Dodgers 2, Cardinals 1

Moving the Needle: Aaron Miles ties the game with a triple in the ninth, +.514 WPA. It appeared as though Lance Berkman‘s second inning homer would hold up, as the Cardinals held that 1-0 lead into the ninth. But their bullpen could not hold it. Miles drove in the tying run with his triple, and Rod Barajas followed with an RBI ground out to give them the lead. Javy Guerra picked up the save, though facing Corey Patterson in Matt Holliday’s stead helped plenty.

Notables

Chris Carpenter: 8 IP, 5 H, 1 R, 1 BB, 7 K. It was all going so well until he plunked the leadoff hitter in the ninth.

James Loney: 3 for 3. They were all singles, yes, but that’s still seven hits in his last two games.

Also in this issue: Mariners 3, Indians 2 | Braves 3, Cubs 0 | Orioles 4, Twins 1 | Rockies 9, Astros 5 | Tigers 5, Rays 2 | Nationals 4, Diamondbacks 1 | Rangers 4, Red Sox 0 | Phillies 10, Mets 0 | Brewers 8, Pirates 1 | Pirates 9, Brewers 2

Read the rest of this entry »

How much do we really know about Jose Tabata? The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to think he’s a valuable commodity since they locked him up with a six-year-deal. While Tabata has accumulated only 770 plate appearances at the major league level, the Pirates were comfortable enough with his performances that they decided he was part of the team’s future. Tabata’s performance in the majors has been admirable — and the deal doesn’t get that expensive until 2017 — but there are still some questions about Tabata that could make this deal worse than it looks.
Read the rest of this entry »

Say huh?

Like a good neighbor, the Leaderboards of Pleasure are there… to borrow money from you and drink all of your fermented beverages and make totally unsupportable claims.

Looking over this week’s boards, we find:

• First of all, that the author has taken the liberty of adjusting the calculation of the Underrated Player leaderboards ever so slightly — hopefully to allow the fake WAR (FANT) scale to more accurately reflect the scale of actual, real-live WAR.

• That, in so doing, Peter Bourjos leaps to the top of the list — something (i.e. leaping) he does in real life with some frequency, as well.

And:

• That, immediately upon passing the 100-plate appearance threshold, Desmond Jennings debuts at fourth overall on the Player NERD leaderboard. Drink deeply of his stat line and find yourself drunk with nerd pleasure: 122 PA, .320/.412/.592 (.389 BABIP), 13-17 SBA, 1.3 WAR.

Read the rest of this entry »

You have Player X that went 13-4 with a 2.00 ERA in 153 IP.

You have a bunch of other pitchers who pitched 216 innings and performed at various levels (see poll).

For the Cy Young voting, you would place Player X right below which pitcher?

Note: Presume the league average starting pitcher is a .500 pitcher, with a 4.00 ERA.

Last week’s Power Rankings stagnation did not hold, as there was movement up and down the Rankings this week. The two biggest movers, in terms of percentage points, were the two New York teams — with the Yankees moving up and the Mets moving down. For the better part of the first 16 weeks of the Rankings, the Mets slotted in a comfortable 100 points below the Yankees, but with this past week’s separation, the gap between the two teams is now 153. Still, while the Mets have endured second-rate status in New York for the better part of the past decade, they haven’t fared all that poorly in Sandy Alderson’s first year in charge. While the pitching and defense have left much to be desired, the Metropolitans wRC+ of 104 has been sixth-best in the game. Still, Alderson will face some tough decisions this offseason, as he must both resign Jose Reyes and find some quality pitching, and may not have the budget for both. One possible solution could be trading one of their corner guys for pitching, but those types of deals are becoming harder and harder to pull off. Either way, with the trial against the Mets owners not set to begin until March 5th, there is a decent chance that Alderson will have the entire hot stove season to focus on making the Mets better on the field. If he can continue to make things better, it might not be long before the playoffs return to Flushing.

(As always click here to check out the methodology behind the Power Rankings.)
Read the rest of this entry »

Brent Lillibridge hit his 11th home run of the season during the White Sox 10-0 old-fashioned whoopin’ of the Rangers yesterday. It was just another highlight in a shocking power outburst for the utility infielder, who looked like a marginal major leaguer coming into the season. Lillibridge started off the season hot, cooled down in June and July, and is having his best month yet so far in August. Lillibridge is only 27 — not terribly young, but not old, either. Could this be another lasting power surge (.245 ISO with a .370 wOBA) out of nowhere in the vein of Ben Zobrist or Jose Bautista?

