2012 Bill James Handbook Projections
The 2012 Bill James Handbook Projections are now available in the player pages. Big thanks to Baseball Info Solutions for allowing us to publish these for the fourth straight year.
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
What’s the run environment for these projections? I’d like to see if given players are expected to improve or decline from last year, but I presume the BJ projections will make it look as if every hitter is going to improve (or decline less than they really will) because they project more runs into the system than there were last year. Is there any easy way to adjust the projected wOBAs so that they map onto last year’s run environment? Say, just subtract x number of points from the projected wOBA?
I don’t see why his projections would change the run environment from what it was in 2011.
Related question: are his projections based on the assumption that player’s will be on the same teams, or are they for a park/league-neutral run environment? Anyone know?
And is there also a constant that I can subtract from SPs’ projected ERAs to approximate what they would look like when standardized for last year’s run environment?
I believe the projections are based on the player’s current team and league.