spring training. Casey Kotchman started the season in Durham, but he played only one game for the Rays AAA team. Manny Ramirez‘s abrupt retirement paved the way for Kotchman’s recall, and Dan Johnson’s ineffectiveness opened a spot for him in the starting lineup. He’s taken full advantage, and is currently working on his finest season as a major leaguer. But unlike Pena, it’s unclear whether Kotchman’s improvements are replicable in the future.

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The author is not a wizard, turns out.

Featured Game
Milwaukee (8) at St. Louis (7) | 20:15 ET
• Since July 12th, when I made the case that Milwaukee could improve itself most efficiently and cheaply by trading for a shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt has slashed .388/.405/.575 (.412 BABIP) in 84 plate appearances — this, after slashing .237/.255/.342 (.242 BABIP) in the 321 PAs up till that point.
• Coinicidence? Yes, obviously.
• I promise you, if I possessed the ability to alter world events, I’d use it almost exclusively for personal gain.
• Like, to get big muscles, probably.
• Not on my body, I mean — just to have around the house.

Audio Feed: Brewers Radio.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.8.

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The Boston Red Sox organization is known for flexing its financial muscle with an eye to sustainable development by signing numerous draft picks to above-slot deals each season. In fact, over the past three years the organization has handed out more draft bonus money than any other organization in baseball other than the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 2010, the Red Sox club handed out 10 contracts for more than $200,000 each.

College Picks
1st – Kolbrin Vitek, 2B
1S – Bryce Brentz, OF
1S – Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
2nd – Brandon Workman, RHP
7th – Chris Hernandez, LHP
8th – Matthew Price, RHP
11th – Lucas LeBlanc, OF (Junior College)

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