Big Spender: Boston’s 2010 Draft Class

The Boston Red Sox organization is known for flexing its financial muscle with an eye to sustainable development by signing numerous draft picks to above-slot deals each season. In fact, over the past three years the organization has handed out more draft bonus money than any other organization in baseball other than the Pittsburgh Pirates. In 2010, the Red Sox club handed out 10 contracts for more than $200,000 each.

College Picks
1st – Kolbrin Vitek, 2B
1S – Bryce Brentz, OF
1S – Anthony Ranaudo, RHP
2nd – Brandon Workman, RHP
7th – Chris Hernandez, LHP
8th – Matthew Price, RHP
11th – Lucas LeBlanc, OF (Junior College)

So far, you can look to either Brentz or Ranaudo as the top college pick from this draft. The right-hander received mixed views from scouts but he’s posted solid first-year numbers. He breezed through low-A ball with a strikeout rate of 9.78 K/9 and a FIP of 3.46 in 46.0 innings. Since moving up to high-A, Ranaudo has seen his strikeout rate drop to 6.58 K/9 with a 4.36 FIP in 63.0 innings. He’s been far more hittable with his hits allowed jumping from 6.85 to 9.29 H/9. I’d peg his ceiling, if he can stay healthy, somewhere between a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Brentz came into 2011 with less hype than his draftmate but he quickly caught the attention of Red Sox Nation with a triple-slash line of .359/.414/.647 in 170 at-bats in low-A ball. Fueled by a .403 BABIP, his numbers were due for a dive with his promotion to high-A ball, and they did just that. He’s now sitting at .243/.299/.536 (.252 BABIP) in 181 at-bats. Brentz has maintained excellent power numbers at both levels (.288 and .293 ISO rates). He has, though, seen a jump in his strikeout rate from 18.8 to 25.9 K%. The outfielder’s high-A numbers bear a closer resemblance to his disappointing 2010 debut stats, which is cause for a little concern. He may end up as a high strikeout, low average, but big-time power hitter. It is still too early to jump to conclusions.

Vitek has seen his career numbers fueled by healthy BABIPs, including .358 in 2011. Unfortunately, the prospect is currently manning third base in the minors with an ISO rate of just .094 in high-A. Unless he finds some more power – and relatively soon – Vitek is going to have to look at a position change if he’s going to be an everday guy in the Majors. As Bryan Smith concluded at FanGraphs prior to the 2010 draft: “He has been an awkward fit defensively, but with good raw speed, many teams think he will be a good fit in center field.”

Workman has given up a few more hits than we would like to see from a 22-year-old former college pitcher who has spent the entire year in low-A ball. Hernandez has shown some solid numbers but his stuff will likely relegate him to a relief or swing role at the MLB level. LeBlanc, 22, has a .256 wOBA in low-A ball. Price is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.

High School Picks
3rd – Sean Coyle, SS
4th – Garin Cecchini, SS
6th – Kendrick Perkins, OF

Cecchini is the big name from the prep class. He opened the year in extended spring training but has been on fire since the short-season club’s season got under way. He’s currently hitting .298/.398/.500 in 114 at-bats. He’s shown outstanding power (.202 ISO), as well as a solid eye at the plate: 12.8 BB%, 14.3 K%. Cecchini is virtually a lock to open 2012 in full season ball and will find himself on the Red Sox’s 2012 Top 10 prospect list.

Coyle was challenged with an assignment to full season ball in 2011 despite having just 10 pro at-bats to his credit. He’s shown signs of brilliance but he’s been inconsistent, with April and June being his worst months. He profiles as a solid MLB second baseman or utility player. Perkins’ ceiling falls in somewhere between his two fellow prep draftees. A high school athlete that excelled in a number of sports, the outfielder is the most raw in terms of baseball skills. Despite that fact, he’s posted solid numbers in Rookie Ball this season. He has a triple-slash line of .271/.374/.421 in 133 at-bats. He’s also flashed some power at times (.150 ISO). Perkins will definitely have to work to trim his strikeouts (30.1 K%).

With the signing deadline less than one week away, you can expect the Red Sox organization to be busy. The club has already handed out $100,000+ deals to two late round picks, but just two other deals – Williams Jerez (2nd) and Jordan Weems (3rd) – for more than $200,000. The organization has not spent less than $7 million on a draft class in the past three seasons.