Pirates Extend Tabata
How much do we really know about Jose Tabata? The Pittsburgh Pirates seem to think he’s a valuable commodity since they locked him up with a six-year-deal. While Tabata has accumulated only 770 plate appearances at the major league level, the Pirates were comfortable enough with his performances that they decided he was part of the team’s future. Tabata’s performance in the majors has been admirable — and the deal doesn’t get that expensive until 2017 — but there are still some questions about Tabata that could make this deal worse than it looks.
Let’s start with the good. Tabata is experiencing somewhat of a breakout season in 2011. After posting solid numbers in his rookie season — albeit with little power for a corner outfielder — Tabata has been able to increase his walk rate this season while keeping many of his other peripherals in line. While he may struggle to ever post double-digit home runs, his .363 on-base percentage currently rates second on the team (behind Andrew McCutchen). Still, his unsightly .385 slugging percentage definitely limits his upside.
Tabata is far from an elite player, and the Pirates were smart enough to recognize this fact when putting the deal together. As we’ve explained on FanGraphs many times before — a win is worth about $5 million — a figure Tabata won’t make until at least 2017. In his rookie season, Tabata was worth 2.1 WAR. He’s on pace to match that number this season as well, so he’s already proven to be quite a nice pickup for the Pirates. If the 23-year-old can improve on his performances going forward, the Pirates will have a complete steal on their hands here.
There in lies the rub. There are some questions about whether Tabata is truly 23 years old. While he’s always been regarded as a top prospect, that ranking has always come with a caveat about his age. If Tabata is/was a few years older than we have been led to believe, his performances don’t warrant the type of prospect hype he’s been given. Let’s face it, a 25-year-old outfielder with a poor history of hitting for power in the minors isn’t exactly the type of player you want your team signing for six additional seasons.
If Tabata is indeed 23 years old — and there’s potentially still some projection left in his bat — the deal has the potential to really benefit the Pirates. Even if he doesn’t improve, his current performance should be enough to outperform the deal over the next couple of seasons. In this scenario, the deal would take Tabata right up to his peak seasons — where he would have another shot at securing a big contract. If Tabata is two to three years older than he says (something we may never actually find out), the deal looks less rosy. There’s definitely a risk the Pirates just locked up an outfielder in his mid-twenties that has shown zero power over his career. Those types of players don’t tend to improve much.
Either way, Tabata should come at a bargain for the Pirates over the next couple of seasons. Even when the player team options start to kick in, there’s a decent chance Tabata will still be considered a steal for the Pirates. While it seems like the Pirates took a risk committing to a player with some question marks, this is not the type of deal that will cripple the franchise if Tabata completely falters over the next couple of seasons. There’s a chance Tabata improves and this deal looks like a total steal for the Pirates. But it’s more than likely Tabata has already reached his ceiling. That’s not necessarily a bad thing given the terms of the contract, but it’s not a good one either.
Chris is a blogger for CBSSports.com. He has also contributed to Sports on Earth, the 2013 Hard Ball Times Baseball Annual, ESPN, FanGraphs and RotoGraphs. He tries to be funny on twitter @Chris_Cwik.
Tabata is probably going to compare to Melky career wisem, a five tool player in the sense that he is at least average in all five categories. He may very well end up solidly above average in things like contact and defense, and this deal is basically betting that he is a league average 4th OF so I like it.
It’s being awfully kind to Melky to say that he has any tools at all.
Maybe but Melky has a .303/.335/.472 with 16HR and 16SB so if he ends the season as a 20/20 CF with a .300 average it is a little unkind to say he has no tools.
Nothing in this story, or the linked story, indicated why there are doubts as to Tabata’s age. What’s the story? Where are these questions coming from?
It’s called Google. Probably just as fast as typing your comment.
Surely “fill in the blanks with Google Search” is not a good philosophy of writing.
http://tinyurl.com/3gnev75
the options aren’t player options, they’re club options. awfully speculative article
Yeah this “analysis” makes about no sense. There is no evidence of any age issue, yet the entire story is based on speculation. The author says he’s already a 2 WAR player, yet somehow that isn’t worth $4 million a year in 3 years? Even if he’s 25, he’ll hit his peak production in a few years and cost less than half of his value. All of the pricey options are team controlled so there is almost zero risk. For Tabata to perform to his $15 million contract, he’ll need to put up 3 WAR in 5 years, how can that not be a great deal for the Bucs?
I wouldn’t say there is evidence, but there was talk about it, and from the front office.
http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/pirates/s_666005.html
There are other stories, just google it.
What was the deal/contract terms?
if he’s not going to make $5M until 2017, it’s a steal.
