Free Agent Market: Center Field
Oh, put me in, Coach – I’m ready to play today;
Put me in, Coach – I’m ready to play today;
Look at me, I can be Centerfield
Unfortunately for teams in need of a center fielder, very few free agents can sing along to this 1985 John Fogerty classic with conviction. This is a group of aging, injury prone guys who either never were very good, or now are in steep decline.
Grady Sizemore is easily the most interesting player in this group. Assuming the Indians decline his $8.5 million option for 2012, he hits the market after three consecutive injury riddled seasons. Sizemore was once considered one of the best center fielders in baseball. He produced 21.6 WAR from 2006-2008 while missing only 5 games over three full seasons, but in the three seasons since he has produced less than 2.0 WAR and missed 276 games. He had surgery on his elbow and for a sports hernia late in 2009. His 2010 was lost to microfracture surgery on his left knee, and his 2011 was plagued by a second sports hernia and severe bone bruises on his right knee. Sizemore avoided micro fracture surgery on the right knee for now, but it is too early to tell if the arthroscopic procedure he had in October will return his knee to full health. Sizemore is still relatively young – he turns 30 in August – but his durability is obviously a huge question mark at this point. The offensive upside potential here is higher than for anyone on this list, but the knee injuries have likely ended his days as an elite defender.
The fact that Rick Ankiel is still in the major leagues is quite remarkable given his career path. After hitting .264/.337/.506 with 25 home runs for the Cardinals in 2008. Ankiel has been a disappointment at the plate and in the field since. After slugging .535 in 2007 and .506 in 2008, Ankiel hasn’t slugged more than .389 since. Ultimate Zone Rating likes his glove work in 2011 giving him a 6.9 rating in 785 center field innings, but given that 2011 is the only year he has sported a positive UZR, caution is warranted. Poor defensive outfielders with no power and sub .300 wOBAs are not hard to find. Ankiel’s value going forward is limited to fourth outfielder at this point.
Mike Cameron struggled in limited playing time for both the Red Sox and Marlins in 2011. Prior to the past two seasons, Cameron was a solid if not spectacular player. Despite a career .344 wOBA and 112.2 UZR, Cameron has struggled the past two season with injuries and limited plate appearances. At age 39 he probably should not be counted on to play full time, but would make a nice platoon partner or fourth outfielder.
Coco Crisp managed to stay healthy for much of 2011 and a result had his highest number of games played since 2007. With the increased playing time, however, came a decrease in offensive production (.327 wOBA) and declining range in the field (-5.5 UZR). The combination of declining production and a history of health problems does not make Crisp a good candidate for a full-time job in 2012, but he could be a more than adequate fourth outfielder.
Nate McLouth – a former Pirate All-Star – was an unmitigated disaster after being acquired by the Braves in the middle of the 2009 season. He was injured, ineffective, or both for the entirety of the 2010 and 2011. After posting good offensive numbers in 2007 (.364 wOBA, .201 ISO) and 2008 (.369 wOBA, .221), McLouth’s power stroke did not make the move to Altanta. He had an acceptable .342 wOBA in 84 games with the 2009 Braves, but the collapse of his power – ISO .214 before the trade, .162 after – was not a fluke. His 2010 (.283 wOBA, .132 ISO) and 2011 (.306 wOBA, .105 ISO) seasons were absolutely dreadful. Never a standout with the glove, McLouth’s defensive struggles continued in Atlanta as he “produced” a -25.9 UZR over the past two seasons, despite only playing an average of 83 games per season. At 30 years old, McLouth is the second youngest player in this grouping, but all signs point to his premature decline being permanent. His ground ball percentage has increased from 30.8% in 2007 to 47.4% in 2011. His BABIP rebounded from a horrid .221 in 2010 to .270 in 2011, which is close to his career average of .276, but his continued inability to drive the baseball with consistency suggests he may be done. His age and past productivity probably makes him worth a gamble as a fourth outfielder, but at this stage he cannot be counted on as an everyday player.
Other options include Corey Patterson, who has done acceptable glove work over the past few seasons, but is severely limited with the bat. He has not broken 100 in wRC+ since 2003 and has a career slash line of .252/.290/.400. Fourth outfielder is his ceiling at this point. Willie Bloomquist can play multiple positions, but plays none of them well and has a career .297 wOBA. He’ll be lucky to find a job in 2012. David DeJesus has played center field in the past, but should be in a corner now if he is on the field.
I am political science professor at the University of North Carolina. I grew up watching the Braves on TBS and acquired Red Sox fandom during the 1986 World Series. My other hobbies include cooking, good red wine, curing meats, and obsessing over Alabama football---Roll Tide! Follow me on Twitter @ProfJRoberts.
Is Sizemore a viable left field option? Perhaps being part of a left field platoon (with time at DH or the bench to keep him as healthy as possible) will turn a CF with injury risk into a plus left fielder.
Couple guys on that list have Brian Sabean written all over them. Perhaps Sizemore would be worth the risk given a healthy Crisp doesn’t really offer that much offensive production and lacks an arm. A one year deal on Sizemore ($5mil) sounds more affordable than a two year deal ($12mil ) on Crisp even if Sizemore barely touches the field. Giants have Gary Brown waiting in the wings plus some flotsam and jetsam they can plug in.