Read the rest of this entry »

From Clayton Kershaw to Chad Billingsley to Rubby de la Rosa (a recent victim of Tommy John surgery), the Los Angeles Dodgers have displayed a knack for developing top-flight pitching talent. The newest hurler to emerge is Nate Eovaldi, but he’s just the tip of the iceberg in what should be LA’s strong wave of young, cost-controllable talent. Other names to tuck away for future reference include Allen Webster, Zach Lee, Garrett Gould — and recent first-round pick, Chris Reed.

Eovaldi is probably the least-heralded prospect of the group. A former 11th-round selection in 2008 out of high school in Texas, he would have gone much higher if he hadn’t been slowed by Tommy John surgery in his junior year. He received an over-slot deal and has not had any major issues with his elbow in pro ball. Breaking out in 2011 at double-A, Eovaldi did a nice job of keeping runners off base (6.64 H/9) and struck out his fair share of batters (8.65 K/9). On the downside, the 21-year-old is a fly-ball pitcher and has struggled with his control (4.02 BB/9). Eovaldi is probably in the majors a little early, but his mid-90s fastball has a lot of promise; he just needs to learn to better-control his secondary pitches and learn the value of changing speeds.

Read the rest of this entry »

Tampa Bay’s Desmond Jennings will use his sunbeam superpower to unsettle Justin Verlander.

Featured Game
Detroit (2) at Tampa Bay (7) | 19:10 ET
• Justin Verlander, first among AL pitchers in SIERA (2.75) and WAR (6.2), pitches tonight for a Detroit team that improved its playoff odds either to 69.1% or 79.2% last night, depending on which methodology you prefer.
• Owing to how the center-field camera at Tropicana Field is one of the league’s better ones, tonight represents an opportunity to get all familiar-like with Verlander’s stuff.
• Apropos said stuff, here’s what Verlander throws according to Pitch F/x: fastball (45.6%), curveball (18.8%), changeup (18.2%), slider (8.6%), two-seamer (8.8%).
• Per pitch-type runs (which buckets four- and two-seam fastballs together), literally all those pitches are worth more than a run per 100 thrown.
• Literally literally. Not fake literally.

MLB.TV Audio Feed: Tampa Bay Television.

Also Playing
Here’s the complete schedule for all of today’s games, with our very proprietary watchability (NERD) scores for each one. Pitching probables and game times aggregated from MLB.com and RotoWire. The average NERD Game Score for today is 5.3.

Read the rest of this entry »

After a hiatus of over four years, Jerome Williams is back in the majors.  After coming up with the Giants as a 21-year-old in 2003, he’s bounced around to the Cubs, Nationals, Twins, Dodgers, and Athletics organizations, putting up unspectacular numbers.  He also had a 2010 stint in Taiwan. The Angels brought him back to the U.S. before this season, and he had some success at Triple-A Salt Lake, posting a 4:1 K/BB ratio in 73 2/3 innings. He got the call to the major leagues last week, making a three-batter relief appearance on August 17th before being slotted into the rotation for a Sunday start against the Orioles.  He impressed, allowing one run in seven innings while striking out six and walking nobody.  Since his last appearance in the major leagues, he’s made some adjustments to his pitching style: first, he’s throwing harder.  As Williams noted in a interesting post game interview with The Orange County Register’s Sam Miller, he used to conserve his fastball velocity but now prefers to go right after hitters.  Consider the velocities for his different pitch types:

-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+
| Pitch                  | 2007                    | 2011                    |
-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+
|Two-Seam Fastball       | 89.4                    | 91.5                    |
|Four-Seam Fastball      | 88.7                    | 91.5                    |
|Slider/Cutter           | 84.6                    | 87.9                    |
|Changeup                | 82.2                    | 83.5                    |
|Curveball               | 78.0                    | 79.1                    |
-------------------------+-------------------------+-------------------------+

It’s important to note that we have extremely little PITCHf/x data on Williams from before his 2011 return – in fact, there’s just one 2007 start (that was the first year with any regular season f/x data) at which we can look pitch by pitch, so, basically, we’re just comparing one 2007 start to one 2011 start.  Not my favorite thing to do, but it’s necessary when the samples are so small. 

Essentially, he’s throwing his fastballs ~2 mph faster, his change and curve ~1 mph faster, and his slider more than 3 mph faster. According to his interview with Miller, he started tightening up his slider in 2009 and he nows thinks of it as a cutter.
Read the rest of this entry »