Great. Yet more unfounded speculation on Tabata’s age.
Can anyone name a Venezuelan player that lied about his age? I can’t think of a single one. Guys like Tejada, Beltre, Furcal, Guzman, Ortiz, Soriano and Colon are all Dominican. So is Esmailyn Gonzalez. El Duque is Cuban. From my understanding, Venezuela has much stricter record keeping than the Dominican or Cuba, so it’s much harder to commit this type of age fraud.
There isn’t a shred of evidence to suggest that Tabata is anything other than his stated age, yet the rumor persists because he “looks older”. It’s ridiculous. The Hardball Times article you linked also says there are “questions” without actually citing any proof. All they have is a mealy mouthed quote from Neil Huntington that contradicts itself. He said:
“All of the documentation he has used to obtain his visa from the U.S. government and his passport from the Venezuelan government indicates his reported age is accurate. Apart from unfounded speculation, there is nothing to indicate his age any different than reported. My point is that while we have reason to doubt his reported age, it is a non-issue to us.”
The only part that would give pause is the last sentence where he says “we have reason to doubt” Tabata’s age, but that it also is a “non-issue”. How on earth are these two ideas compatible? If Tabata’s a few years older, it’s a very big issue for the Pirates. I think, given the overall tone of the rest of his comments, the “we have reason to doubt” comment was Huntington’s way of acknowledging that other people doubt Tabata’s age, but the Pirates don’t. So we’re back at square one, namely that people are engaging in unfounded speculation and have no proof that Tabata is older than he says he is.
Meanwhile, the Yankees investigated his age and were satisfied enough to sign him as a 16 year old prospect. The Pirates investigated his age and were satisfied enough to trade for him and then sign him to a six year extension. The US government is satisfied that his age is accurate and granted him a work Visa.
next up: the pittsburgh pirates verify obama’s long-form birth certificate
There was an article on this the 2010 THT annual. The Venezuelan government, while more rigorous than Latin America, is also not BFF’s with the US. So, if the US requests something and Venezuela says “F-Off”, then “F-Off” is the answer the US is left with. The US can’t go down there and investiagte the situation itself, like it does with Latin America.
In other words, Venezuelan players could lie about their age and the US would not be able to investigate it.
One could say that Venezuelan and Latin American situations are different and that Venezuelan players should be given the benefit of the doubt due to the different economic and political structures of the country. That would be fair.
one minor point about his age–this is his age 22 (or 24 or 30 or whatever) season, because his bday is in august, correct?
Here’s some comments by Neal Huntington on the age issue:
http://www.bucsdugout.com/2010/2/7/1300081/neal-huntington-clarifies-comments
Here are the year-by-year terms of the deal:
http://bucsbits.mlblogs.com/2011/08/21/figures-for-jose-tabatas-contract-extension/
Helluva a deal for the Pirates imo
Sorry, didn’t see Gorillagogo’s comment on the age thing until after I posted.
This is the worst article I’ve seen on fangraphs in over one month.
Please don’t ruin the quality of your website with this filth.
Allow me to briefly defend myself here. I agree with most of you that the issue of Tabata’s age is somewhat unfair. At the same time, the issue always seems to pop up with Tabata and I felt it needed to be mentioned within the article. For what it’s worth, some very trusted analysts have some questions about whether Tabata is as old as he says he is. I don’t mean to imply that Tabata is a liar, just that I feel it is a legitimate issue.
Either way, I acknowledged that it’s a good deal for the Pirates. It just looks better if Tabata is actually 23.
I know it’s easy to get stuck on one issue that pisses you off (in this case, the questions about Tabata’s age), but I ask that you read the entire piece and understand that I’m just trying to present the entire argument here. I felt ignoring the issue of his age would have been a mistake; even if there’s nothing to be concerned about.
I don’t really follow your logic then. If you agree that the age speculation is unfair, why did you present it in such a way that the reader thinks it’s a legitimate issue? You spend two full paragraphs discussing the issue and then follow that up with comments like “the Pirates took a risk committing to a player with some question marks” and “it’s more than likely Tabata has already reached his ceiling”. As a reader, that says to me “this age business is an important factor” not “this criticism is unfair”.
This is an excellent deal for the Bucs they will pay him 1.5 million more between now and 2016 than the Royals will be paying frenchy over the next two, then they have three club options wher they can choose to pay him in 2017-19 his 29-32 seasons what a 37 year old Ryan howard will make in 2017 alone.
Good points here. Let me try and further explain my logic.
@gorillagogo
I’m trying to find the right words to describe my view here, so I hope this makes sense. I think it is unfair that the age issue is discussed when there is really no evidence suggesting Tabata is liar. However, I feel that the issue is important enough that I had to discuss it in the article, even though it may be unfounded. I definitely see how that can be a confusing viewpoint, but I hope you kind of get what I’m trying to say here.