Get the microfracture surgery Grady! I love my new left knee.
When was the last time signing a free agent center fielder worked out well? Aaron Rowand, Torii Hunter, Andruw Jones, Juan Pierre, and of course the infamous Vernon Wells contract (yeah, he wasn’t even a free agent at the time.) Even one of the greatest center fielders of all time, Griffey, was a major disappointment after he signed a long-term deal.
Don’t forget about Gary Matthew Jr!
The Beltran signing worked out well for the Mets (not in terms of playoffs, but in terms of production/$ and getting an A pitching prospect in return). The Damon signing worked out well for the Sox, although that was almost a decade ago.
Nothing else is jumping out at me, although there just aren’t very many good CF to begin with.
Ah, how could I forget Lil’ Sarge? Pretty amazing that the Angels signed not one but TWO of those terrible contracts and traded for a third. But yeah, the Beltran signing went pretty well (one infamous strikeout notwithstanding.)
Funny you mentioned Damon. His contract with the Sox was pretty good, but his contract with the Yankees was definitely an overpay (though not a disaster like some of the other guys on the list.) Clearly even the best center fielders are only good for one big contract.
Marlon Byrd has been a decent value/performance signing for the Cubs. He hasn’t been great at anything, but he’s played a decent defensive CF and accrued 6.4 WAR over 2 seasons. One year to go, and he’s pretty much just being paid to be a 1.5-2 win player. He’ll keep the seat warm for Brett Jackson and then shift into the 4th OF role until he’s traded to a desperate contender late next July for some low- to mid-level prospect.
Pretty much the exact opposite of what Hendry was known for: inoffensive and innocuous.
I didn’t think Hunter’s contract has been bad, really. He’s productive and he put up 4, 3.5, and 2.5 WAR since he signed (and the drop from last year to this year was almost 100% positional actually- if he was playing CF he’d still be at 3.5 WAR if he had the same defense as last year).
Pierre also doesn’t belong there in my book because he did EXACTLY what he was doing before he got signed. They just for some reason changed their mind about the value of that skill set. Which was correct, but still- not exactly a bust.
I’d say that Hunter is a relative success and Byrd was not bad either. With that said, CF seems more like a young man’s game usually. Developing within makes a lot of sense. Though with that said, if the Red Sox still want to trade Ellsbury, this is the ideal time to do it… 😉
“Other options include Corey Patterson, who has done acceptable glove work over the past few seasons,”
Anyone watching Bluejays games this season would argue with that statement.
I think your very much underselling Crisp. With the info we have I would much rather have him than any of these guys. Unlike Sizemore with the knee issues and the lack of stolen bases there is no reason to think that Crisps UZR for 2011 is accurate at all. Also his BABIP was down for the year even though his batted ball data shows that it should have been much better and given his steals and triples there is no reason to think that he cant leg it out to first or in the outfield as fast as he used to.
And assuming that Sizemores doesn’t regain his speed he is just a platoon left fielder and without his speed his upside is severely limited too.
As a Giants fan, this list makes me sick to my stomach.
Which is why Sabean shouldn’t bother with a FA CF’er? Let Torres/Christian/Peguero/even Ross battle it out as placeholder for Gary Brown. I see him directing his overpay to Rollins or Beltran.
As a Royals fan, I have actually seen some of these guys play.
1) Ankiel is terrible, and he’s fragile.
2) Crisp isn’t very good, and he’s fragile.
3) DeJesus is washed up, and he’s fragile.
4) Bloomquist cannot play center field.
5) I hate that damn song.
Ankiel’s bat is weak, but he definitely played above-average center field for the Nationals this year, and his arm really is something to behold. That said, the chances of such play carrying over to next year seems slim, and I think it’s telling the Nationals are searching for a real center fielder and that it’s not even a guarantee they want to keep him around as a fourth outfielder.
IMO, Ankiel should start throwing off a mound this off-season. Get a pitching mechanic and fine tune things and give it a shot.
I’m not joking. I think it’s worth trying.
If I were him I’d contact Cliff Lee and see what he worked on the minors that turned his career around.
I’m not suggesting that he’ll become the next Lee, I’m just looking at what can keep Ankiel in baseball and what might get him a contrract.
Rajai Davis might also be available since the Jays picked up Rasmus. He was an ok player with the A’s…He might make a decent stopgap for a rebuilding type team.
Joey Gathright is available cheap.
No good center fielders available? You surprise me. It’s the toughest position to fill. The good ones hang around forever. It’s not like LF where a team can always find a hitter who still has an OF glove in his locker. Heck the Yankees lived with Yogi in LF at the end of his career, or see Burrell on the 2010 Giants. Ankiel would make a decent platoon RF, with his arm, playing only against right handed pitching. If the NYY trade Swisher, a Jones/Ankiel platoon would not be so bad.
Beltran in his short stint with the Giants can still hit and would play a better
than average centerfield, he is just way too expensive.
I think there’s actually going to be sizable demand for Sizemore. Not so much a long term deal, but he should be able to pick and choose his spot for a one year Carlos Pena/Lance Berkman aiming-for-a-bounceback thing.
I’d love to see the Cubs sign him. He could play CF until Jackson is ready, then slide into one of the corners.