Our review of the FanGraphs 2011 Top 10 prospect lists continues with the American League Central.

Detroit Tigers
1. Jacob Turner, RHP
2. Nick Castellanos, 3B
3. Andy Oliver, LHP
4. Daniel Fields, OF
5. Daniel Schlereth, LHP
6. Chance Ruffin, RHP
7. Wade Gaynor, 3B
8. Josue Carreno, RHP
9. Bruce Rondon, RHP
10. Dixon Machado, SS

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Earlier, we found that teams do indeed pay a premium to acquire early-round talent in the later rounds of the draft. (And I would suggest reading the first part of the study before you read this so that you are caught up on the methodology and some of the terminology). Today, we’ll look at over-slot signees selected from the supplemental to the tenth round, differences among position players and pitchers, as well as differences between high school and college players signed to over-slot deals.

While teams had to pay a fairly significant premium to acquire early-round talent in the later rounds, teams appear to have gotten solid, even good value signing players to over-slot bonuses in the supplemental round through the tenth round of the draft.

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Marlins 4, Mets 3

Moving the Needle: Justin Turner’s errant throw costs the Mets the game, -.464 WPA. The Mets held a 3-2 lead heading into the ninth inning last night, but Jason Isringhausen ran into a bit of trouble. With one out he loaded up the bases, bringing pinch-hitter Bryan Petersen to the plate. He grounded one right to Turner at second, who, seeing that John Buck had frozen in his tracks, made a quick throw to first. Why he didn’t go to second I’m not sure, because a force double play was the only way to ensure that the runner from third didn’t score. Plus, with Buck frozen it was an easy get, so they’d at least prevent another runner from reaching scoring position, even if they didn’t turn two. But throwing to first was a folly in the first place, since it ensured the tying run would score. Turner did the Marlins one better by throwing it away, allowing the go-ahead run to score as well.

Notables

Chris Capuano: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 5 K. It wasn’t the most pristine start, but it was almost good enough for a Mets win.

Omar Infante: 3 for 5, 2 HR. Yes, yes, that’s more homers in one game than he’d hit all season.

Also in this issue: Angels 5, Twins 1 | Phillies 5, Rockies 0 | Red Sox 3, Indians 2 | Reds 5, Astros 1 | Yankees 6, White Sox 0 | Cardinals 8, Brewers 7 | Tigers 6, Rangers 5 | Nationals 9, Braves 3 | Orioles 8, Royals 2 | Mariners 4, A’s 3 | Cubs 11, Pirates 6 | Blue Jays 3, Rays 1 | Dodger 1, Padres 0 | Diamondbacks 6, Giants 1

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Since it’s creation, the August 15th deadline for teams to sign drafted players has become one of the most important days on the baseball calendar. Interspersed among the headlines of which early picks have signed are the reports of players drafted in later rounds, sometimes even outside of the first ten rounds, signing six and seven-figure deals. These ‘over-slot’ signees are a bit of a mystery. Few outside of the scouting industry know much of anything about these players, and it’s difficult to judge the value of an over-slot signee relative to a team’s other draft picks. Is the 12th rounder who signed for $500,000 a better prospect than the third rounder who signed for $400,000? What type of premium do teams pay to sign players to over-slot deals? How much does it cost to sign a ‘second-round’ talent late in the draft? Can it even be done? These are the questions I sought to shed light on.

Unfortunately, reliable bonus data on players who sign late in the draft is tough to find before 2005, so our sample will be restricted to the 2005-2009 drafts. Because many of these players are just starting their major league careers or are still playing in the minors, we can’t know precisely how much value each draftee will ultimately provide, but using Erik Manning’s translation of Victor Wang’s research, we can come up with a fairly accurate approximation of each player’s value based on how they ranked on Baseball America’s Top 100 lists and in John Sickels’ team-by-team rankings.

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Ron Fairly was a better player than you probably realize. In 21 major-league seasons he hit .266/.360/.408, with 215 home runs, while spending the prime of his career in an extreme pitcher’s park, in an extreme pitcher’s era. Overshadowed by big-name teammates, he quietly helped the Dodgers to World Series titles in 1959, 1963 and 1965.

Fairly is also a good storyteller  — especially when the stories pertain to the Dodger-Giants rivalry. When Juan Marichal attacked John Roseboro with a bat, Fairly was there. Ditto when Sandy Koufax was dominating hitters, and Don Drysdale was knocking them down. What did it feel like to get drilled in the back by Bob Gibson? What hitting advice did he get from Ted Williams? What did Duke Snider say about Roy Campanella? Well, now you’ll know.

——

David Laurila: You had a productive a career that looks even better after accounting for era and park factors. Were you underrated?

Ron Fairly: “I think everybody feels that maybe they weren’t appreciated as much as they should have been for the contributions they made to ball clubs. I think it goes without saying. A lot of players feel that way.

“I think my numbers would certainly be better today. I played in an era — the 1960s — that might have been the most difficult in which to make your living, as a hitter, of any in the history of the game of baseball. I played in Dodger Stadium, which was a big ballpark where the ball didn’t carry very well. It doesn’t take many [lost] hits during the course of a season for your average to drop a little bit, and you weren’t going to have as many home runs or RBIs there.”

Laurila: Sandy Koufax put up his numbers in that same environment. While he was obviously a great pitcher, was he maybe a little overrated? Read the rest of this entry »

I love trades, transactions, and rumors. Love ’em. While the actual game of baseball is pretty cool too — you know, I’ll watch it on occasion — there’s something endlessly fascinating about discussing roster moves. The flurry of action around the trade deadline makes it one of my favorite times of the season, and it’s one of the few things fans of rebuilding teams have to look forward to each year.