I also agree that I was probably too pessimistic about the situation as well. I should have expressed more concerns about Tabata’s actual performance rather than focus on his age. While his age would have an effect on how he develops as a player, it’s my own opinion that he’s already reached his ceiling as a player. I just don’t see where the power is going to come from at this point (whether he’s 23 or 25 or whatever). I should have probably expressed that more clearly. I do, however, appreciate that you took the time to write your concerns about the piece in a way that was constructive. I all for having discussions and debates with you guys on here if things can be handled like this. It helps me and pushes me to improve my writing and my analysis.
@Mr wOBAto
I agree 100%. I probably didn’t focus on this enough. It’s a really good deal for the Bucs, even if Tabata “is what he is.”
You do realise that when Matt Holliday was Jose Tabata’s Age he was hitting 276/.375/.391 in AA? that the next year he hit .253/.313/.395 in AA saying a player has hit his ceiling in his age 22 season seems a bit early to me.
The age issue is a well-founded one; those of us who followed him back during his prospect days remember well that rumors were flying around about him heavily even in those days. Smoke may not mean a fire, but he was really the only one of his particular crop of Latin prospects (along with Fernando Martinez and co.) that had that cloud over him routinely.
Nonetheless, I do agree with others that the overall analysis of this contract seems confusing (even leaving aside the player vs. team option issue). If Tabata is 25 or 26, how much of an effect should that really have on his future, aside from limiting his upside? His game is built around a patient plate approach, average defense, and above average base running; that recipe doesn’t seem like one that should fail him any day soon. I don’t see any reason to believe he can’t be a 2 WAR player annually, and improvement doesn’t seem out of the question. To my eyes, this looks like the Pirates locking up a solid regular at a fairly bargain price long term; he may not win them any championships by himself, but he’s the kind of steady regular that can help solidify a lineup. Looks fairly win-win to me.
Why is it more than likely that a former top prospect who is playing in his “Age 22 Season” and has fewer than 800 career plate appearances has reached his ceiling? Tabata’s plate patience has improved this year and his batting average climbing back up after coming off the DL. I would say it is far more likely that Tabata becomes a regular .300 hitter during the lifespan of this deal and puts up an OBP near .400 (making him an elite leadoff hitter, power or no power) than it is for him to have “reached his ceiling.”
There is 1 pre-arbitration year and 3 arbitration years in this deal (at least the guaranteed part). What are the precedents for him in arbitration? How much more would he make in arbitration, if he produces like he has for the entire period? That seems like a big part of it.
The $5 million per win is for FREE AGENTS. He is not a free agent. He is team controlled.
Good thing Jason Heyward isn’t Latin, nobody would believe the guy is 22 if he were from Venezuela or, god forbid, the DR.
@Chris
I think a big problem with your analysis is that the options are team, not player.
That significantly changes the amount of risk the Pirates have taken on here, which is little to none.
Your article seems pessimistic on how good a deal this is for the Pirates when it’s actually a pretty fantastic one. I think that’s why people are jumping down your throat.
There are persistent rumors about Tabata’s age and to not consider them at all would be irresponsible on the Pirates end. The problem is I think you’ve given them too much consideration here.
It would be ridiculous not to mention the age issue. If the Pirates GM has reason to doubt his age, so should any article written about him.
SALE THE VENEZUELAN DMV!!!!
I’d like to reiterate my original question to those who think the age question is legitimate. Can anyone name a Venezuelan player that lied about his age? I can’t think of any, although I suppose there might be one or more out there. Almost all of the players I can think of are from the Dominican, with a few from Cuba. Anyone?
This article mentions no names but states:
“Major League Baseball, which is expanding the oversight of teenage prospects in Venezuela to match the system in the Dominican Republic, announced that seven players there had been declared ineligible to sign with major league organizations for a year because they had lied about their ages.”
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/11/11/sports/baseball/11bats.html
I never said poor Venezuelan kids wouldn’t try to cheat, just that they have stricter record keeping so it’s more difficult for them to get away with it. Case in point, these players were never signed because they were caught as teenagers trying to cheat. Compare that to the dozens of Dominican guys who had lengthy careers before admitting they lied about their age.
