Archive for October, 2011
Andrus, Kinsler Are MLB’s Best DP Combo
Last night it was clear early on that runs would be at a premium for both teams, as Colby Lewis and Jaime Garcia were dealing. In the fifth, the Cards finally mounted a rally, when of all people, Garcia drew a walk against Lewis to put runners at first and second. It was the first time the RedBirds put two runners on base, but the rally ended with the next at-bat thanks to the slick glove work of Elvis Andrus and Ian Kinsler on the rocket hit by Rafael Furcal. The play underscored what Rangers’ fans have come to realize — Andrus and Kinsler are the game’s best double play combo. Read the rest of this entry »
The Brandon McCarthy Saga – Part Two
Special thanks to Brandon McCarthy for taking the time to walk me through his experiences as a pitcher, and providing me with countless insights I never would have discovered researching on my own.
When part one ended, we had covered the final changes McCarthy made to his delivery in Winter Ball, and were about to analyze his 2011 season. It’s safe to say that Oakland seems to have been the right choice, as the end result of two years of hard work and frustration was a league-leading 2.86 FIP built on the strength of a 1.32 BB/9 and 0.58 HR/9 – both by far career lows. He also mixed these with a solid 6.49 K/9 and career high 46.7% ground ball rate. The groundball rate can be explained fairly easily by the increased use of sinkers and cutters*, but it’s not often that we see a pitcher cut his walk rate by 2/3 almost overnight. However, these were the stats that McCarthy was chasing going into 2011.
“I CANNOT (emphasis McCarthy’s) stand the “nerd stat” narrative and the disdain for them, especially considering how valuable they can be… They’re accurate barometers of what you’re actually doing… Those are the numbers that I was chasing after. I wanted lower home runs, I wanted lower walks, more ground balls, and to get to the top of that category the first year after the changes is a nice accomplishment.”
Elvis Andrus And The Inning Of A Lifetime
Elvis Andrus, entering the 9th inning of Game Two, did not have a storied postseason career.
In 28 games and 129 plate appearances prior to facing Jason Motte in the ninth inning of Thursday’s contest, Elvis Andrus owned a .247 batting average, a .318 on-base percentage, and a .274 slugging percentage. Elvis Andrus is not necessarily employed for his bat, but with a -0.48 WPA in at-bats totaling about a fifth of a full season, Andrus had not been either good nor clutch at the plate in these all-important playoff games.
So, naturally, it was Elvis Andrus who sparked the two-run rally which gave the Rangers the Game Two victory.
Contract Crowdsourcing 2011-12: Center Field
October 21, 2011
We continue our contract crowdsourcing today with center fielders. New Man on Campus Jason Roberts provided a summary of the options available as part of this offseason’s center-field free-agent class — a class that’s essentially Grady Sizemore and a group of other players.
Given the paucity of the available center fielders, I’ve included only two polls below. The first is in two parts, asking readers to speculate on whether the Indians will exercise Sizemore’s 2012 option. Based on that choice, the reader will be brought to one of two pages.
The other poll concerns the four other main center-field options outlined by Roberts and asks the reader, simply, to decide which is likely to be most productive in 2012.
While we’ll reserve all contract information until the end of the present series (to avoid bias), data from yesterday’s polling suggests that 56.8% of respondents believe Carlos Beltran will be as misunderstood by his next fanbase as he was by the Mets’ fanbase.
Forms after the jump.
The 2011 Carter-Batista Award
I would like to begin with an apology to Bud Selig and Major League Baseball. I realize that Commissioner Selig does not want any big announcements this week that would take away from the glory of the World Series, but I just can’t help myself. I have too much brewing in the Junk Stat Laboratory, and if I don’t export some of this stuff, a major explosion could be in the works — bits of laptop, brain matter, and SQL code everywhere. So today we begin with what some (read: almost no one) would say is the most “prestigious” of my made-up, junk-stat-based, year-end awards. It recognizes the hitter whose RBI total most exaggerates his actual offensive contribution: the Joe Carter–Tony Batista award.
Free Agent Market: Center Field
Oh, put me in, Coach – I’m ready to play today;
Put me in, Coach – I’m ready to play today;
Look at me, I can be Centerfield
Unfortunately for teams in need of a center fielder, very few free agents can sing along to this 1985 John Fogerty classic with conviction. This is a group of aging, injury prone guys who either never were very good, or now are in steep decline.
Win Probability Graphs Update!
The Win Probability Graphs on the site were updated last night. They’ve been made interactive, so you can scroll over any point to find out the play, score, and win probability of the situation.
If you’re a blogger, you can now easily embed the charts into posts when you click on the little arrow button in the right hand corner of the graph:
Source: FanGraphs
The “Embed Code (Static)” will give you a non-changing version of the chart, but if you use the non static version, the graph will be updated automatically as the game progresses.
Taking Out Jason Motte
Last night, Jason Motte gave up two bloop singles and took the loss, but likely even more frustrating for the Cardinals not-closer closer, he had to watch the runs score from the dugout. After Ian Kinsler dumped one into no man’s land and then Elvis Andrus punched one into shallow right-center field, LaRussa was essentially faced with four decisions:
A. Leave Motte in to face Josh Hamilton, hoping that a non-healthy Hamilton would be overpowered by his fastball, and then have Motte match up against right-handed batters Adrian Beltre and Michael Young.
B. Intentionally walk Hamilton to load the bases, set up the force at home and a potential double play, and give Motte three consecutive right-handed batters to try and retire – Young, Beltre, and Nelson Cruz.
C. Replace Motte with Arthur Rhodes, get the left-on-left match-up against Hamilton, and then go to the bullpen again for another RHP (in this case, Lance Lynn) to go after Young and Beltre.
D. Bring in Rhodes to face Hamilton, but hide Motte somewhere in the field for that one batter so that he could return to face Young and Beltre.
LaRussa chose option C, and of course, it ended up not working out very well for St. Louis. Was there a better option that would have been more likely to help the Cardinals keep the lead, or at least not head to the bottom of the 9th down by a run?