Archive for January, 2012

Minor League Leaderboard Context

A couple days ago, Dave Appelman introduced an amazing new feature to FanGraphs: Minor League Leaderboards. This new feature will allow us track all of our favorite prospects, and learn the names of budding stars we otherwise would have missed. While the Minor League Leaderboard is an incredible tool, it is helpful, if not imperative, to take into account a player’s age and playing level. If I told you that a player had a triple-slash-line of .331/.405/.664 you might think he is a stud, but if he’s 28 and in Triple-A, it is safe to assume that the player is no prospect (there are of course exceptions).

Last season the average age of a rookie was 24.5 in Major League Baseball. This is a helpful starting point when evaluating Triple-A players. The average age of players in Triple-A last year was 28, and the vast majority of players in Triple-A are older than their Major League Rookie counterparts. While there are some 25 year olds in Triple-A that will make impacts on their respective teams, few significantly older should be considered prospects.

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FAN Projection Targets: AL West Second Basemen

Wendy and Matt have already covered the NL West and AL Central, so let’s continue to show that we here at FanGraphs are not subject to East Coast bias and look at the other set of second baseman on the left coast: the AL West. Due to the presence of the A’s and Mariners, the AL West does not generally project as a strong offensive division, but second base is the exception with two All-Stars, a potential star, and the younger brother of an All-Star second baseman. Let us know how you think these players will perform next year.

Texas has the most well established player in the division in Ian Kinsler, a player with a strong walk rate and excellent power for his position. Last season, he posted the 4th highest WAR total in the American League on the strength of a .370 wOBA. Pretty impressive considering his .243 BABIP was 39 points below his career average. The big factor was that he eclipsed 650 plate appearances for the first time in his career. No one has ever doubted Kinsler’s talent level – for his career he has posted 4.64 WAR per 650 plate appearances – just his durability. This is the big question going into 2012, along with whether he can maintain his power while simultaneously raising his BABIP. It may be a coincidence, but the two seasons in which he has posted an ISO above .220, he has had BABIP’s of .241 and .243. All of his other seasons have resulted in ISO’s below .200, and BABIP’s ranging from .279 to .334. Read the rest of this entry »


Eno Sarris FanGraphs Chat

Window opens at 12:15, I’ll be there at 12:30!


Adam Jones, Unfinished Product

In the weekly Wednesday chat, one of the popular subjects was the Braves pursuit of Baltimore outfielder Adam Jones. According to reports, Atlanta has been trying to land Jones for the better part of a few months, using Jair Jurrjens and Martin Prado as the bait, while the Orioles demand a lot more in return for their center fielder. A segment of Braves fans seem to be offended by the asking price for Jones, believing that the Orioles demands for a guy with a .319 OBP is unwarranted.

But, here’s the thing with trading for a guy like Adam Jones – you aren’t paying for what he has been, you’re paying for what he could be.

The 2008-2011 version of Adam Jones has been a slightly above average player, not the star he was projected to be as a prospect. As has been noted by Atlanta fans many times, his low on base percentage has held him back from being an offensive force, and he’s shown few signs of improving his plate discipline to date. Additionally, UZR hasn’t exactly loved his defense in center field, so he’s topped out at +2.9 WAR in his best season to date.

If that’s all Adam Jones was, then Braves fans would be right that Baltimore was asking too much for his final two years of team control. However, the Orioles see potential for significant improvement from their center fielder, and history backs up their point of view.

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Mariners Add Some Cheap Upside With Iwakuma

The Mariners are one of the better run-prevention teams in baseball, and yesterday they added to a pitching staff that allowed the fourth fewest runs (675) in the American League last year by agreeing to a one-year contract with Hisashi Iwakuma. The 30-year-old right-hander will earn just a $1.5 million base salary in 2012, with another $3.4 million available in incentives tied to starts and innings pitched.

This deal comes one year after the Athletics won Iwakuma’s negotiating rights with a $19.1 million bid through the posting process, though the two sides failed to reach an agreement and the righty ended up back in Japan before becoming an international free agent this winter. Oakland was thinking something along the lines of $3-5 million per year while Iwakuma was said to be seeking Barry Zito money. The two sides never got close, so he returned to the Rakuten Golden Eagles on a one-year, $3.6 million contract.

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Offseason Notes, With a Picture of Mark Gubicza

Table of Contents
Here’s the table of contents for today’s edition of Offseason Notes.

1. Assorted Headlines
2. Prospecting: John Sickels’ Top-20 List for Cleveland
3. Crowdsourcing Broadcasters: Los Angeles Angels Television

Assorted Headlines
All the nerd that’s fit to print.

Seattle Signs Japanese Right-Hander Iwakuma
The Seattle Mariners have signed 30-year-old Japanese right-hander Hisashi Iwakuma to a one-year, $1.5 million contract with a potential $3.4 million possible in incentives, MLB.com’s Greg Johns reports. Iwakuma is the player with whom Oakland won the rights to negotiate last year but failed to reach an agreement. Per his player page at Patrick Newman’s NPB Tracker, Iwakuma appears to throw six pitches with some frequency. (Mike Axisa provides a more thorough look at Iwakuma today at the site.)