And here are their names:
Ruben Alvarado, Fabian Marqua, Osmir Medina, Serio Nieves, Omar Viloria and Jose Ramon Wefer were found to have lied about their ages and in some cases their identities. Erickson Salaya, a seventh Venezuelan player who was found to have lied about his age and identity, was placed on the disqualified list for one year after he agreed to a contract, though MLB did not specify the team.
http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/prospects/2010/11/mlb-declares-seven-venezuelans-ineligible-to-sign-due-to-fraud/
The only details I know from this article are that it’s a six-year deal, and that he won’t make 5MM until at least 2017. From MLB Trade Rumors:
“The guaranteed portion of the deal runs through 2016 and includes contract restructuring for 2011. Tabata will receive a $1MM signing bonus, and his 2011 salary increases to $500K. He will then earn $750K in 2012, $1MM in 2013, $3MM in 2014, $4MM in 2015, and $4.5MM in 2016. The three options total $22.5MM – $6.5MM in 2017, $7.5MM in 2018, and $8.5MM in 2019. The Pirates will have the opportunity to buy out Tabata for $250K in any of the three option years, which brings the outfielder’s guarantee to $15MM. If the Pirates exercise all three options, the contract could be worth up to $37.25MM.”
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2011/08/pirates-extend-jose-tabata.html
http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005/01/pittsburgh-pirates_08.html
Thanks astrostl. You’d think that an article about a player signing a contract would include, you know, the actual terms of the contract. I guess that’s one of the reasons why I usually avoid this author’s work.
Chris:
Have you ever seen him play? Anyone that has – on a consistent basis – would argue with you regarding your opinion that he doesn’t have any power, nor projects to have more in the future. Any guy that hits the ball as hard as he does to the opposite field, including I believe 3 of his 4 HRs, still has room to add more power in terms of SLG or ISO. He may not hit 20-25, but I would be willing to wager that he hits between 15-20 at his peak years.
From a 23-yr old, with above average defense, a great approach at the plate, above average speed…..that 15-20 HR power would make him a pretty elite leadoff hitter. Saying he has reached his ceiling is against the overwhelming evidence of a player that fits his profile and age.
Except for the fact that for every fly ball, he hits 2 1/2 ground balls. There is ZERO chance he’ll ever reach your pie in the sky HR projection if that continues. And as for his “great approach at the plate”, his stats say otherwise. He has never had a BB% over 10% until this year. This year screams fluke to me. Also he’s already had a couple of injuries so he might not age as well as you might think.
Finally, all you Pirate homers conveniently ignored Sitting Curveball’s post to concentrate on a strawman argument. The Pirates are not getting a bargain if Tabata only produces 2 WAR. The pre-arb and arbitration years are always paid at a huge discount something along the lines of 80% pre-arb and 70% in the first year of arbitration.
We arn’t “ignoring” it at all, its still a bargain with those expected discounts. Tabata is already near a 3 WAR player over 162 games (2.1 in 102 last year, 1.6 in 78 this year), that’s $15 million value or at 70% $10.5 million, while we pay him $4 million.
You can’t treat buying out arbitration years the same as a FA WAR value market. It’s not like he was going to be pulling in 8 mil/year in arbitration if he posts 2 WAR seasons.
These are all league minimum and arb years, no? (maybe 1 FA year?)
Walk rates stabilize after 200 PA’s, I believe.
Watch his games – his approach is for real, ever since they put him in the leadoff spot, as opposed to the #2 spot.
I bet you were one of the same guys who said that McCutchen wasn’t going to produce power, either.
Are you a Brewers fan? Are you Jack Moore?
The Pirates’ signing of Tabata seems like a low-risk, medium-reward type of move. I question his ability to develop power. His body has filled out, he has a super-high GB rate and he plays half his games in a park that’s very tough on right-handed batters. Now, a left-fielder without power can still be a valuable player in a lineup that includes power hitters at the other corner spots. The Pirates, unfortunately, do not have that luxury.
I would say that Pedro Alvarez qualifies as a ‘power hitter’ at the corner position, unless you feel that it isn’t insanely premature to label him a bust at age 24 and coming off a pretty successful age-23 rookie season in the majors.
If he simply continues to play around league average, this is a great deal.
Has a team ever been in such a position to have such surplus value from a player simply performing at league average?
6y/15M (2011-2016)
If he performs at league average, PIT gets 35M in surplus value.
If they pick up all 3 years of options (and he performs at league average), PIT gets $34M in surplus value.
Again, I was just struck by how much surplus value they can get just by having him be league average. They don;t need him to turn into an All-Star, they don;t need him to get much better, or anything of the sort. Granted [1] league average and [2] remaining healthy are more difficult than they sound … but often in contracts like these, a player needs to maintain craeer best rates or get a lot better, etc in order to make the contract a good deal for the team. Tabata needs to be healthy and perform at league average.
So you don’t believe teams get a huge discount on their players before they reach free agency?
Brainfart.
The next Barry Bonds