2012 ZiPS Projections!
The 2012 ZiPS Projections courtesy of Baseball Think Factory and Dan Szymborski are now available in the sortable projections pages and on the player pages!
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
The 2012 ZiPS Projections courtesy of Baseball Think Factory and Dan Szymborski are now available in the sortable projections pages and on the player pages!
David Appelman is the creator of FanGraphs.
AWESOME
First observation – Neil Walker and Taylor Green’s projections are identical.
Are these projecting playing time based on performance or actual depth chart competition? For example, Brad Emaus is projected to play 114 games, but I have a hard time seeing that with Pedroia in the way. Just curious how that playing time is projected.
So far as I understand it, ZiPS doesn’t predict MLB playing time. Essentially, it just looks at how many professional games (i.e. across all levels) a guy has played and uses that to inform the projections for the next season.
Szymborski has a better explanation here, though: http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_projections_spreadsheets_v._1.
I get that there’s utility in projecting the ML equivalency which seems to be what this does, but for those of us intending to use this for roto purposes, it’s really not that useful as far as I can see because we have to make assumptions about expecting playing time and everything needs to be adjusted accordingly. FWIW, the last few years I’ve exported the fan projections (because these factor in expected playing time), made adjustments where I think the crowd got it wrong, and then valued/ranked based on my league’s scoring and position eligibility by comparing expected output to the replacement level for our league.
Why would Bautista be projected to play in only 136 games and get only 461 ABs, 574 PAs?
I believe that ZiPS uses 3 years of data (maybe 4?) so it’s including 113 games/404 PAs from 2009 in the projection, the handful of games he missed last year, as well I’d guess just age related factors (more expected nagging injuuries etc)
Why is ZiPS so pessimistic on Hamilton’s wOBA? I can see reduced ABs, as ZiPS does, but his projected wOBA, a rate stat, is 30 points worse than his career average.
Don’t know if Dan will read these comments, but a big thanks for continuing to provide these to Fangraphs. Much appreciated (and used).
Anyone know the RotoChamp methodology? There are some interesting divergences between it and ZIPS.
The worst. Cano barring injury won’t be hitting under 300 anyyyyy time soon. These projections are always so negative and usually fall short.