There’s just something so addicting about the deadline. Following the trade deadline on Twitter is like watching the climax of a giant, twisting, real-life soap opera unfold 140 characters at a time. Rumors are buzzing everywhere, emotions are running high, analysts are making over-the-top assessments, and debates are flying nearly as fast as the rumors. It’s an adrenaline rush that doesn’t require an HDTV or special effects, just a knowledge of the narratives surrounding this year’s season. It’s the ultimate story — a real-time novel with 30 authors and millions of attentive readers.

But one of the key reasons I love this time of the year is because it stimulates so much good analysis and debate. Each trade can be debated on the merits of the return for both sides — something saberists love to do — but there are also underlying philosophical debates about proper team building and strategy. How close is close enough to justify making a run at the playoffs?  Should this team be looking to sell or buy? What should be this organization’s long-term plan? Are they working toward it? Sometimes the answer to these questions are easy; other times they can be the cause of all sorts of debate.

The Ubaldo Jimenez trade is a great example. I have conflicting emotions on this trade: while I like the total package the Rockies got back in return, I really dislike the trade from a philosophical point of view.

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With all the ballyhoo encompassing the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, it’s sometimes easy to forget that deals can still go down for another month.

Plenty of viable players clear waivers every year, and a fair number of them are dealt to bolster a team’s playoff chances or perhaps to clear some payroll off the books. One of the more notable deals was the Padres’ 1998 blunder in which the club claimed reliever Randy Myers to prevent him from getting to the Atlanta Braves. The Blue Jays gladly allowed the waiver claim to go through, and Myers’ bloated salary was absorbed by the Friars.

Let’s take a peek at a few players who could find themselves on different rosters in the next month.

Ramon Hernandez – Catcher – Cincinnati Reds

Dusty Baker loves veterans. But after all, you’re reading FanGraphs, so you already know that. However, the exact rationale behind not dealing Hernandez and promoting Devin Mesoraco was that ol’ Fistbands didn’t want to have a rookie catcher in the heat of a pennant race. Well, with the club in fourth place and seven-and-a-half games back, it’s hard to really jive with that sentiment. Hernandez doesn’t profile as a player who can play every day in the twilight of his career, but that doesn’t mean it will stop Brian Sabean from trying to pry him away down the stretch in a desperate attempt to bolster his club’s futile offense. Hernandez, whose .364 wOBA is the finest of his career, was and still is a fine sell-high candidate, and perhaps with the race slipping away, GM Walt Jocketty will still get value with the “Free Mesoraco” campaign gaining some steam.

Carl Pavano – Starting Pitcher – Minnesota Twins

The Twins have yet to indicate the Pavano is on the block, but there’s little reason he shouldn’t be. With the club seven games out and treading water in the league’s worst division, it is a bit surprising the Twins opted to stand pat rather than move toward one of the poles. Should the division lead lengthen any further, however, it’s not unreasonable to expect GM Bill Smith to start fielding calls for the suddenly-durable right hander. Pavano’s been roughed up a bit of late, but is still on pace to throw in the neighborhood of 200 innings for the third straight season. His xFIP of 4.15 also serves notice to the defensive struggles the Twins have uncharacteristically suffered from in 2011, but also helps contextualize some of the mistakes made in the club’s offseason planning (dealing Hardy, re-signing Pavano rather than trying to receive compensation picks). If the Twins eat money, it’s not completely out of the question that he could find himself in the same situation as 2009, when he moved from Cleveland to Minnesota for the stretch run.

Wandy Rodriguez – Starting Pitcher – Houston Astros

The biggest reason Rodriguez could wind up on the block is his contract, which just kicked in for the 2011 season. Rodriguez, likely the best pitcher that the average fan hasn’t heard about, has been scintillating for the Astros for the past four seasons, compiling a 3.38 ERA, 8.3 K/9, and a solid 2.9 K/BB. Those numbers landed Rodriguez a three-year extension with a 2014 option, with the big money kicking in next season at $10 million. Rodriguez would probably slip through waivers because the fourth year option is guaranteed with a trade, and Wandy would be 35 at the top of the 2014 season. Still, for a team with cash to burn and a rotation need (Yankees/Red Sox?), Rodriguez could be a viable fit that would slot in nicely in the upper-middle of just about any rotation. The Astros have almost no incentive to hold onto Rodriguez after dealing Hunter Pence and Michael Bourn, but have no reason to give him away either. If a deal gets done, it’ll only be because Ed Wade hears an offer to his liking. Whatever that means.

Without looking at the leader boards: who’s the best catcher in baseball? Criteria will vary from person to person, but generally it will involve a heavy weight on recent performance with some level of emphasis on long-term production. At this point, I’m willing to bet that the most common answer is Brian McCann. He stands far ahead of the pack this season with 19.1 wRAA, which bests No. 2 ranked Alex Avila by 7.3 runs. Still, there has to be some weight give to performances in the recent past. If we expand this leader board to include the past two calendar years, McCann does not stand atop. That honor belongs to another household name, Joe Mauer.

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What the author talks about when he talks about Daniel Hudson.

Featured Game
Arizona (8) at San Francisco (5) | 22:15 ET
• The very slingy Daniel Hudson (8) faces the very Cy Young-y Tim Lincecum (also 8).
• After last night’s contest between these same teams, either one or three games separate them in the standings.
• I don’t know, though, because I wrote these words on Monday afternoon.
• Another thing I did on Monday was to look up new Arizona first baseman Paul Goldschmidt’s line at Double-A Mobile.
• Which, allow me to share that with you post-haste: 457 PA, .306/.435/.626 (.331 BABIP), 130 wOBA+.

Watch: Both Fox Sports Arizona and Comcast SportsNet Bay Area — to decide whose voice is man-ier, Mark Grace’s or Mike Krukow’s.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.1.

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