One of these is Don Kelly’s hand.

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Reminder: Arbitration Deadline Imminent
2. SCOUT Leaderboards: Australian Baseball League
3. Prospecting: Catching Up with John Sickels, Part I

Reminder: Arbitration Deadline Imminent
The deadline for teams and arbitration-eligible players to exchange figures is noon ET today. A lot of players remain unsigned — probably many of them on the team you spend all your time thinking about. (Not Don Kelly, however. He settled with the Tigers this morning, so don’t worry.) MLB Trade Rumors is pretty excellent at tracking this sort of thing.

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According to Diario Libre, the Chicago Cubs appear to be the leading in the chase to acquire Cuban defector and free agent outfielder Yoenis Cespedes. The intriguing center fielder spoke with the media on Monday night, sharing this unexpected tidbit:

“Of all the teams who have come, the most interested in me has been the Chicago Cubs,” Cespedes said Monday at the Quisqueya Stadium… “I dined a few times with them and talked a lot, but that does not mean it is certain I will sign with them. I’m just telling it like it is, they have shown more interest than others.”

(translated by Google Chrome and me, Brad)

If I had snuck into your house this morning and grabbed you by the shoulders before you reached a news device and asked you: “What team is making the biggest play for Cespedes right now?” I’m fairly confident you would have answered, “The Miami Marlins; I’m calling the police.”

But, nay, it is Chicago apparently. Much of this offseason, the Cubs have been playing the quintessential flirt, giggling as they trot around the country, driving prices up for all the free agents they don’t really want.

Well, maybe this Cespedes business is for real. And if it is, does it makes sense?
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By any statistical measure, Pirates pitching phenom Jameson Taillon’s 2011 was a success. Strong strikeout rates, low walk rates and less than a hit per inning leaves both Pittsburgh and prospect fans in general excited about his developing into the organization’s first top flight starter since Doug Drabek nearly two decades ago (Gerrit Cole has some say in this as well).

Did Taillon impress in person? Most definitely, but the young right-hander scouted quite differently than the numbers indicate. Taillon was actually quite raw and requires considerable refinement even though the numbers say otherwise.

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Episode 125
Jeff Sullivan is the editor of SB Nation’s wildly popular Seattle Mariner blog, Lookout Landing. In this episode, we discuss the most obvious thing — i.e. the trade that sent Michael Pineda to New York in exchange for sorta, kinda catching prospect Jesus Montero. We also celebrate life and liberty — inadvertently, at least.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 27 min. play time.)

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It seemed like only a matter of time until Seth Smith was shipped out of Colorado. The Rockies have depth in the outfield and the demand for a player of Smith’s caliber was there. A suitor finally stepped forward Monday, as the Oakland Athletics acquired Smith in exchange for starting pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman.

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As Jim Breen discussed earlier, the news that the Texas Rangers have had talks with Prince Fielder raises all sorts of interesting possibilities. For 2012, a Rangers team with Fielder at first base would pose a formidable offensive threat, given that first was one of their few holes when they were batting in 2011. A Rangers batting order featuring Fielder batting behind Josh Hamilton would be frightening for opposing pitchers, indeed. This much is obvious, but such speculation raises further questions.

Hamilton himself is currently set to become a free agent after the 2012 season, after all, and has recently given a Pujols-esque condition that he will not enter negotiations for an extension once Spring Training begins. Hamilton has had a very good run with the Rangers, of course, winning the MVP with a monster season in 2010 and leading the Rangers to their first of two straight World Series appearances. It is hard to say what sort of payroll the Rangers are budgeting for given all the new cable money coming in. The team seems determined to sign Yu Darvish, too. Perhaps they could afford long-term extensions for both Fielder and Hamilton on top of Darvish. But to engage in a bit of (non-unique) speculation, if they can only afford to either sign Fielder to extend Hamilton, which should they choose?

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The Rockies offseason of marginalizing their homegrown players continued unabated this afternoon, when they dealt Seth Smith to the A’s for pitchers Guillermo Moscoso and Josh Outman, neither of whom are likely to be a good fit for the club long-term. What it does give the Rockies is more fresh fish to add to their starting rotation competition.

Last season, 131 pitchers threw at least 120 innings in the Majors. One-hundred and thirty of them had a GB/FB of at least 0.67. Moscoso was the 131st, checking in with a league-lowing total of 0.48. His Minor League numbers show that this wasn’t a fluke either:
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After a successful comeback season with the New York Yankees in 2011, Bartolo Colon is headed west. Reports surfaced last week that the Arizona Diamondbacks and Oakland Athletics were interested in the 38-year-old right-hander. On Sunday, the A’s were announced as the mystery team that secured his services for the 2012 season.

Colon experienced a career-renaissance with the Yankees after signing a minor-league contract in the winter. Despite scoffs from most of the baseball world when the signing was announced, he was largely (no pun intended) effective in New York, posting a 3.83 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, and 3.60 SIERA. He shouldered his highest workload since 2005 by tossing 164.1 innings in 29 appearances. Paid just under a million dollar in Salary, he fell just shy of the 3 WAR mark, making him one of the more valuable signings of the year.

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While there are still some intriguing pitchers left on the free agent market — Roy Oswalt chief among them — the free agent pool for hitters is rapidly drying up. Prince Fielder is still on the market, but outside of him, there is little offense to be found outside of a trade. Casey Kotchman, Derrek Lee, Johnny Damon, Vladimir Guerrero, Brad Hawpe — all these guys have some sort of offensive upside, but not much.

As a result of this dearth of offense, one player is beginning to get some attention on the rumor mill: Carlos Pena. Pena looks like the best remaining free agent option for teams looking to add offense (again, in the non-Prince-Fielder crowd), as he hit 28 home runs and posted a .354 wOBA last season with the Cubs. He may be getting older, but there’s still plenty of pop in his bat.

There was wide speculation that the Yankees could sign Pena to fill their hole at DH, but according to a recent report from Jon Heyman, it seems as though they may not have the payroll space to sign him. But there is still a wide number of teams interested in Pena: the Blue Jays, Brewers, Indians, Mariners, Nationals, Orioles, Pirates, Rangers, and Rays (according to MLBTR, at least).

Despite Pena being the best remaining hitter on the market, though, there are some reasons teams should be wary about guaranteeing him too much money: his BABIP, power production, and platoon splits.

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There might just be one split worth worrying about on Michael Pineda’s player page.

There, among a bunch of splits that don’t have much predictive value, is one set of numbers that holds a little possibility for pain for the new potential star in pinstripes. It’s not the monthly splits — no sample of any size has shown those splits to be predictive — and Dave Cameron did a great job pointing out why even the home and away splits haven’t really shown a predictive pattern for Pineda.

But there might just be one split worth unpacking.

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