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Hanley Ramirez to 3B

When the Marlins signed Jose Reyes to a six-year, $106M contract, much of the attention shifted to the Marlins’ former shortstop, Hanley Ramirez. How would he respond to the free agent signing and the news that he would be shifting to third base?

Multiple reports began to surface:

  • Ramirez voiced displeasure over potential move to third base and demanded a trade.

Most recently, Hanley Ramirez will reportedly accept his move to third base and is excited to be a part of the 2012 Miami Marlins. Whether that is simply public relations posturing or his true attitude toward the positional change, nobody knows, but the move will improve the Marlins big league squad as a whole next season.

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Snapshots from the 1980s: Dave Duncan

The third installment of this series — short unpublished interviews from three years ago, focusing on the 1980s — features Dave Duncan. A big-league catcher for 11 seasons, Duncan went on to become the pitching coach for the Oakland A’s from 1986 to 1995. He currently serves in that role for the St. Louis Cardinals.

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Duncan, on what made the A’s pitching staffs of the late ‘80s so good: “Balance. It was a well-balanced staff with good starting pitching. We had Rick Honeycutt, a good left-handed reliever, and we had a great closer in Dennis Eckersely. In middle relief we had guys like Gene Nelson. It was just a really well-balanced pitching staff.

“At times it has been said about the Yankees that they play a six-inning game. There have been periods where their bullpen was strong enough that if they were leading after six, they were pretty much going to win the game. The pitching staff we had in ’88 and ’89 was a lot like that. We had depth and balance to where if we had the lead we had a good chance of winning.”

On Dave Stewart: “Stewart was good because he had good stuff, including a unique pitch in his split-finger. He was a fierce competitor. He never had a game where he wasn’t up for it — either mentally or physically. I think that all of your good pitchers are that way. Sometimes that separates really good pitchers from guys who could be really good, but never get there because they’re not able to do the things — mentally or physically — that allow them to not let starts get away from them.”

On catching Catfish Hunter and Jim Palmer: “What can you say about them? They were great pitchers. They personified exactly what I’m talking about when I say great physical ability and the right mental makeup, and mental approach, to pitching. And they were competitors — really good competitors.”

On Terry Steinbach and Carlton Fisk: “They were both very conscientious about taking each pitcher and knowing how to use what that pitcher was capable of doing effectively. They also didn’t have off days mentally. They were into the game when they played.”

On pitching in the 1980s: “I don’t see a lot of difference in how pitchers were used, although I think pitching changes. I think the 1980s was a period of time where a lot of guys were starting to throw split-fingers again. That was a very effective pitch and it was coming back — the split-finger, or forkball.”

On Billy Martin and pitcher abuse: “He was an exception. In the 1970s, it was common for guys to throw a lot more pitches, and pitch a lot more innings. But by the 1980s I think that everyone had become really aware of pitch counts and usage. They were pretty protective of pitchers. For your top-of-the-rotation guys, 230 or 240 innings was pretty common.”

On being a pitching coach: “I think that you never stop learning. I’ve learned a lot from pitchers. I’ve learned a lot from other pitching coaches. I’ve learned from bullpen coaches. And a lot of what you do is have a common-sense approach to solving problems. Not every pitcher has a different style, but most every pitcher has something that’s unique to him. A big part of being a pitching coach is recognizing what a pitcher does well, and honing it.”


Why Are the Yankees Cheap: Savvy or Remorse?

The Yankees have raised a lot of eyebrows this winter by standing pat on pitching and sending unambiguous signals that their unwillingness to spend money is predicated on wanting to avoid the luxury tax. A Yankee source went so far as to tell ESPN’s Wallace Matthews that the team was staying away from Hiroki Kuroda because, “We simply don’t have the money to pay him.” I guess that depends on what the meaning of “have” is. But I think a better translation is that the Yankees are tired of all their years of spending stupid money, paying the price through luxury tax and literally watching their dollars be spent by their 29 competitors. (In an earlier version of this story, I fell into the common fallacy of believing that luxury tax money went into the revenue sharing pool. It does not.) The New York Times’ Tyler Kepner surmises that they might be saving up for Cole Hamels or Matt Cain next year; Brien at It’s About the Money Stupid thinks that they’re making an emotional overreaction to their history of overspending. Of course, it could be both.

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Sean Coyle And the Unfair Dustin Pedroia Comps

Boston Red Sox minor league second baseman Sean Coyle is a solid minor league prospect which is actually pretty rare for a player of his stature. In fact, in three years spent Scouting the Sally, only a handful of prospects have been worthy of more than a cursory look (Jose Altuve – HOU, Leury Garcia – TEX, Wilfredo Tovar – NYM) which speaks volumes about Coyle as a baseball player. However, as kind as it may seem on the surface to compare the best second baseman in the Red Sox system to the best second baseman in baseball – organization mate Dustin Pedroia – it’s pretty unfair to both players.

Video after the jump

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